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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #68,341
  • Jul 24, 2013 1:04pm Jul 24, 2013 1:04pm
Quoting BoringIsGood
I'll be really surprised if euro doesn't print an outside reversal today.
That's what I'm rootin for.
Come on almighty dollar... show your spunk.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,342
  • Jul 24, 2013 2:04pm Jul 24, 2013 2:04pm
Quoting redteamgo
Q has been bought up by huge brass ball from limit down to up 10ish cents
Red,
That limit down meant something today. Look at the markets in general. It feels like a reversal (Continuation of USD bull trend)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,343
  • Jul 24, 2013 2:07pm Jul 24, 2013 2:07pm
Quoting chess king
{quote} no .. I had planned to sell 3207/50 ... I'll stick to the plan. I miss this opportunity to sell more high ... we'll see how it goes. tomorrow..!?
let's see if it runs south,, ..!?
Now BE...the 77 .. and 63 .. have to give help..
  • #68,344
  • Jul 24, 2013 2:14pm Jul 24, 2013 2:14pm
Quoting chess king
{quote} let's see if it runs south,, ..!? Now BE...the 77 .. and 63 .. have to give help..
I refer back to the bearish butterfly. The initial target should be the red dashed falling trend line (approx 3130/40). After that, hopefully it goes south after a dead cat bounce.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdh1.png Size: 99 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,345
  • Jul 24, 2013 2:17pm Jul 24, 2013 2:17pm
Gidday Punters

Closed out a couple off longs. EUR/US

Hopefully its run out of steam

First short under water 131.6 131 TP

Would be nice to catch a ride down to lower levels

see what happens tonight:nerd:
  • #68,346
  • Jul 24, 2013 2:27pm Jul 24, 2013 2:27pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I refer back to the bearish butterfly. The initial target should be the red dashed falling trend line (approx 3130/40). After that, hopefully it goes south after a dead cat bounce. {image}

I think 3131 has great possibilities to be achieved .... but it is never 100% sure .. I give it 50/50...
  • #68,347
  • Jul 24, 2013 2:50pm Jul 24, 2013 2:50pm
Quoting chess king
{quote} I think 3131 has great possibilities to be achieved .... but it is never 100% sure .. I give it 50/50...
50/50 is pretty much the average lately, so it's good enough for me
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,348
  • Jul 24, 2013 4:08pm Jul 24, 2013 4:08pm
Quoting BoringIsGood
I'll be really surprised if euro doesn't print an outside reversal today.
Doesn't look good. Euro has a nasty habit of not making things too easy.
  • #68,349
  • Jul 24, 2013 4:22pm Jul 24, 2013 4:22pm
Quoting BoringIsGood
{quote} Doesn't look good. Euro has a nasty habit of not making things too easy.
Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,350
  • Jul 24, 2013 4:27pm Jul 24, 2013 4:27pm
July is not being nice to me. Here we are almost at the end of the month and I have produced nothing.

Well, as I said last week, nothing significant will happen until the last week of the month when we get showered with a whole slew of US data, the FOMC rate statement, ECB press conference and NFP

and of course let's not forget month end flows which are expected to be USD positive... at least that is what the consensus states.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,351
  • Jul 24, 2013 5:18pm Jul 24, 2013 5:18pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Some nice USD bullish action is developing now. Not sure what the fundamental catalyst is other than proof that the US is starting to inflate it's housing bubble in a meaningful way, but it was certainly due from a technical perspective. On E/U, I would....
Today was the first day since 10th of July (that surreal BB testimony and 400 pip EU day) when many pairs started to move on its own technicals, as before it looked like the only currency that's really moving is dollar and it was almost no difference wich pair you choose as it was eihter long or short the same dollar.
And techncials say, that UJ should go for 101.80 and maybe (not confirmed yet) for 102.xx before either breaking hihger or continuing weekly correction, NZD/USD still points to 7630's (as long as 8140's in tact), before that 7760's to test.., GBP has unfinished buisness at 5450's (before that it could retrace till 5150's) GBPJPY is going for 154.70's after which is abit of unknown (retracement maybe..), USDCAD will re-check 0240's eventually, EUR will boucne either against 2990's low for 270's/3310 (or from other side - reject from 270's/3310 to test 2990's) but test of 2820's before making HH on D/W/M is also on the cards but to be proved/disproved later..
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  • #68,352
  • Jul 24, 2013 7:21pm Jul 24, 2013 7:21pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Red, That limit down meant something today. Look at the markets in general. It feels like a reversal (Continuation of USD bull trend)
hard to say. i bet there were more than a couple people that didn't survive the past 2 days. fortunately, i started stepping to the sidelines more or less when i started playing around with FX (hence posting here) because i thought the spreads were way too lofty to get involved w/. as a result, i am one of those survivors. pretty crazy. and, as it turned out, good timing with exiting the euro. I think JPM or ING called for a euro sell today as well.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #68,353
  • Jul 24, 2013 7:27pm Jul 24, 2013 7:27pm
Quoting redteamgo
Qx soybeans. Need huge balls to trade this. Never seen anything like this {image}
Am I reading the prices on that chart correctly, did soybeans lose approximately HALF (47%) of it's per bushel value in a day?
  • #68,354
  • Jul 24, 2013 7:30pm Jul 24, 2013 7:30pm
Its the spread but yes. Like I said, I suspect more than a few ppl did not survive today. It has been a historic week
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #68,355
  • Edited 7:43pm Jul 24, 2013 7:33pm | Edited 7:43pm
Quoting redteamgo
Its the spread but yes. Like I said, I suspect more than a few ppl did not survive today. It has been a historic week
Wowzers. Then I really do wonder how much Rogers lost. Last I heard he was uber bullish on ags.

Was it unique to soybeans or did the entire ag space get hammered?

Never mind, I found an article listing the damage.
  • #68,356
  • Jul 24, 2013 8:01pm Jul 24, 2013 8:01pm
it was mostly soy related ags. aug meal went synthetically double limit down, aug/dec limit down, aug limit down, soy oil was pretty firm. aug beans limit down. the soybean butterflys also went limit down but pulled up a bit. new crop is sitting.

corn is much better off, "only" shed 13 cents on UZ. new crop spreads are sitting.

i cant run historical spreads in my platform but all summer, the front spread has been incredible to bullspread after first notice. i have had an amazing year so i can't bitch too much.
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Click to Enlarge Name: qux.jpg Size: 223 KB
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #68,357
  • Jul 25, 2013 4:08am Jul 25, 2013 4:08am
Quoting PipTrapper
July is not being nice to me. Here we are almost at the end of the month and I have produced nothing. Well, as I said last week, nothing significant will happen until the last week of the month when we get showered with a whole slew of US data, the FOMC rate statement, ECB press conference and NFP and of course let's not forget month end flows which are expected to be USD positive... at least that is what the consensus states.
Hi PT,
I started joining to your longs at AUDNZD yesterday and continue opening it today (should be better if I start today )
And I hope it will retrace from 1.14 at least to 1.17 within this/next week (TP2 - 1.2, mostly based on GBPAUD cha-cha move)
As always your view is very appretiate (how far could it go down, plans to add more longs at this point)
  • #68,358
  • Jul 25, 2013 4:44am Jul 25, 2013 4:44am
Quoting magicgate
{quote} Hi PT, I started joining to your longs at AUDNZD yesterday and continue opening it today (should be better if I start today ) And I hope it will retrace from 1.14 at least to 1.17 within this/next week (TP2 - 1.2, mostly based on GBPAUD cha-cha move) As always your view is very appretiate (how far could it go down, plans to add more longs at this point)
I am hoping for a good bounce at 1.13, but in the end I think there is potential for this pair to go to 1.10
I am still holding my long positions because they are small and do not pose a threat to my equity or my sanity. Anyway, it's going to take a lot of patience to get out of this one.
It is certainly not the best trade decision I have ever taken
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,359
  • Jul 25, 2013 5:47am Jul 25, 2013 5:47am
Waiting UJ at 99.60 to buy, pound at 5170's, NZD at 0.8060 to sell
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  • #68,360
  • Jul 25, 2013 5:55am Jul 25, 2013 5:55am
Quoting Likerty
Waiting UJ at 99.60 to buy, pound at 5170's, NZD at 0.8060 to sell
Yeah, I like usd/jpy longs at these levels too.
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