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USD/CAD

  • #3,841
  • Jul 23, 2013 10:51pm Jul 23, 2013 10:51pm
Quoting Erebus
{quote} Wednesday, July, 23 ???? Confused me but then I am easy to confuse
@EREBUS:
Thanks for the heads up - sorry for the confusion. My bad.
  • #3,842
  • Jul 24, 2013 9:24am Jul 24, 2013 9:24am
Though there was a probability of bullish, surprisingly sell was on and I got some of it:
Here is my trade taken yesterday:
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  • #3,843
  • Jul 24, 2013 10:00am Jul 24, 2013 10:00am
My take on USDCAD daily. What are your comments?

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Never let success get to your head because the market will punish you
  • #3,844
  • Jul 24, 2013 10:51am Jul 24, 2013 10:51am
Quoting reggiecjh
My take on USDCAD daily. What are your comments? {image}

@Reggiecjh:

Your analysis from your chart is a very good one.

Here's some more information that will help. Today's Options expiry at 102.60 was not breached which also coincides with your upward sloping trendline. Now this should put a smile on your face, tomorrows 10am EASTERN Options expiry levels for Thursday, July 25, are as follows:

1.0300 resistance

1.0250 support

1.0235 support

1.0215 support


Now how you are to interpret this is that, more and more layers of support to restrict the bears from falling is being put in. So if the bears try to advance to 1.0260 it will have to deal with 1.0250 then 1.0235 then 1.0215 to get to the next psychological level which is 1.0200. That's alot of hurdles.

The bears right now are looking at selling all rallys towards 1.0300, 1.0312 1.0350 but between now at the time of writing this, 11:50am Eastern, July 24, the chances of the single options expiry barrier at 1.0300 for tomorrow, July 25, being broken is highly possible.

Lets look at it - if for every rally the bears sell into it but have a hard time getting past the new Options layers set for tomorrow, Thursday, July 25 1.0250, 1.0235 and 1.0215 - not to mention 1.0260 that it did not break this morning, the bears will start to think, I better take my profits and wait for the next set up to go short. At this point the support is being strengthened and then buyers start to come into the market more and more.

Hope that helps

Lets see what happens
  • #3,845
  • Jul 24, 2013 10:57am Jul 24, 2013 10:57am
Quoting HDA
{quote} @Reggiecjh: Your analysis from your chart is a very good one. Here's some more information that will help. Today's Options expiry at 102.60 was not breached which also coincides with your upward sloping trendline. Now this should put a smile on your face, tomorrows 10am EASTERN Options expiry levels for Thursday, July 25, are as follows: 1.0300 resistance 1.0250 support 1.0235 support 1.0215 support Now how you are to interpret this is that, more and more layers of support to restrict the bears from falling is being put in. So if the bears...
nice call on 026 area last night. for what it's worth, longer term chart.
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  • #3,846
  • Jul 24, 2013 10:59am Jul 24, 2013 10:59am
There you have it - 1.0300 was taken out and the bears will sell it. - lets watch and see as the try to take out 1.0260 now - what happens. if they cant get to it, then more buyers are going to enter the market - so the bulls will now then target 1.0312 and then 1.0350 etc etc etc
  • #3,847
  • Jul 24, 2013 11:19am Jul 24, 2013 11:19am
If we are to witness any hard thrust upwards, those are the BEARS taking profits - The key to playing this game is learning to buy when the institutional players buy and sell when the institutional players sell. Its there money that moves the market and create the strong layers of support and resistance.

They all talk to each other - so the retail traders money is taken from them as easy as taking candy from a baby. Hence the term MUPPETS that was coined at Goldman and Sachs.

Its a game, and as long as you have the correct information you can easily profit from it. You will be able to enter trades with little or no risk.

If you read my post last night, I said the buy orders are 9 pips above the Options Expiry level at 1.0269 - look at the risk on that trade if you had bought it.

Take care - Lets see what happens
  • #3,848
  • Jul 24, 2013 11:23am Jul 24, 2013 11:23am
Quoting pkimnyc
{quote} nice call on 026 area last night. for what it's worth, longer term chart. {image}
@PKIMNYC: We are definately going up, but its a patience trade - taking profits and re-entering to go up again - but we are going up
  • #3,849
  • Jul 24, 2013 11:53am Jul 24, 2013 11:53am
Quoting HDA
{quote} @PKIMNYC: We are definately going up, but its a patience trade - taking profits and re-entering to go up again - but we are going up
We are on the same page. More opportunities on the way. A lot of em.
  • #3,850
  • Jul 24, 2013 11:58am Jul 24, 2013 11:58am
.... long usd/xxx , short xxx/usd and gold
not euphoria follower
  • #3,851
  • Jul 24, 2013 12:42pm Jul 24, 2013 12:42pm
Here is the beauty of this, the bears have large orders to go short at 1.0350 and those orders are attracting the market to get them filled - so we are going to 1.0350 - now when we get there and the orders are filled - the BUY STOPS or Stop loss Order for the 1.0350 entry is at 1.0375 -

So the bears sell at 1.0350 and risk 25pips with a stop loss order at 1.0375 which is really a buy order to get them out of the sell trade they made if they are wrong.

So what in turn happens, Sell orders at 1.0350 gets filled, support levels continue to rise and now the buy orders at 1.0375 are now targeted, because the sell orders were so large so the stop loss orders will also be large.

As the bears continue to take profit, buyer continue to enter the market, the market moves closer to the stop loss orders at 1.0375 and then when that is hit Resistance at 1.0380 is taken out heading us to 1.0400 psychological level to the target 1.0445.

The market should then breathe a bit, it will then be obvious to the bears that the correction/ retracement is over and they will start exiting more short trades while simultaneously more and more buyers are entering the market.

So keep an eye on all the levels -
  • #3,852
  • Jul 24, 2013 12:53pm Jul 24, 2013 12:53pm
Hi HDA,

Great stuff! Can please share some source (repository/ebook) to get more such insights for us newbies. I am highly impressed by your knowledge and analysis. Keep up the good work.

Regards,
Wherever Market Goes, I follow and return back after getting my 10 Pips.
  • #3,853
  • Jul 24, 2013 2:44pm Jul 24, 2013 2:44pm
Quoting madaneeraj
Hi HDA, Great stuff! Can please share some source (repository/ebook) to get more such insights for us newbies. I am highly impressed by your knowledge and analysis. Keep up the good work. Regards,
@Madaneeraj:

Its a lot of formal training, time, experience, commitment, discipline, mistakes, losses, not giving up, trading style, subscription news feeds and an institutional platform. You eventually over time if you stay committed, learn your own lessons and create your own trading style.

It doesn't happen over night and you will have to blow through accounts. Its part of the learning process. Part of the learning is losing. That's why you must only use money you can afford to lose and be prepared to lose it learning.

There is a learning curve and we all have to go through it and only the committed ones, stick it out and last.

But I also invested in myself and paid thousands of dollars for the Formal Training - that is sitting in a classroom and getting one on one. Most people try to learn through short cuts but just like a University Education, you pay thousands of dollars for a Bachelors or Masters Degree and then you use that certificate to go look for a job. The man who didn't pay for the University Degree, but went to the University and sat in the classes and learnt beside the man who has paid, will not get the certificate to go and look for a job, but he would have gathered the knowledge.

Many persons don't want to pay for formal training and expect to benefit from getting bits and pieces here and there. Will that work, yes, but it takes a lot longer and its a lot more painful.

But that aside. its not for everyone and nothing is wrong with anyone trying it out to get their feet wet and taking it from there. But if you are serious, you should invest in your education formally or the best way that works for you.

I'm not here advertising for anyone, so you'll have to do your own research on suitable learning institutes
  • #3,854
  • Jul 24, 2013 5:29pm Jul 24, 2013 5:29pm
Quoting HDA
{quote} @Madaneeraj: Its a lot of formal training, time, experience, commitment, discipline, mistakes, losses, not giving up, trading style, subscription news feeds and an institutional platform. You eventually over time if you stay committed, learn your own lessons and create your own trading style. It doesn't happen over night and you will have to blow through accounts. Its part of the learning process. Part of the learning is losing. That's why you must only use money you can afford to lose and be prepared to lose it learning. There is a learning...
WORD.
Never let success get to your head because the market will punish you
  • #3,855
  • Jul 24, 2013 7:13pm Jul 24, 2013 7:13pm
The current market talk is that the rally is going to continue and that we are going to 1.0350 and that very strong resistance is at 1.0445.

When we get to 1.0350 the bears are really going to try very hard to push the market back down, because heavy sell orders are there waiting to be triggered.

Here's the good news, support at the bottom is very very very very strong so as we go into Friday watch what happens

Because I swing trade I will hold my trade and at each resistance level, dump a couple (yards) but still hold the initial yard entry from support at 1.0269. When I dump a couple (yards) at each resistance, I then place a buy order at the next support level below depending on the amount of yard orders in terms of volume at that support level which will give some indication as to wether that support level will hold.

In other words, based on the amount of yard orders at a support or resistance level it gives you and idea as to how strong the support area is. But there are alot of tricks in the trade. Some traders place fake orders to attract buyer or sellers in an attempt to try and get the market to move in the direction they want it to go.

So if it is announced that there is a BILLON DOLLAR options expiry level payout, naturally it will attract alot of attention and the market will move to it. That is legitimate. Now that same principle is applied when setting market orders. BEAR traders will want to pull the CAD down (for example) by placing fake large buy orders below to attract traders and the market may move to it, but when it gets to that level the orders are removed, so the intended effect of pulling the market down is achieve. That's how BULL traps are set up and vice versa for BEAR traps.

So lets see what happens. - we are going to 1.0350 - lets see what happens there with the BEARS.
  • #3,856
  • Jul 24, 2013 8:53pm Jul 24, 2013 8:53pm
Slow week this week. Durable goods due out tomorrow morning. Usd/Cad on trendline support. Potential catalyst for the Usd to resume bullishness. Next week is full of major USD news. Maybe in the making of another leg higher for the USD.
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Trade what you see, not what you think!
  • #3,857
  • Jul 24, 2013 9:14pm Jul 24, 2013 9:14pm
Quoting HDA
The current market talk is that the rally is going to continue and that we are going to 1.0350 and that very strong resistance is at 1.0445. When we get to 1.0350 the bears are really going to try very hard to push the market back down, because heavy sell orders are there waiting to be triggered. Here's the good news, support at the bottom is very very very very strong so as we go into Friday watch what happens Because I swing trade I will hold my trade and at each resistance level, dump a couple (yards) but still hold the initial yard entry...
glad to see you're back to ff. stick around if you can. i was beginning to feel lonely after your departure.
  • #3,858
  • Jul 25, 2013 8:14am Jul 25, 2013 8:14am
Quoting HDA
There you have it - 1.0300 was taken out and the bears will sell it. - lets watch and see as the try to take out 1.0260 now - what happens. if they cant get to it, then more buyers are going to enter the market - so the bulls will now then target 1.0312 and then 1.0350 etc etc etc
There you have it. The bears attempt as stated to try and take out 1.0260. As stated if it doesn't get there more bulls will enter the market. The Options expiry for today at 10am Eastern, levels are 1.0250, 1.0235 and 1.0215 and those levels will restricted the decline of the market.

So buyers on top of buyers are camped out waiting and entering to go long.

This is why as I have stated when trading the USD/CAD - you take profit at resistance and prepare to enter again at support.

As 1.0260 holds, the bulls will now target 1.0350

You are now witnessing how much patience it takes to trade the USD/CAD, but once you have the trend direction correct you will always have many many many opportunities to re-enter as long as you know the levels to watch.

We are heading for 1.0350 which the BEARS are going to fight again to push the market down. That is resistance, you take profit again and wait for the set up to go long again.

So sit tight and never think you missed the opportunity, you will always get a change to re-enter with the USD/CAD - I call it the SECOND CHANCE or FORGIVING PAIR
  • #3,859
  • Jul 25, 2013 8:16am Jul 25, 2013 8:16am
Quoting pkimnyc
{quote} glad to see you're back to ff. stick around if you can. i was beginning to feel lonely after your departure.
@PKIMNYC:

Im not really sticking around - just wanted to see what changes if any has FF made so that Im not a dinasour each time I pop in as to the changes if there are any
  • #3,860
  • Jul 25, 2013 8:29am Jul 25, 2013 8:29am
Quoting reggiecjh
My take on USDCAD daily. What are your comments?
unfortunately, that kind of "oversold" can last for years... "oversold" & "overbought" don't work.
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