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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #68,301
  • Jul 24, 2013 2:52am Jul 24, 2013 2:52am
One thing about PMIs we should all understand.
These are surveys of purchasing managers and do not reflect actual economic figures.
Much like consumer and business confidence indices, they only reflect opinions of those who are "supposed" to know what is coming.
So, in other words, they are no better than us with our crystal balls.
The only difference is that the markets react to what these purchasing managers think and they don't give a toss what we think
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,302
  • Jul 24, 2013 2:58am Jul 24, 2013 2:58am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} And UJ wants to fly..
No surprise there. Market slow played pocket Abe's.
Attached Image
  • #68,303
  • Jul 24, 2013 3:11am Jul 24, 2013 3:11am
Quoting BoringIsGood
{quote} No surprise there. Market slow played pocket Abe's. {image}
I like playing poker

Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,304
  • Edited 3:31am Jul 24, 2013 3:14am | Edited 3:31am
Quoting BoringIsGood
{quote} No surprise there. Market slow played pocket Abe's. {image}
But its just a corrective movement inside the bigger corrective movement inside even bigger bull trend. I see it inversely correlating with EU movements quite nicely.
EU already tested M/Q resistance levels at 3350/80's twice, so third approach very likely will end up with another HH on M/W charts after which it should proceed to its never-ending downtrend toghether with QE tapering (which coincides nicely from perspective of the timing).
So, ultimately I'm looking for UJ testing middle of its yearly swing range, and EU making its last swan song with monthly HH..
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_USD_JPY_Daily_c.png Size: 51 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_Daily_c.png Size: 64 KB
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  • #68,305
  • Jul 24, 2013 3:21am Jul 24, 2013 3:21am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} But its just a corrective movement inside the bigger corrective movement inside even bigger bull trend. I see it inversely correlating with EU movements quite nicely. EU already tested M/Q resistance levels at 3350/80's twice, so third approach very likely will end up with another HH on M/W charts after which it should proceed to its never-ending downtrend toghether with QE tapering .


Yes, I agree. I've been avoiding the yen crosses lately because they've been so choppy.

I'm not seeing that. My wave counts on every time frame from monthly on down point to a healthy move lower in the euro. I think this is just the last gasp for the euro before it gets a major smack down. I don't see it getting above 1.34 for a long, long time.

Quick post script: There is an outside chance on my charts that price could violently spike above 1.34 before the downtrend starts. But it would just be a stop run that would be short lived.
  • #68,306
  • Jul 24, 2013 3:43am Jul 24, 2013 3:43am
For today, if it manages to retrace to 2220/10 before going higher - it could be a nice long trade for 3270's against todays lows. 331x is also in view..
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  • #68,307
  • Jul 24, 2013 3:43am Jul 24, 2013 3:43am
I've got 1.5358 as the daily pivot on cable and 1.5390 as the R1. Gotta love accurate pivots....
  • #68,308
  • Jul 24, 2013 4:04am Jul 24, 2013 4:04am
Quoting Likerty
For today, if it manages to retrace to 2220/10 before going higher - it could be a nice long trade for 3270's against todays lows. 331x is also in view..
That would be awesome
Unfortunately you meant to type 3220/10
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,309
  • Jul 24, 2013 4:05am Jul 24, 2013 4:05am
Quoting BoringIsGood
I've got 1.5358 as the daily pivot on cable and 1.5390 as the R1. Gotta love accurate pivots....
They don't always line up like that, but when they do, it's worth a mention
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,310
  • Edited 4:33am Jul 24, 2013 4:17am | Edited 4:33am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} That would be awesome Unfortunately you meant to type 3220/10


I'm thinking that I will skip long sceanrios for EU today..
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  • #68,311
  • Jul 24, 2013 5:35am Jul 24, 2013 5:35am
Quoting lumesh
{quote} tech wise 3270's (give or take a few) is definitely a level to watch. i attached a chart as well...dunno why redteamgo sees nothing important between 3200-3400 {image}
that corresponds to 3290 and is minor at best. this thing hasnt rallied a nickel to turn around at some pre-major resistance, funds will be sure of that. think about it. in fact that may be a final dip to add at. everything else has already been invalidated from previously tests. but these things are subjective, we'll see how it plays out. ive had a hot hand lately but that means nothing.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #68,312
  • Edited 5:49am Jul 24, 2013 5:39am | Edited 5:49am
however once 3290 is broken... that is where taking profit gets tricky. with that major 3400 level, every base tail of ascending highs will be a hurdle that could fail miserably which is why id rather walk. there will be huge resistance at 3400. i may stagger an exit if i add again but its impossible to say right now. it depends on how the market feels on that day. and for the record, euro has no business at even 3100+ imo but trade not invest. im even willing to be a new short at 3400 and risk up to 3450.

hopefully.. by then, bean and corn spreads will correct enough that i can lever way up just in time for end of summer vacation
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #68,313
  • Jul 24, 2013 5:49am Jul 24, 2013 5:49am
Trying sneaky EU short here at 3239...
UCHF is at support, UJ also looking for continuation higher..
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  • #68,314
  • Jul 24, 2013 5:53am Jul 24, 2013 5:53am
Quoting Likerty
Trying sneaky EU short here at 3239... UCHF is at support, UJ also looking for continuation higher..
I've seen you post analysis on loonie before Likerty. How's that pair look to you at the moment?
  • #68,315
  • Jul 24, 2013 5:57am Jul 24, 2013 5:57am
Quoting BoringIsGood
{quote} I've seen you post analysis on loonie before Likerty. How's that pair look to you at the moment?
waiting at 0240 to buy. Profit targets will depend on what it will do before that.. 0270's is a profit taking area which may produce a bounce towards 0440/380 but it doesnt have to, so I'm not betting at current level..
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  • #68,316
  • Jul 24, 2013 6:06am Jul 24, 2013 6:06am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} waiting at 0240 to buy. Profit targets will depend on what it will do before that.. 0270's is a profit taking area which may produce a bounce towards 0440/380 but it doesnt have to, so I'm not betting at current level..
Pretty similar views here, except I decided to take the plunge and enter around 1.0280. Thanks for sharing.
  • #68,317
  • Jul 24, 2013 6:13am Jul 24, 2013 6:13am
Quoting BoringIsGood
{quote} Pretty similar views here, except I decided to take the plunge and enter around 1.0280. Thanks for sharing.
on longer term, if EU is really targeting HH on monthly, than UCAD could dip once more below parity and bounce from 0.9970's (which didnt happened in May, when I missed my long awaited entry) to target 1.0770's and above..
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  • #68,318
  • Jul 24, 2013 6:56am Jul 24, 2013 6:56am
Quoting Likerty
Trying sneaky EU short here at 3239...
EU starting to look like a coin toss with NY and US data underway later..
SL sits at 249
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  • #68,319
  • Jul 24, 2013 7:31am Jul 24, 2013 7:31am
nice maneuver! Just Beautiful...
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  • #68,320
  • Jul 24, 2013 7:54am Jul 24, 2013 7:54am
added at 3220. it could do as low as 3205

moment of truth right here.

avg 3135 on 3 contracts... 50 tick trailing stop added. beware the pre-NY open fade.
Any prices quoted are futures
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