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1% Trading System - Continued

  • #61
  • Jul 23, 2013 11:27pm Jul 23, 2013 11:27pm
Quoting Eurusdd
I can see you trade only EURUSD. We could work something out.
No, I also trade few other pairs, but indeed, Eur is my favorite.

We can definitely work something out.............. How many wives you have?
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #62
  • Edited 3:56am Jul 25, 2013 3:44am | Edited 3:56am
WTF

This is what I call market noise. SL three pips away from the high got hit. Scratching my head.
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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #63
  • Jul 25, 2013 4:17am Jul 25, 2013 4:17am
Re-entered nth time. I think this time it will be a long wait before target is hit.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #64
  • Jul 25, 2013 11:17pm Jul 25, 2013 11:17pm
Quoting Chicky
Re-entered nth time. I think this time it will be a long wait before target is hit.
It is giving me very hard time. We are still in a strong selling zone. Shorting.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #65
  • Jul 25, 2013 11:32pm Jul 25, 2013 11:32pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} It is giving me very hard time. We are still in a strong selling zone. Shorting.
Pa is like a train, it stops only at train stations. 1.3250 is one station, other two are 1.3425 and 1.2950. I am going to 1.2950 but don't know if I am sitting on 1.3425 bound train. Another 50 or 60 pips will tell.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #66
  • Aug 6, 2013 11:43pm Aug 6, 2013 11:43pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Pa is like a train, it stops only at train stations. 1.3250 is one station, other two are 1.3425 and 1.2950. I am going to 1.2950 but don't know if I am sitting on 1.3425 bound train. Another 50 or 60 pips will tell.
Ok. We saw two major s/r levels in the past few day. Let me post a daily chart to show what happend there. As mentioned earlier, pa does not like to spend too much time in these major support/resistance areas. It either quickly bounces off or slices through these zones. One has to watch for only a few things to speculate whether pa will bounce or break such a level. But please do remember that any speculation, no matter how logical it could be, can turn wrong with development of a new situation or how market players assess impact of an event. For example, soon after the US housing bubble surfaced, USD appreciated beyond imagination of many. If this was another event of lesser impact, logic would have prevailed and USD would have had only a dent in its graph. But with an econmic jolt of such a magnitude, many were worried about the future USD supply and honoring their USD commitments, so it became dearer instead of going down.

Now lets say fundamental factors indicate a currency should appreciate. The most logical thing is that it will start rising, then some consolidation for profit-taking/pyramiding. It will start going up again. This will happen repeatedly until pa gets to a major resistance. A million dollar question is: What will happen at this major resistance? As mentioned above in this post, one of these two things:
1. A bounce, or
2. A clear break

Let's add one more to this list of two:
3. Reversal (I normally do not differentiate between a bounce and a reversal, both are one and the same for my play)

The simple way to speculate what happens here (subject to the limitation mentioned above) is to weigh how significant is the event that brought the pa up to this point. That means in order to break a major level, fundamentals need to be stronger than the level. One reason, I always take chance of a bounce in major support/resistance levels or PPZs.

1.3333 is one such key level. The question is what and how strong are the fundamentals? If pa breaks this level, how far it will travel? How much fuel it is carrying?

I will now be working on the chart, but after a smoke.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #67
  • Aug 7, 2013 12:29am Aug 7, 2013 12:29am
Quoting Chicky
Re-entered nth time. I think this time it will be a long wait before target is hit.
Hi, just saw that post (quoted) and thought I should mention it could have been news come out and spread widened so it appears you shouldn't have been hit but in reality it did trip it. FWIW

jt
"Even if you fall down face first, you still went forward."
  • #68
  • Aug 7, 2013 1:03am Aug 7, 2013 1:03am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Ok. We saw two major s/r levels in the past few day. Let me post a daily chart to show what happend there. As mentioned earlier, pa does not like to spend too much time in these major support/resistance areas. It either quickly bounces off or slices through these zones. One has to watch for only a few things to speculate whether pa will bounce or break such a level. But please do remember that any speculation, no matter how logical it could be, can turn wrong with development of a new situation or how market players assess impact of an event....
Here is the chart.
It may not be very clear but a careful look can't miss Price Pivot Zones marked with red arrows. You may see price stays for a very short time at these points but a lot of activity near and between these zones. The last ppz it broke (marked with crossed red arrow) once became a battle ground and there is unusual activity at this ppz. Now see where I have shorted. It seems a right place to take a short chance, but if you look at my trade explorer, I am extremely high leveraged. Even if I get it right, this leverage can kill my account in matter of minutes. I am highly leveraged with no sl only for demonstration purposes. There is no point in repeatedly playing Russian Roulette, you cannot survive........... Always live as if it is last day of your life, some day you will be right.
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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #69
  • Aug 7, 2013 1:20am Aug 7, 2013 1:20am
Quoting juicyt
{quote} Hi, just saw that post (quoted) and thought I should mention it could have been news come out and spread widened so it appears you shouldn't have been hit but in reality it did trip it. FWIW jt
I lost that trade, and several others in a row soon after that

I do not worry about spread widening or things like that, if your r:r is crazy, you can afford many such happenings. Once I get a good entry and position survives, keep my sls away from market noise, not before. Keep on adding and then take a huge loss (sometimes a full 1% or even 2%), repeat. But if i manage to get a move from end to end, it compensates for all my suffering.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #70
  • Sep 15, 2013 12:12am Sep 15, 2013 12:12am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Here is the chart. It may not be very clear but a careful look can't miss Price Pivot Zones marked with red arrows. You may see price stays for a very short time at these points but a lot of activity near and between these zones. The last ppz it broke (marked with crossed red arrow) once became a battle ground and there is unusual activity at this ppz. Now see where I have shorted. It seems a right place to take a short chance, but if you look at my trade explorer, I am extremely high...
I don't remember if I wrote the above post before the account touched $12,000 or after, but it is currently just above $1,400. We started this demo round $7,500 or so and this account is now 80% down. Again a reminder how highly leveraged trades affect an account. The question is if one is taking risk not more than 1% at a time, how many pips should be the sl and tp?

1:10 risk:reward ratio is very attractive, but do you think our sls will survive the market noise with any of these sls and tps?

SL TP
1 Pip 10 Pips
5 50
10 100
25 250
50 500
100 1,000

If not or if we are not sure, what to do?

..... will be back after a smoke
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #71
  • Sep 15, 2013 12:24am Sep 15, 2013 12:24am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} I don't remember if I wrote the above post before the account touched $12,000 or after, but it is currently just above $1,400. We started this demo round $7,500 or so and this account is now 80% down. Again a reminder how highly leveraged trades affect an account. The question is if one is taking risk not more than 1% at a time, how many pips should be the sl and tp? 1:10 risk:reward ratio is very attractive, but do you think our sls will survive the market noise with any of these sls and tps? SL TP 1 Pip 10 Pips 5 50 10 100 25 250 50 500...
Ok. I am back.

Since 1:10 is a very good ratio anything from 10 pip sl to 30 pip sl is workable because of these two facts:

1. One can get 8 or 9 chances of being stopped out, only one or two winners will result in BE or profit
2. Our tp will not be too far, that will be 100 to 300 pips.

Now the question is where to enter and where to exit?

Exit is not a problem. Our exit will be 10x the sl, no matter what level it is.

The question remaining is where to enter and in which direction based on what?

Writing the answer, will take few minutes.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #72
  • Sep 15, 2013 12:32am Sep 15, 2013 12:32am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Ok. I am back. Since 1:10 is a very good ratio anything from 10 pip sl to 30 pip sl is workable because of these two facts: 1. One can get 8 or 9 chances of being stopped out, only one or two winners will result in BE or profit 2. Our tp will not be too far, that will be 100 to 300 pips. Now the question is where to enter and where to exit? Exit is not a problem. Our exit will be 10x the sl, no matter what level it is. The question remaining is where to enter and in which direction based on what? Writing the answer, will take few minutes....
No matter what fundamental or technicals one follows, nothing is assured in this market and therefore consider this market where price randomly moves. I don't say fundamentals or technicals don't work, at least in probablistic way. What I am saying is that you CONSIDER market movement as random. You assume this on the basis of fact that we live in an ever changing world and any major or minor event moves the market in minutes at least for the number of pips profit/loss we are looking at, that is 100 to 300 pips.

Now how one can decide where and in which direction to enter so that our sl has greater chance of survival until tp is hit.

You read this I am writing more....
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #73
  • Sep 15, 2013 12:42am Sep 15, 2013 12:42am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} No matter what fundamental or technicals one follows, nothing is assured in this market and therefore consider this market where price randomly moves. I don't say fundamentals or technicals don't work, at least in probablistic way. What I am saying is that you CONSIDER market movement as random. You assume this on the basis of fact that we live in an ever changing world and any major or minor event moves the market in minutes at least for the number of pips profit/loss we are looking at, that is 100 to 300 pips. Now how one can decide where...
There are many ways to take a position. Please do remember that taking a position is based on several factors, including:
1. Level of risk one is taking
2. Number of pips sl and tp
3. One's scheme of Money Management (How you are going to use your risk-money and avaible margin)
4. What time of the year, week or session it is and what is on the news horizon
5. How market lately moved
6. Where is pa on your technicals
7. Market's current volatility, etc etc.

I mentioned this only to let you know taking a trade is not based on if pa has broken a trendline or touched a fib or some news is out, it requires little more than that.

.......writing more
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #74
  • Sep 15, 2013 12:53am Sep 15, 2013 12:53am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} There are many ways to take a position. Please do remember that taking a position is based on several factors, including: 1. Level of risk one is taking 2. Number of pips sl and tp 3. One's scheme of Money Management (How you are going to use your risk-money and avaible margin) 4. What time of the year, week or session it is and what is on the news horizon 5. How market lately moved 6. Where is pa on your technicals 7. Market's current volatility, etc etc. I mentioned this only to let you know taking a trade is not based on if pa has broken...
There are certain methods people use to make an entry. These are countless, but the most common are:

1. In the direction of a trend when it has reached 50% retrace
2. Opposite direction at a horizontal Support/Reistance, and if those supports/resistances are broken in the direction of the move
3. Bounce from trendlines or break of a trendline or channel
4. Pin bars, candle closures or other similar pa studies
5. Previous weekly, monthly, weekly, daily open, close, high, lows, etc
6. Weekend gaps
7. Double top / bottom, H&S, etc patterns
7. Pivot levels, etc. etc.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #75
  • Sep 15, 2013 1:01am Sep 15, 2013 1:01am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} There are certain methods people use to make an entry. These are countless, but the most common are: 1. In the direction of a trend when it has reached 50% retrace 2. Opposite direction at a horizontal Support/Reistance, and if those supports/resistances are broken in the direction of the move 3. Bounce from trendlines or break of a trendline or channel 4. Pin bars, candle closures or other similar pa studies 5. Previous weekly, monthly, weekly, daily open, close, high, lows, etc 6. Weekend gaps 7. Double top / bottom, H&S, etc patterns...
The best entry is buying at the bottom and selling at the top. However, since we are assuming this market is random, there is no way we could know if we have achieved a top or a bottom, plus, our sl is only 10 to 30 pips and catching a mega trend requires sl much wider than that.

Personally, I like to trade either longer term or play bounces for few pips. But here I am suggesting two methods to make an entry and how to set the sl and tp.

One more smoke and coffee, will be back.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #76
  • Sep 15, 2013 1:18am Sep 15, 2013 1:18am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} The best entry is buying at the bottom and selling at the top. However, since we are assuming this market is random, there is no way we could know if we have achieved a top or a bottom, plus, our sl is only 10 to 30 pips and catching a mega trend requires sl much wider than that. Personally, I like to trade either longer term or play bounces for few pips. But here I am suggesting two methods to make an entry and how to set the sl and tp. One more smoke and coffee, will be back.
Homework before taking a trade: Take a piece of toilet paper (perferably unused) and write down every level near current pa that has any significance, that is, weekly/monthly/prevous day's high, low, open, close; 50% fib, PPz, etc. etc. Don't worry if these are too many levels, you wont be using much of a toilet paper. Arrange these levels in order and mark your chart so that you know where these levels are. We do this only to make sure we enter at a right place.

Method 1:
Wait for a break, when it happens, go against the move with a very small sl when it touches one of the key levels you have. Take profit at 1:1 to 1:3 r:r. You may also like to let a small portion of the trade running

Methos 2:
I will be back.............. I take these breaks because many times my reply disappears before I could post.
en
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #77
  • Sep 15, 2013 1:33am Sep 15, 2013 1:33am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Homework before taking a trade: Take a piece of toilet paper (perferably unused) and write down every level near current pa that has any significance, that is, weekly/monthly/prevous day's high, low, open, close; 50% fib, PPz, etc. etc. Don't worry if these are too many levels, you wont be using much of a toilet paper. Arrange these levels in order and mark your chart so that you know where these levels are. We do this only to make sure we enter at a right place. Method 1: Wait for a break, when it happens, go against the move with a very...
Method 2:

This method comes from Jesse Livermore with some variation that I have made.

Remove all the lines you marked on your chart and wait for the break. Don't do nothing, just watch the break. Now watch the retrace. Don't do nothing just watch the retrace. When retrace is confirmed, refer to you toilet paper (now it is used because you have written on it). Try to find out what key level this break has broken. If you watch your historic charts, will notice that pa moves several (sometimes hundreds of) pips to break a key level. Normally this level is somewhere right at the middle of your 15m to 1H break candle and great chances are that it is a round number. Now use it as your support/resistance and enter for a long walk with 1:10 r:r.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #78
  • Sep 15, 2013 2:01am Sep 15, 2013 2:01am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Method 2: This method comes from Jesse Livermore with some variation that I have made. Remove all the lines you marked on your chart and wait for the break. Don't do nothing, just watch the break. Now watch the retrace. Don't do nothing just watch the retrace. When retrace is confirmed, refer to you toilet paper (now it is used because you have written on it). Try to find out what key level this break has broken. If you watch your historic charts, will notice that pa moves several (sometimes hundreds of) pips to break a key level. Normally...
Here is an example of method 2. The green dotted line is a 50% fib and the key level broken is 1.3000
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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #79
  • Sep 15, 2013 4:45pm Sep 15, 2013 4:45pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Method 2: This method comes from Jesse Livermore with some variation that I have made. Remove all the lines you marked on your chart and wait for the break. Don't do nothing, just watch the break. Now watch the retrace. Don't do nothing just watch the retrace. When retrace is confirmed, refer to you toilet paper (now it is used because you have written on it). Try to find out what key level this break has broken. If you watch your historic charts, will notice that pa moves several (sometimes hundreds of) pips to break a key level. Normally...
This is about 1.3333
It has been broken
Watch pa and go long near 1.3333 if you want to test method #2
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #80
  • Sep 16, 2013 1:06pm Sep 16, 2013 1:06pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} This is about 1.3333 It has been broken Watch pa and go long near 1.3333 if you want to test method #2
Have you bought or not
i got it around 41
The Thief of Wall Street
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