Attachments: Trendline Break (The Only System You Need)

Trendline Break (The Only System You Need)

#341
Jun 25, 2013 5:53pm Jun 25, 2013 5:53pm

prestij
| Joined May 2013 | Status: Trader | 14 Posts

Quoting Soundz

Disliked

Just read the entire thread, and its great info! The more people that post and share examples the more we can all learn and fine tune for ourselves. Questions- 1. What is a goond indi that can help minimize bad trades? I see people posting RSI, Divergence, fibo retrace and a CCI 50 or 9, and 200MA with a 5MA. Can anyone clear this up on a " how to use" them correctly? 2. Some people posted about Pivots, is there indi that will do it for you in a clear manner? 3. When drawing the trendline on a higher time frame, like the day to the hour to the...

Ignored

1-) it depends on you. but, indicators can also cause to minimize good trades as well, be aware of that. i think using no indicator or mixing some indicators best way. i prefer no indicator.

2-) no idea

3-) i dont adjust. if i draw trendline on 4h chart, i enter trades only by looking 4h chart. otherwise it will be confused. but this may also depending on you. you have to experience best-worst ways.

this was one of the easiest trade. i know talking about past charts is easy, but chance of these types of trades are very high always... trendline break+ re-test that line again.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: altinfirsatkac.png
Size: 66 KB

#342
Jun 30, 2013 5:58pm Jun 30, 2013 5:58pm

Soundz
| Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 42 Posts

Looks good.

How effective are trend line breaks for you? I assume you account for other things?

#343
Jul 3, 2013 7:26am Jul 3, 2013 7:26am

prestij
| Joined May 2013 | Status: Trader | 14 Posts

eur/usd same senario. trendline break + now it retests the line.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: eurtrendbreak.png
Size: 62 KB

#344
Jul 3, 2013 7:28am Jul 3, 2013 7:28am

prestij
| Joined May 2013 | Status: Trader | 14 Posts

Quoting Soundz

Disliked

Looks good. How effective are trend line breaks for you? I assume you account for other things?

Ignored

well my statistics like winning ratio: %41
average profit / average loss: 2.8

not very well but it worths to work on trend line break more.

#345
Jul 3, 2013 9:54pm Jul 3, 2013 9:54pm

puppypippy
| Joined Feb 2010 | Status: Trader | 252 Posts

Quoting prestij

Disliked

{quote} well my statistics like winning ratio: %41 average profit / average loss: 2.8 not very well but it worths to work on trend line break more.

Ignored

How are you going with this Prestij? I personally like to see 3 touches of a TL before I consider it valid. Looking at your post number 341 that trend line you drew could have been drawn many times, in many places. Is that picture simply the last time you drew it after moving it so many times? Waiting for 3 touches will avoid that problem to some extent. Also as the author sais he looks for a candle pattern at the breakout. I like to see an engulfing candle at the breakout.

#346
Jul 7, 2013 4:05pm Jul 7, 2013 4:05pm

prestij
| Joined May 2013 | Status: Trader | 14 Posts

Quoting puppypippy

Disliked

{quote} How are you going with this Prestij? I personally like to see 3 touches of a TL before I consider it valid. Looking at your post number 341 that trend line you drew could have been drawn many times, in many places. Is that picture simply the last time you drew it after moving it so many times? Waiting for 3 touches will avoid that problem to some extent. Alss o as the author sais he looks for a candle pattern at the breakout. I like to see an engulfing candle at the breakout.

Ignored

sorry for my late answer. not only 341 please look at my post 343. it hit sl. it was perfect setup for me, but it hit sl. i couldnt make a system that works +%60 winning ratio when r/r ratio is around 3.

dont consider spread and swap. lets open trades with unconsciously. put 30 pips sl and 60 pips tp. in the long run u will get %33.3 winning ratio. if u consider supports+resistance, winning ratio should increase like %40. if u both consider supports+resistance+trendline winning ratio should be +%40. even if u choose wrong support+resistance at the end your account will be 0 profit but also 0 loss. then why most people loose money.

i believe that the system you use is not important. if you can use right money management, even if you are fool to not know resistance or support, you will not loose money.

and yes if you use 3 touches and looking candle pattern, your winning ratio should be +%50 and you will make more money than me. i am not as patiance as you are. but it is enough for me if price looks like to listen trendline or trendline break or resistance or whatever.

i added my friday trade. after 2 candle, i think price consider the trendline i draw. it is not perfect trade setup but it is enough for me. and i open trade in third candle with my restrict money management rule. i never get out the trade if i dont earn 2 x stoploss level. i hope these helps.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: gbpusdfriday.png
Size: 57 KB

#347
Jul 7, 2013 5:40pm Jul 7, 2013 5:40pm

cuchuflito
Joined Nov 2008 | Status: Trader | 2,141 Posts

I will try this:
1 Wait for Close below trendline.
2 Look for 8 stochastic to be OB (otherwise wait till fast line crosses down from OB) it´s a good filter.! Original stop: is last, obvious Pivot above entry.
3 Trail stochastic 13 (on Pivot of course) to give the trade more room to expand.
4 Exit on Close above the trend line , which would be a Long Signal (if you want to trade also Long)
5 No TP, to catch those homeruns here and there, that do marvels to your account.
6 Trade only UK/ US sessions.

#348
Jul 7, 2013 6:47pm Jul 7, 2013 6:47pm

MicksMoney
| Joined Jun 2010 | Status: Pip Hunter | 45 Posts

Quoting Xaron

Disliked

{quote} You're kidding, mhh? This works in both directions.

Ignored

It does "work" but as people are pointing out, it seems that "drops" are faster and longer than "pops.' There's no reason you can't trade both ways, but success in anything in life does come down to focusing on the most efficient, effective methods, so there is some wisdom in focusing on the shorts.

Myself there are times I am bored and just "want" to trade, which is a bad habit. So I will go bull. Other times it seems most of the charts are in uptrends, again, might look for a bearish retracement in a bull trend to trade. It was so much easier when the USD had its long drawn out bear trend, because that is what most of the big pairs are based on.

I don't mean to contradict anyone, just adding my perspective on what was said in the thread.

Edit: Also just had another thought after reading a few more posts as to why I prefer shorts.

Shorts seem to "retest" the trend line break or even s/r break a lot less often. It goes back to psychology. People panic or at least get nervous when they see a long white candle. Bullish breaks seem to always retest, or at least more than 50% of the time.

#349
Jul 14, 2013 2:51am Jul 14, 2013 2:51am

shinewel
| Joined Jun 2012 | Status: Trader | 190 Posts

hi, can someone enlighten me? if i want to place a pending order on trend line break out method, how do i know at which point/price it will break? does it mean that i need to keep watching the screen to take a position?? coz the price can reverse and break at an unknown time and price level....thanks in anticipation of your response...cheers

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: trendline.png
Size: 34 KB

learn and earn from the ups and downs...of life.

#350
Jul 14, 2013 7:37am Jul 14, 2013 7:37am

piprac
| Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 779 Posts

"hi, can someone enlighten me? if i want to place a pending order on trend line break out method, how do i know at which point/price it will break? does it mean that i need to keep watching the screen to take a position?? coz the price can reverse and break at an unknown time and price level....thanks in anticipation of your response...cheers" per shinewel

I use Stop Buy & Sell orders a lot on the D. TF, a 10-15 pip above/below the previous hi or low OR the prev. hi or low itself depending on the circumstances. I may miss some pips in the beginning but I'm sure the price is going my way when a trade is entered. But I would be very cautious of that 3rd candle to the left, it's huge. Be careful.

#351
Jul 18, 2013 9:52am Jul 18, 2013 9:52am

piprac
| Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 779 Posts

Kind of stressful for me but good winners with small SLs.

#352
Jul 22, 2013 2:03am Jul 22, 2013 2:03am

dekpips
| Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Trader | 47 Posts

Hey all, first post but i've been stalking the forums for quite a while now, just made an account now as i'm really confused about what i've been doing wrong here. 5 times in a row now it breaks the trendline, closes below it leading me to sell, then just rises back up, putting me deeper and deeper into loss. Here's a picture of the latest one, was this a valid trendline? Am I doing something wrong? thanks all

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: break.jpg
Size: 89 KB

#353
Jul 23, 2013 3:44am Jul 23, 2013 3:44am

Dejan
| Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Trader | 74 Posts

@ Dekpips ,........See GU H1 Analysis. Also the angle of TL is important

http://screencast.com/t/sCnvDeF5Mnt

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: GU_TL.png
Size: 67 KB

#354
Jul 23, 2013 6:26am Jul 23, 2013 6:26am

dekpips
| Joined Jul 2013 | Status: Trader | 47 Posts

Quoting Dejan

Disliked

@ Dekpips ,........See GU H1 Analysis. Also the angle of TL is important http://screencast.com/t/sCnvDeF5Mnt {image}

Ignored

that makes sense. thankyou