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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #35,201
  • Jul 19, 2013 1:42am Jul 19, 2013 1:42am
Quoting aeternum
{quote} It already broke out of a triangle yesterday but after it fell back in, it could just have been a fake out / bull trap. If it continues higher, the previous most recent high is another 100 pips away. For some people, that kills accounts.
I think you missed the screenshots that both vash and myself posted, to us, it didn't break out of anything, it only reinforced a descending trendline on the daily chart. ~100.86 that it hit earlier tonight was a perfect bounce off the trendline. You can reference both Vash or my post and see what we were looking at.

If 100 pips kills an account and it wasn't stopped out, but margin called...sounds like really poor money management, I just came to pop in and talk about USDJPY
  • #35,202
  • Jul 19, 2013 2:13am Jul 19, 2013 2:13am
Did a bit of looking around. Found a 1H divergence that resulted in a 80 pip sell off.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY 19 July 2013 1H Bearish Divergence Result in 80 pip sell off.png Size: 81 KB
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #35,203
  • Jul 19, 2013 2:22am Jul 19, 2013 2:22am
there is entry and tp .. where is sl ?
Quoting aeternum
Did a bit of looking around. Found a 1H divergence that resulted in a 80 pip sell off. {image}
not euphoria follower
  • #35,204
  • Jul 19, 2013 2:44am Jul 19, 2013 2:44am
Quoting iqyu5an
there is entry and tp .. where is sl ? {quote}
I didn't use a SL. I will close it depending on the next candle stick.

It just shot up 30 pips.

Edit: Closed for 20 pips.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #35,205
  • Jul 19, 2013 2:55am Jul 19, 2013 2:55am
good luck mate ...
Quoting aeternum
{quote} I didn't use a SL. I will close it depending on the next candle stick. It just shot up 30 pips. Edit: Closed for 20 pips.
not euphoria follower
  • #35,206
  • Jul 19, 2013 3:10am Jul 19, 2013 3:10am
Gidday

US/JPY sitting on longs

they are talking huge numbers 120 etc this year

still these retraces can suck your account dry.

I would prefer a retrace,only to load up longs

See what happen tonight:nerd:
  • #35,207
  • Jul 19, 2013 4:37am Jul 19, 2013 4:37am
Quoting iqyu5an
good luck mate ... {quote}
Yes I know its not recommended. But I always hedge my trades. Not really into taking a trade unless I feel it will go in that direction, so I don't put a SL in case of any news to cause it to hit my SL and then go the way I was trading.
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #35,208
  • Jul 19, 2013 4:50am Jul 19, 2013 4:50am
Quoting eliteincome
Gidday US/JPY sitting on longs they are talking huge numbers 120 etc this year still these retraces can suck your account dry. I would prefer a retrace,only to load up longs See what happen tonight:nerd:


120 looks impressive right now, but looking at the monthly chart...well, it isn't a big story after all.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #35,209
  • Jul 19, 2013 5:10am Jul 19, 2013 5:10am
Quoting bikov
{quote} 120 looks impressive right now, but looking at the monthly chart...well, it isn't a big story after all.
What would be a big story 140 yen once they achieve 2% inflation...?
  • #35,210
  • Jul 19, 2013 5:54am Jul 19, 2013 5:54am
Quoting 200Pips
{quote} What would be a big story 140 yen once they achieve 2% inflation...?

agree, but we have to wait for the elections first.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #35,211
  • Jul 19, 2013 6:11am Jul 19, 2013 6:11am
what exactly will happen in this jpn election?
I still have some open trades and am getting nervous about this jpy election will it make jpn yen drop?
  • #35,212
  • Jul 19, 2013 6:16am Jul 19, 2013 6:16am
If Abe (LDP) wins, there's a good chance for continuation of the JPY weakness.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #35,213
  • Jul 19, 2013 6:16am Jul 19, 2013 6:16am
If Abe gets a convincing majority then my bet is for a gap-up on Sunday market open, followed by a Nikkei surge which will probably shove the Monday morning droop well down, and maybe another strong surge on UJ when Europe opens. However, I could be completely wrong....
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #35,214
  • Jul 19, 2013 6:40am Jul 19, 2013 6:40am
Hi All!

I have 4 lots usdjpy opened at 97,75 some days ago...

Now there's this election in Japan and everybody seems to be very positive on the possible election of Mr. Abe...

Do you think it would be better if I close the position today to be safe or better risk something?
  • #35,215
  • Jul 19, 2013 7:01am Jul 19, 2013 7:01am
Quoting apfrezza
Hi All! I have 4 lots usdjpy opened at 97,75 some days ago... Now there's this election in Japan and everybody seems to be very positive on the possible election of Mr. Abe... Do you think it would be better if I close the position today to be safe or better risk something?

this is tough one, but maybe it's better to take 2 lots and let the others running. you can always jump in if it goes up.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #35,216
  • Jul 19, 2013 7:21am Jul 19, 2013 7:21am
Quoting Exodus
If Abe gets a convincing majority then my bet is for a gap-up on Sunday market open, followed by a Nikkei surge which will probably shove the Monday morning droop well down, and maybe another strong surge on UJ when Europe opens. However, I could be completely wrong....
i like the forecast. I feel the same about Abe getting the vote and a possible gap up. Never thought about the Nikkei surge though, but does sound feasible.
Damn The Torpedoes, Full Speed Ahead!
  • #35,217
  • Edited 7:44am Jul 19, 2013 7:30am | Edited 7:44am
Quoting Exodus
If Abe gets a convincing majority then my bet is for a gap-up on Sunday market open, followed by a Nikkei surge which will probably shove the Monday morning droop well down, and maybe another strong surge on UJ when Europe opens. However, I could be completely wrong....
assuming its not already priced in to the data? what is interesting is the huge amounts of sell orders at the top and the huge sell orders sitting below this price action .. numbering about 3:1 ...
  • #35,218
  • Jul 19, 2013 10:18am Jul 19, 2013 10:18am
Deutsche Bank says to stay long USD/JPY

Elections this weekend will refocus markets on the government’s plans to overhaul the country and boost USD/JPY, Deutsche Bank says.
They target 103.74 in the coming months. Separately, Morgan Stanley warns of a risk of a US dollar decline following Bernanke but warns against shorting USD/JPY.
  • #35,219
  • Jul 19, 2013 10:57am Jul 19, 2013 10:57am
Assuming Abe will not win elections, what do you think will happen to usdjpy?
  • #35,220
  • Jul 19, 2013 3:01pm Jul 19, 2013 3:01pm
Quoting apfrezza
Assuming Abe will not win elections, what do you think will happen to usdjpy?
If Abe wins but with slim margin then market will probably feel like me.
If Abe loses IMHO Nikkei will crash, it will be risk-off, Yen will strengthen.
....of course I could be wrong about that too.

edit: @ domino, I had not considered that the market had priced in the win.
Thx.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
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