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Sonic R. System

  • #53,781
  • Jul 16, 2013 5:22pm Jul 16, 2013 5:22pm
Quoting wenaaa
{quote} {quote} so bears or bulls? donīt think MMīs changing their sentiment twice a day

When I entered the trade there were bearish signs, right now, 14 hours later, there are some bullish signs at the bottoms - moving around 1.03750 with high selling volume to push the price under support line and then heavy buying at lows.... maybe just pullback and another short attempt in next days, maybe reversal, we will see.....

Just my opinion about current situation..


-Andreyas
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  • #53,782
  • Jul 16, 2013 6:35pm Jul 16, 2013 6:35pm
Quoting Andreyas
{quote} When I entered the trade there were bearish signs, right now, 14 hours later, there are some bullish signs at the bottoms - moving around 1.03750 with high selling volume to push the price under support line and then heavy buying at lows.... maybe just pullback and another short attempt in next days, maybe reversal, we will see..... Just my opinion about current situation.. -Andreyas {image}
Huy,
IMHO it's to early to declare "bulls".
UC is in consolidation, and now facing resistance (previous support 15m).
i Believe MM haven't completly loaded for long, so price can be pushed back down to .0366 again or lower, in order to fill more longs.
Regards,
If you don't know how to earn money, don't loose it.
  • #53,783
  • Jul 16, 2013 7:14pm Jul 16, 2013 7:14pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} Yes, it can wipe out an account. I have found my niche, how to do it by trading very, very light relative to account size. I know of no other way. I have a EJ trade down about 13,000 pips that has been running a long time. Yet, one good week of trading brings in enough profits to cover it. I let it run. I think every trader needs to be aware it can happen, and be prepared either to wait it out or close it out. Greed, trading large, and trying to make a lot of money quickly. This is what kills accounts. This is what the MMs and brokers know...
This post got me thinking. Of course, taking all the general precautions that has been hammered down by you Tah and others is the starting Point to get through large drawdowns.
But then also having a big enough bank to trade multiple pairs is also important. I know nothing about under which conditions the MM:s work, but itīs reasonable to asume that theyīd need to cash in regularly. If so, while some pairs are trending for long under which the MM:s and Sonicers build positions, others will have shorter trends allowing MM:s, and Sonicer,s to take profit, adding to the bank and the endurance to manage drawdowns.

Another possibility for non US Citizens is to hedge and so "lock in" the potential drawdown/loss, waiting for the trend to turn.

A third possibility, which also has been mentioned is to ride the trend assisted by using PVSRA. One wa to do that is to compare the individual currencies to each other. Reading the above post I remembered an indy by gg53 in the thread "The gg53 "Killing Zone"" which could be of assistance for anybody interested in this.

Look at the EJ charts below and how the Gadi Currency indy shows the Euro stronger than the Yen for most part of the long EJ bull trend that started last summer. Following that and trading with the trend adding in the pullbacks to the dragon therefore looks like a sound idea.

http://charts.mql5.com/2/52/eurjpy-w...ital-group.png

http://charts.mql5.com/2/52/eurjpy-a...da-markets.png

Cheers

Waez
  • #53,784
  • Jul 16, 2013 8:59pm Jul 16, 2013 8:59pm
PVSRA, UCad: Bulls or Bears?

I closed my short trade earlier, but am still considering a new short trade if the MMs push up the price sufficiently because the high volume at the lows yesterday now is turning out to be "stop the drop" volume, not true "stopping" volume. The MMs are in the process of pushing the price back up, presumably to reload new shorts after taking some profit at those lows. M1 PVSRA clearly shows how the MMs have been moving the price up in steps, and shows that the most recent step highs are with more notable volumes than those much earlier. So, the higher this goes, the more trading is being done, indicating the MMs are bears adding more shorts.

The question is, how high will the MMs take their building before turning this around for another run for profits? We cannot know that, but I am watching to see if the MMs get the price above the upper whole SR, and if they do then I will watch to see what they do with the volume. This could be a good place to start building a new short trade. PVSRA will provide an indication when that time comes.

Later today there are multiple USD and CAD high impact releases. This could result in a run for profits that begins suddenly and goes deep quickly. That is another reason to consider building a short position during the MMs building phase instead of waiting for the run for profits. If you wait, you might not have much time to set up your short trade.
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  • #53,785
  • Edited 9:44pm Jul 16, 2013 9:25pm | Edited 9:44pm
Hello all. Long time no post here but have been keeping a watching eye on this thread to see how things pan out long term and have been experimenting on a demo with a view to going ahead with a micro account dedicated to this after summer break. The one thing that has always deterred me is the need to always monitor what is going on - like many others I cannot guarantee to be in front of the screen every day at same time and reading this off a mobile device is a pain. Even so with a properly funded account and a long term view this should work out. For info having gone through the experience of wiping an account using PVSRA and having watched how others have faced drawdown my account requirement calcs go like this:

Assume 20 lots with Drawdown 300 pips = 6000 pips
Say 8 pairs being traded = 48000 pips
Micro account (1000 units) pip value .066GBP = 3168GBP
Allow a bit for error and comfort factor so can sleep at night = 3300GBP or 5000USD


THIS IS FOR A MICRO ACCOUNT

I have long been meaning to try Dukascopy as many traders seem to like them, especially those with larger accounts and the spreads are very good, especially if you quote an introducing agent (Pipware.com offers the best return I have seen also got my vote as the guy behind it is a really good FF member). As I say I will not be live with this until after my summer break as I have no desire to monitor this from my mediterranean island hideaway even if I could find wifi!

Meantime EurGbp looks interesting although might be a bit early:

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Lastly I love the new trade levels indicator showing pippage count and also the actual entry positions to close that some of you are showing. Am I right this is something out there in Beta from TAH? When is it likely to materialise.

Happy pipping to all.
Katte, kabuto no o wo shime yo. Size doesn't matter, leverage is the killer
  • #53,786
  • Edited 9:57pm Jul 16, 2013 9:37pm | Edited 9:57pm
Quoting revoli
Hello all. Long time no post here but have been keeping a watching eye on this thread to see how things pan out long term and have been experimenting on a demo with a view to going ahead with a micro account dedicated to this after summer break. The one thing that has always deterred me is the need to always monitor what is going on - like many others I cannot guarantee to be in front of the screen every day at same time and reading this off a mobile device is a pain. Even so with a properly funded account and a long term view this should work out....
revoli,

Can you translate that for us?

1. 20 components to a trade (at $10/pip, $1/pip, or $0.10/pip depending on size of trader's account, i.e., trading one lot, one mini-lot or one micro-lot per component.
2. Assume 300 pips draw down on each of 20 components, and for 8 separate concurrently running trades = 48,000 pips potential draw down. This equates to $480,000, $48,000, or $4,800 potential draw down depending on size of trader's account/ size of each trade component.
3. Micro account (1000 units), means what? What is a "unit". What are you trying to say here? I think what might be good to specify here is the recommended size of the three accounts (based on lots, minis or micro sized components to be traded).

As regards the SonicR Trade Levels indicator, it is in "final stages" of adding last intended feature by St3ve. He has contributed substantially to this indicator and when it is done, we will all owe gratitute to him for his self-less expenditure of time on it. When completed, there will be an upgrade release of the TAH indicators/templates because other improvements are also made.

-tah
  • #53,787
  • Edited 11:09pm Jul 16, 2013 9:59pm | Edited 11:09pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} revoli, Can you translate that for us? 1. 20 components to a trade (at $10/pip, $1/pip, or $0.10/pip depending on size of trader's account, i.e., trading one lot, one mini-lot or one micro-lot per component. 2. Assume 300 pips draw down on each of 20 components, and for 8 separate concurrently running trades = 48,000 pips potential draw down. This equates to $480,000, $48,000, or $4,800 potential draw down depending on size of trader's account/ size of each trade component. 3. Micro account (1000 units), means what? What is a "unit". What...
You read it before I had finished typing - finger trouble caused it to get published before I had done with it. Hopefully it is now clear but just to be sure when looking at lot size and to avoid confusion this is using 1000 units of the base currency or 0.01 of a normal lot size of 100,000.

So my calculations are based on
How many lots expected (20)
What is the sort of drawdown that could be encountered. 300 pips is not unheard of. Although it could be worse, not likely on every single pair traded.
8 pairs traded at any one time is probably more than enough but best to be cautious here

All of which gives me 5000USD account size for a 1000 unit base currency (0.01 lot) trading size.

Hopefully that leaves enough space to be comfortable.

This is for a micro account (0.01 lot, 1000 units of base currency) For mini lot of 0.1 (10,000 units of base currency 50,000 USD etc)

This may sound like overkill to many and time will tell but the key here is to be able to produce long term consistent returns, not to produce astounding growth rates on an account to the see it reduced by half or even wiped out the next month. Comfort in drawdowns is everything.

Regards
Katte, kabuto no o wo shime yo. Size doesn't matter, leverage is the killer
  • #53,788
  • Edited 11:16pm Jul 16, 2013 10:53pm | Edited 11:16pm
Quoting revoli
{quote} You read it before I had finished typing - finger trouble caused it to get published before I had done with it. Hopefully it is now clear but just to be sure when looking at lot size and to avoid confusion this is using 1000 units of the base currency or 0.01 of a normal lot size of 100,000. So my calculations are based on How many lots expected (20) What is the sort of drawdown that could be encountered. 300 lots is not unheard of. Although it could be worse, not likely on every single pair traded. 8 pairs traded at any one time is probably...
revoli,

Your interchangable use of the word "lot" in one place, and then talking of them as 0.01 lot in another is confusing. If I understand, and so other Soncers have a brief summary, you are concluding.....

1. Assume 20 trade components per trade, sized as one micro-lot each ($0.10/pip) and 8 such trades concurrently open and all 160 components are down 300 pips, or a draw down of $4,800.

2. The recommended minimum account size is $5,000.

If I may add comments, they are these. Certainly not all 8 trades are likely to have 20 components each. An average of 10 each is more likely going to be the case as the trader gets more picky in positioning and spacing entries. Also, many will not be attempting to trade 8 different pairs simultaneously. Maybe more like half that number. The assumption of a 300 pips maximum average draw down for all components is reasonable insurance.

Finally, if we were to equate this to a $500 opening account balance, it means the trader should have no more than 8 concurrently open trade components of one micro-lot size (draw down of $240), and better if they have only 4 concurrently open trade components (draw down of $120). So only trade one pair at a time. Maybe just trade EU until the account grows larger.

Do you concur, revoli?

-tah
  • #53,789
  • Jul 16, 2013 11:08pm Jul 16, 2013 11:08pm
Mea culpa. Should read my own posts before I press send. You are right on all counts (as usual). I want to allow myself the ability to trade quite aggressively hence my numbers. Eight pairs 300 pips down with 20 lots each is unlikely but lessons learnt in any system - whatever you initially think you need for an account size is going to be woefully inadequate so double it. All in my humble opinion and for my trading style.
Katte, kabuto no o wo shime yo. Size doesn't matter, leverage is the killer
  • #53,790
  • Jul 16, 2013 11:33pm Jul 16, 2013 11:33pm
Looking at USD-JPY, expecting a failure sometime tonight of the 99.50 level and perhaps break down towards 98.50 again.


Price being contained by H1 dragon so far...
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  • #53,791
  • Jul 17, 2013 12:37am Jul 17, 2013 12:37am
Classic sonic set up on M15 AU
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  • #53,792
  • Jul 17, 2013 1:06am Jul 17, 2013 1:06am
Quoting Islander
{quote} If you read the previous post you can see how I am currently only trading the London Session. As most of the action in AU is during the Australasian Session, I rarely trade AU. However, a quick look at the 60m & 4hr charts shows a retrace towards the 38% fibonacci level at 0.9252 or next up the 50% at 0.9304. Given today's positive news from the RBA minutes which suggested no early rate cut and also the removal of the Carbon Tax I would expect one or both these levels to get hit soon....just an opinion - not a trade recommendation!...

I hope some sold the 9250 area, now setting up for a classic - providing the 9200 level gets broken......TWT
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #53,793
  • Jul 17, 2013 1:12am Jul 17, 2013 1:12am
Quoting Islander
{quote} I hope some sold the 9250 area, now setting up for a classic - providing the 9200 level gets broken......TWT {image}
That 9250 on AUD/USD on the 1 Min perfect setup to ride down for some pips.
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Creditors have better memories than debtors.
  • #53,794
  • Edited 2:20am Jul 17, 2013 2:03am | Edited 2:20am
Quoting revoli
Meantime EurGbp looks interesting although might be a bit early:
Hello revoli, I already started

Edit: USDCAD: Now It seem bears...
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Newbie trader
  • #53,795
  • Edited 2:15am Jul 17, 2013 2:04am | Edited 2:15am
Quoting ForexSwag
{quote} That 9250 on AUD/USD on the 1 Min perfect setup to ride down for some pips. {image}
Yep and just now a nice little mid Frankies Hour drop from the **25 to the **00 level, so banked some and now changed to watching €, cable & UJ for the London Session....

PS Took a cable short off the pull back to the 5m / 15m dragons and a UJ long as all three dragons turned green - charts later...
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #53,796
  • Jul 17, 2013 2:17am Jul 17, 2013 2:17am
Quoting Islander
{quote} Yep and just now a nice little mid Frankies Hour drop from the **25 to the **00 level, so banked some and now changing to watching €, cable & UJ for the London Session....

Yep, and in front of these drop the usual push up.


Frankfurt Open, EU GU AU

MM’s are Bears. PVSRA shows that my fellow countrymen did push the price a bit up on significant volume for only one reason: adding shorts.
These micro market insights (1 min timeframe) gives us the confidence to stay in the trade as long as necessary.

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  • #53,797
  • Jul 17, 2013 2:30am Jul 17, 2013 2:30am
Quoting Islander
{quote} Yep and just now a nice little mid Frankies Hour drop from the **25 to the **00 level, so banked some and now changed to watching €, cable & UJ for the London Session.... PS Took a cable short off the pull back to the 5m / 15m dragons and a UJ long as all three dragons turned green - charts later...
I sent you private message Mr. Islander
  • #53,798
  • Jul 17, 2013 2:35am Jul 17, 2013 2:35am
Quoting Islander
{quote} If you move your cursor over a persons name it will bring up his number of posts - in my case, 6,859. Click on this to bring up a list of these posts and go back say 3 months, read my posts and look at the charts I have posted and you should find sufficient information - if not, then ask again with a more specific question. Good luck PS The simple answer is that I am trading in the direction of the dragons on the 1m, 5m & 15m charts
Thank you, comrade. I will go through your posts and get back to you when I am finished.
  • #53,799
  • Jul 17, 2013 3:00am Jul 17, 2013 3:00am
PS Took a cable short off the pull back to the 5m / 15m dragons and a UJ long as all three dragons turned green - charts later...

The charts tell all.....
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #53,800
  • Jul 17, 2013 3:05am Jul 17, 2013 3:05am
I'm having trouble posting this morning - I don't know if its FF or a problem at my end, either way, I'm finished for this morning - three nice trades banking well above my quota
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Trading Levels with WRBs
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