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Sonic R. System

  • #53,401
  • Jul 12, 2013 1:59am Jul 12, 2013 1:59am
Banked those pips as this is a Frankies Hour trade - before LO and thus the PA is "not reliable"

Edit: LOL - nor was my DP - wrong time set - it should be at 1.5132, just below the lows
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #53,402
  • Jul 12, 2013 2:10am Jul 12, 2013 2:10am
Hello guys,
Thought i give my analysis. USD JPY. PVSRA M1 shows that it continues to be bear.
Pump and dump above 99. Furthermore the volume is not at the low but instead pushing the price down.

M5 and M15 is the same.

love to have some comments how to contribute.


Thanks
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  • #53,403
  • Jul 12, 2013 2:12am Jul 12, 2013 2:12am
Nice one Islander.. yeah I was watching the M1 chart too. I'm going for a bigger move here hopefully won't regret it. M15 and H1 chart suggesting more downside.

We have a classic sonic set up on the M15.
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  • #53,404
  • Jul 12, 2013 2:13am Jul 12, 2013 2:13am
Quoting forexbert
Hello guys, Thought i give my analysis. USD JPY. PVSRA M1 shows that it continues to be bear. Pump and dump above 99. Furthermore the volume is not at the low but instead pushing the price down. M5 and M15 is the same. love to have some comments how to contribute. Thanks {image}

Hey, yeah watching this mkt closely and I'm very bearish on it, maybe wrongly. But I think they might send price up to 99.90-100 area before going lower. Hoping it goes as high as possible
  • #53,405
  • Jul 12, 2013 2:14am Jul 12, 2013 2:14am
Quoting Redsunfx
{quote} Thank"s TAH i have found what i was looking for ..... for those who are also interested Extract from TAH post "I did recently apply some math to it and came up with an interesting observation. If a $2,000 account were opened up and if the trader traded micro lots (10 cents per pip) they could have forty open trades, all down by the maximum typical drawdown of the worst trade in a group and still not use up half the margin, based on the restrictive margin maximum here in the USofA. No doubt few traders would have anywhere near forty open...
This post is exactly what I needed to duplicate your leverage. Thanks! So if I use a 200 dollar account to practice each position size is 100 units( one penny). Boy, when said small seeds you were NOT joking!
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #53,406
  • Jul 12, 2013 2:18am Jul 12, 2013 2:18am
pvsra is the best thanks to tah and other that contributed to my success 3000+ pips up
we DONT know where price will go the next second so trust your indicator
  • #53,407
  • Jul 12, 2013 2:20am Jul 12, 2013 2:20am
Quoting foxybunny
{quote} jmn5611, wasn't it only a few posts earlier from you that you said that you want to show Sonicers on more Classic trades and like having a competition-comparison with TAH's trades ? Your tune changed very fast here without even testing out the normal Classic trades and we only saw like one chart from you without any entry or SL or TP. Hmmmm...... Now you want to try a new experiment to prove you can blow up a $20 account. Hmmmmmmm........... And no there is nothing wrong for you testing TAH's method of building multiple positions against...

Actually what I wanted is for Sonicers to start trading on the right side of the dragon. I have lived thru three black swans and correlations break down. tah is trading as a mean reverter when he averages down. Now, everyone lately has been trading on the right side of the dragon. I also found out that I am only the latest person to state that this strategy is dangerous. Simply put, there is no reason to post if everyone is trading in the direction of the dragon now.

Now, I want to see how and why the averaging down work, and for how long. I now have the information to make that happen. It will be interesting to see it side by side here in my trading lab!

And you are right, I would have blown up the 20 dollar account if I traded with the leverage I had suggested. Based on tah's posts that is too high by a factor of 10 for an account that size. A 20 dollar account should have a unit trading size of 10 units. Or one tenth of a penny.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #53,408
  • Edited 4:38am Jul 12, 2013 2:39am | Edited 4:38am
Quoting Ck87
Nice one Islander.. yeah I was watching the M1 chart too. I'm going for a bigger move here hopefully won't regret it. M15 and H1 chart suggesting more downside. We have a classic sonic set up on the M15. {image}
I too expect there to be a larger move - the range today so far is only 54 pips. A pull back to the 15m dragon would be a great place for me to sell again.....TWT. Remember its a Friday after two days of high volatility, so the main action may not start till next week.....

My intra day trading is about banking pips - so far today its 7,500 micros at this weeks lot size - and three of these and I'm a happy bunny and finished for the day

Edit: The pull back was only to the 5m dragon / **50 area, so I sold again there, but I'm not going to hog the thread with more charts.......I also sold € - a similar set up as expected from my post on the Swissy....

2nd Edit: the move stalled (for now?) at the **25 level in a higher volumed red Bear Climax bar, so I banked again and that was me finished for this morning.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #53,409
  • Jul 12, 2013 2:45am Jul 12, 2013 2:45am
So tah has been averaging down and survived for seven months. He says to plant small seeds. What is a small seed? If we use the 2000 dollar account size to trade dime sized pips, this is what we get.

2000 dollars gives a buying power on max leverage of 50:1 of 76500 units.

1000 units gives 10 cent per pip.

1000/76500 is 0.0130% of the total buying power. That is a quantitative definition of a "small seed"
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #53,410
  • Jul 12, 2013 3:05am Jul 12, 2013 3:05am
Okay, here we go. Let's see how long I last! MM selling into the half number, entry just a tad late.
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If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #53,411
  • Jul 12, 2013 3:10am Jul 12, 2013 3:10am
Quoting Islander
{quote}so far today its 7,500 micros at this weeks lot size - and three of these and I'm a happy bunny and finished for the day
I think you are simply playing in other league Islander. You have a decent capital to trade and of course, you can win in one trade what I have won in 1 month. That's normal, because you capital is bigger.

But so far, I have won 20% of my account in this month, and that's for me is simply awesome. Another guy said a couple of pages ago that "to win 10% daily is easy". Men... then wtf is he doing here, he could be rich in months. Imho, to win at least 10% per month it's quite awesome and I don't know a lot of people who can do that constantly.

You are right about the pips, that's because I stated so many times that the number of pips is not important at all. We use it to measure our trades, but that's all. I can win 100k pips and you can win 100 pips and we are winning the same. For me, what is important is the % of the account. That is equal for everybody. Of course, if you have 20k$ and you win 20% per month constantly, that is 4k$ per month, which is pretty good. But for me, I have to start from the very beginning. I don't know how the things are in your country, but in Spain things are so so bad. I'm 25yo, and the 60% of the young people is unemployed. 60%, yes.

I can't start with 20k$ because I don't have 20k$ to invest. I have to WIN those 20k$. If I achieve that, I have no doubt that I can achieve 200k or 2kk. I know sometimes it's very frustrating to win 20 or 30 bucks but I see that as a learning path. As a challenge. I have been trading for 7 month and I'm not just learning, I'm winning money when I'm learning at the same time!

But again, you are completely right, the number of pips per month is just a number which does represent nothing.

Best, Tymedu.
To fail is just an opportunity to learn
  • #53,412
  • Jul 12, 2013 3:15am Jul 12, 2013 3:15am
Quoting Tymedu
{quote} I think you are simply playing in other league Islander. You have a decent capital to trade and of course, you can win in one trade what I have won in 1 month. That's normal, because you capital is bigger. But so far, I have won 20% of my account in this month, and that's for me is simply awesome. Another guy said a couple of pages ago that "to win 10% daily is easy". Men... then wtf is he doing here, he could be rich in months. Imho, to win at least 10% per month it's quite awesome and I don't know a lot of people who can do that constantly....
Yea, right. I am collage student and my cap is 2k only. And my profit is now 0. I made lot of hills in my profit chart. Sorry for langugage, still studying :-D
  • #53,413
  • Jul 12, 2013 3:22am Jul 12, 2013 3:22am
Quoting Tymedu
{quote} I think you are simply playing in other league Islander. You have a decent capital to trade and of course, you can win in one trade what I have won in 1 month. That's normal, because you capital is bigger. But so far, I have won 20% of my account in this month, and that's for me is simply awesome. Another guy said a couple of pages ago that "to win 10% daily is easy". Men... then wtf is he doing here, he could be rich in months. Imho, to win at least 10% per month it's quite awesome and I don't know a lot of people who can do that constantly....

Consistency is the most important. Then you can compound small $ into huge $ in the long run. Just keep managing your money properly and everything will take care of itself.
  • #53,414
  • Jul 12, 2013 3:51am Jul 12, 2013 3:51am
Quoting Tymedu
{quote} .......the number of pips per month is just a number which does represent nothing. Best, Tymedu.
Tymedu, I always respect most everything you say, but this part of your statement
just doesn't "sit right" with me.

The number of pips ISN'T nothing. The number of pips is EVERYTHING!

What we are really trying to do here is accumulate as many pips as
we possibly can while at the same time, doing so in a safe and sensible
manner.

The pip count can be converted to any monetary amount the individual
trader deems it to be, or rather, whatever their account size will allow
it to be. I don't like to (or can't) use percentages as a target. To me, the
pip count, and only the pip count, is the quantifying factor. All other things
must be adjusted relative to that.

:nerd:
  • #53,415
  • Jul 12, 2013 4:03am Jul 12, 2013 4:03am
Quoting ArtfulDodger
{quote} Tymedu, I always respect most everything you say, but this part of your statement still doesn't "sit right" with me. The number of pips ISN'T nothing. The number of pips is EVERYTHING! What we are really trying to do here is accumulate as many pips as we possibly can while at the same time, doing so in a safe and sensible manner. The pip count can be converted to any monetary amount the individual trader deems it to be, or rather, whatever their account size will allow it to be. I don't like to (or can't) use percentages as a target. To...
Hi Artful, quick reply before going to the beach.

Let me put an example.

You open a long single position in UJ @98.5 with your TP @99.5. Your TP is touched and you win 100pips. Now I open 25 longs @98.5 with my TP @99.5. My TP is touched and I won 2500 pips. Following your argument, I did better than you, because I won x25 pips more than you.

However, you invested 1$ per pip, and you win 100$. I invested 0,02$ per pip, and I won 50$. Assuming we both have a 5k$ account, you win the 2% and I won the 1%.

That is what I mean when I said pips are nothing. Pips is a unit to measure our trades, our distance from the EP to the TP or SL, the distance between 2 point, etc. But imho, we shouldn't measure the success based on that, because that unit can be very very relative. However, the % can't be inflated (I don't know if that verb even exists in English xD). The % of success per trade is independent of the number of pips. It implies the growth of your account, and that is for me, a nice and fair way to measure the success.

Of course, it's just my opinion.
To fail is just an opportunity to learn
  • #53,416
  • Jul 12, 2013 4:25am Jul 12, 2013 4:25am
Quoting Tymedu
{quote} I think you are simply playing in other league Islander. You have a decent capital to trade and of course, you can win in one trade what I have won in 1 month. That's normal, because you capital is bigger. But so far, I have won 20% of my account in this month, and that's for me is simply awesome. Another guy said a couple of pages ago that "to win 10% daily is easy". Men... then wtf is he doing here, he could be rich in months. Imho, to win at least 10% per month it's quite awesome and I don't know a lot of people who can do that constantly....
Sorry Tyedu, you are missing the point of what I am trying to show - another way of using what Sonic & TAH have given us. I've adapted this to use for 1m / 5m intra-day trading and because my trades are based on trading WITH the slope of the dragons, I can use higher leverage. As I stated at the start of this week, I am using a $1,000 account for this exercise and I'm also trying to keep it in line with the US regulations - a max of 50:1 gearing / leverage. Take a look at what say 50 banked pips a day can do based on this idea. I only post a few of my trades just to demonstrate what can be achieved.

I guess you haven't checked my profile - you may find that I am closer than you imagined

So yes, you can start with $1,000 and grow it to more than $10,000 in a year as TAH is showing and I am too - as I've done before

Enjoy the beach





Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #53,417
  • Jul 12, 2013 4:37am Jul 12, 2013 4:37am

Quoting Tymedu
{quote} Hi Artful, quick reply before going to the beach. Let me put an example. You open a long single position in UJ @98.5 with your TP @99.5. Your TP is touched and you win 100pips. Now I open 25 longs @98.5 with my TP @99.5. My TP is touched and I won 2500 pips. Following your argument, I did better than you, because I won x25 pips more than you. However, you invested 1$ per pip, and you win 100$. I invested 0,02$ per pip, and I won 50$. Assuming we both have a 5k$ account, you win the 2% and I won the 1%. That is what I mean when I said pips...
Again, what you say is correct, but you are relating it more to the approach/size of a trade.

I still maintain that the pip is the primary thing in either of those examples. We are trying to
accumulate pips, pips, and more pips! (I'm hard-headed, aren't I?!!!!?)

So you are going to the beach- I hate you now - I love the beach and I am stuck
here (until I can accumulate more pips!)
  • #53,418
  • Jul 12, 2013 4:39am Jul 12, 2013 4:39am
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Consistency is the most important. Then you can compound small $ into huge $ in the long run. Just keep managing your money properly and everything will take care of itself.
Absolutely right.
If you can’t make pips you can’t make money.
Once you can consistently make pips, then turning those pips into money is just a matter of account size and money management. Easier said than done I know.
An example of pips to money. I normally trade 0.05 or 0.1 lots with about 10 trades per pair which is nice gentle trading. While messing around with my easy Order script I accidentally (and unnoticed amongst 40 or so open orders) placed a 6.7 lot sell on GU this morning. 17 pips turned into £650 in 15 minutes before I saw it and closed. A dangerous error but fortunately in my favour.

Also Jmn.
With regard to Tah ‘Averaging down’ and ‘surviving’ for 7 months.
With PVSRA we KNOW what the MMs are doing. Bulls or bears. What more do you need?
As opposed to averaging down, we build a position alongside the MMs and it’s the MMs that make the market. Survival is easy.

Trade light, be patient and it’s a breeze.
  • #53,419
  • Jul 12, 2013 4:43am Jul 12, 2013 4:43am
My apologies to Sonic, I missed a pic on my post ......now where's Tymedu
Attached Image
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #53,420
  • Jul 12, 2013 4:53am Jul 12, 2013 4:53am
Quoting Ian V
{quote} Absolutely right. If you can’t make pips you can’t make money. Once you can consistently make pips, then turning those pips into money is just a matter of account size and money management. Easier said than done I know. An example of pips to money. I normally trade 0.05 or 0.1 lots with about 10 trades per pair which is nice gentle trading. While messing around with my easy Order script I accidentally (and unnoticed amongst 40 or so open orders) placed a 6.7 lot sell on GU this morning. 17 pips turned into £650 in 15 minutes before I saw...

Again, most of you are too young to have been trading during the last financial comet that hit the planet. When this happens markets go into long, very hard and very fast trends. RTM systems such as this one are blown out. I was simply hoping that some of you had the good sense to at least trade with dragon as well so when this system blows up you will not be wiped out. Now the market may revert to the mean for a very long time, long enough to extract your original capital and trade on profit alone. Markets do range 70-80% of the time.

That said, tah has traded long enough to get his original capital back and some. So, in that sense his system is a success. He is also an awesome coder!
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
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