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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #68,041
  • Edited 7:35am Jul 11, 2013 7:24am | Edited 7:35am
Quoting PipsMaster23
Wow, what a move made by the EURO.... any idea why a 400 pip move so sharpish? Was it all to do with the FOMC and BB or something else I'm missing?
dovish fed statement to the extent of the move. i'm long @ 3040
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #68,042
  • Jul 11, 2013 7:31am Jul 11, 2013 7:31am
Quoting BoringIsGood
Bear market rallies are always the worst. Or in the fortunate ones case, the best. That weekly bar that is shaping up on the euro is not pleasant for the bears, no doubt. But it'll actually take more than that to shake me out. I guess I'm a "true believer". LOL
i like your username haha. very good.

but stay nimble. never fight the fed.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #68,043
  • Jul 11, 2013 7:42am Jul 11, 2013 7:42am
Quoting halkins
Hi guys... Anybody else seeing a bullish continuation flag pattern forming ? Hmmm... Is this only me? {image}
My bearish bias (especially after such a ball busting rally) does not allow my brain to see such things

What I see is a resumption of the bear trend.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,044
  • Jul 11, 2013 7:45am Jul 11, 2013 7:45am
Quoting PipsMaster23
Wow, what a move made by the EURO.... any idea why a 400 pip move so sharpish? Was it all to do with the FOMC and BB or something else I'm missing?

Hey PM,

It has all got to do with Bernanke's Q&A session last night.
Consider the following...

1. After hours
2. Low volume
3. Big boys playing god with interbank pricing

Need I say more?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,045
  • Jul 11, 2013 7:47am Jul 11, 2013 7:47am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} My bearish bias (especially after such a ball busting rally) does not allow my brain to see such things What I see is a resumption of the bear trend.
pullback before continuation. pullback is inevitable after such a monster move. july 9 was a mid-term trough. futures put in a low *1* tick shy of the YTD low followed a 450 tick pop. i'll ride my long all the way back to 128 where ill buy more.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #68,046
  • Jul 11, 2013 7:51am Jul 11, 2013 7:51am
Quoting nappenbir
PT Hi! I wonder this EURNZD are able to continue to go down to the base price of 1.49 xxx and I attach a picture here! Sincerely Nappenbir {image}
Nappenbir,

Bothe the EUR and the NZD are due for further losses, but probably more so the Euro because New Zealand is still in denial and the RBNZ are a bit too hawlisk for my liking. Eventually though the NZD will have to catch up.

Therefore, for me, this cross is not even worth looking at because there is too much uncertainty regarding its direction.

Strictly from a technical perspective from looking at the chart, I see major supply at 1.71xx and major demand at 1.56xx. Beyond that, I cannot help you. Perhaps somebody else can shed some light on this pair.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,047
  • Jul 11, 2013 8:01am Jul 11, 2013 8:01am
Quoting redteamgo
{quote} i like your username haha. very good. but stay nimble. never fight the fed.
Thank you for the compliment.

But I don't think buying the USD is fighting the fed atm. Big Ben just made an ambiguous statement that was wildly overblown by the market which triggered a massive stop run. Ben did not signal a change in policy. Neither have BOE or ECB.

And my long term wave counts are very, very bearish. And I trust those a lot.

Nice to meet you and best of luck with trading.
  • #68,048
  • Jul 11, 2013 8:01am Jul 11, 2013 8:01am
Quoting redteamgo
{quote} pullback before continuation. pullback is inevitable after such a monster move. july 9 was a mid-term trough. futures put in a low *1* tick shy of the YTD low followed a 450 tick pop. i'll ride my long all the way back to 128 where ill buy more.
If we close the week at or below these current levels, it's game over for the bull hopefuls and the 1.2810 H/S neckline comes back into focus for next week.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,049
  • Jul 11, 2013 8:04am Jul 11, 2013 8:04am
Good evening all,
I think the euro-aussie will try once again to break the highest price in 2011. If it works then the euro-aussie will complete the journey at around 1.47 but it's only my opinion...
  • #68,050
  • Jul 11, 2013 8:06am Jul 11, 2013 8:06am
Quoting BoringIsGood
{quote} ... Ben did not signal a change in policy. Neither have BOE or ECB. And my long term wave counts are very, very bearish. And I trust those a lot...
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,051
  • Jul 11, 2013 10:55am Jul 11, 2013 10:55am
Quoting BoringIsGood
Ben did not signal a change in policy. Neither have BOE or ECB. And my long term wave counts are very, very bearish. And I trust those a lot. Nice to meet you and best of luck with trading.
youre absolutely right. there is no change. he reminded the market of that. whether or not this move will be sustained is a matter of speculation at this point.

my spot accounts are long gone but setp (U) euros are making a nice little wedge as of writing. TBD.

best of luck as well.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #68,052
  • Jul 11, 2013 11:35am Jul 11, 2013 11:35am
Just saw John Hilsenrath on CNBC and his take away from Ben's talk yesterday was in line with mine.

Bernake's message did not change, half of the voting members want to end the QE program this year and his comment about inflation being below and unemployment being above the targets was aimed not at delaying or eliminating tapering but rather indicating that <.25% rates were not being raised anytime soon.

Forward bond rates were pricing in a rate rise in 2014. The bond bullies were getting it wrong and big Ben had to straighten them out.

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  • #68,053
  • Jul 11, 2013 12:10pm Jul 11, 2013 12:10pm
Quoting BoringIsGood
Just saw John Hilsenrath on CNBC and his take away from Ben's talk yesterday was in line with mine. Bernake's message did not change, half of the voting members want to end the QE program this year and his comment about inflation being below and unemployment being above the targets was aimed not at delaying or eliminating tapering but rather indicating that <.25% rates were not being raised anytime soon. Forward bond rates were pricing in a rate rise in 2014. The bond bullies were getting it wrong and big Ben had to straighten them out. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGJku2nZaYw...

Exactly, so he scared away the leveraged traders. Well done Benny. Now there's room for some serious money to get in the game.... like Benny's second cousin once removed maybe?

BTW. I love that soup nazi on Seinfeld
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,054
  • Jul 11, 2013 6:39pm Jul 11, 2013 6:39pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Exactly, so he scared away the leveraged traders. Well done Benny. Now there's room for some serious money to get in the game.... like Benny's second cousin once removed maybe? BTW. I love that soup nazi on Seinfeld
weird moves, no doubt
How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
  • #68,055
  • Jul 11, 2013 8:15pm Jul 11, 2013 8:15pm
B.I.G., youre in trouble when your views align with bloomberg,cnbc, or.. really any pundit.

the folk of lesser intellect on this forum gave me shiat for it before but my favorite maxims is this: "do you want to make money or be right?" i like making money and trading. already peeled one contract off @ 3120 for a pretty easy $1k buying a retrace after ben's Q&A (80 ticks x $12.5 x 1). 1 left and buying more when it dips to likely demand.
Any prices quoted are futures
  • #68,056
  • Jul 11, 2013 8:44pm Jul 11, 2013 8:44pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} When I pack it in, I don't close my trades. I use very sound money management techniques that allow me to leave open positions without worry. I use the sleep test to determine if I should leave a trade open. If I can't sleep, I get up and close it Last night, I left all my trades open and today I am only 1.1% underwater compared to as high as 3.3% yesterday.
When I have open positions left on fire overnight and crying for hedging, I pack it in with a wireless mousse in my hand and alarm clock warnings set on levels, with off course full HD screens right 45° above my bed...but I need to admit I switch the screens back lightning to smooth night lightning power...but I'm still looking how I can set-up full spot light flashing connections to the levels warnings...
  • #68,057
  • Jul 12, 2013 1:46am Jul 12, 2013 1:46am
Quoting Delta1One
{quote} When I have open positions left on fire overnight and crying for hedging, I pack it in with a wireless mousse in my hand and alarm clock warnings set on levels, with off course full HD screens right 45° above my bed...but I need to admit I switch the screens back lightning to smooth night lightning power...but I'm still looking how I can set-up full spot light flashing connections to the levels warnings...
Good morning Delta1. If I ever mounted a display panel on the ceiling above my bed, my wife would kill me before a hot trade ever had a chance to hurt my account.

For those looking for innovative ideas to take your trades with you where ever you go, check this out...

http://www.porhomme.com/2009/02/acce...ense-computer/

Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,058
  • Jul 12, 2013 1:49am Jul 12, 2013 1:49am
Quoting redteamgo
B.I.G., youre in trouble when your views align with bloomberg,cnbc, or.. really any pundit. the folk of lesser intellect on this forum gave me shiat for it before but my favorite maxims is this: "do you want to make money or be right?" i like making money and trading. already peeled one contract off @ 3120 for a pretty easy $1k buying a retrace after ben's Q&A (80 ticks x $12.5 x 1). 1 left and buying more when it dips to likely demand.
Oh, I certainly don't make any decisions based on CNBC's shills. Not to worry.

And whether I'd like to be right or make $$$? That's the easiest decision I'll face all month. Dough Rae Me please!
I didn't come to forex factory for validation. I am an independent trader and I've been though enough wars to know what works for me.

There are usually pips to be made in both directions and it's all about timing and staying true to your own plan.

Keep up the good work!
  • #68,059
  • Jul 12, 2013 2:23am Jul 12, 2013 2:23am
Hey PT - how's life?.....I just cracked up thinking of some female domination whilst watching a ceiling monitor - orgasmic trading...

Here's something that I posted in Sonic's thread to give the newbies something to chew on....as its a 4hr chart you might like it too...<:section class="content showthread threadtitle threadnav" sizset="0" sizcache036042098912309644="2">

Cheers

Islander

GM - not a lot happening so far this morning, so I've posted the UsdChf 4hr chart.

The Swiss Franc - Chf - is a very stable currency and thus the UsdChf pair is often used as a proxy for monitoring the movements of the US Dollar.

BB's speach on Wednesday sent the dollar straight down to that support area ~ the 50% retrace with its actual low at a **00 level and I guess that by now that should not surprise any Sonicers!

Yesterday afternoon there was another small sell off which so far has resulted in a Higher Low....so IF this holds - i.e. via the Buying of the Dollar that will suggest selling the dollar based pairs like Euro, GBP etc......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=1232034&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1373609637
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #68,060
  • Jul 12, 2013 2:30am Jul 12, 2013 2:30am
Quoting Islander
Hey PT - how's life?.....I just cracked up thinking of some female domination whilst watching a ceiling monitor - orgasmic trading... Here's something that I posted in Sonic's thread to give the newbies something to chew on....as its a 4hr chart you might like it too...<:section class="content showthread threadtitle threadnav" sizset="0" sizcache036042098912309644="2"> Cheers Islander GM - not a lot happening so far this morning, so I've posted the UsdChf 4hr chart. The Swiss Franc - Chf - is a very stable currency and thus the UsdChf...
Thanks for that m y friend. Actually I've been watching that USD/CHF demand zone very closely since Benn's Q&A. So far it's holding well

Hope all is well with you. Haven't seen you around so I just assumed you got picked up at the beach by some totally freaked out hottie
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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