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Sonic R. System

  • #53,001
  • Jul 8, 2013 11:11am Jul 8, 2013 11:11am
Quoting futurespeter
{quote} Closed AUDUSD long trade at 0.9124x (adjusted TP) for 62 pips gain. {image} {image}
Sweet Setups!!!!
Creditors have better memories than debtors.
  • #53,002
  • Jul 8, 2013 11:19am Jul 8, 2013 11:19am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Great job! That's the way! Now, going forward, try to use VSA to add to your position, experience what positive compounding of positions can do for you!

LoL

letīs see...

H.
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"The future is already written in the past"
  • #53,003
  • Jul 8, 2013 11:20am Jul 8, 2013 11:20am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Great job! That's the way! Now, going forward, try to use VSA to add to your position, experience what positive compounding of positions can do for you!

Thank's to all. Jmn5611 (and everybody), I understand you but I am afraid having issues with interpreting PVSRA. I refer to my posting short time ago.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...43#post6800143

Are we really interpreting the PVSRA correct? I ask because in uptrends the PVSRA indicates that the MM's are most of the time bears and in downtrends PVSRA indicates that the MM's are most of the time bulls. And this stands also for huge up- and downtrends which conflicts with my understanding. Do the MM's really build huge positions over thousands of pips and long time (many month or longer) against the trend (trade what you see)?

Thanks.

Regards

futurespeter
  • #53,004
  • Jul 8, 2013 11:26am Jul 8, 2013 11:26am
GJ: Market is in range. MMs like to close SHORTS and open LONGS below WHOLE NUMBERS. This is the case (151.000). MMs are BULLS.
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My mother language is Spanish, so, please, be patient with me.
  • #53,005
  • Jul 8, 2013 11:34am Jul 8, 2013 11:34am
GU Bears or Bulls:

We can see price is gradually being pushed up above the quarter SR level for accumulation. It would be better for the MMs if they push up above the half SR. Sorry, I currently do not have mt4 at the moment so not much volume specifics (if anyone does, they can add to my analysis for further confirmation or rejection! :-). My conclusion is that GU MMs are currently Bears. We can see them taking stops from the higher highs as well the fake breakout down. Let me know what you think guys.

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insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #53,006
  • Jul 8, 2013 11:37am Jul 8, 2013 11:37am
Quoting windelevel
PVSRA indicates that it will rise again? {image}
i have same dilemma.

my previous analysis was bear and entered short, but now it looks like keep pushing below the whole number = BULL

please anyone help.

picture is USDJPY 5 min chart, but 1 min chart shows the same: push below the whole number and relatively high volume.
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  • #53,007
  • Jul 8, 2013 11:44am Jul 8, 2013 11:44am
Quoting banteka
GJ: Market is in range. MMs like to close SHORTS and open LONGS below WHOLE NUMBERS. This is the case (151.000). MMs are BULLS. {image}

I get what you are saying. But from this chart, why wouldn't they close their shorts at the lower price before. Wouldn't it make more sense that " MMs like to close SHORTS and open LONGS below WHOLE NUMBERS" as the prices are coming from a downtrend. I think closing shorts would make sense if they drove prices down below (which is not this case). Since they are driving prices up to below whole numbers, it would make sense to me that they will close any longs they got from lower price action before, and now open up shorts. Thus, I see Bears. Let me know if I'm off on this.
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #53,008
  • Jul 8, 2013 11:56am Jul 8, 2013 11:56am
Quote
Are we really interpreting the PVSRA correct? I ask because in uptrends the PVSRA indicates that the MM's are most of the time bears and in downtrends PVSRA indicates that the MM's are most of the time bulls.

Hi futurespeter, im newbie here, and probably im wrong about this, but i think that the MM not only trade in one direction (uptrend or downtrend). I mean, the big players can build long position at the same time that they are trading short. In this manner, in a downtren they could be trading short pushing the prices down and building long positions for the next reversal to the uptrend. It is only a not very sure idea that i have thinking about. Sorry, if you dont understand very well what i want to say, is a little difficult for me write english (iīm trying to fix that).

For example: the yellow circle the MMs can be building long for the next reversal, and the same time they can moving prices down making profit in the downtrend

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Is that a crazy idea?
  • #53,009
  • Jul 8, 2013 12:02pm Jul 8, 2013 12:02pm
Quoting kapoera
{quote} Hi futurespeter, im newbie here, and probably im wrong about this, but i think that the MM not only trade in one direction (uptrend or downtrend). I mean, the big players can build long position at the same time that they are trading short. In this manner, in a downtren they could be trading short pushing the prices down and building long positions for the next reversal to the uptrend. It is only a not very sure idea that i have thinking about. Sorry, if you dont understand very well what i want to say, is a little difficult for me write...
I think I see your point, but I don't feel it. And here's why. The big players are only interested in BIG moves. I can't see why they would want to build little moves inside bigger moves. That doesn't make sense. However, I do see smaller players playing the smaller moves. Since we are talking about MM's, we have to assume they are driving for the bigger moves. The best thing to do is look on M1 and see at the peaks and bottoms, exactly what the volume is telling us. If they are driving the price down below SR levels (half or whole) and we see high volume at the bottom, then MM's are Bulls. If we see price driven up above SR levels with the peaks with high volume, then MMs are Bulls. And this is M1 volume. The chart you are showing is H1, look at the M1 chart.
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #53,010
  • Jul 8, 2013 12:08pm Jul 8, 2013 12:08pm
Which way sonikers ?

Any bets

Regards,

H.
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"The future is already written in the past"
  • #53,011
  • Jul 8, 2013 12:17pm Jul 8, 2013 12:17pm
Hi qFish. No, i think i expressed myself badly. The MMs always are looking for big moves, for hundreds pips. I want to say (i have the idea in my head, but i dont find the appropiate words, im trying it) that they can be building long (for example) in the range zones in a downtrend while they are making profits at the same time in the downtrend for the short orders that they put in a previous big uptrend. Im not trying to analize the picture, only i was trying to suggest my idea to futurespeter previous post with that image.

Regards
  • #53,012
  • Jul 8, 2013 12:22pm Jul 8, 2013 12:22pm
By the way, there is a possible Sonic classic entry in USD/CHF right now. Waiting for it...

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Regards
  • #53,013
  • Jul 8, 2013 12:22pm Jul 8, 2013 12:22pm
Quoting hansma
Which way sonikers ? Any bets Regards, H. {image}
I'm going to say Bears! See my analysis.

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insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #53,014
  • Jul 8, 2013 12:26pm Jul 8, 2013 12:26pm
Is now the PA broke support, will make Pulback and finally fall ??
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I am Brazilian and I never give up!
  • #53,015
  • Jul 8, 2013 12:29pm Jul 8, 2013 12:29pm
Quoting kapoera
Hi qFish. No, i think i expressed myself badly. The MMs always are looking for big moves, for hundreds pips. I want to say (i have the idea in my head, but i dont find the appropiate words, im trying it) that they can be building long (for example) in the range zones in a downtrend while they are making profits at the same time in the downtrend for the short orders that they put in a previous big uptrend. Im not trying to analize the picture, only i was trying to suggest my idea to futurespeter previous post with that image. Regards
No worries kapoera! I may have misunderstood you also :-). Sometimes, thinking out of the box we can find hidden clues and great ideas, so hold on to them. Just wanted to express my own views, not hammer on yours! Like you, I'm very new to PVSRA and trying to understand it also, along with all the contradictions (or misreading from myself). But that's why we post here, so the experience guys can help us out and fix us if we are wrong or don't see what they see. So by all means, express what you feel and believe. My words here, really, do not hold much strength or value as I'm not a veteran, but a newbie like yourself. Readers of this post knows who knows. But I post to hope that Tah and other experience traders will guide me in the right direction all for the purpose of becoming a better trader.

Keep it coming.
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #53,016
  • Jul 8, 2013 12:33pm Jul 8, 2013 12:33pm
Quoting qFish
{quote} I get what you are saying. But from this chart, why wouldn't they close their shorts at the lower price before. Wouldn't it make more sense that " MMs like to close SHORTS and open LONGS below WHOLE NUMBERS" as the prices are coming from a downtrend. I think closing shorts would make sense if they drove prices down below (which is not this case). Since they are driving prices up to below whole numbers, it would make sense to me that they will close any longs they got from lower price action before, and now open up shorts. Thus, I see Bears....

Well. It is the PVSRA theory. If you see the chapter titled "The SR in PVSRA" in the PVSRA.pdf document, the Bible of PVSRA, you'll read this:
"Bears like to move price above these levels to close longs/build shorts. Bulls like to move price below these levels to close shorts/build longs.".
My mother language is Spanish, so, please, be patient with me.
  • #53,017
  • Jul 8, 2013 12:43pm Jul 8, 2013 12:43pm
Quoting banteka
{quote} Well. It is the PVSRA theory. If you see the chapter titled "The SR in PVSRA" in the PVSRA.pdf document, the Bible of PVSRA, you'll read this: "Bears like to move price above these levels to close longs/build shorts. Bulls like to move price below these levels to close shorts/build longs.".
I understand you got that quote from PVSRA. I agree with it. But "Bears like to move price above these levels" but from where? From a higher price or lower price? That was my point. In your chart, price was moving up to a level below. Yes, it's below. But price was rising to that level. It makes more sense to me for prices to fall to below that level. Certainly, it's best if Bears build below levels and Bulls build above levels as the break is more powerful as it crosses. But the question I'm more concerned with is how it got to that level. From a down trend? From an uptrend? That's why a lot of PVSRA is counter intuitive (if you're see much of Tah's post). Most of the time, Bears will be moving in the opposite direction of the profit release. In this case, why would bull's bring price higher and build longs? And I think PVSRA tells you to analyze volume from M1 charts.
insanity: Doing the same thing over... and expecting different results -AE
  • #53,018
  • Jul 8, 2013 12:46pm Jul 8, 2013 12:46pm
Quoting banteka
{quote} Well. It is the PVSRA theory. If you see the chapter titled "The SR in PVSRA" in the PVSRA.pdf document, the Bible of PVSRA, you'll read this: "Bears like to move price above these levels to close longs/build shorts. Bulls like to move price below these levels to close shorts/build longs.".
PVSRA, GJ, Bulls or Bears?

banteka,

Step back and look at M15 again. You can see Friday the MMs pushed up the price above the half SR (yellow box) with high volume up/down. You can see today the MMs pushed the price above the whole SR (yellow rectangle). Here, we do not have distinguishing notable volume bars, so it makes the determination less assured. However, subjectively we see the general picture of GJ on the decline (large TF trend) and now the MMs are seeking to push prices up for better shorting. Also subjectively, the reason there might not have been notable volumes associated with the pushes today up thru the whole SR could be that there are no pending long orders up there to trigger and also that the shorters have wizend up and removed their SLs or moved them much higher so they cannot be hit. In other words, since the MMs have many times already pushed the price above this whole SR and now they are getting little for their efforts, says they have worked this area clean to the bone. Therefore, if they want to continue to build shorts ahead of the JPY high impact releases, they might have to start selloffs that take the price lower. We will see what happens. There is no way to be absolutely sure about this last point.
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  • #53,019
  • Jul 8, 2013 12:46pm Jul 8, 2013 12:46pm
No problem qFish , dont worry i dont take your point of view like hammer the mine. We are just talking and exposing our ideas, that is the way to learn more, and correcting us the veterans.
Banteka, it was a misunderstanding. It was my fault for my poor english, iīm trying to explain my vision of a bigger picture of uptrends and downtrends.

Regards
  • #53,020
  • Jul 8, 2013 12:46pm Jul 8, 2013 12:46pm
Quoting qFish
{quote} I understand you got that quote from PVSRA. I agree with it. But "Bears like to move price above these levels" but from where? From a higher price or lower price? That was my point. In your chart, price was moving up to a level below. Yes, it's below. But price was rising to that level. It makes more sense to me for prices to fall to below that level. Certainly, it's best if Bears build below levels and Bulls build above levels as the break is more powerful as it crosses. But the question I'm more concerned with is how it got to that level....
Very good questions. I cannot answer them. Maybe TAH could. It would be very interesting to see the evolution of that pair and see what happens...
My mother language is Spanish, so, please, be patient with me.
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