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  • #812,481
  • Jul 5, 2013 10:20am Jul 5, 2013 10:20am
Quoting attila
No LL so far. I'm still bullish <--- idiot.
hehe. This has been pretty rough. I am still on watch waiting for the H4 to start an uptrend... but that will happen when it does. Been sitting on my hands for most of this down, after I pulled the orders from my 3400 short.

Ohh, the life of a daily tf trader. Jump out of a play to soon and their is potential for it to be weeks before a re-entry.
  • #812,482
  • Jul 5, 2013 10:20am Jul 5, 2013 10:20am
Watch for European market close.

I think enough volume (consolidation if you like) has been gathered to flip table either way.

If eurodollar dips below 30 while usdjpy start going higher and dollar index testing intraday high, there will be a big drop. (calculated around min 5bn$)

But it works either way.
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #812,483
  • Jul 5, 2013 10:21am Jul 5, 2013 10:21am
ok guys bye
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been there done that, Good Bye
  • #812,484
  • Jul 5, 2013 10:24am Jul 5, 2013 10:24am
Quoting 1candlepower
{quote} most "academic" (is that peer-reviewed?) papers on fx aim to determine the statistical likelihood of success (the expectation value) using a particular strategy. they seldom try to tease out the underlying mechanism - which is an unmitigated good. personally, i only care in proportion to what's at stake. H+S is a joke if 50p is at risk. here, today and next week, we're looking at a potential drop of >1000p! i don't care if H+S patterns only work 1/3 of the time ... what i see H+S-wise is gonna get some consideration every trade i make....
Are you predicting a 1.19xx-1.20xx in the E/U next week? I am curious what data ( T/A & F/A ) supports that. Just asking from a teaching standpoint.
DO you have a retrace on this prediction?

I am just wondering what the FED element adds here ?

Thanks
  • #812,485
  • Jul 5, 2013 10:27am Jul 5, 2013 10:27am
Quoting Venice
{quote} IMO, the real identifier of a H&S... is the HL it creates on the right shoulder. Breaking the lows then gives you a LL and the potential start of the next down trend.
yes. that's why the double right shoulder is confusing me.
  • #812,486
  • Jul 5, 2013 10:32am Jul 5, 2013 10:32am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} so you went long too? and big long?
Since I start out small in my positions, I should weather this and another storm if it should go down to 1.27xx. I like my spread of positions to not be more than about 50 pips or so but I occasionally get caught in the unemployment claims. I was hoping to get out last night but as it turned out, I got some pretty good positions in. I've gone green on one of my positions so now its the waiting game.
Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #812,487
  • Jul 5, 2013 10:33am Jul 5, 2013 10:33am
This is the clearest trend that I can see in the Cable, I think I mentioned few weeks ago here or in the gbpusd thread...

Have a pending "jail" on it with everything TP .48400 / .52400, it's almost there... (not that I really care but... ).
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  • #812,488
  • Jul 5, 2013 10:37am Jul 5, 2013 10:37am
which side are you on for a trade ? bull or bear
  • #812,489
  • Jul 5, 2013 10:40am Jul 5, 2013 10:40am
Quoting SnaveForex
which side are you on for a trade ? bull or bear
so far green candles last 3 hours
  • #812,490
  • Jul 5, 2013 10:42am Jul 5, 2013 10:42am
Quoting Z3iz3i
Watch for European market close. I think enough volume (consolidation if you like) has been gathered to flip table either way. If eurodollar dips below 30 while usdjpy start going higher and dollar index testing intraday high, there will be a big drop. (calculated around min 5bn$) But it works either way.
jam packed with lots and money last stop overshoot for bears 47 56 range bulls can continue all they want
  • #812,491
  • Jul 5, 2013 10:43am Jul 5, 2013 10:43am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} had a bad day?.. are you saying all the bean counters from many administrations are allowing this. if your a bad trader its u.
No, I am just making a comment how 'nothing news' can make such an impact. I'm not blaming anyone for anything. It just seems silly for something that doesn't affect anything can change or augment a course in currency.

I wouldn't call myself a bad trader. I did 28% last month. Do I make bad trades? Of course and this is one of them maybe. If I don't over position so I usually get through the turn around in the green. It's all good...
Taigen Profit This Month: na
  • #812,492
  • Jul 5, 2013 10:49am Jul 5, 2013 10:49am
2837.5 is the key number here
  • #812,493
  • Jul 5, 2013 10:54am Jul 5, 2013 10:54am
Quoting Z3iz3i
Watch for European market close. I think enough volume (consolidation if you like) has been gathered to flip table either way. If eurodollar dips below 30 while usdjpy start going higher and dollar index testing intraday high, there will be a big drop. (calculated around min 5bn$) But it works either way.
how do you calculate the money involved?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #812,494
  • Jul 5, 2013 10:56am Jul 5, 2013 10:56am
Quoting PROstrength
{quote} Are you predicting a 1.19xx-1.20xx in the E/U next week? I am curious what data ( T/A & F/A ) supports that. Just asking from a teaching standpoint. DO you have a retrace on this prediction? I am just wondering what the FED element adds here ? Thanks
the "rule" for H+S patterns is that the price move beyond the neckline should about equal the distance of the head above (or below) the neckline. my original post on this was a little hasty... more accurate figs are:
a. distance of head from neckline (feb 1) is actually closer to 1075 pips,
b. extension down from neckline is break occurs in next few days is really about 1810 (not 1750).
a good wiki summary can be found here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Head_an...art_pattern%29 (that was what "by the book" meant)

the fed thing concerns me... all joking aside, i really do believe these CB guys plan a lot of this stuff behind closed doors to serve purposes you and i will never be privy to. ben seems to be okay with a strong dollar policy - don't know why - AG and Hank P always said that and you knew they were lying... bernanke's not even saying it! go figure.

so maybe the fed and treasury are willing to let the dollar rise to 85 and above. gotta consider it.
  • #812,495
  • Jul 5, 2013 11:01am Jul 5, 2013 11:01am
Quoting WhiteHorse
next week gonna be semi bullish
almost peed my pants laughing...What kind of bullshit is this?

You canīt by partly bullish you complete tool...You are either bullish, bearish or sidelined and thatīs about it...
Quant Hedge Fund CEO
  • #812,496
  • Jul 5, 2013 11:05am Jul 5, 2013 11:05am
Quoting SnaveForex
2837.5 is the key number here
How come?
Quant Hedge Fund CEO
  • #812,497
  • Jul 5, 2013 11:10am Jul 5, 2013 11:10am
Quoting 1candlepower
{quote} the "rule" for H+S patterns is that the price move beyond the neckline should about equal the distance of the head above (or below) the neckline. my original post on this was a little hasty... more accurate figs are: a. distance of head from neckline (feb 1) is actually closer to 1075 pips, b. extension down from neckline is break occurs in next few days is really about 1810 (not 1750). a good wiki summary can be found here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Head_an...art_pattern%29 (that was what "by the book" meant)...
Thanks for the detailed response. I appreciate that. I am guessing every trader in the universe that trades E/U is going short again then based on this conclusion. In my short tenure I am used to seeing somewhat of a retrace, and I have not really seen that, so this had me questioning what is going on at the moment. I thought at least a bounce of 50-60pips up before another downturn. what say you?
Thanks again for your assistance.
  • #812,498
  • Jul 5, 2013 11:17am Jul 5, 2013 11:17am
Moving trendline working like a charm...

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  • #812,499
  • Jul 5, 2013 11:18am Jul 5, 2013 11:18am
I really want to buy a long here, but I agree, the "force" is not with us at the moment.
  • #812,500
  • Jul 5, 2013 11:19am Jul 5, 2013 11:19am
Since there is a lot of speculation on the site, I'll do a little of my own. If you look at the monthly chart say from 2008 to now, you definitely see a harmonic convergence (sorry for the math lingo) taking place. If it continues to follow the rather long pattern, it should hit around the 1.40 mark before it hits the low 1.20's. How that helps with trading I don't have a clue but I did think it was interesting trivia.
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Taigen Profit This Month: na
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