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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #35,041
  • Jul 5, 2013 7:44am Jul 5, 2013 7:44am
I will buy too but this time only .01 I want to enjoy profit now what I earned
Quoting flipnfaith
{quote} Let them ride... 103.-- is the next level of resistance
  • #35,042
  • Jul 5, 2013 7:52am Jul 5, 2013 7:52am
usjy good. made 16 pips scalping.

euus, lost 0.8 pip. I don't like euus.
  • #35,043
  • Jul 5, 2013 7:52am Jul 5, 2013 7:52am
This usd/jpy making me uncomfortable...taking too long...
  • #35,044
  • Jul 5, 2013 7:55am Jul 5, 2013 7:55am
Quoting Ulterior
{quote} well, it seems I lost
time to update your statistics spreadsheet to make sure you logic still has an edge.

I am new to news thing and scalping only. euus seem to be pain in the ass. at least at present.
  • #35,045
  • Jul 5, 2013 7:59am Jul 5, 2013 7:59am
from big picture point of view, USJY decided it is going UP as move from 100 is decisive.
  • #35,046
  • Jul 5, 2013 8:00am Jul 5, 2013 8:00am
Quoting pbylina
This usd/jpy making me uncomfortable...taking too long...

yeah...it is taking too long

but i move my stop to break even already...so i'm going to let it run
  • #35,047
  • Jul 5, 2013 8:10am Jul 5, 2013 8:10am
Quoting Doboy408
{quote} yeah...it is taking too long but i move my stop to break even already...so i'm going to let it run
had my long at 84 stopped out at breakeven+1. now long from .01...
  • #35,048
  • Jul 5, 2013 8:56am Jul 5, 2013 8:56am
Price broke 101, so if you believe it is going up just leave it to rise. This guy is nearly right, there is a possible pause just below 102, again at 102.50, and the major resistance is at 103.20. If you are trying to get back in then buy small contracts and build on them as price rises.

Today it was possible to predict a safe long before the numbers were out because of the following market fundamentals. Thinking about the recent FOMC statement and other central banks; if the numbers were upside surprise what would the market make of it? When BB spooked the markets by announcing the conditions that would cause them to start thinking about tapering, the dollar firmed suddenly and stock markets crashed around the world. Then a few people pointed out that he said 'if' and things settled down again. So big numbers on the NFP would reinforce that 'if' scenario and drive USD higher. Anything else would cause no change, possibly a large undershoot in NFP would have been viewed as 'risk-off' and again driven the dollar higher, although possibly also the Yen in this latter case.

IMHO it is going to have to be Japanese news that takes UJ down significantly.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #35,049
  • Jul 5, 2013 11:34am Jul 5, 2013 11:34am
Hope this is the sign for long...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy - 5 july 2013.png Size: 30 KB
  • #35,050
  • Jul 5, 2013 3:03pm Jul 5, 2013 3:03pm
UJ GAP UP weekend
  • #35,051
  • Jul 5, 2013 3:23pm Jul 5, 2013 3:23pm
Quoting Exodus
Price broke 101, so if you believe it is going up just leave it to rise. This guy is nearly right, there is a possible pause just below 102, again at 102.50, and the major resistance is at 103.20. If you are trying to get back in then buy small contracts and build on them as price rises. Today it was possible to predict a safe long before the numbers were out because of the following market fundamentals. Thinking about the recent FOMC statement and other central banks; if...

Agree...long term...long UJ is probably the safest bet now right.
Two major fundamental driving this is Fed tapering(soon) and BOJ easing.
I would take some major downward pressure to overpower the FED and BOJ. I dont really see anything that can do that aside from JGB spiking...but it seems the BOJ has gotten that issue under control.
  • #35,052
  • Jul 6, 2013 12:26am Jul 6, 2013 12:26am
this is a great discussion, i am very happy to hear everyone's insight. it makes my trading that much more interesting as i can see other people's perspective on the market
Better to win one trade a week than to lose many a day.
  • #35,053
  • Jul 6, 2013 6:50am Jul 6, 2013 6:50am
Quoting Dano12
{image}

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1372798674

yep
  • #35,054
  • Jul 6, 2013 6:46pm Jul 6, 2013 6:46pm
I'd like to see a pull back to the 100.15 ish level. then reload the long.
  • #35,055
  • Jul 7, 2013 8:46am Jul 7, 2013 8:46am
Quoting flipnfaith
I'd like to see a pull back to the 100.15 ish level. then reload the long.
I actually did something I said I wouldn't do again... went short few minutes before close of markets on Friday at 101.20 with a TP of 100.15...

But now, I actually expect this to go as low as 99.50... then I will load up on longs... we will see...

I hope you are right
  • #35,056
  • Jul 7, 2013 10:28am Jul 7, 2013 10:28am
Quoting Trader221
{quote} I actually did something I said I wouldn't do again... went short few minutes before close of markets on Friday at 101.20 with a TP of 100.15... But now, I actually expect this to go as low as 99.50... then I will load up on longs... we will see... I hope you are right

Do you have any indications that the USDJPY will go down instead of just going straight up?
  • #35,057
  • Jul 7, 2013 11:18am Jul 7, 2013 11:18am
Quoting Trader221
{quote} I actually did something I said I wouldn't do again... went short few minutes before close of markets on Friday at 101.20 with a TP of 100.15... But now, I actually expect this to go as low as 99.50... then I will load up on longs... we will see... I hope you are right
What you did was pure gambling.If you want to succeed as a trader then you must ask yourself before every trade "what is my edge"
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #35,058
  • Jul 7, 2013 11:24am Jul 7, 2013 11:24am
In my view which is harmonic biased I am waiting price to reach 101.60 78.6fib
According to Scott Carney this is "last chance" price may reverse if violated price often violates the original high.
So to me 101.60 is the key confluence area of importance.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.h4.png Size: 42 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #35,059
  • Jul 7, 2013 12:16pm Jul 7, 2013 12:16pm
Hi Davit,

I respect your and Scott Carney' opinions. However, I have a different view

We will retest the low of Japanese session set on 04 July which is the 99.50 area. 'My edge' is my crazy theories After much research & studying... I came to the conclusion that my mind is unique and I will follow it!

The jobs report on Friday didn't convince everyone and it's impact is to be limited. Coupled with the worsening situation in Egypt, think oil and Suez Canal, I believe we will have enough negativity to see southward move.

But that's just me and my 'unique' mind It's been proving wrong before... but it's learning...
  • #35,060
  • Jul 7, 2013 12:28pm Jul 7, 2013 12:28pm
Quoting Trader221
Hi Davit, I respect your and Scott Carney' opinions. However, I have a different view We will retest the low of Japanese session set on 04 July which is the 99.50 area. 'My edge' is my crazy theories After much research & studying... I came to the conclusion that my mind is unique and I will follow it! The jobs report on Friday didn't convince everyone and it's impact is to be limited. Coupled with the worsening situation in Egypt, think oil and Suez Canal, I believe we will have enough negativity to see southward move. But that's just me...
if your right, then thats wonderful news for some of us but regarding Egypt, things are stabilizing, they have a new government. If that holds, then things will go in another direction.
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