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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #67,921
  • Jul 2, 2013 4:18pm Jul 2, 2013 4:18pm
Quoting chess king
{quote} TL breaks down ... 281x can be the target... if not and hold, PA can reach 318x ...
I'm only targeting 1.2900/10 which is the measured move from the confirmed H/S pattern on the H4 chart which I posted about early last week. >>> http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...71#post6778871

Quoting PipTrapper
EUR/USD PA outlook Yesterday's inability to break back above the H1/H4 Head & Shoulders neckline at 1.3150 confirms a measured move down to around 1.2900 This is calculated by measuring the spread between the neckline at the start of the right shoulder (1.3160) and the top of the head (1.3415) and subtracting it from the neckline break price (1.3155). The spread is 255pips and once subtracted from the break price of 1.3155 produces a measured target of 1.2900 Sorry cannot post my chart coz my screen capture feature has malfunctioned. However a quick...
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #67,922
  • Jul 2, 2013 4:28pm Jul 2, 2013 4:28pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I'm only targeting 1.2900/10 which is the measured move from the confirmed H/S pattern on the H4 chart which I posted about early last week. >>> http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...71#post6778871 {quote}

certainly will be an exciting week..
  • #67,923
  • Jul 2, 2013 4:50pm Jul 2, 2013 4:50pm
Quoting BoringIsGood
{quote} I've tried too many times to wait for a bounce, then get left behind and end up chasing the market. If I spot what I think is a large trend, I'd rather just ride it. GL to us both. In other words: Never f#ck with a 3rd wave
I've been waiting for a bounce too...
Technically would be very "healthful" to have some larger correction before a further move down.
But this is a NEWS week, so most of big players stay aside waiting for numbers release on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #67,924
  • Jul 2, 2013 5:07pm Jul 2, 2013 5:07pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Seriously I don't think that trend line is going to hold. There is much more significant PA at play here, such as a monthly and a weekly Outside 3 pattern... not to mention the fact that today we had another outside day reversal. {image}
Yes...
Daily candles are sending BEARISH signals, but I'd consider also another support line on Daily and Bullish divergence on 4H charts.
I would like to see some correction first, as this may get technical analysis easier, and then wheeeeeee.....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusddaily.png Size: 54 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdh4.png Size: 51 KB
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #67,925
  • Jul 3, 2013 1:39am Jul 3, 2013 1:39am
Quoting Vtmn
still holding shorts from yesterday, not sure what im waiting for thought, 0.9125?
closed my shorts 0.9065, considering re enter 0.9145


"Stevens: Surprised FX market took so long to push A$ lower" hey dude, lets do it together
How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
  • #67,926
  • Jul 3, 2013 2:16am Jul 3, 2013 2:16am
Quoting halkins
{quote} Yes... Daily candles are sending BEARISH signals, but I'd consider also another support line on Daily and Bullish divergence on 4H charts. I would like to see some correction first, as this may get technical analysis easier, and then wheeeeeee..... {image} {image}
Trend line is now broken. 1.2940 is the next area of tough support.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #67,927
  • Jul 3, 2013 2:18am Jul 3, 2013 2:18am
Quoting Vtmn
{quote} closed my shorts 0.9065, considering re enter 0.9145 "Stevens: Surprised FX market took so long to push A$ lower" hey dude, lets do it together
Well done bro
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #67,928
  • Jul 3, 2013 4:39am Jul 3, 2013 4:39am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Trend line is now broken. 1.2940 is the next area of tough support.
Yes... it was still hesitating but completely broke at 8am.
For now the strong support line visible on DAILY holds the price.
We'll see if NY and today's ADP will push this further down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusddaily.png Size: 61 KB
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #67,929
  • Jul 3, 2013 10:33am Jul 3, 2013 10:33am
Quoting halkins
{quote} Yes... it was still hesitating but completely broke at 8am. For now the strong support line visible on DAILY holds the price. We'll see if NY and today's ADP will push this further down. {image}
Well I guess I didn't notice that the USD hit some key resistance so it had to correct.
Therefore an E/U bounce was expected... I just didn't see it.
Anyway, this is only a temporary setback for my shorts. The USD will continue its rocket ship trajectory soon.
To da moon Alice

Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #67,930
  • Jul 3, 2013 10:41am Jul 3, 2013 10:41am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Well I guess I didn't notice that the USD hit some key resistance so it had to correct. Therefore an E/U bounce was expected... I just didn't see it. Anyway, this is only a temporary setback for my shorts. The USD will continue its rocket ship trajectory soon. To da moon Alice {image}
Oh yes PT... weekly, daily charts say wheeeeee, wheeeee :-)
But at least now I can apply some FIBO levels and watch them.
I love clear visible tops and bottoms and hate those "maybe here" levels, as we had in last three days.
Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #67,931
  • Jul 3, 2013 12:11pm Jul 3, 2013 12:11pm
I would like to wish all those from the US of A a very happy July 4th holiday.

The US markets would normally be quiet on the 4th of July, but since Draghi is speaking tomorrow and we have the NFP report on Friday, I hesitate to associate low volume with low volatility. On the contrary, the next two days should provide some pretty wild swings starting with the ECB rate statement tomorrow.

Bon chance a tout.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #67,932
  • Jul 3, 2013 8:51pm Jul 3, 2013 8:51pm
Quoting PipTrapper
I would like to wish all those from the US of A a very happy July 4th holiday. The US markets would normally be quiet on the 4th of July, but since Draghi is speaking tomorrow and we have the NFP report on Friday, I hesitate to associate low volume with low volatility. On the contrary, the next two days should provide some pretty wild swings starting with the ECB rate statement tomorrow. Bon chance a tout.

happy 4th July !

going away for a day to celebrate my birthday, take care
How to Win at Sports Betting: DON'T DO IT!
  • #67,933
  • Jul 4, 2013 4:37am Jul 4, 2013 4:37am
Quoting Vtmn
{quote} happy 4th July ! going away for a day to celebrate my birthday, take care
Happy Birthday
  • #67,934
  • Jul 4, 2013 7:43am Jul 4, 2013 7:43am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I'm only targeting 1.2900/10 which is the measured move from the confirmed H/S pattern on the H4 chart which I posted about early last week. >>> http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...71#post6778871 {quote}
Thanks you Super Mario. You did it again

Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #67,935
  • Jul 4, 2013 8:09am Jul 4, 2013 8:09am
Quoting NZ Chris
{quote} {quote} so I can afford to wait for an opportunity.
And the opportunity presents itself...

Aussie next?
Short Euro and remaining that way. That's just the way it is !
  • #67,936
  • Jul 4, 2013 8:14am Jul 4, 2013 8:14am
Quoting NZ Chris
{quote} And the opportunity presents itself... Aussie next?
Yes I am waiting for a significant Aussie correction which will cause AUD/NZD to also correct upwards. Patience is key... always and forever.

Re: the E/U pair, at 1.2810 we have the neck line of a massive... no actually a gargantuan head and shoulders pattern which (if broken and confirmed) should see the pair eventually re-test and most likely break the 2012 lows. With this one, patience is definitely key.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #67,937
  • Jul 4, 2013 8:18am Jul 4, 2013 8:18am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Patience is key... always and forever.
Ah yes, that little nugget. Patience, my biggest enemy.......
Short Euro and remaining that way. That's just the way it is !
  • #67,938
  • Jul 4, 2013 8:48am Jul 4, 2013 8:48am
Quoting NZ Chris
{quote} Ah yes, that little nugget. Patience, my biggest enemy.......
Patience is not the ability to wait, but the ability to maintain a good attitude while you wait.

Two things define people in life...
1. Patience when they have nothing
2. Attitude when they have everything.

Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #67,939
  • Jul 5, 2013 3:28am Jul 5, 2013 3:28am
hi, PT
i am ready to Long the euro-aussie @ 1.4
do you agree with me ?
i really appreciate whatever your advice, thanks.
  • #67,940
  • Jul 5, 2013 6:12am Jul 5, 2013 6:12am
Quoting andan
hi, PT i am ready to Long the euro-aussie @ 1.4 do you agree with me ? i really appreciate whatever your advice, thanks.
Hi andan.. I cannot tell you how to trade. Everyone has their own style and risk appetite/aversion profile.

However, what I will say is this... I do not feel that it is wise to place trades on long Euro positions after Draghi was so dovish the day before, especially just before the US NFP statement. What I prefer is to wait until the number is released and then measure market sentiment afterwards. In fact this morning I lightened up the load in my order book by taking profit on many of my positions. Now I will wait to see what happens in 1.5 hours and also how the market reacts to it in the hour that follows.

One must also keep in mind that although it is quite possible for the AUD to keep falling, Prudent traders would realize that it is long overdue for a correction. Such a correction in the AUD with such a bearish sentiment in the EUR would more likely indicate further bearish movement in the EUR/AUD

Of course this is only my view and I could be wrong.

One more thing... If I was looking to go long the EUR/AUD, I would wait till it corrects all the way back down to 1.32 where it broke above the previous high. It has still to retest it as support. Of course it's not going to happen any time soon, but I see that area as unfinished business.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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