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Do you believe moving average systems work?

  • #141
  • Jun 28, 2013 8:09am Jun 28, 2013 8:09am
Yeah I think MA crossovers are one of the best in FX because it is super objective and allows you to ride that motha trend. I paid the $2500 and bought Tradingblox to tweak a simple MA crossover system. MM is the buiggest part in these startgies and I found if you use a ATR as for your stop it is the best because you can keep your losses small and and have a relative tight SL compared to your winners. I did forwrd test it too with my broker to see what it would be like trading it and damn you basically have to have a ton of confidence because it can beat the crap out of you until your limbs are busted and you can barely walk, then maybe you get some profit. Or if you want to be grandma and only risk a tiny bit then that works too but will be crap returns too.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #142
  • Jun 28, 2013 8:36am Jun 28, 2013 8:36am
Quoting Ozs33
To: Sharhoor! i was reading your thread on exit strategy and I wanted to say that one should never place a trade without knowing the trade exit point and the stop loss . Assuming one is going long on a trade, the exit point should be 2 to 3 pips/ticks bellow the nearest relative support / supply zone. This way we avoid greed and lock more on profit. If going short the nears support/demand zone with 2 to 3 ticks above it. And of course risk/reward ratio has to be at least 3 to 1 or I don' trade. A good system should signal you that you shouldn't...
Thanks Ozs , the issue with S&R that it is very subjective and when markets trend it goes through those levels fairly easily at times. We are trying to maximise our profits as this will help us make up for our losses during choppy markets. Having said that I am trying to incorporate this in our system but using recent price action rather than historical levels ie when price stalls around same level with clear rejection as demonstrated on my previous chart we know it is warning signal to exit either fully or partially.
with regards to R/R although I haven't finalised that step yet but we will be looking for a lot more than 3 to 1 maybe 10 to 1
  • #143
  • Jun 28, 2013 8:40am Jun 28, 2013 8:40am
Quoting Rtm
Yeah I think MA crossovers are one of the best in FX because it is super objective and allows you to ride that motha trend. I paid the $2500 and bought Tradingblox to tweak a simple MA crossover system. MM is the buiggest part in these startgies and I found if you use a ATR as for your stop it is the best because you can keep your losses small and and have a relative tight SL compared to your winners. I did forwrd test it too with my broker to see what it would be like trading it and damn you basically have to have a ton of confidence because it...
RTM you are absolutely right about MM , its the key to this MA system and we need to play this in a smart way to make the system profitable over the long run, that#s why I left it to the end so we can tweak it according to our system profitability /win&loss expectation
  • #144
  • Jun 28, 2013 10:01am Jun 28, 2013 10:01am
FIRST RULE OF TRADING = SAFEGUARD YOUR MONEY.
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I have finished trading for the week. This 1 hour chart hopefully will convey how I hope to trade after sunday regarding ma cross.
first of all,, this helped me today .. 1 was outside bar.. 2 was an outside bar too but the long was busted, hopefully for me my long trigger was not activated lol but my short was. this was open breakout stuff..and 3 this is the one I am looking at to hopefully trade the ema cross.
If it continues to drop and gets close to the brown 30 ema I will be then watching it on the 10 min chart and as soon as the 10 min drops under the 30 ema I will be shorting. I have noticed that doing this I can get into a trade very early and get out.
This trade might never happen as who knows what will happen lol.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #145
  • Jun 28, 2013 10:06am Jun 28, 2013 10:06am
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If the hour chart drops as I said I would then be looking at the 10 min chart for something like this for an entry, Pity this was not a Monday morning lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #146
  • Jun 28, 2013 11:02am Jun 28, 2013 11:02am
well we just had an inside bar on hour chart e/j time 17-02 in uk, lets see this might be the start of a good thing, pity it is friday
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #147
  • Jun 28, 2013 11:37pm Jun 28, 2013 11:37pm
this is like worst case scenario

H1 and 120 + 30 ema, 120 is blue and 30 turns to blue again, it is long trade
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  • #148
  • Jun 28, 2013 11:41pm Jun 28, 2013 11:41pm
so, change to M1, and take it from there, max few points minus, yes, multitimeframeshit
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  • #149
  • Jun 29, 2013 12:39am Jun 29, 2013 12:39am
They work if you want them to, everything works after the fact and often nothing works if applied before the facts. Trading is a wast land of insecurity and anxiety because it is not defined, has not boundaries and for those reasons traders needs to find a tool that are a justification for their decisions that will also tamper their anxiety.

In brief indicators are just a consequence or distortion of price and if trading is already difficult just looking at price, why will it be easier looking at its distortion?

My advise is to leave only price on the chart and learn how it moves, probably thousand of hours of screen time is needed before you can take advantage of it.
  • #150
  • Jun 29, 2013 1:06am Jun 29, 2013 1:06am
Quoting Kingscalp
They work if you want them to, everything works after the fact and often nothing works if applied before the facts. Trading is a wast land of insecurity and anxiety because it is not defined, has not boundaries and for those reasons traders needs to find a tool that are a justification for their decisions that will also tamper their anxiety. In brief indicators are just a consequence or distortion of price and if trading is already difficult just looking at price, why will it be easier looking at its distortion? My advise is to leave only price...
hi,,, Kingscalp,
I think you know what you are doing
because of what my uncle said something like that
my uncle working in the financial industry
if there is something you should keep secret,simply just save it,, so, just
  • #151
  • Jun 29, 2013 2:14am Jun 29, 2013 2:14am
Quoting sandycarrot
{quote} hi,,, Kingscalp, I think you know what you are doing because of what my uncle said something like that my uncle working in the financial industry
Hi Sandy

You know, I was thinking exactly the same about you, then you confirmed it to me yesterday calling the top and explaining it.


Time for you to get on my buddy list.
  • #152
  • Jun 29, 2013 3:13am Jun 29, 2013 3:13am
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This is the kind of chart I will trade off using crossover (my term)..
B = hour candle moving to 30 ema and on 10 min chart (not shown) entry I good.
please note I have not traded this as it was almost at Friday close and I do not hold over weekend (ok sometimes I do but rare) lets see how it goes for the open.

B = is for inside bar for the price action people, be good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #153
  • Jun 29, 2013 3:21am Jun 29, 2013 3:21am
Quoting Kingscalp
They work if you want them to, everything works after the fact and often nothing works if applied before the facts. Trading is a wast land of insecurity and anxiety because it is not defined, has not boundaries and for those reasons traders needs to find a tool that are a justification for their decisions that will also tamper their anxiety. In brief indicators are just a consequence or distortion of price and if trading is already difficult just looking at price, why will it be easier looking at its distortion? My advise is to leave only price...
hello, what you say above is true. PRICE ACTION is simply the best as Tina Turner sang but this is a Moving Average Thread and so people are here to speak about trading methods.
I trade price action as in inside/outside bars and the old method of open range breakout But I am trying out a crossover method which is running at over 90% for the last 4/5 months BUT only small value of £1 per pip. and one can never get away from the TURTLES the people who worked off moving averages AND Price action, be good and trade well , I am off fishing now
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #154
  • Jun 29, 2013 3:42am Jun 29, 2013 3:42am
they work insanely well...

most people just dont understand how they work


EAs with moving averages can work... but you have to be very creative...

i use them religiously... with a chart like this, how could you not?

moving averages are not that hard to understand if you stare at charts long enough.


they are just a guide however, for mental confidence... momentum and price action is always the trigger.
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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #155
  • Jun 29, 2013 3:50am Jun 29, 2013 3:50am
Quoting billytt
{quote} hello, what you say above is true. PRICE ACTION is simply the best as Tina Turner sang but this is a Moving Average Thread and so people are here to speak about trading methods. I trade price action as in inside/outside bars and the old method of open range breakout But I am trying out a crossover method which is running at over 90% for the last 4/5 months BUT only small value of £1 per pip. and one can never get away from the TURTLES the people who worked off moving averages AND Price action, be good and trade well , I am off fishing now...
Billytt

Yes, Tina:

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  • #156
  • Jun 29, 2013 9:18am Jun 29, 2013 9:18am
Quoting shahroor
{quote} Now have a look at the daily chart and tell me what you think {image}
Exit when the fastest MA derivative (hope this is the right mathematical word...) changes sign.

But the moving average strategies LOVE trending pairs, so this is not really an issue...

The issue is in non trending markets... I always like to focus where it hurts
  • #157
  • Jun 29, 2013 9:22am Jun 29, 2013 9:22am
Why not just trade the 3 ducks, or maybe the turtle system?

I said the turtles because there is almost no difference between moving average and channel systems. They all look for time frame alignment.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #158
  • Jun 29, 2013 2:21pm Jun 29, 2013 2:21pm
Quoting RBlackburn
I'd prefer to use them as a guide (ranging or trending) You can't deny tha 50, 100, 200 MA etc provide s/r
Yes I can. You see what you want to see....at some point it's going to look great and that's all the validation you want even though your account is slowly bleeding dry.

As far as the original topic question goes....with moving averages alone and over a long term market? No. I don't believe that for a second.
  • #159
  • Edited 1:34am Jun 30, 2013 1:03am | Edited 1:34am
Hi again,

Maybe you know this old study (Citygroup) on trending strategies ?

http://www.google.fr/url?sa=t&rct=j&...48572450,d.Yms

It seems to be working, but with other strategies in parallel and mixing criteria.

Don't put all our eggs in a single basket.
  • #160
  • Jun 30, 2013 1:51am Jun 30, 2013 1:51am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Yes I can. You see what you want to see....at some point it's going to look great and that's all the validation you want even though your account is slowly bleeding dry. As far as the original topic question goes....with moving averages alone and over a long term market? No. I don't believe that for a second.
They definately work, but the use of them is some what tricky, I trade off a High and Low SMA's, gives a range to work off rather than a single exact number.

100sma and 900sma M1, ( well with M5 so 20 and 180 ) are my prefered MA's at the moment.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
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