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Do you believe moving average systems work?

  • #121
  • Jun 27, 2013 11:35am Jun 27, 2013 11:35am
Turveyd Hi Bud how are you
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #122
  • Jun 27, 2013 11:43am Jun 27, 2013 11:43am
Quoting billytt
Turveyd Hi Bud how are you
Not so bad I guess, trading again recently a M5 MA mainly based system and nice results so far, 7wins 0 losers this week, made 3 SL hits really!!

You ??
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #123
  • Jun 27, 2013 11:48am Jun 27, 2013 11:48am
Quoting shahroor
Guys have a look at this EU chart for example and pay attention to the highlighted areas, these represent swings high and low ie price dropped or bounced significantly after touching these levels. Do you notice something that could help us with our exit strategy? {image}
going back to this chart, I didnt get many comments so I assume you didnt spot anything useful on that chart relating to our exit, but the good news is that I did see something very promising

If you look at the highlighted areas on the weekly chart of EU, you can see that at major tops and bottoms the market in most cases hovered around for few weeks before turning the opposite direction , this is extremely useful and would give us two, three or may be four opportunities to get out on daily chart when momentum is fading.
The only exception is the blue areas where the market turned around the following week , in which case we have to accept a loss or a smaller profit
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_283 Jun. 26 00.45.jpg Size: 97 KB
  • #124
  • Jun 27, 2013 2:26pm Jun 27, 2013 2:26pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Not so bad I guess, trading again recently a M5 MA mainly based system and nice results so far, 7wins 0 losers this week, made 3 SL hits really!! You ??
I am good, tradings going ok and i been testing an ema cross over method (OR it doesn't actually crossover)lol but it has been quite successful
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #125
  • Jun 27, 2013 2:59pm Jun 27, 2013 2:59pm
Interesting thread and discussion. Subscribed.

TF
Prices are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling.
  • #126
  • Jun 27, 2013 3:07pm Jun 27, 2013 3:07pm
Quoting turtlefan
Interesting thread and discussion. Subscribed. TF
welcome on board, feel free to add value to our system development
  • #127
  • Jun 27, 2013 3:16pm Jun 27, 2013 3:16pm
Quoting shahroor
{quote} going back to this chart, I didnt get many comments so I assume you didnt spot anything useful on that chart relating to our exit, but the good news is that I did see something very promising If you look at the highlighted areas on the weekly chart of EU, you can see that at major tops and bottoms the market in most cases hovered around for few weeks before turning the opposite direction , this is extremely useful and would give us two, three or may be four opportunities to get out on daily chart when momentum is fading. The only exception...
So in theory the above observation means we can exit the position at the top/bottom in most cases , have you ever thought that was possible , well according to the above observation it is possible in 13 out of 17 cases !!
  • #128
  • Jun 27, 2013 3:18pm Jun 27, 2013 3:18pm
Lets have a closer look at one of these highlighted areas to see what is going on on the daily chart, this way we can see whether it is practically possible to exit at tops and bottoms ?
  • #129
  • Jun 27, 2013 3:36pm Jun 27, 2013 3:36pm
Quoting shahroor
Lets have a closer look at one of these highlighted areas to see what is going on on the daily chart, this way we can see whether it is practically possible to exit at tops and bottoms ?
Now have a look at the daily chart and tell me what you think
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_290 Jun. 27 21.36.jpg Size: 163 KB
  • #130
  • Jun 27, 2013 3:43pm Jun 27, 2013 3:43pm
obviously this is not our only exit rule but its a a significant observation that we need to incorporate into our exit strategy to maximise trade profits
  • #131
  • Jun 27, 2013 3:52pm Jun 27, 2013 3:52pm
It all looks easy and obvious after the event, but live sadly we have to accept there is no perfect solution, even the best of us are just guessing, yes I can pick a short term top, but I have NO idea at all, if it'll pull back 10pips or 200pips before heading higher.

You can't go broke banking profits, as long as you control your losers.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #132
  • Jun 27, 2013 4:09pm Jun 27, 2013 4:09pm
Quoting Turveyd
It all looks easy and obvious after the event, but live sadly we have to accept there is no perfect solution, even the best of us are just guessing, yes I can pick a short term top, but I have NO idea at all, if it'll pull back 10pips or 200pips before heading higher. You can't go broke banking profits, as long as you control your losers.
you are right , the whole idea is to maximise profits but once I put things into context it will all start to make more sense. at the end of the day as you said if we get out with good profits we would have reached our goal.

Greed is a major influential factor in delayed exit and considering this observation we have a guide that its definitely time to get out of the market but believe me you will be surprised how many times that turns out to be the closest you would exit near a top or bottom
  • #133
  • Jun 27, 2013 4:21pm Jun 27, 2013 4:21pm
To: Sharhoor!

i was reading your thread on exit strategy and I wanted to say that one should never place a trade without knowing the trade exit point and the stop loss . Assuming one is going long on a trade, the exit point should be 2 to 3 pips/ticks bellow the nearest relative support / supply zone. This way we avoid greed and lock more on profit. If going short the nears suppot/demand zone with 2 to 3 ticks above it. And of course risk/reward ratio has to be at least 3 to 1 or I don' trade. A good system should signal you that you shouldn't take a trade. When to and when not to is equally as important as the exit point.
  • #134
  • Jun 27, 2013 4:29pm Jun 27, 2013 4:29pm
Quoting shahroor
{quote} you are right , the whole idea is to maximise profits but once I put things into context it will all start to make more sense. at the end of the day as you said if we get out with good profits we would have reached our goal. Greed is a major influential factor in delayed exit and considering this observation we have a guide that its definitely time to get out of the market but believe me you will be surprised how many times that turns out to be the closest you would exit near a top or bottom
When you see someone, who holds 100pips up, holds 60pips back down, then holds and gets the perfect top 100pips back up, there lying so don't try to copy / be as good as them.

I get the first top ( Well pause ), or aim to, sometimes I'm short ofcourse, can always get back in near the MA for the next up move, would be nice to hold all day and bag 200pips for risking 30 though
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #135
  • Jun 27, 2013 4:30pm Jun 27, 2013 4:30pm
I agree that analysing is easy after the event however we need to keep in mind that trading systems are based on observations and repetitive patterns.
A system wont be considered viable unless it survives various market conditions over a considerable length of time. This is an important step before moving to forward testing . ​so in summary once these ideas comes together , we will perform extensive backtesting to test its reliability.

By the way when I write about a concept here , be assured that I have already moved a step ahead but would still prefer to hear your views and critique in order to fill any gaps and modify things as we move along.
  • #136
  • Jun 27, 2013 4:34pm Jun 27, 2013 4:34pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} When you see someone, who holds 100pips up, holds 60pips back down, then holds and gets the perfect top 100pips back up, there lying so don't try to copy / be as good as them. I get the first top ( Well pause ), or aim to, sometimes I'm short ofcourse, can always get back in near the MA for the next up move, would be nice to hold all day and bag 200pips for risking 30 though
am not sure if I got your point here. we are not looking to enter short on top or long on bottom , this is an exit strategy not entry . did I misunderstood you here?
  • #137
  • Jun 27, 2013 4:38pm Jun 27, 2013 4:38pm
Quoting shahroor
I agree that analysing is easy after the event however we need to keep in mind that trading systems are based on observations and repetitive patterns. A system wont be considered viable unless it survives various market conditions over a considerable length of time. This is an important step before moving to forward testing . ​so in summary once these ideas comes together , we will perform extensive backtesting to test its reliability. By the way when I write about a concept here , be assured that I have already moved a step ahead but would...
I'm just hoping you have a eureka moment and solve the issue of hold for more or take the profit

If that was M5 chart I was trading, I'd of bailed right by the D in " Deep Retracement" then Long by the R in it.

Maybe the next retracement, then looking to short as it's failing to make new highs, but likely bailing near the MA so be entirely random chance that I was in long enough to get the break down.

It's VERY hard to be objective while back testing though.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #138
  • Jun 27, 2013 4:40pm Jun 27, 2013 4:40pm
Quoting shahroor
{quote} am not sure if I got your point here. we are not looking to enter short on top or long on bottom , this is an exit strategy not entry . did I misunderstood you here?

Don't try for perfection, the only 1's which get that are very likely lying to you.

( Except GDR, he's just GOOD )
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #139
  • Jun 27, 2013 4:48pm Jun 27, 2013 4:48pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Don't try for perfection, the only 1's which get that are very likely lying to you. ( Except GDR, he's just GOOD )
Don't worry my friend , its not about perfection its all about having a consistently profitable system that's all
  • #140
  • Jun 27, 2013 5:00pm Jun 27, 2013 5:00pm
By the way guys some of you might think I am talking rubbish but just in keep in mind that I am not new to system development , its hard work and takes a lot of time , the things that you see here is part of the process but what you are not seeing is the hours that I put in to test these ideas .
Here is a result of a system I developed back in 2010 and still works to date but this is not for forex
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