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Sonic R. System

  • #52,001
  • Jun 27, 2013 8:25am Jun 27, 2013 8:25am
Quoting St3ve
{quote} afaik, TAH has no open trades on AC, only on AU and UC .. searching through TAHs latests posts doesn't take long and would have revealed the answer to your question. {quote} Read the comments in the appropriate indicator file by using the MT4 editor (SonicR PVA Candles indicator: context menu --> change) ----- If those people new to the thread would only spend a fraction of the time TAH is investing in his posts, there wouldn't be questions about MM definition, candle colours and TP levels on every second page of the thread. ----- Thank...
Steve, sorry to bother you, but I'm in FF since 2010, and I didn't ask anything relevant to PVSRA. I just asked about a TP level. I couldn't find either that's why I asked.

Philip
  • #52,002
  • Edited 8:38am Jun 27, 2013 8:27am | Edited 8:38am
Quoting figgsey
{quote} Prof, is there a danger that as with some "systems" markets i.e MM may wise up to PVSRA and that it may start to lose it's effectiveness or edga? Just a thought as all systems need to adapt... ta
Market Manipulators and Transparency

The keyword is transparency.

Those with the money and will to use it to manipulate market prices for the purpose of making their own profits prefer to do what they do in a non-transparent manner. Simply put, they don't want others to know what they are doing, nor why they are doing it. PVSRA cuts thru that non-transparent "shield" to reveal what the MMs are, bulls or bears.

This is a "work in progress" and no doubt we will eventually become very familiar with the "in's and out's" of the price manipulations of the MMs. If, over time, the MMs discover we have discovered their "cloaked strategies" and engage in new strategies, we will simply have to learn them and add them to the list of those they engage in.

It is highly unlikely there will ever be any change of substance, however. This is due to the fact that PVSRA is predicated on two simple, unchanging characteristics of the MMs. Their greed and arrogance, and therefore their preferences when it comes to building positions. Their preferences they will not deny themselves, out of greed and arrogance. It is the way the markets have always been.
  • #52,003
  • Jun 27, 2013 8:49am Jun 27, 2013 8:49am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} AJ Short Trade: Added short #9, Scout. M1 PVSRA shows MMs pushed up price towards whole SR and increased trading, indicating they are bears. {image}
AJ Short Trade:

Added short #10, Scout. M1 PVSRA shows MMs pushed price up thru whole SR and increased trading, indicating they are bears. Adjusted TP.
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  • #52,004
  • Jun 27, 2013 8:50am Jun 27, 2013 8:50am
Quoting Tymedu
Working on money management Hi guys. I want to explain you my changes in my money management because I think it's important for new guys. PVSRA is fantastic, awesome, and now we all are happy because prices moved where we predicted to. BUT we can't forget that many of us suffered a lot with the drawdown due our poor bank management. So I will try to explain here the changes I made. Before, I traded with 0.5 minilots (0.05$ per pip) with a bankroll of 300-320$. If we divide, that is a 6500pips bankroll. Way to short for PVSRA. Last month I had a...

Hi Tymedu, thank you for sharing your money management ideas. As most can see this is the most important aspect in trading using PVSRA and position building method.

I have one question though: How many maximum parts do you intend to keep open at any time? I see each trade size is now 0.02 lots but if you end up having more parts (2 or three times more than before), your total risk will still be same/more.

In other words, i believe we have to also come up with some rule about # of parts we can have open anytime. One way i was thinking is that I can decide how much safety buffer i want to have before the account blows up. for e.g. if I say i need at least 500pips move against me (in all parts together) before i get margin call then i can back calculate total lots i can have open given a bankrole size.

Please let us know your thoughts on this.

thanks again
Think : Trade : Live Life
  • #52,005
  • Jun 27, 2013 8:59am Jun 27, 2013 8:59am
Hi all and thank you for share your analysis and your system.

There are french sonicers here to explain me some details in pm pls?

Thank a lot and good trade
French Sonicer
  • #52,006
  • Jun 27, 2013 9:00am Jun 27, 2013 9:00am
Quoting chimz
{quote} Prof, Please you have my full permission like i said i am not ready to start posting but for the result i can show it. Once again THANK YOU and THANK YOU........ Regards, Chimz {image} {image}
Chimz,

I only meant that those words of yours about your previous experience and then your summary results from PVSRA,.....those you should post here for Sonicers to be encouraged by. Nothing elaborate, just what you said to me in your PM.

-tah
  • #52,007
  • Jun 27, 2013 9:05am Jun 27, 2013 9:05am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} GU Short Trade: Added short trade #20, Scout. M1 PVSRA shows MMs hiked price above whole number on and followed by increased activity, indicating they are bears seeking higher prices to add shorts. Adjusted TP. {image} {image}
GU Short Trade:

Closed all 20 short trade components for 5,000 pips gain.
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  • #52,008
  • Jun 27, 2013 9:12am Jun 27, 2013 9:12am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} GU Short Trade: Closed all 20 short trade components for 5,000 pips gain. {image}
TAH: Why? M1 PVSRA analysis?
Newbie trader
  • #52,009
  • Jun 27, 2013 9:19am Jun 27, 2013 9:19am
Quoting fex
{quote} TAH: Why? M1 PVSRA analysis?
Why? That was my plan. 5,000 pips and a conservative exit within both the Day and Week ranges. Done. No need to be greedy with PVSRA. I don't know, nor does anyone else know, where the bottom will be and if the price might suddenly spike up because it was just reached. So, why should I wait for it?
  • #52,010
  • Jun 27, 2013 9:29am Jun 27, 2013 9:29am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} GU Short Trade: Closed all 20 short trade components for 5,000 pips gain. {image}


Congrats Prof. You teach by doing (as oppose to many univ Professors)
Think : Trade : Live Life
  • #52,011
  • Jun 27, 2013 9:30am Jun 27, 2013 9:30am
Quoting stt
{quote} Hi Tymedu, thank you for sharing your money management ideas. As most can see this is the most important aspect in trading using PVSRA and position building method. I have one question though: How many maximum parts do you intend to keep open at any time? I see each trade size is now 0.02 lots but if you end up having more parts (2 or three times more than before), your total risk will still be same/more. In other words, i believe we have to also come up with some rule about # of parts we can have open anytime. One way i was thinking is...
Hi stt.

Nice point. Of course, I will follow the same methodology as before. Normally, I leave a minimum space of 25 pips between one entry and another. Of course this depends of the current price phase, the pair, etc. Some pairs have more range (like EURJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD...) and other like USDCAD has a tight daily range.

We also have to see what is the price doing. If the MM's are building bears (for example) but the price is going up and up in a constant move, I'm careful when I add a position and I try to leave a conservative space between one order and another. However, if we see that MM's are finishing their build and the price is in a tight range, we can put the orders a little bit closer.

I like PVSRA, but I also like the flexibility that it gives to me. For now, the max number of orders I had in a pair at the same time was 13. That 13 orders were placed in a 400pips range. I don't have in mind to change that, but I will have more freedom to add 15 instead of 13 or 17 instead of 13. But I highly doubt I will place more than 20 (20x0,02 = 8x0,05). At the same time I will have more freedom as well to enter in other pairs because with the old management, I were committed too easy.

So, in a nutshell. It depends of:

  1. Pair daily range (If the pair has a big range like EURJPY I try to put minimum 25 pips between orders)
  2. Current phase (early build position, final build position, etc etc)
  3. Other trades opened (if I have too many trades opened, I will be more careful)

Of course, this is just my method. It's not a fixed method but you could use a fixed method with fixed rules perfectly, like never enter a trade if the prices is closer than 25 pips from your last entry. Also you can use a fixed predefined amount of entries (let's say 10) and to shoot your 10 "bullets" at the better possible places.

The important thing in forex (using whatever system you use) is to adapt to the circumstances. I will put as an example my current EU trade.

Look at the image. 3 short orders in a 30pips range. "WTF Tymedu? You said 25 pips retarded!". That could be a normal reaction if you read my post and the to look to the image. But as I said, we must adapt to the situation. At the current point, EU has low demand and price is in a tight range between 1.305 and 1.30. I entered my first order at 1.30 just to get the feet wet. I know it's almost impossible that after I put that order price will drop until 1.28, but I want to be in.

Price goes up between 1.30 and 1.305 and I place 2 orders more. Price is in a tight range and I want to have a minimum number of orders, just in case the MMs decide to run for profits again. Now I have 3 orders. If the price goes down I will be ok and if the prices goes up and breaks 1.3050 I have room to add more orders and average my position. If you see the image, price almost touched the 1.3050 but I didn't add the 4th order. Why? Because now I have 3 and I will leave some space between orders.

Also because I know that if the MMs really want to hike or pump the price, normally they cross the half number and then the volume increases. So, I don't see the point to add there.

I hope it helps you! If u disagree with something or you have feedback, do not hesitate to post. We are here to learn!
Best, Tymedu.

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To fail is just an opportunity to learn
  • #52,012
  • Jun 27, 2013 9:34am Jun 27, 2013 9:34am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} Why? That was my plan. 5,000 pips and a conservative exit within both the Day and Week ranges. Done. No need to be greedy with PVSRA. I don't know, nor does anyone else know, where the bottom will be and if the price might suddenly spike up because it was just reached. So, why should I wait for it?
Excellent trade TAH, long and with patient. And I agree with you, it's almost impossible to catch a trade from the start to the end. Put a target where you will fell happy and comfortable and enjoy your profits. Well done!

To fail is just an opportunity to learn
  • #52,013
  • Jun 27, 2013 9:41am Jun 27, 2013 9:41am
Quoting Tymedu
{quote} Hi stt. Nice point. Of course, I will follow the same methodology as before. Normally, I leave a minimum space of 25 pips between one entry and another. Of course this depends of the current price phase, the pair, etc. Some pairs have more range (like EURJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD...) and other like USDCAD has a tight daily range. We also have to see what is the price doing. If the MM's are building bears (for example) but the price is going up and up in a constant move, I'm careful when I add a position and I try to leave a conservative space...
Tymedu,

Thank you for sacrificing your time to compose and share as your own "PVSRA in-work" project continues. And it is such an important part of PVSRA, too.

Sonicers, PVSRA continues to be an "in-work" project. The foundation is being laid as more of you participate and share. I thank all Sonicers for their part in helping us all learn more about this tiger we have by the tail. And I encourage all who are participating, that get to the point of having good and credible results, to share the results as encouragement to others. This is the pattern of "sharing is caring" so well established by Master Sonicdeejay since the start of this thread.
  • #52,014
  • Jun 27, 2013 10:07am Jun 27, 2013 10:07am
Quoting Tymedu
Working on money management Hi guys. I want to explain you my changes in my money management because I think it's important for new guys. PVSRA is fantastic, awesome, and now we all are happy because prices moved where we predicted to. BUT we can't forget that many of us suffered a lot with the drawdown due our poor bank management. So I will try to explain here the changes I made. Before, I traded with 0.5 minilots (0.05$ per pip) with a bankroll of 300-320$. If we divide, that is a 6500pips bankroll. Way to short for PVSRA. Last month I had a...
Good choice, but its still a 15% drawdown with the new management.
When do you intened to close your losing positions if it comes to that?
Thoughts are things
  • #52,015
  • Jun 27, 2013 10:12am Jun 27, 2013 10:12am
PVSRA, AJ: Bulls or Bears?

M15, in the box, shows a selloff (red bar) and a pump up (purple bar) to stop out, trigger in....liquidity creation to fill even more short orders = Bears.
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  • #52,016
  • Jun 27, 2013 10:12am Jun 27, 2013 10:12am
Quoting Tymedu
{quote} Hi stt. Nice point. Of course, I will follow the same methodology as before. Normally, I leave a minimum space of 25 pips between one entry and another. Of course this depends of the current price phase, the pair, etc. Some pairs have more range (like EURJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD...) and other like USDCAD has a tight daily range. We also have to see what is the price doing. If the MM's are building bears (for example) but the price is going up and up in a constant move, I'm careful when I add a position and I try to leave a conservative space...
Thank you Tymedu for your such a detailed reply. You continue to amaze me with your sharing attitude. I agree with your approach on # of parts and see that it has to be subjective to some degree when you add new parts to the trade. Even when following the same system, everyone will trade differently but your guidance will help a lot in position sizing/total exposure.

I am very fortunate to be able to learn from you guys here. I have to say this is the best thread i have seen anywhere - no where there is such a selfless group of people sharing so openly.

Happy trading!!
Think : Trade : Live Life
  • #52,017
  • Jun 27, 2013 10:29am Jun 27, 2013 10:29am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} Tymedu, Thank you for sacrificing your time to compose and share as your own "PVSRA in-work" project continues. And it is such an important part of PVSRA, too. Sonicers, PVSRA continues to be an "in-work" project. The foundation is being laid as more of you participate and share. I thank all Sonicers for their part in helping us all learn more about this tiger we have by the tail. And I encourage all who are participating, that get to the point of having good and credible results, to share the results as encouragement to others. This...
Thanks TAH for your words. I'm just trying to share my learning path, just that. 2 weeks ago I was the "-4000 pips guy trying to give tips" and now I'm the +4k pips guy xD. I'm the same. I like to share because I learnt a lot here, I can say this thread changes my life How can I don't dedicate a few minutes of my time to share?

Quoting Quezoy
{quote} Good choice, but its still a 15% drawdown with the new management. When do you intened to close your losing positions if it comes to that?
Hi Quezoy.

Yes, it's still a 15% drawdown. And yes, that is not the ideal situation. But right now with the bankroll I have, I prefer to "assume" that risk and trade a little bit more aggressive. Maybe in the future, if I achieve a bigger capital on this account, I will change it again to be more conservative.

Regarding the closing of the positions, it will depend of every situation. For me, it's impossible to reply you because I do not have a scenario to study right now.
To fail is just an opportunity to learn
  • #52,018
  • Jun 27, 2013 10:40am Jun 27, 2013 10:40am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} AJ Short Trade: Added short #10, Scout. M1 PVSRA shows MMs pushed price up thru whole SR and increased trading, indicating they are bears. Adjusted TP. {image}

Oh those pesky yen pairs. I am not in the AJ trade being already in EJ and GJ but have had a good look at it and this is what I see.

AJ bounced clean off the 61.8 Fib as to be expected, but is that the end of the down run?
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Up trend in M15 is less than convincing, not much slope to it, and clear warnings that longs being closed above whgole/half/quarter numbers, BUT the trend is intact although that last hit fell on the long term trend resistance line and was a great spike. Highs and Lows still rising though.
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M5 shows some real signs of trend change, with a firm hole punched through the short term trend line and warnings coming thick and fast. Dragon still up and new highs still so dangerous for the cautious amongst us. What it really wants is some evidence of lower highs and lower lows in the M5 and M15 timeframe to be certain however.....

Looking at M1 there was a lovely early (and probably scalp trade) short to be taken with everything lined up, dragon, lower highs and lows, broken trend, retracement to test long term resistance - perfect!
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But its still not for me yet, partly as I have a load of yen positions ongoing and partly because I would like to see a trend break in the higher timeframes first. But for what its worth that's what I think.
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Katte, kabuto no o wo shime yo. Size doesn't matter, leverage is the killer
  • #52,019
  • Jun 27, 2013 11:25am Jun 27, 2013 11:25am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} Why? That was my plan. 5,000 pips and a conservative exit within both the Day and Week ranges. Done. No need to be greedy with PVSRA. I don't know, nor does anyone else know, where the bottom will be and if the price might suddenly spike up because it was just reached. So, why should I wait for it?
Thanks you very much

GU short PVSRA trade
All 5 parts closed: 5 x 190 = +950 pips, easily and without nerves
It seems incredible, but true, PVSRA works. I am extremely grateful to Prof. TAH.
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Newbie trader
  • #52,020
  • Jun 27, 2013 11:45am Jun 27, 2013 11:45am
Quoting mouldy
{quote} Hi TAH, might there be a reason why the MMs are continuing to build shorts? For the past two weeks when we exprienced our drawdowns as they drove the price to 1.569 (GU) they were building their short positions.. that much was clear. After building so much shorts, shouldnt this move down cause them to take their profits instead of building more shorts as you said? Or is this because they have a much much longer term goal to meet? Thats probably the only reason I can think of. {image}
Why are you asking this question? Have you not read all that has been written already on PVSRA? The statement that answers the question has been repeated many times over already because it is fundamental. Ok, for you and for every other lazy student......

....we can know if the MMs are bulls or bears, but we can never know when they will start their run for profits!
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