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  • #810,901
  • Jun 27, 2013 2:00am Jun 27, 2013 2:00am
Quoting tomspin
{quote} Can you give an example please, I personally think this strategy benefits only broker if you add all the costs, why not be a trend trader or counter trend for that matter?
Well, how can you define a trend, where is the top, the bottom.

It's another tool to your belt, being able to what I like to call "Counter-Trade" by longing and shorting the same currency pair as a short-term hedging strategy.

Good for times of spikes like NFP where market tends to spike both ways before making the actual move.


Attach TP's, trailing stop losses and you can't lose!!

(Technically you can, but it makes a good saying)
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #810,902
  • Jun 27, 2013 2:00am Jun 27, 2013 2:00am
Quoting hadox
{quote} so you're buying 3 bananas and selling 3 bananas.. how many bananas do you have? i would say 0 - you're saying 6
Then it all dépends if it hedged 100% or not.
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #810,903
  • Jun 27, 2013 2:01am Jun 27, 2013 2:01am
Quoting hadox
{quote} it still doesn't make any sense to me.. what's the psychological advantage?

i feel like i did not loose anything , for me i don't like to get s/l on my first trade of the day, i use hedge instead of s/l , MY ea will kill it with Close by option overnight (i don't loose spread for using hedge). it's really handy when i trade against long term trade.
Mohan
  • #810,904
  • Jun 27, 2013 2:04am Jun 27, 2013 2:04am
Quoting hadox
{quote} so you're buying 3 bananas and selling 3 bananas.. how many bananas do you have? i would say 0 - you're saying 6
Not that simple to be honest. Various areas with various forces of orderflow/volume. Closing a hedge after confirmation of breakout from whatever important confluence area will let you be able to use perfect stop placement. In other words, flat at arrival MOFU/whatever area you're using, odds in your favor to go green with perfect stop placement afterwards.
  • #810,905
  • Jun 27, 2013 2:04am Jun 27, 2013 2:04am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Then it all dépends if it hedged 100% or not.
sure, but then i would call it partials ...

anyway.. still don't see the idea, prolly never will..
Patience is a virtue...
  • #810,906
  • Jun 27, 2013 2:06am Jun 27, 2013 2:06am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} To be honest, nothing is missed. This strategy always made me end up losing money
Quoting hadox
{quote} so you're buying 3 bananas and selling 3 bananas.. how many bananas do you have? i would say 0 - you're saying 6

Of course people will disagree with someone elses trading strategy, or else they'd already be doing it.

I respect what you are saying kururo001, because you have tested the strategy. I do agree over the long term periods if you do not use stop losses at all, and end up with a 10c swing that you cannot carry because of overleverage.

Short term, where market will move 30 pips either way all day, it does offer value if one makes a wrong call, i.e. because the trade you close out does come back eventually, and if you leave it in you missed out counter trading the other direction to profit in the first place.

It is another tool in the belt, better to be able to then not able to.

in defence in NZD and AUD /USD i only trade 1 way. and no it isn't for the carry trading theory. Because I actually short the NZD from 85>

others i tend to trade both ways.
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #810,907
  • Jun 27, 2013 2:07am Jun 27, 2013 2:07am
Quoting John Gray
{quote} Well, how can you define a trend, where is the top, the bottom. It's another tool to your belt, being able to what I like to call "Counter-Trade" by longing and shorting the same currency pair as a short-term hedging strategy. Good for times of spikes like NFP where market tends to spike both ways before making the actual move. Attach TP's, trailing stop losses and you can't lose!! (Technically you can, but it makes a good saying)
I have a definition and "think" I got tools to spot one, been lucky twice already just need more market time to prove my theory,
I was talking about mathematical example of two opposite trades on one pair and how you benefit.
News release hedging would be probably the worst example as many times you have spikes in both direction and you'd end up with double loss.
But hey if it works for you than fine, I was just curious.
swing it!
  • #810,908
  • Jun 27, 2013 2:07am Jun 27, 2013 2:07am
Quoting hadox
{quote} sure, but then i would call it partials ... anyway.. still don't see the idea, prolly never will..

you will when you make an incorrect trade, it moves away 30 pip, and half an hour later you're at breakeven, potentially can profit 60 pips and be in the same place (less spreads)
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #810,909
  • Jun 27, 2013 2:11am Jun 27, 2013 2:11am
Quoting tomspin
{quote} I have a definition and "think" I got tools to spot one, been lucky twice already just need more market time to prove my theory, I was talking about mathematical example of two opposite trades on one pair and how you benefit. News release hedging would be probably the worst example as many times you have spikes in both direction and you'd end up with double loss. But hey if it works for you than fine, I was just curious.
Totally understand tomspin, thank you for asking!

Finance Lecturer always tries to argue it's a bad idea, and i see both sides of the story, looked into it before i started doing it of course.

perfect hedge means you make nothing, unless one side is closed and market comes back to other side, can be very risky. obviously.

In effect you're actually taking the same risk as a normal trade, unless the size of the "hedge" gets very large.

Potentially creating a bubble by expanding assets and liabilities but equity remaining constant.

Sure, it has downside risk and potential NO gains. But if we can play our cards right, we can play any card we want!!

edit: correct about double losses, if SL are pre-set and not trailings. no SL is even more risky so all about playing the best investment decision really.
must always think about R:R, very small trade was on G/U on news so can make SL very wide where news spike isn't really long term picture
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #810,910
  • Jun 27, 2013 2:14am Jun 27, 2013 2:14am
Quoting John Gray
{quote} you will when you make an incorrect trade, it moves away 30 pip, and half an hour later you're at breakeven, potentially can profit 60 pips and be in the same place (less spreads)
or you're at -150 pips..

anyway gl with your project..
Patience is a virtue...
  • #810,911
  • Jun 27, 2013 2:17am Jun 27, 2013 2:17am
Quoting prashant7
{quote} Normally PA doesn't tend to give good shorting opportunities on bearish trends - as its most vulnerable and catches the downside pretty quickly even before reaching the actual resistance levels ? last was around 3255 - PA was eager to have some strong supply around 3266 or 3261 but no, it left those levels behind and continued downside . it would have been much clearer bearish trend if it had kissed 3305 before dropping from 3255... this would well remind me to get in around 3055 levels itself instead of waiting for 3060 or 3065 ?
I have prepared a chart with more explanations.I want to show that bulls can be "on" successful of these levels. Suffice it to maintain support.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 85 KB
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #810,912
  • Jun 27, 2013 2:18am Jun 27, 2013 2:18am
Quoting hadox
{quote} or you're at -150 pips.. anyway gl with your project..

Actually i'd be hedged and my balance would increase by 150pips*leverage and equity be the same, i guess you're talking about my liabilities, unrealised in assets.. But sure, you'd be at -150 pips in equity, hopefully you have SL and only lose some, pending opposite at SL another strategy.

Anyway I'm just sharing one of my ideas.. Don't want to get raged at for it!! Ive been trading for coming up 4 years now and still learning everyday. Will continue to with the variety of traders here.
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #810,913
  • Jun 27, 2013 2:21am Jun 27, 2013 2:21am
The market is not moving even if EUR gets good data. It's getting scarier and scarier. What is there to do? Will it drop?
  • #810,914
  • Jun 27, 2013 2:22am Jun 27, 2013 2:22am
Quoting godim
{quote} I have prepared a chart with more explanations.I want to show that bulls can be "on" successful of these levels. Suffice it to maintain support. {image}
Could you simplify your charts by at least colorizing the relevant lines? Eg. which of the numerous lines does "last line of defense" refer to?

KISS.

The weather sucks today. Wife is reading...
  • #810,915
  • Jun 27, 2013 2:27am Jun 27, 2013 2:27am
Quoting tomspin
{quote} I have a definition and "think" I got tools to spot one, been lucky twice already just need more market time to prove my theory, I was talking about mathematical example of two opposite trades on one pair and how you benefit. News release hedging would be probably the worst example as many times you have spikes in both direction and you'd end up with double loss. But hey if it works for you than fine, I was just curious.
Also I am thinking about some thing like this if you can make some tools I am very happy to can check them.
  • #810,916
  • Jun 27, 2013 2:32am Jun 27, 2013 2:32am
Quoting John Gray
{quote} Actually i'd be hedged and my balance would increase by 150pips*leverage and equity be the same, i guess you're talking about my liabilities, unrealised in assets.. But sure, you'd be at -150 pips in equity, hopefully you have SL and only lose some, pending opposite at SL another strategy. Anyway I'm just sharing one of my ideas.. Don't want to get raged at for it!! Ive been trading for coming up 4 years now and still learning everyday. Will continue to with the variety of traders here.


if your equity is the same , what is the trick in having 2 position in opposite directions.. you would loose the spread everytime..

fell free to share your ideas.. but you need to remember there's a big difference in sharing ideas and be trading for a living..

when your bills needs to be payed every month it changes everything..
Patience is a virtue...
  • #810,917
  • Jun 27, 2013 2:32am Jun 27, 2013 2:32am
There 's some need for choppy action because of respective positions of majors and yen pairs (eurjpy, usdjpy, gbpjpy).

Thats why gbpusd found some temporary bounce as i see it. Geppy needs to break down intraday open price before some renewed selling will happen to cable. But it can be basicly done 2 ways:

- Need to buy jpy(usd,eur,gbp,aud) up and at proper point start selling gbp while buying others or just supporting them from dropping. Or temporary stop triggering on geppy while other jpy's are staying put.

- Volume selling on both eurusd and cable while buying hard eurgbp.

Lots of choppiness ahead.
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #810,918
  • Jun 27, 2013 2:36am Jun 27, 2013 2:36am
Quoting alinturbut
The market is not moving even if EUR gets good data. It's getting scarier and scarier. What is there to do? Will it drop?
It means that EUR data are not relevant now for the market. The focus is on unemployment data for today. So, maybe we will have a flat market till US session. Market doesn't wants to move till that data. Surprisingly a very bad US GDP data, yesterday, meaning not taping QE so fast, couldn't move up the market.
  • #810,919
  • Jun 27, 2013 2:42am Jun 27, 2013 2:42am
4hr toppy

seems it may be starting to roll over and resume its downward move.
  • #810,920
  • Jun 27, 2013 2:48am Jun 27, 2013 2:48am
Quoting Ambar
{quote}Surprisingly a very bad US GDP data, yesterday, meaning not taping QE so fast, couldn't move up the market.
It's a bit of a misunderstanding that a lot of people believe that the Fed is weighing the GDP in it's QE tapering decision. The Fed has 2 goals, they are inflation at 2% and unemployment at 6.5%, GDP is not a factor. I agree, I think we range until US unemployment data is released.
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