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  • #51,841
  • Edited 2:46pm Jun 24, 2013 2:18pm | Edited 2:46pm
Quoting apock
{quote} I fully understand your point of view, however MT4 has no information about volume on lower TFs and if the idea is follow the system, I see that the volume starts from below whole number. Anyway, thanks for your feedback. We're here to learn: D Regards.
As I said, as for bear MMs striking up thru key levels on bars that actually start below the levels, so what? It is not where the bar starts from, it is where the bar strikes to and showing a notable increase in activity for the bar. That is one of the fundamental PVSRA "conditions" we look for.
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  • #51,842
  • Jun 24, 2013 2:28pm Jun 24, 2013 2:28pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} As I said, as for bear MMs striking up thru key levels on bars that actually start below the levels, so what? It is not where the bar starts from, it is where the bar strikes to and showing a notable increase in activity for the bar. That is one of the fundamental PVSRA "conditions" we look for.
Prof TAH, since i am also learning this, i have a question similar to this:

What else do you look at to differentiate between

#1 a long green bar with higher activity because large players are buying impatiently vs
#2 a long green bar with higher activity because large players are pushing prices up to short

few things i have gathered from reading all of posts here:

1. the price level around which the activity happen. if the bar goes above key SR, then it is likely the case of #2.
2. activity after the first bar. if the activity stays high and price slowly goes down, then again it is like the case of #2


I am not sure if this is all or i am missing something very important.

Thanks again for all the free sharing here.
Think : Trade : Live Life
  • #51,843
  • Edited 2:56pm Jun 24, 2013 2:41pm | Edited 2:56pm
Quoting stt
{quote} Prof TAH, since i am also learning this, i have a question similar to this: What else do you look at to differentiate between #1 a long green bar with higher activity because large players are buying impatiently vs #2 a long green bar with higher activity because large players are pushing prices up to short few things i have gathered from reading all of posts here: 1. the price level around which the activity happen. if the bar goes above key SR, then it is likely the case of #2. 2. activity after the first bar. if the activity stays high...
Sounds to me like you grasp this. As we get experience we learn there are a variety of things that can happen once the MMs push the price across key SR. It is an area where objective qualification becomes difficult due to the variety of things that can happen. Making a determination becomes more subjective based not only on what is happening, but based on PA and volume overall. Price might drop, but it might be a bear selloff. Price might stay, as bears milk the cow. Or, price might get stepped up even more aggressively, as bears seek even higher levels for shorting. The key is that the price has been driven above a key SR and that good activity follows as price moves up, down, sideways. If the MMs were bulls, they'd have kept the damn price lower to do all that activity. See? Subjective qualification.

As for EU specifically, just look at H4. Do you see that the Dragon is getting close to crossing down thru the Trend Line? When such a cross happens on H1, it is significant, and frequently in conjunction there is a price pullback to/into/thru the Dragon which is not a reversal but a confirmation of the ongoing trend, because it happens when the MMs manipulate prices backwards to re-build their positions larger. And now, we have the potential for a cross on H4! If the MMs plan on this going much, much lower then it is no wonder they have spent the day moving prices up/down, hiking and selling off, hiking and sellling off.....building their short positions.
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  • #51,844
  • Edited 3:02pm Jun 24, 2013 2:43pm | Edited 3:02pm
Quoting banteka
{quote} BEARS are very aggressive. They reached half number (0.9750). Adding more shorts. {image}
High volume during range period above half number. BEARS have been closing longs and building shorts. PA is into the DRAGON. Is near the Run for Profits?. Or will the BEARS MMs try again higher places before the fall?
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My mother language is Spanish, so, please, be patient with me.
  • #51,845
  • Jun 24, 2013 2:57pm Jun 24, 2013 2:57pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} Sounds to me like you grasp this. As we get experience we learn there are a variety of things that can happen once the MMs push the price across key SR. It is an area where objective qualification becomes difficult due to the variety of things that can happen. Making a determination becomes more subjective based not only on what is happening, but based on PA and volume overall. Price might drop, but it might be a bear selloff. Price might stay, as bears milk the cow. Or, price might get stepped up even more aggressively, as bears seek even...
Thanks Prof. Yes it is making sense (albeit slowly). It is like a game of bluff - they push the price up trying to project this is bullish move. We try to see through it it and conclude they are pushing it up because they are bears. The recursive thinking like this can keep going...

The good thing is once i get more hand of it, I can test a similar method on FX Futures (where there is accurate tick by tick volume) and see if this holds. That can provide a great tool as you can use information from Futures mkt to trade Spot (there are enough HFT firms that keep Futures and spot largely in sync). Also looking at tick volume can perhaps provide better view from sub minute TF.

Thanks and have a great day!!

PS: just saw your addition to your post about EU specifically. Totally agree on that analysis. In EU this is very very likely just a pump up to short more. Also fundamental stuff is on the side of this trade (i know that is largely irrelevant as fundamental interpretation is very very subjective).
Think : Trade : Live Life
  • #51,846
  • Jun 24, 2013 5:04pm Jun 24, 2013 5:04pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} And you have not done a competent PVSRA because you apparently have ignored the M1 analysis, perhaps the most important one of all! The higher and/or the more concentrated areas of notable activity increases are at the relative highs, not at the relative lows. And this is real-time analysis! Not based on something that happened hours or even days ago. No PVSRA is complete if it doesn't take into consideration multiiple TFs. However, no matter how many higher TFs you consider, the PVSRA is still not complete if you have not included the M1...

That was valuable, I had not drilled down to M1. I will start this right away.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #51,847
  • Jun 24, 2013 5:19pm Jun 24, 2013 5:19pm
EUR/USD

Wedge formation ???? We'll see what happens.
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  • #51,848
  • Edited 8:57pm Jun 24, 2013 7:53pm | Edited 8:57pm
Quoting rxJano
EUR/USD Wedge formation ???? We'll see what happens. {image}
PVSRA Bear Wedge Pattern

This is a PVSRA newly discovered pattern. It is an ordinary rising wedge, but with a bear MMs headfake out the top. This is the most reliable and most significant of all rising wedge patterns. A move to the down side is a real ball buster, and virtual guarantee! The minimum breakout distance will be approximately 200% of the distance from the lowest point on the bottom of the wedge to the highest point of the headfake breakout, and applied to the point along the lower edge of the rising wedge final formation where the final breakout occurs.

(Just having fun here, but don't laugh. Let's see how it comes out once the wedge is in final form and the final breakout has occurred.)
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  • #51,849
  • Jun 24, 2013 9:59pm Jun 24, 2013 9:59pm
Quoting hansma
Au started to build short position. Regards, H.
i'm long mate ..

for those who have shorts be prepare with 50 ep or more , keep for a guess analysis short building position

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  • #51,850
  • Jun 25, 2013 3:12am Jun 25, 2013 3:12am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} PVSRA Bear Wedge Pattern This is a PVSRA newly discovered pattern. It is an ordinary rising wedge, but with a bear MMs headfake out the top. This is the most reliable and most significant of all rising wedge patterns. A move to the down side is a real ball buster, and virtual guarantee! The minimum breakout distance will be approximately 200% of the distance from the lowest point on the bottom of the wedge to the highest point of the headfake breakout, and applied to the point along the lower edge of the rising wedge final formation where...
It would be interesting... we don't seem to have high volume confirmed at price action highs yet.
  • #51,851
  • Jun 25, 2013 3:57am Jun 25, 2013 3:57am
EU and GU:

Perfect examples about MM's loading shorts. Look at the images and how the volume rises at the tops in load area. This doesn't mean that the price can go higher, of course it can, specially with the news we have in a few hours, but for me they are totally loading shorts for another markdown.

In both, MM's are hiking the price and once they are above 1.3125 in EU and above 1.545 in GU, the activity increases a lot.
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To fail is just an opportunity to learn
  • #51,852
  • Jun 25, 2013 4:01am Jun 25, 2013 4:01am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} PVSRA Bear Wedge Pattern This is a PVSRA newly discovered pattern. It is an ordinary rising wedge, but with a bear MMs headfake out the top. This is the most reliable and most significant of all rising wedge patterns. A move to the down side is a real ball buster, and virtual guarantee! The minimum breakout distance will be approximately 200% of the distance from the lowest point on the bottom of the wedge to the highest point of the headfake breakout, and applied to the point along the lower edge of the rising wedge final formation where...
Thanks for the hot tip!

Writing that sure-fire formula down in a conspicuous place.

TP=LP-HF*200%



  • #51,853
  • Jun 25, 2013 4:09am Jun 25, 2013 4:09am
Quoting Tymedu
EU and GU: Perfect examples about MM's loading shorts. Look at the images and how the volume rises at the tops in load area. This doesn't mean that the price can go higher, of course it can, specially with the news we have in a few hours, but for me they are totally loading shorts for another markdown. In both, MM's are hiking the price and once they are above 1.3125 in EU and above 1.545 in GU, the activity increases a lot. {image} {image}
Yes, I missed the shorter TFs - M1, M5. Well spotted
  • #51,854
  • Jun 25, 2013 4:14am Jun 25, 2013 4:14am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} PVSRA Bear Wedge Pattern This is a PVSRA newly discovered pattern. It is an ordinary rising wedge, but with a bear MMs headfake out the top. This is the most reliable and most significant of all rising wedge patterns. A move to the down side is a real ball buster, and virtual guarantee! The minimum breakout distance will be approximately 200% of the distance from the lowest point on the bottom of the wedge to the highest point of the headfake breakout, and applied to the point along the lower edge of the rising wedge final formation where...
TAH
thank you; you don't stop to surprise me
and I am in this buisniss 8 years
salute to you and to PVRSA
  • #51,855
  • Edited 5:25am Jun 25, 2013 5:04am | Edited 5:25am
Quoting Tymedu
EU and GU: Perfect examples about MM's loading shorts. Look at the images and how the volume rises at the tops in load area. This doesn't mean that the price can go higher, of course it can, specially with the news we have in a few hours, but for me they are totally loading shorts for another markdown. In both, MM's are hiking the price and once they are above 1.3125 in EU and above 1.545 in GU, the activity increases a lot. {image} {image}
The Fuses are Burning!

You hammer the point home, Tymedu.

Look at H4 charts on these two. Note that at this time the Dragon has crossed down thru the Trend Line. Between the "loading up" you point out, and the fact of these crossings, this is becoming akin to watching the fuse on dynamite burn closer.....

It is obvious what the MMs are up to. Just look at UJ. Why did they run the price down and load up at the bottom, below the whole number? Answer: USD strength moves are coming up......

Edit (14 minutes later): See! They closed their shorts and loaded up on longs (pic. 2).
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  • #51,856
  • Edited 5:49am Jun 25, 2013 5:37am | Edited 5:49am
EU, GU and General Market Comment:

EU and GU are the most heavily traded pairs. Many folks that don't see what the market is (bulls or bears) as we are able to, can be on the wrong side of these (and others). And many more might have "wrong side" pending orders placed. We know what that means. It means that the dirty rotten stinking banks are more than likely to whip prices in conjunction with upcoming releases, such whips not being confined to the actual time of release but can happen anytime, and more than once. These whips hit stops and pending orders and create liquidity for the MMs (largely the banks on huge whips) to get their additional orders filled. Or, to put it another way, so the stinking banks can "steal" from others, in the perfectly legal way they are so used to doing in many other parts of their enterprise.

To we Sonicers, it means beware of our SLs (for those that use them). If you believe in your trade, why try to outguess where the bastard banks, colluding with the market makers, might whip the price to before they proceed with the trade? Just a thought.
  • #51,857
  • Jun 25, 2013 5:53am Jun 25, 2013 5:53am
UJ Long Trade:

Entered long #1, M5 Classic. No SL, no TP at this time. Reason: Obvious, (read preceding post mentioning UJ). I have also placed a pending long order in the area of the lower whole number, just in case the greedy MMs whip the price back down there.
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  • #51,858
  • Jun 25, 2013 6:09am Jun 25, 2013 6:09am
Quoting traderathome
UJ Long Trade: Entered long #1, M5 Classic. No SL, no TP at this time. Reason: Obvious, (read preceding post mentioning UJ). I have also placed a pending long order in the area of the lower whole number, just in case the greedy MMs whip the price back down there. {image}

Nice bull candle in H4 as well.. Ser..

Sonic
  • #51,859
  • Jun 25, 2013 7:04am Jun 25, 2013 7:04am
which system is everyone using. logic behind me asking is so I can download the appropriate indicators and template. thanks
  • #51,860
  • Jun 25, 2013 7:08am Jun 25, 2013 7:08am
Hi, this is my first interpretation, so i hope you correct me if i´m wrong. Like is said a lot of times, if MMs are bears, price has the most action above the SR and bulls the opposite. For that reason i see this:

USD/JPN Bullish or Bearish? BULLISH
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UJ tf15m we can see the price is pushing down once and once again, candles are attached with red volumen bars. If we see the second picture, tf1m we can see that the price is again pushing down and later go up below the half SR. Bulls are moving the prices up and down to put their long orders and take off the short orders from retails traders to gain liquidity. Am i in the right way? (sorry for my poor english)
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