Stocktwit: LuisCarlos - twitter: @lcparodi
- #67,822
- Jun 20, 2013 5:47am Jun 20, 2013 5:47am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
wow just saw this. still think we need something to break tjat 13170 then welcome 1.26
Maybe a much better than expected US jobless claims report in just under 2 hours from now
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #67,823
- Jun 20, 2013 5:48am Jun 20, 2013 5:48am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
{quote} back to sleep 5am here
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #67,824
- Jun 20, 2013 5:57am Jun 20, 2013 5:57am
- Joined Jun 2011 | Status: the risk is the unknown | 2,182 Posts
{quote} Nooo. You might miss the 3175 break and hold. Wake up.. Have 2 espressos
- #67,825
- Edited 6:14am Jun 20, 2013 6:01am | Edited 6:14am
- | Joined Dec 2010 | Status: Wanderer | 360 Posts
{quote} Maybe a much better than expected US jobless claims report in just under 2 hours from now
GL all
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
- #67,826
- Jun 20, 2013 6:57am Jun 20, 2013 6:57am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
{quote} Just an idea ... wouldn't it be prudent for BB to cushion any falls in US markets due to his hawkish comments yesterday by knowingly releasing these ahead of already known and conveniently slightly worse than expected us jobless claims numbers, which would then push the "tapering" schedule back in the market's mind and let them recover from the shock while at the same time also getting it out there that tapering is on the way in the not too distant future. GL all
I don't think it is that well orchestrated. BB is just running out of credible ways in which to justify the continuation of large scale purchases, so yesterday he dropped a hint that the Fed may taper off and so eloquently cushioned the blow by using the accelerator pedal analogy in his explanation.
The jobless claims numbers from one month wouldn't make any difference in how he delivered yesterday's statement because Mr. Market looks at the whole picture and not the numbers from one month. Furthermore, the US equity markets are extremely overbought for one reason only... and that is the 85 billion per month in asset purchases by the Fed... Nothing else... nada.
So, if we get a good US claims number today, it doesn't light any fires... it just adds a bit of extra fuel to the fire that BB already lit yesterday.
In contrast, if the jobless claims number is awful, then that pours a small bucket of water on the already burning forest fire. In other words, traders will take USD profits and maybe buy more US equities. However, all that will accomplish is to push price backwards a little where there are undoubtedly many more sellers waiting to get in on a pullback.
The tide has turned. Just watch out for the cross-chop
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
{quote} I don't think it is that well orchestrated. BB is just running out of credible ways in which to justify the continuation of large scale purchases, so yesterday he dropped a hint that the Fed may taper off and so eloquently cushioned the blow by using the accelerator pedal analogy in his explanation. The jobless claims numbers from one month wouldn't make any difference in how he delivered yesterday's statement because Mr. Market looks at the whole picture and not the numbers from one month. Furthermore, the US equity markets are extremely...
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
- #67,828
- Jun 20, 2013 7:34am Jun 20, 2013 7:34am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
{quote} Sounds good ... just wanted to make the point that yesterdays hawkish statements might not have been timed for release if just ahead of exceptionally good unemployment numbers so as not to compound any sell-offs ... even if it is only staving off the inevitable for a while!
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #67,829
- Jun 20, 2013 7:41am Jun 20, 2013 7:41am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #67,831
- Jun 20, 2013 10:14am Jun 20, 2013 10:14am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Whn Market Warms u..U keep it Kool | 6,578 Posts
- #67,832
- Jun 20, 2013 11:22am Jun 20, 2013 11:22am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #67,833
- Jun 20, 2013 11:23am Jun 20, 2013 11:23am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
For all of you who are buying the dips, make sure you sell the rallies... if you get any 
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #67,838
- Jun 21, 2013 2:19am Jun 21, 2013 2:19am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
{quote} closed most {image}
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #67,839
- Edited 3:02am Jun 21, 2013 2:28am | Edited 3:02am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Hi Guys, I have taken a long position on EURUSD from 1.3182, i see this pair retracing the entire move from BB FOMC meeting and even heading to 1.3480 / 1.3550 in extension. Why i say this... Short term we are still in a uptrend and the trend is still intact since 1.3165 was not penetrated. Medium term i see this pair heading back south to 1.30 but i believe we will see the 200 pips wiped out very soon.... 1.33 will play its role, but i feel EUR will eventually break this level. So for now im long and will exit in portions en route to 1.3480 and...
Just my opinion. I don't expect the majority to agree with me because I trade in the opposite direction of the masses
Therefore, I am still holding short from 1.3390 and will look to add on an pullback/rally.
Bearish Three Outside Down
• Direction: Bearish
• Type: Reversal
• Reliability: Strong
• After an established uptrend a clear bearish Engulfing pattern occurs (one blue candle and a second bear move that drives price below the prior day low and closes near the bottom of the range)
• The third day is a red day with an even lower close than the second day
In a market characterized by uptrend, day-twos red candle close completely below day-one, engulfing it completely. The first two days are a classic pattern that suggests a sell-off has taken over the market and is breaking the established trend.
This bearish reversal is confirmed by a still lower day on day-three.
• Connections to Bearish Engulfing Pattern
The Bearish Three Outside Down pattern is just a continuation for Bearish Engulfing with the third day as confirmation for trend reversal. A Bearish Engulfing pattern by itself is a moderately reliable reversal signal, but when it is followed by a red day (forming the Bearish Three Outside Down), the pattern becomes much more reliable.
...And here's Luis Carlos' EW count chart for this pair...
...and here is JK's outlook
Inserted Video
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #67,840
- Jun 21, 2013 6:38am Jun 21, 2013 6:38am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
EURO Bloodletting Suspends Dollar Dominance
Posted by Dean Popplewell at 6:27 am EDT, 06/21/2013 on oanda.com
Do investors have time to let some of this week’s open wounds to heal? Time is commodity we are trading. The market assumed that Ben and company would perhaps be a ‘wee bit’ more patient with their liquidity presents – not so, it seems that they may want to take them back sooner than perceived. The Fed is not poised to raise rates anytime soon, but assuming key data keeps improving, they will look to trim the monthly $85-billion bond purchase later this year. This week’s precise FOMC message has resulted in aggressively pushing US Treasury yields to reach 21-month highs, allowing the “mighty buck” to rule once again.
The Fed committee has judged that the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the specifically the labor market has lessened over the last eight-months. Chairman Bernanke stated: “if the subsequent data remain broadly aligned with our current expectations for the economy, we would continue to reduce the pace of purchases in measured steps through the first half of next year, ending purchases around midyear”. A percentage of the market had been expecting for the first cutback in the Fed’s $85b a month QE3 program asset to begin in September. However, with the current aggressive asset pricing is indicating that the end of July’s FOMC meet is now in play. This is of course is assuming that the US labor market data does not deteriorate and inflation expectations hold near their new levels.
The markets post-FOMC reaction is highlighting the lack of liquidity and risk-taking in rates and fixed income markets. Could the rallies now be relatively shallow from here? 2015 is earmarked as the earliest hike date. However, with the FOMC committee striving for a+6.5% unemployment next year would surely increase the possibility of an earlier hike – maybe 2014? The surprisingly hawkish tone this week from the FOMC would suggests that investors should be expecting further tightening on the stronger US fundamentals. This scenario certainly bodes well for the “mighty dollars” future. However, will every NFP print from here on in post close to +300k and change? That’s what is required to drag the US unemployment rate lower, sub +7%.
With the Fed dominating market direction, the better than expected composite prints from France, Germany and Euro-zone this week has been very much drowned out, discounted and ignored. Anxiety, mass liquidation and margin requirements have been pushing G10 currencies to test some key support levels, as 21-month US yields highs force the USD to the ‘top of the pile’. With so much market intensity having been built up, investors and dealers are grateful with the lack of fundamental releases today. Is this market in the process of catching its second wind perhaps?
Euro-bourses, crude and precious metal prices have staged a modest recovery ahead of the US open this morning. The markets are tying to instill some sense of normality after this weeks rout over the FOMC exiting fears. Is this the mini-”calm before the storm”? After two heavy sessions of major losses can the individuals that have been caught in the headlights hold their nerve even further? The fundamentals will not be playing a role today; this market will be technically driven, perhaps leading to a further potential selloff ahead of the weekend.
Emerging central banks continue to be active, trying to take measures to stem the slide of their own currencies. This has raised “the likelihood of rebalancing flows supporting the dollar in the majors.” Despite these currency moves been rather large, they have yet to spur “true risk aversion” in their region. For anyone to hedge their bets, they ironically are required to buy some USD. It seems that many individuals are reluctant to do this, mostly on the back of having to exit similar positions just only last week. It’s worth noting that the trade of the moment has only a reluctant few traders on board so far.
The EUR’s minimum downside target of 1.3170 is in danger of being triggered, potentially opening up a route to 1.3110. The market will be expected to remain short-term bearish as long as we stay below 1.3325. For the Yen, despite Japanese repatriation continuing, the dollar remains to be bought on dips-above ¥97.00, the next target is ¥99.00+. A close above ¥97.57 is needed to strengthen the strong dollar argument further. Last week, Japanese residents sold -¥402b of foreign bonds, up slightly from the preceding week. Even the selling of foreign equity continues, although at a slower pace. PM Abe and BoJ will be much relieved with the markets current price action, but for how long?
Posted by Dean Popplewell at 6:27 am EDT, 06/21/2013 on oanda.com
Do investors have time to let some of this week’s open wounds to heal? Time is commodity we are trading. The market assumed that Ben and company would perhaps be a ‘wee bit’ more patient with their liquidity presents – not so, it seems that they may want to take them back sooner than perceived. The Fed is not poised to raise rates anytime soon, but assuming key data keeps improving, they will look to trim the monthly $85-billion bond purchase later this year. This week’s precise FOMC message has resulted in aggressively pushing US Treasury yields to reach 21-month highs, allowing the “mighty buck” to rule once again.
The Fed committee has judged that the downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the specifically the labor market has lessened over the last eight-months. Chairman Bernanke stated: “if the subsequent data remain broadly aligned with our current expectations for the economy, we would continue to reduce the pace of purchases in measured steps through the first half of next year, ending purchases around midyear”. A percentage of the market had been expecting for the first cutback in the Fed’s $85b a month QE3 program asset to begin in September. However, with the current aggressive asset pricing is indicating that the end of July’s FOMC meet is now in play. This is of course is assuming that the US labor market data does not deteriorate and inflation expectations hold near their new levels.
The markets post-FOMC reaction is highlighting the lack of liquidity and risk-taking in rates and fixed income markets. Could the rallies now be relatively shallow from here? 2015 is earmarked as the earliest hike date. However, with the FOMC committee striving for a+6.5% unemployment next year would surely increase the possibility of an earlier hike – maybe 2014? The surprisingly hawkish tone this week from the FOMC would suggests that investors should be expecting further tightening on the stronger US fundamentals. This scenario certainly bodes well for the “mighty dollars” future. However, will every NFP print from here on in post close to +300k and change? That’s what is required to drag the US unemployment rate lower, sub +7%.
With the Fed dominating market direction, the better than expected composite prints from France, Germany and Euro-zone this week has been very much drowned out, discounted and ignored. Anxiety, mass liquidation and margin requirements have been pushing G10 currencies to test some key support levels, as 21-month US yields highs force the USD to the ‘top of the pile’. With so much market intensity having been built up, investors and dealers are grateful with the lack of fundamental releases today. Is this market in the process of catching its second wind perhaps?
Euro-bourses, crude and precious metal prices have staged a modest recovery ahead of the US open this morning. The markets are tying to instill some sense of normality after this weeks rout over the FOMC exiting fears. Is this the mini-”calm before the storm”? After two heavy sessions of major losses can the individuals that have been caught in the headlights hold their nerve even further? The fundamentals will not be playing a role today; this market will be technically driven, perhaps leading to a further potential selloff ahead of the weekend.
Emerging central banks continue to be active, trying to take measures to stem the slide of their own currencies. This has raised “the likelihood of rebalancing flows supporting the dollar in the majors.” Despite these currency moves been rather large, they have yet to spur “true risk aversion” in their region. For anyone to hedge their bets, they ironically are required to buy some USD. It seems that many individuals are reluctant to do this, mostly on the back of having to exit similar positions just only last week. It’s worth noting that the trade of the moment has only a reluctant few traders on board so far.
The EUR’s minimum downside target of 1.3170 is in danger of being triggered, potentially opening up a route to 1.3110. The market will be expected to remain short-term bearish as long as we stay below 1.3325. For the Yen, despite Japanese repatriation continuing, the dollar remains to be bought on dips-above ¥97.00, the next target is ¥99.00+. A close above ¥97.57 is needed to strengthen the strong dollar argument further. Last week, Japanese residents sold -¥402b of foreign bonds, up slightly from the preceding week. Even the selling of foreign equity continues, although at a slower pace. PM Abe and BoJ will be much relieved with the markets current price action, but for how long?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it