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The DIBS Method... No Free Lunch continues

  • #10,381
  • May 27, 2013 7:29am May 27, 2013 7:29am
Quoting andygrope
Can anyone help please?I do not really know how to work out the strongest and weakest on the day.Anyone got an easy way of working it out.
It is easy. For the pairs you are considering, compare the "current price" with:

1. Current daily open
2. Current weekly open
3. Previous weekly close (if the weekend gap is signicant)
4. Current monthly open (optional if you plan to hold your positions indefinitely)

The pair that has moved away the furthest is the strongest/weakest market.
  • #10,382
  • May 27, 2013 8:11am May 27, 2013 8:11am
Thanks heaps Yonseo.
I really appreciate your help.
  • #10,383
  • May 28, 2013 11:24am May 28, 2013 11:24am
Hi, i love the insights from everyone. Very helpful. I use a very similar method with a few small additions to define entry clearer but im wanting to try a different more efficient exit. I trade the daily and i am wanting to use long term moving averages to try and get the latest exit possible.

Does anyone have a clear exit method using long term moving averages? Or weekly/monthly swing lows/highs?

Keep your blades sharp!
  • #10,384
  • May 28, 2013 10:25pm May 28, 2013 10:25pm
Quoting Nametaker
Hi, i love the insights from everyone. Very helpful. I use a very similar method with a few small additions to define entry clearer but im wanting to try a different more efficient exit. I trade the daily and i am wanting to use long term moving averages to try and get the latest exit possible. Does anyone have a clear exit method using long term moving averages? Or weekly/monthly swing lows/highs?
Exits are subjective based on the individual. All you need to do is think of a method by drawing moving averages or horizonal lines on your charts and find a balance of what satisfies your own needs. Just make a checklist of the possobilities of the outcome whether favorable or not.

The biggest dilemma of choosing a moving average is that if we use a shorter period moving average, there are alot of instances where you exit on a small profit only to see the price move hundreds or thousands of pips further from where we exited. If we use a longer period moving average, we end up waiting much longer only to give back the market alot of our unrealized profits when we actually do exit.

You could even think of something ridiculously simple as trailing your position every 100pips and find it profitable. This means moving your SL to breakeven at 100 pips of unreazlied profits then moving your SL to 100pips of profit when you have 200pips of unrealized. Then the checklist of outcomes will be as follows.

1. You get stopped out on a loss based on your SL before the breakeven target of 100 pips of unrealized profits is reached.
2. You reach a profit between 100-200 pips but the price ends up stopping you out on BE on zero loss.
3. If you reach an unrealized profit of 200pips or greater then you are guarenteed profits of 100pips or greater.
4. You are willing to give back at least 100 pips of unrealized profits but no more than 200 pips of unrealized profits when you exit.
5. The price makes a counter trend move greater than 200 pips taking out your stop on either breakeven or the defined profit from the traling stop but later resumes the trend of making new highs or lows.

Since no one can know the exact tops and bottoms. It is a give and take at the end of the day. Regardless of the exit method you choose.
  • #10,385
  • May 28, 2013 11:58pm May 28, 2013 11:58pm
Quoting Nametaker
Hi, i love the insights from everyone. Very helpful. I use a very similar method with a few small additions to define entry clearer but im wanting to try a different more efficient exit. I trade the daily and i am wanting to use long term moving averages to try and get the latest exit possible. Does anyone have a clear exit method using long term moving averages? Or weekly/monthly swing lows/highs?
A very helpful member gave me the idea to look at the thesystem established by Steve Hopwood's website where there is a pdf giving instructions on when to get out for longer trades using a ma 2 on the monthly chart and 240 on the 4h chart.
Nanningbob is one of the local heroes and the system is 10.4 - I just looked at it for the use of the ma's - they have complex indicators I have not tried to figure out.
Another ma based one is by the original TMS founder - Dean Malone I think at CompassFX - he has a channel created by a couple of ma's and as long as the closes are above or below you stay with the trade. Google them and you will find them.
Cheers
  • #10,386
  • May 29, 2013 2:34am May 29, 2013 2:34am
Quoting yonseo
{quote} Exits are subjective based on the individual. All you need to do is think of a method by drawing moving averages or horizonal lines on your charts and find a balance of what satisfies your own needs. Just make a checklist of the possobilities of the outcome whether favorable or not. The biggest dilemma of choosing a moving average is that if we use a shorter period moving average, there are alot of instances where you exit on a small profit only to see the price move hundreds or thousands of pips further from where we exited. If we use a...
Thanks for the info yonseo. Using the daily time frame the 100 pip S/L exit method seems to get stopped out quite a lot. I will just have to try them all and see which works best.

Thanks
Keep your blades sharp!
  • #10,387
  • May 29, 2013 4:02am May 29, 2013 4:02am
Lots of ways to get into a trade and out of a trade. For me, I keep it simple. That's the beauty of this strategy. If the daily is going up, I look for long Dibs trades. If I get a runner, the logic that would have made me buy should be why I close a buy (sell). And vice versa. Of course, this does not have to be a reverse hourly Dibs trade, but it could be...
Gone to a better place
  • #10,388
  • May 29, 2013 5:04am May 29, 2013 5:04am
Quoting smikester
Lots of ways to get into a trade and out of a trade. For me, I keep it simple. That's the beauty of this strategy. If the daily is going up, I look for long Dibs trades. If I get a runner, the logic that would have made me buy should be why I close a buy (sell). And vice versa. Of course, this does not have to be a reverse hourly Dibs trade, but it could be...
Could you elaborate? I don't quite get what you are saying.
Keep your blades sharp!
  • #10,389
  • May 29, 2013 6:08am May 29, 2013 6:08am
May be he is just indexing that he would follow the trend to take up the trades so that he can make quite a lot of pips and buying in the dibs is good option provided its the strong support which would bounce and give more pips.
  • #10,390
  • May 29, 2013 6:13am May 29, 2013 6:13am
Quoting Nametaker
{quote} Could you elaborate? I don't quite get what you are saying.
A closed buy is a sell. A closed sell is a buy. Therefore, if my H1 inside bar strategy is to follow the daily trend (which it is in my case) then I would question closing that trade unless I had decided the trend had changed and was actively looking for trades in the opposite direction. I hope this make it clearer.
Gone to a better place
  • #10,391
  • May 29, 2013 7:31am May 29, 2013 7:31am
Quoting smikester
{quote} A closed buy is a sell. A closed sell is a buy. Therefore, if my H1 inside bar strategy is to follow the daily trend (which it is in my case) then I would question closing that trade unless I had decided the trend had changed and was actively looking for trades in the opposite direction. I hope this make it clearer.
A closed buy is a sell. A closed sell is a buy. Its this part i don't get.

So if i go short on an inside bar that is down on last months close (im using daily) then i should only question closing the position if next months inside bar is up?
Keep your blades sharp!
  • #10,392
  • May 29, 2013 9:28am May 29, 2013 9:28am
Well, your broker is counter party to your trades. If you buy, then close, you are selling to your broker. It's a sell order. And vice versa

Now here's a chart to illustrate my point:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy130529d1.JPG Size: 99 KB


I chose this pair because it's been trending nicely this year. It hasn't been a good year for trends for the majors, so far. So, at the blue box, say, I decide I want to join in the trend and take hourly Dibs trades on "up" days. I take half at 1 : 1 and let the rest run. In this case my definition of an up trend is that the price has left the 30dma and the 30 dma is sloping.

After about 3 : 1 or better, I make a decision to let it run. Even though there are down days in this trend, the original decision to buy was made because (a) the price left the 30dma and (b) the 30 dma was sloping and (c) I found an hourly inside bar on an "up" day.

So, in this example, I might choose to close only when the opposite applied.
Gone to a better place
  • #10,393
  • Jun 2, 2013 2:29am Jun 2, 2013 2:29am
I understand. Thanks for explaining : )
Keep your blades sharp!
  • #10,394
  • Edited 4:29pm Jun 17, 2013 3:26pm | Edited 4:29pm
RE: Winners

Peter Crowns is genius.

Peter Crowns, I believe, is a discretionary trader. This should be the biggest clue to most traders in this thread. I would not listen to RazorTrader or whatever his name is. Smikester (chart) seems to be on the right track, as do a few others...whether they know it or not is another matter...

I thought I knew it months ago. I have just this second realised how close I was. It is the simplest methods that are correct. The simplest price actions that do not lie...that price intention cannot hide from. DIBS is not about entering every trade. It must only be done in the strongest markets. People have not been clear what this means in the past...shamefully so imho. I now know how simple a concept this is. I now understand what "correct trading" is all about. It was there all the time,...perversely so. A break out or whatever description you place on this is a clue to understanding when to take a trade. The weight of the market must be on your side...

Correct trading has everything to do with TIME. Think about it. Some will understand, most will not. When you do understand, you will not believe how stupid you have been. I am sorry if I have given the game away...it was always there to be found. It is all about timing. Game theory is about probability. TIME is the constant. "Armstrong" understands this too - it is "just time" or timing...

"Jesse" attacked the markets with little (low risk) trades. It is how and when you attack the market with low risk trades that must be the question traders should ask themselves...

I repeat: it is how and when you attack the markets that must be the question traders should ask themselves...

Livermore tested the market according to his "feeling". Perhaps, he had sufficient capital to impact the market then. I trade according to price as it relates to time. The markets do not lie. Therefore, price does not lie. The Holy Grail is not about a system. The Holy Grail is about truth. It can be found in each and every one of us (our own utility). Therefore, all trading is discretionary. Razortrader and others, you are wrong! We have the ability to trade better than a machine, better than just mechanically. We can be creative within our Matrix. We can trade when it most suits us to do so...when probability dictates it would be stupid not to. Others trade even when it is stupid to do so because they believe in a "collective" mindset. "Stupid is as stupid does". Unfortunately, society is easily blinded. Thank you Snow.d..e..n.

Peter Crowns. Thank you for all your help (my first loss...). I will repay you somehow...even if I can just be a buddy, a trading buddy to bounce ideas off. It took me a long time to finally realise what you mean. I had to find out my way. I understand this now.

I drink from the "Holy Grail"....I am flying! Weather is great too...
Best
KR

  • #10,395
  • Jun 18, 2013 11:11am Jun 18, 2013 11:11am
@ Knight Rider

So in one word: "When"

What tools do you use to find out "When" ?
If you don't want to spoil the fun for the people that are searching the way to make it in this business, please pm me the above answer

regards
Chake
Persistence will get it. Consistency will keep it.
  • #10,396
  • Jun 18, 2013 1:03pm Jun 18, 2013 1:03pm
Quoting yonseo
{quote} It is easy. For the pairs you are considering, compare the "current price" with: 1. Current daily open 2. Current weekly open 3. Previous weekly close (if the weekend gap is signicant) 4. Current monthly open (optional if you plan to hold your positions indefinitely) The pair that has moved away the furthest is the strongest/weakest market.
This approach to strength/weakness analysis has limited use, especially when comparing two or more pairs. It naively assumes it is valid to compare directly distances in pips from different pairs. As if volatility was a constant. Clearly, that is a wrong assumption. This approach s/w readings will be skewed: pairs that move a lot more pips on average (ie high volatility pairs) will give the strongest/weakest readings 99.9% of the time, even when that is not the case.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #10,397
  • Edited 6:49am Jun 20, 2013 6:25am | Edited 6:49am
Quoting Chake
@ Knight Rider So in one word: "When" What tools do you use to find out "When" ? If you don't want to spoil the fun for the people that are searching the way to make it in this business, please pm me the above answer regards Chake
Chake, I no longer have much interest in posting in this thread because I believe mostly these forums are just loser forums. Perhaps, I fell into this category too many months ago?...

Anyway, the answer to your question (in my opinion) has already been answered above and lies within your question. It is just TIME. The "tools" you speak of should be the simplest tools that are required to prove to you that real significance is on your side. The simplest tools that we have is price as it relates to time. What could be simpler? Therefore, what would make you believe that real significance is on your side? I wouldn't have thought it was the 5m chart, would you (hint)? Ask yourself how price action relates to TIME. How would you measure this simply in order to trade correctly. Once you know when to trade, dibs is just one tool to get into the market. TIME is the constant.

Unfortunately, must people don't even know what they know, let alone how to trade. They are their own trustees. They still live in their own MATRIX. Therefore, they trade according to their own Matrix;...their own predetermined rules. Therefore, they are not trading freely or creatively.

I am MAN. I am the beneficial interest of my name. I own my name. My consent (importantly) is always required.

Most people ARE trustees. They don't even know who they are yet. They want to be free. They want to trade, yet they still have "canoes" and if they are lucky, get to have (get the privilege of having) "oars" in which to sail the seas. They have legal names and are under legal rights and request/beg legal privileges from their business (do you even know who your "BUSINESS" is?). Therefore these people have only legal rights. I am the beneficial interest of my name. My parents gave me my name. Therefore, I am a battleship to sail the seas. I have "lawful" rights. I require no privileges. My rights ARE my rights. I am not a trustee. I am the beneficiary of my name. I am a battleship. I am MAN. Respectively, be a MAN too! Become a Battleship....
(know your contract/trust law)

....my humour to pass the time away.

...don't thank me when you finally "get it". Just use it in the future to protect this world, your family and the children of the next generations.

  • #10,398
  • Jun 23, 2013 9:32am Jun 23, 2013 9:32am
Quoting Knight Rider
don't thank me when you finally "get it". Just use it in the future to protect this world, your family and the children of the next generations.
I send you a PM
Persistence will get it. Consistency will keep it.
  • #10,399
  • Edited 10:24am Jun 25, 2013 10:09am | Edited 10:24am
Quoting Chake
{quote} I send you a PM
Hi Chake,

Thank you for your message.

The easiest and simplest tools we have are plain for all to see. For example, why not consider trading in only the strongest markets. How about simply looking at a chart and figuring out quickly if the gradient is nice and steep or has stalled or is in consolidation mode? Each correction along this steep curve might have a significant bar which takes out the proceeding bar. Are there any bars which stand out along this trend after any minor corrections? Remember, time is the constant. You have to have significance on your side. What time level would you require to prove significance...i.e. that the market is now trending along your chosen path again.

A good Donchian method might be helpful in determining when to trade in a dead market...

Ride the wave wisely and in only one direction. Tough to do otherwise in the real world of surfing, wouldn't you think? Your "place to stand" is determined by this and by the risk you are willing to take.

Best

KR
  • #10,400
  • Jul 20, 2013 3:28am Jul 20, 2013 3:28am
Hi all....This is a cry for help! Is there a version of the 'Dibs Trigger lines' indicator that will work on Daily Charts. It's the only Time Frame I'm happy with, & it would be very useful to me. Many thanks for reading this post.
So make sure it's an exciting one, 'cos it's the only one you get!
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