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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #34,761
  • Jun 19, 2013 3:44pm Jun 19, 2013 3:44pm
Quoting iahmedz
what makes you bearish on USDJPY ? {quote}
I am bearish on all yen pairs. I currently dont have an exposure to UJ, but im short EJ and GJ

My reasons are a combination of technical and (recently) fundamental, was waiting for bernanke to speak, now its confirmed, looking for 93 or lower in the coming days and weeks
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #34,762
  • Jun 19, 2013 4:13pm Jun 19, 2013 4:13pm
Quoting theDHT
{quote} I am bearish on all yen pairs. I currently dont have an exposure to UJ, but im short EJ and GJ My reasons are a combination of technical and (recently) fundamental, was waiting for bernanke to speak, now its confirmed, looking for 93 or lower in the coming days and weeks
Hate to be the one to tell that the bull run is just getting started. You cannot throw away the FOMC statements and its potential effect on the market.
  • #34,763
  • Jun 19, 2013 4:16pm Jun 19, 2013 4:16pm
i love to see what happens when the Asia market opens.
  • #34,764
  • Jun 19, 2013 4:18pm Jun 19, 2013 4:18pm
Quoting strategos
{quote} Hate to be the one to tell that the bull run is just getting started. You cannot throw away the FOMC statements and its potential effect on the market.

I started shorting this pair at 102.4, long before many people here saw it, and closed them close to the lows, i havent seen anything in the pa to turn me bullish yet, yet i remain a flexible bear at this point, and a humble student of the market
What i see now is a bull trap
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #34,765
  • Jun 19, 2013 4:20pm Jun 19, 2013 4:20pm
Ok, there are two main ways for this, 1 US Dollar weaks. 2 Japanese Yen become stronger. Do you think Yen will become strong or other?

Quoting theDHT
{quote} I am bearish on all yen pairs. I currently dont have an exposure to UJ, but im short EJ and GJ My reasons are a combination of technical and (recently) fundamental, was waiting for bernanke to speak, now its confirmed, looking for 93 or lower in the coming days and weeks
  • #34,766
  • Jun 19, 2013 4:24pm Jun 19, 2013 4:24pm
Quoting iahmedz
Ok, there are two main ways for this, 1 US Dollar weaks. 2 Japanese Yen become stronger. Do you think Yen will become strong or other? {quote}
  • #34,767
  • Jun 19, 2013 4:25pm Jun 19, 2013 4:25pm
This is what is see from a daily perspective and i have not been disappointed. 1,2,3 and now 4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily chart.png Size: 55 KB
  • #34,768
  • Jun 19, 2013 4:31pm Jun 19, 2013 4:31pm
Quoting iahmedz
Ok, there are two main ways for this, 1 US Dollar weaks. 2 Japanese Yen become stronger. Do you think Yen will become strong or other? {quote}
Yen futures have been trending upwards for a month, higher highs and higher lows
JGb yields are creeping towards 1%, which in turn supports the yen move
Most impotantly, track the correlation of UJ to the SPX, todays selloff in the us market was caused by berenankes speech,
If US equity markets head lower, so will the yen pairs, and the yen futures will get stronger
BoJ policy may start to pick up traction later this summer, but right now, the trade is looking like risk off to me, which implies more downside
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #34,769
  • Jun 19, 2013 4:33pm Jun 19, 2013 4:33pm
Quoting strategos
This is what is see from a daily perspective and i have not been disappointed. 1,2,3 and now 4 {image}
I am failing to see how this chart looks bullish to you...
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #34,770
  • Jun 19, 2013 4:39pm Jun 19, 2013 4:39pm
Quoting theDHT
{quote} I started shorting this pair at 102.4, long before many people here saw it, and closed them close to the lows, i havent seen anything in the pa to turn me bullish yet, yet i remain a flexible bear at this point, and a humble student of the market What i see now is a bull trap
Cant wait to quote this post a week from now when it breaks 100 again ^_^
  • #34,771
  • Jun 19, 2013 4:46pm Jun 19, 2013 4:46pm
Quoting Murdetrain
{quote} Cant wait to quote this post a week from now when it breaks 100 again ^_^
If we start going there, i will already be long.
Word of advice to you: i dont know how long you have been trading, but when it comes to the markets, only fools speak in absolute terms, stay flexible, stay a student
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #34,772
  • Jun 19, 2013 4:55pm Jun 19, 2013 4:55pm
Quoting theDHT
{quote} If we start going there, i will already be long. Word of advice to you: i dont know how long you have been trading, but when it comes to the markets, only fools speak in absolute terms, stay flexible, stay a student

Yet you cant see the bullish nature of the chart. Ok Jeff, you're totally right.
  • #34,773
  • Jun 19, 2013 4:56pm Jun 19, 2013 4:56pm
hmmmmm I am trading for Feb this year. So I am yet a learner .
  • #34,774
  • Jun 19, 2013 5:58pm Jun 19, 2013 5:58pm
I'm long from 96.34 and I'm not sure when I should TP - now or never.. We have DXY up / US10 y t-notes down (UJ friendly) and S&P dropping like a rock ?? If this is a bull trap - well done, bears.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #34,775
  • Jun 19, 2013 9:00pm Jun 19, 2013 9:00pm
How does S&P relates to UJ?

Quoting bikov
I'm long from 96.34 and I'm not sure when I should TP - now or never.. We have DXY up / US10 y t-notes down (UJ friendly) and S&P dropping like a rock ?? If this is a bull trap - well done, bears.
  • #34,776
  • Jun 20, 2013 12:55am Jun 20, 2013 12:55am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} Yen futures have been trending upwards for a month, higher highs and higher lows JGb yields are creeping towards 1%, which in turn supports the yen move Most impotantly, track the correlation of UJ to the SPX, todays selloff in the us market was caused by berenankes speech, If US equity markets head lower, so will the yen pairs, and the yen futures will get stronger BoJ policy may start to pick up traction later this summer, but right now, the trade is looking like risk off to me, which implies more downside
Hang on a minute, JGB yields are creeping up because the market is rejecting them. How is that good for the Yen?
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #34,777
  • Jun 20, 2013 12:56am Jun 20, 2013 12:56am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} .... i dont know how long you have been trading, but when it comes to the markets, only fools speak in absolute terms, stay flexible, stay a student
Wise words.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #34,778
  • Jun 20, 2013 12:57am Jun 20, 2013 12:57am
"good" depends on your orientation. higher yields support a stronger yen, this is not "good" from the view of kuroda and co

Quoting Exodus
{quote} Hang on a minute, JGB yields are creeping up because the market is rejecting them. How is that good for the Yen?
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #34,779
  • Jun 20, 2013 1:02am Jun 20, 2013 1:02am
i will post some of my charts/analysis a little later. i have following this pair "passively" for about 10 days, because im not trading it. if you go to the following thread, you will see my projection for EJ, which "appears" to be playing out pretty well atm: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...40#post6762240

i like EJ/GJ more than UJ (as a proxy to play the yens) because there is less room for error, and they yield a lot more pips...
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #34,780
  • Jun 20, 2013 1:06am Jun 20, 2013 1:06am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} Hang on a minute, JGB yields are creeping up because the market is rejecting them. How is that good for the Yen?
coupons and yields are inversely correlated (under normal distribution curve)
coupons and index are directly correlated (under normal distribution curve)
currency and index are inversely correlated (under normal distribution curve)
coupons and currency are directly correlated (under normal distribution curve)

using this as a guide, the break in correlations that we have seen between SPX and DXY over last few weeks is highly unusual, and like a rubber band, will snap in one direction or the other when tension reaches its apex
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
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