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Sonic R. System

  • #51,481
  • Jun 19, 2013 8:25am Jun 19, 2013 8:25am
Damn u haze..


Sonic
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  • #51,482
  • Jun 19, 2013 8:28am Jun 19, 2013 8:28am
Quoting DmitryFX
{quote} Look around! Other currencies (GU, AU, UCHF, UCAD) are showing good (for me, because i am still long EU and short Chf) signs But definitely calm before the storm. {image}
Aliqators on the Loose

Look at all of these on H1. Though some have very large ranges due to swings over the past week or so, they are all still in their ranges. Predicting direction only on moves, or current positions within the range is like watching a swamp full of aligators that are thrashing around, and betting on which side of the swamp they will come out.

No doubt any activity (which has all but stopped) is for a purpose, but more information than that is required if you're going to have a good idea which side of the swamp is the safest.
  • #51,483
  • Jun 19, 2013 8:28am Jun 19, 2013 8:28am
Quoting traderathome
Universal Stop Loss Method? Just imagine. If the market makers are allowed to manipulate prices (and suddenly so) as much as two hundred pips per day, then maybe that is the universal SL method. Add two hundred pips to what you think the other Market Manipulators might do to the price before the market makers step in, and .........
If MM are BEARs by EU which side to be wiped out first?
Everything is possible!!! Step by Step...
  • #51,484
  • Jun 19, 2013 8:34am Jun 19, 2013 8:34am
Quoting DmitryFX
{quote} If MM are BEARs by EU which side to be wiped out first?

Dmitry i think both.
  • #51,485
  • Jun 19, 2013 8:35am Jun 19, 2013 8:35am
Quoting sonicdeejay
Damn u haze.. Sonic {image}
not me sir , boss lumber live there
  • #51,486
  • Jun 19, 2013 8:47am Jun 19, 2013 8:47am
Quoting DmitryFX
{quote} If MM are BEARs by EU which side to be wiped out first?
EU, Bullish or Bearish?

One can know via PVSRA, bu not know which side might be wiped out first.

PVSRA indicates the MMs are bears. It is clear they move price up, and once having attained a higher level, they heavily selloff from that area. They wait, then they repeat.

However, at any time the MMs (which includes market makers) could suddenly ram the price 50-150+ pips one way or both. Such a move would never be defining as bull or bear, but just be a maneuver by either to further their ends.
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  • #51,487
  • Jun 19, 2013 8:49am Jun 19, 2013 8:49am
Setting SL

I have to think as well what will happen if the price goes up and the dollar weakness go further. I made an analysis about zones, fibos retracement and expansions and so on and I decided to put my SLs in this zones. For now it's just mental because I need a daily candle to close above that zone, but that's my limit for the total of my entries.

In EU, the 1.61 extension and in GU the 1.27. I think they both are reasonable zones. Of course I still think EU and GU are bears but I need to set up the worst case scenario.
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To fail is just an opportunity to learn
  • #51,488
  • Jun 19, 2013 8:50am Jun 19, 2013 8:50am
Quoting Markus67
{quote} Dmitry i think both.
It is impossible by definition!
or up and get sl's of bears and to involve into the game new bulls then down and get sl's of bulls and finally up.
or down and get sl's of bulls and to involve into the game new bears then up and get sl's of bears and finally down.
So, or up or down.
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Everything is possible!!! Step by Step...
  • #51,489
  • Jun 19, 2013 8:52am Jun 19, 2013 8:52am
Quoting jasakreatif
{quote} not me sir , boss lumber live there

yeah. person like u usually live at yogyakarta. m i correct ?
  • #51,490
  • Edited 9:26am Jun 19, 2013 9:11am | Edited 9:26am
Quoting forexpiet
{quote} Why not post an overview of open positions like the results overview and or max DD during the week for every pair traded? That would complete the PVRSA 'performance'.
Sorry for the delay. Been quite busy.

Why do you ask me to do more work? Do I not do enough for eveyone already? Yes I do. Do more? No thanks. I post my trades real-time, both trade open and trade closed postings. If anyone is truely interested in the information you seek, and is willing to spend their time (not mine) to get it, they are free to do so.

Everyone has to use their own judgement if trading via "building a position" vs "single large entry" as to how large a trade size they should use in order to withstand the sort of adverse ranging they might well experience. My posted trades alone provide adequate warning of the degree of adverse ranging that might be encountered.

Caution about trade size has been repeated here often enough, and included more than sufficiently in the PDFs on PVSRA in Post #1, on page #1.

Do the work yourself if you want the information. It is there for the taking. Just find the difference between the average price and the current price for any trade, and multiply that by the number of trade components to get the pips profit/loss for the trade. Do it with all open trades and add the profits/losses. Now you have the net profit/loss in pips for all open trades. That is easy enough for anyone to do for themselves. I am a trader, not a baby sitter.

-tah
  • #51,491
  • Jun 19, 2013 9:43am Jun 19, 2013 9:43am
Anybody knows about options? Maybe somebody has big option around 1.342 and now fighting with market to protect it?
Everything is possible!!! Step by Step...
  • #51,492
  • Jun 19, 2013 9:56am Jun 19, 2013 9:56am
Quoting DmitryFX
Anybody knows about options? Maybe somebody has big option around 1.342 and now fighting with market to protect it?
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/0...0am-ny-cut-59/
If you think you can do a thing or think you can't do a thing, you're right
  • #51,493
  • Edited 10:36am Jun 19, 2013 10:07am | Edited 10:36am
Market Comment

I am sure the MMs, the "market", already know what is going to happen as regards the FOMC and future price moves because they are the ones that are going to make it happen, and insider trading is legal in the currency market, and the substance of the FOMC release is most likey already known by them. Therefore, I can only see two reasons for the "lazy summer day" action in the market leading up to the FOMC.

1. The MMs might capture a bit more of "local" liquidity to be able to "quietly" add to their positions without adversely affecting the price levels they are pushing prices to for that purpose, and ......

2. If the market makers, or the bigger MMs are planning substantial whips to capture "non-local" liquidity, then the longer they wait the more traders they will ensnare with them.

So, those already positioned and those not positioned (and not intending to do so until the dust settles) probably should just take a nap for several hours. It is even possible the market itself is basically asleep until tomorrow, when the real "action" might start to happen. Today is only Wednesday. The longer the MMs wait, the more traders/liquidity they can ensnare.

The market makers become the "Wild Card". They can manipulate price up to 200 pips a day. They can conspire do it very quickly to minimize others taking advantage of the move. And they can do it solely for reasons of personal profit. So, the question is will they do it,....... today, tomorrow, both days?
  • #51,494
  • Jun 19, 2013 10:39am Jun 19, 2013 10:39am
Quoting traderathome
Market Comment I am sure the MMs, the "market", already know what is going to happen as regards the FOMC and future price moves because they are the ones that are going to make it happen, and insider trading is legal in the currency market, and the substance of the FOMC release is most likey already known by them. Therefore, I can only see two reasons for the "lazy summer day" action in the market leading up to the FOMC. 1. The MMs might capture a bit more of "local" liquidity to be able to "quietly" add to their positions without adversely...

TAH, can you help define "local" liquidity - do you mean local as in time or something else. TIA
Think : Trade : Live Life
  • #51,495
  • Jun 19, 2013 10:45am Jun 19, 2013 10:45am
Tough Day Indeed!!!

Scout trades..

Sonic
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  • #51,496
  • Edited 11:27am Jun 19, 2013 10:55am | Edited 11:27am
Quoting stt
{quote} TAH, can you help define "local" liquidity - do you mean local as in time or something else. TIA
The Forex Market, Owned and Operated by the Largest Syndicate of Thieves in the World

By "local" liquidity I mean local in price.

The point is, if the MMs move the price to a new, more favorable level in order to add, they don't want to have to backtrack the price much in order to add. So, they keep price in a tight range and wait for liquidity to seep in. As it does, if they can use it to add, they do. If they were to backtrack the price too much in order to capture liquidity to add, then they'd be revealing what they are, bulls or bears, and what they are up to. And if they do that, then they suddenly get more competition for whatever liquidity seeps in for "right side" order executions! They don't like that to happen. They prefer to get as much of the useable liquidity for themselves.

The MMs are Thieves. So, it is like a thief that has his favorite neighborhood he works at night. He doesn't want to advertise how good the neighborhood is for thieving and have others come in to take advantage of it. He wants to keep it all to himself as much as possible.

Edit: Had to add a pizazz Title. And screw the banks and market makers if they are upset!
  • #51,497
  • Jun 19, 2013 11:12am Jun 19, 2013 11:12am
FWIW: The biggest priceinterest was today @ 1.3390-1.3395
3 x more trades than other pricelevels.
I counting the trades per price so thats how I know
Long @ 1.3402
  • #51,498
  • Jun 19, 2013 11:12am Jun 19, 2013 11:12am
Watch and see divergence on EUR/USD on 4hrs chart maybe we could see some pull back or beginning of a down trend or according to TAH the MM might be running for profit... Just 2hr 30mins left...all fingers crossed
  • #51,499
  • Jun 19, 2013 11:29am Jun 19, 2013 11:29am
Quoting zawad4u
Watch and see divergence on EUR/USD on 4hrs chart maybe we could see some pull back or beginning of a down trend or according to TAH the MM might be running for profit... Just 2hr 30mins left...all fingers crossed
Ha!

"...all fingers crossed."

And here is where zawad4u wishes he was a centipede!
  • #51,500
  • Edited 11:54am Jun 19, 2013 11:36am | Edited 11:54am
Quoting ForeignTrade
FWIW: The biggest priceinterest was today @ 1.3390-1.3395 3 x more trades than other pricelevels. I counting the trades per price so thats how I know Long @ 1.3402
Non-SonicR Analysis

Counting trades is your way of determining if the MMs are bulls or bears?

Sure, the last thing the US MMs did yesterday was to be sure they left the price high, so they could resume trading at those levels today, ahead of FOMC. So, you'd have us believe that counting trades makes more sense than "buy low, sell high"? You are convinced the MMs hiked the price yesterday and left it there so they could have the opportunity to resume buying more high instead of low? And you are convinced of this simply by counting trades?

Every trade has both a buyer and a seller. So how do you know by simply counting trades which way the price will be sent next?

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