CHFZAR, Weekly/Monthly
I'll trade the market at daily chart.
++ Excellent probabilities?.... but non-serious cp > limited investments.
If the market price will go down under 9.925 set trailing stops with more cascading the shorts.
Short
a few relevant articles from Yves Smith and David Rosenberg re the FOMC this week, and outcome scenarios.........
there is a very Big POMO tomorrow......as much as $5.75 billion........there was a POMO last thursday and the S&P rallied almost 40 pts into the New York close that day from a low of 1600
if the market doubts the FED on tapering or if there is some doubt lingering into the official statement from Bernanke then it is possible for a sell opportunity (equity indexes ES/Dow/Nas) right after the POMO is placed ..........i will be watching PA for clues.......may be wrong but my 2 cents
my opinion on this 'tapering' issue so far; the message looks very confused/convoluted at the moment.......a lot of mixed signals form Bullard, Hilsenrath and some of the very dovish members like Williams, Rosengren and Evans recently seeming to move more toward a less dovish stance..
maybe the outcome is Bernanke attempting to convince the market there is a difference between 'taper' and rate hikes?........in other words tell the market the FED may decide to taper over the next several months but that rate hikes are a long way off.(but,everyone already knows that), and the fine nuances of differentiating seem like a hard sell at this point.
GS's L Blankfien made an interesting point in a Reuters article that the FED may have already accomplished its intention to jolt the market as is evidenced by rising bond yields not only in the US but probably more importantly in the EZ periphery.Spain and Italy.......
all of that begs the question about how higher rates in the US, the EZ or the EM or the inference of higher rates through 'tapering' help slowing economic growth....
But, as Yves Smith put it, "the (FED) may believe more “we’re staying with the program” messaging is better for the confidence fairy.".....
David Rosenberg had this out from late last week...worth the read....if Rosie is correct then SHTF, imo, but again, who knows with this FED?...........my other 2 cents is it is up there with the propaganda machine that used to be Pravda
From What I Hear........"From what I hear, Ben Bernanke convinced the FOMC in December that ................ The economy still faces near-term sequestering hurdles, but the reality is that a bold policy move aimed at thwarting off recession is now being reconsidered. Bernanke apparently told the hawks on the FOMC that if the economy was not in contraction mode by now, the 'tapering off' talk would ensue — and that is exactly what has happened."
hi Cube, a few relevant articles from Yves Smith and David Rosenberg re the FOMC this week, and outcome scenarios......... there is a very Big POMO tomorrow......as much as $5.75 billion........there was a POMO last thursday and the S&P rallied almost 40 pts into the New York close that day from a low of 1600 if the market doubts the FED on tapering or if there is some doubt lingering into the official statement from Bernanke then it is possible for a sell opportunity (equity indexes ES/Dow/Nas) right after the POMO is placed ..........i will be...
Thank you roro53 for these actual information,..really white-knuckle for me. The market seems fraught with tension.
News are like monkeys. They jump almost anywhere.
I hope I can make some profits with some news à la dernière minute this week.
FXcube
