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  • #808,061
  • Jun 15, 2013 12:11pm Jun 15, 2013 12:11pm
Quoting pkimnyc
{quote} not really interested in short side. if breaks south then i might catch few legs down, but more interested in buying at much lower price if dips. 3700 high will eventually be taken out, imo.
Lots of conviction you have going there brother. But as the saying goes... up until down, down until up. I think we should be seeing a pull back into the 3220 area. We are making a kind of compression'ish pattern right now. That unwinds pretty aggressively when it happens, so i expect to be taking back to the aforementioned area. On the weekly, I am still looking for a target of 3460 min, but more likely 3550. We also left a several levels that will need retested way down below, but who knows when we will return No doubt in my mind, weekly is pointing upwards though.
  • #808,062
  • Jun 15, 2013 12:22pm Jun 15, 2013 12:22pm
Well it failed to surpass 1.34 and tried multiple times to trade but could not. Euro up 5% in last few weeks, dollard own a good size while yen Hars been agressive. I do not doubt that eurusd will trade higher but I think it will need a catalyst. The market may be pricing in a taper, but that is unlikely to happen I think purely due to the unwillingness to see the market plummet. The euro mat trade back down to 1.33 until the fed meeting for confirmation. Once again we have seen the euro spike up only to slide back down. It's direction may rely largely on political risk on either side of the Atlantic. We already know what they fed is, but for the ez is still undecided. Draghi has not problems saying want he won't do but haven't heard much of what he will due. Spain has reached a debt record high and is accelerating fast, Greece is now an emerging economy, French payrolls did go anywhere and the ez block as a whole is still stagnanting. I am wondering at what point the euro will be talked down like many times before.

Excuse the typos my phone is retarded
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #808,063
  • Edited 12:48pm Jun 15, 2013 12:31pm | Edited 12:48pm
Quoting pkimnyc
{quote} not really interested in short side. if breaks south then i might catch few legs down, but more interested in buying at much lower price if dips. 3700 high will eventually be taken out, imo.

i see that one also as possible. i also see her tired atm. i expect 2997/85 ish... timing is the hard part. we haven't made the st LL since the hh. i have a 3420 target with many R points between, up to 3465 ish... but with 3420, 3237 happens most times first. 3237 is below 3276, that was the last low before the hh.. so a break in it, sets up 3176. below 3176, voids 3420. atm high is 339x... if the bears take 3176 area or just get close. we may bounce toward 3280/3320 ish. if we then break past (3176) we should go below 2997 (after bounce).. it may then need another bounce to the same area as before, and we all will be having this same consolidation discussion in the 3280/3300 area again.
w/o - 3276 no change in the bulls running the show. even then other levels have to be broken. all ponzi schemes need new money.
in a trend resumption bounces are less powerful against it.

later
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #808,064
  • Jun 15, 2013 12:55pm Jun 15, 2013 12:55pm
Quoting Venice
{quote} Lots of conviction you have going there brother. But as the saying goes... up until down, down until up. I think we should be seeing a pull back into the 3220 area. We are making a kind of compression'ish pattern right now. That unwinds pretty aggressively when it happens, so i expect to be taking back to the aforementioned area. On the weekly, I am still looking for a target of 3460 min, but more likely 3550. We also left a several levels that will need retested way down below, but who knows when we will return No doubt in my mind, weekly...
let's see how she plays out mate.

exhaustion or compression. we will know by next week.
  • #808,065
  • Jun 15, 2013 12:56pm Jun 15, 2013 12:56pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i see that one also as possible. i also see her tired atm. i expect 2997/85 ish... timing is the hard part. we haven't made the st LL since the hh. i have a 3420 target with many R points between, up to 3465 ish... but with 3420, 3237 happens most times first. 3237 is below 3276, that was the last low before the hh.. so a break in it, sets up 3176. below 3176, voids 3420. atm high is 339x... if the bears take 3176 area or just get close. we may bounce toward 3280/3320 ish. if we then break past (3176) we should go below 2997 (after bounce).....
one step at a time for me gman.
  • #808,066
  • Jun 15, 2013 1:11pm Jun 15, 2013 1:11pm
Previous poc's have been respected including the one we are bumping up against now. If it is retested and holds I'll close longs.....otherwise I remain bullish.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR_07.jpg Size: 177 KB
  • #808,067
  • Jun 15, 2013 2:00pm Jun 15, 2013 2:00pm
What's interesting is that according to cbot shirt positions were cut by 85% isn't that what institutional short sellers want? To clear the market if shorts?
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #808,068
  • Jun 15, 2013 2:48pm Jun 15, 2013 2:48pm
Quoting Pip Anon
What's interesting is that according to cbot shirt positions were cut by 85% isn't that what institutional short sellers want? To clear the market if shorts?
who knows.
  • #808,069
  • Jun 15, 2013 4:01pm Jun 15, 2013 4:01pm
Quoting pkimnyc
{quote} who knows.
Well know one lol, but it was just an assumption. IMO the best time for the institutions to short something would be when the sellers are cleared out and the asset is looking "bullish."

Guess we'll find out. Not sure how much higher the ECB wants it, but than again they'll never do anything about it
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #808,070
  • Jun 15, 2013 5:56pm Jun 15, 2013 5:56pm
I honestly don't think the FED will taper until at least 2015.

This is an example scenario based off purely technical (of course FED has to validate this along the way...)

We are nowhere near the FEDs unemployment target. Every time it seems like we are getting closer, we shed some jobs.

EURUSD Yearly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-YEARLY---6-15-2013.png Size: 36 KB
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #808,071
  • Jun 15, 2013 6:02pm Jun 15, 2013 6:02pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
I honestly don't think the FED will taper until at least 2015. This is an example scenario based off purely technical (of course FED has to validate this along the way...) We are nowhere near the FEDs unemployment target. Every time it seems like we are getting closer, we shed some jobs. EURUSD Yearly {image}
I agree with your point with the fed, but i never understood the practicality of monthy or yearly charts. Maybe because im more short term but in regards to your chart should i wait 6 more years to go long? Lol
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #808,072
  • Jun 15, 2013 7:56pm Jun 15, 2013 7:56pm
Quoting pkimnyc
{quote} not really interested in short side. if breaks south then i might catch few legs down, but more interested in buying at much lower price if dips. 3700 high will eventually be taken out, imo.
Euro under accumulation with Buy On Dips interests since reaching that "Count Dough, Lick Wound" threshold..

Smart Money sentiment crossing over to net bullish for the 2nd time since January's 1st attempt to breach 1.37 after climbing 10+ figures from 1.22..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Euro CFTC COT-20130611.png Size: 114 KB
  • #808,073
  • Jun 15, 2013 8:03pm Jun 15, 2013 8:03pm
Quoting cdndollar
{quote} Euro under accumulation with Buy On Dips interests since reaching that "Count Dough, Lick Wound" threshold.. Smart Money sentiment crossing over to net bullish for the 2nd time since January's 1st attempt to breach 1.37 after climbing 10+ figures from 1.22.. {image}
Awesome chart. Thank you.
  • #808,074
  • Jun 16, 2013 1:54am Jun 16, 2013 1:54am
IMO, the Dow will crush this summer.
it may be only a semi-crash, in the best case.
-> Dow down, then Euro down.

1.3350 will remain as a high for 2013 and 2014 !

i eventually enter short on Monday.
I'll shop after the drop
  • #808,075
  • Jun 16, 2013 1:56am Jun 16, 2013 1:56am
IMO, the Dow will crash this summer.
it may be only a semi-crash, in the best case.
-> Dow down, then Euro down.

1.3350 will remain as a high for 2013 and 2014 !

i eventually enter short on Monday.
I'll shop after the drop
  • #808,076
  • Jun 16, 2013 2:25am Jun 16, 2013 2:25am
Quoting Willow
IMO, the Dow will crash this summer. it may be only a semi-crash, in the best case. -> Dow down, then Euro down. 1.3350 will remain as a high for 2013 and 2014 ! i eventually enter short on Monday.
If Dow up to new high,so what about Euro?
  • #808,077
  • Jun 16, 2013 7:49am Jun 16, 2013 7:49am
Quoting gatorinla
small s on the eu also 3377.. 3/4 to 3420 is 3386. au should go 10 pips higher 96.67 min.. high atm 96.57
nice call gato, i am sorry if i have suspected in it . after all this noise in this great thread i think all junior traders should stop push there recommendations . only ask and watch the analysis of our great traders like gatorinla. all we need from these trader to give us good experience and good advices to improve our knowledge in Forex and give a life to our balance . i will be the first one to watch and ask .

thanks
  • #808,078
  • Jun 16, 2013 7:56am Jun 16, 2013 7:56am
Looking bullish on close as well as with GBP/USD although AUD faltering.
  • #808,079
  • Jun 16, 2013 8:31am Jun 16, 2013 8:31am
Any 1 see 1.403 by the end of this month?
If skills could be acquired by watching, every dog would be a butcher. Turk
  • #808,080
  • Jun 16, 2013 10:06am Jun 16, 2013 10:06am
Quoting Willow
IMO, the Dow will crash this summer. it may be only a semi-crash, in the best case. -> Dow down, then Euro down. 1.3350 will remain as a high for 2013 and 2014 ! i eventually enter short on Monday.
dow
sp500
nas
wall
etc etc

selll

eur/usd 143300 up up

http://prntscr.com/1a9fw6
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