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Lets talk USDCAD

  • #61
  • Jun 5, 2006 3:57am Jun 5, 2006 3:57am
Still in the trade with 1/3 of the original position. Will trail it till the end.

-soso
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-soso
  • #62
  • Jun 5, 2006 2:05pm Jun 5, 2006 2:05pm
Opened another short on TL bounce.

-soso
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-soso
  • #63
  • Jun 6, 2006 7:42am Jun 6, 2006 7:42am
Stopped out on last trade.
Hm, one thing I have noticed is that on many successful tl bounces the price sticks around the trendline for a while, like testing to see if it holds.
So I think a better entry would be when the price: 1) either is clearly rejected by the TL or 2) price is cosolidating on TL.

Anyway, a new short opportunity here. Price is nearing the intersection of 2 TLs.

-soso
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-soso
  • #64
  • Jun 6, 2006 2:39pm Jun 6, 2006 2:39pm
I got stopped out today on a short position on USD/CAD. I had thought the two trendlines crossing around 1.1120/40 would offer a good bounce back down, but it didn't. -25 pips on that one and now price has pulled back to the crossing area. Bummer.
Always wait for the opportune moment… just be careful not to miss it.
  • #65
  • Jun 6, 2006 2:54pm Jun 6, 2006 2:54pm
I didn't took this short (luckily). I'll wait for now, but my bias is still short.

-soso
-soso
  • #66
  • Jun 7, 2006 3:28am Jun 7, 2006 3:28am
Currently it is retesting the broken trendline. Standing aside for now, this pair is very bearish but if it continues to go up I'll follow along.

-soso
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-soso
  • #67
  • Jun 19, 2006 11:23am Jun 19, 2006 11:23am
Upper trendline touch. Wait to see what happens.
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-soso
  • #68
  • Jun 19, 2006 3:47pm Jun 19, 2006 3:47pm
I agree. This 250 pip range has been very predictable. I went short from 1.1245 and with a tight stop, your trade gets a very high risk reward ratio. Currently trading below 1.12, it's already a profitable proposition. However, the old trendline that comes in around 1.12 might offer support.
Always wait for the opportune moment… just be careful not to miss it.
  • #69
  • Jun 19, 2006 3:55pm Jun 19, 2006 3:55pm
Yup, I'm in on this one. Looks like some pretty good support around the 1.1130 area.
JOHN 3:16
  • #70
  • Jun 19, 2006 4:06pm Jun 19, 2006 4:06pm
Quoting renasdad
Yup, I'm in on this one. Looks like some pretty good support around the 1.1130 area.
You see it go down before CPI ?

Im in short since 1,1230, you suggest to stay in ?
  • #71
  • Jun 19, 2006 4:12pm Jun 19, 2006 4:12pm
Well, noone can say for sure. It did consolidate 1.11256 and 1.1215. Then is did break below that. I am experimenting with 480 EMA and on a 4 hr chart, it touched it and bounced off. I have another indicator I am using that is giving a sell signal.
JOHN 3:16
  • #72
  • Jun 19, 2006 4:35pm Jun 19, 2006 4:35pm
Quoting renasdad
Well, noone can say for sure. It did consolidate 1.11256 and 1.1215. Then is did break below that. I am experimenting with 480 EMA and on a 4 hr chart, it touched it and bounced off. I have another indicator I am using that is giving a sell signal.

Thanks. well, I stay short, I put the stop even, so im ok.
480 EMA ?
  • #73
  • Jun 19, 2006 4:40pm Jun 19, 2006 4:40pm
I have been playing with the 480 on 1 hr charts. I think my calculations are right. 24 hrs * 5 days * 4 weeks. That equals to 480 bars in a month. Price does some funky stuff around that area. I have been playing with open/close/high/low and mixing it up.
JOHN 3:16
  • #74
  • Jun 19, 2006 4:46pm Jun 19, 2006 4:46pm
Quoting renasdad
I have been playing with the 480 on 1 hr charts. I think my calculations are right. 24 hrs * 5 days * 4 weeks. That equals to 480 bars in a month. Price does some funky stuff around that area. I have been playing with open/close/high/low and mixing it up.
This sounds interesting. i will look it. thanks for hint
Let see tomorrow what happens with CAD.
My only concern is that usd is bullish with other pairs, so I dont know how much with cad can be bearish, But is also true that today the usd bullish didint affect cad.

Bye )
  • #75
  • Jun 19, 2006 5:22pm Jun 19, 2006 5:22pm
Very true . It's screaming short! Dunno what confirmation I was looking for, thanks.

Quoting Isotonic
soso,

why not trade the range? i see that resistance is one month old with 3 touches so it's looking pretty good.

place your stop at the first point from where you drew resistance, and you already know where your take profit is.
-soso
  • #76
  • Jun 19, 2006 5:23pm Jun 19, 2006 5:23pm
What I have learned is that USDCAD has a life of its own appart of how majors are affected by USD. I wouldn't be worried about this.

Quoting trucco
My only concern is that usd is bullish with other pairs, so I dont know how much with cad can be bearish, But is also true that today the usd bullish didint affect cad.
-soso
  • #77
  • Jun 19, 2006 9:27pm Jun 19, 2006 9:27pm
I still think we are going back down.
JOHN 3:16
  • #78
  • Jun 20, 2006 12:17am Jun 20, 2006 12:17am
I left my short at 1.1205. Had a 4 hour pin bar closing with it's tail through the TL so to my that indicated a bounce. It might consolidate ahead of the US data later today. I am looking for a break below 1.1190 or a break above 1.1250 obviously. If it bounces at 1.1200 where the two trendlines meet, I plan to long the pair.
Always wait for the opportune moment… just be careful not to miss it.
  • #79
  • Jun 20, 2006 1:01am Jun 20, 2006 1:01am
Just went long from 1.1195. I believe the trendlines will hold support ahead of the data. I might be wrong but with a tight stop at 1.1180, and a potential rise back to the 1.1250 area, the trade has a good r/r ratio.
Always wait for the opportune moment… just be careful not to miss it.
  • #80
  • Jun 20, 2006 2:11am Jun 20, 2006 2:11am
lol, reversed since TL's didn't hold. 1.1176 is first pivot target
Always wait for the opportune moment… just be careful not to miss it.
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