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  • #805,981
  • Jun 7, 2013 4:43am Jun 7, 2013 4:43am
Quoting broketrader
{quote} Forecast is 167K here on FF, 165K in the link I gave, not 170K And??? As written in the article, 10 estimates in bloomberg lowered their estimation to an average of 150K For me it means that even if we have a number below public forecast but greater than those bloomberg estimates we will have a jump in the dollar. So for me and as for the article, only a number below 150K could send the € higher, anything else will be bearish. The question that remains is, is this already priced, given the run-up we had yesterday ?
Still below estimates. Here's your original statement I responded to: " Yes, it seems that everyone is anticipating a great NFP number but if it's not so great we could see a reverse movement sending the euro to the sky"

Does lowering your estimates sound like they are anticipating a great NFP number?Hmm? You know why they lower it? Because they know it will be crap, so when it beats the revised number we can all rejoice in the slow, but moderate growing economy we've become accustom to
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #805,982
  • Jun 7, 2013 4:47am Jun 7, 2013 4:47am
Quoting broketrader
{quote} Forecast is 167K here on FF, 165K in the link I gave, not 170K And??? As written in the article, 10 estimates in bloomberg lowered their estimation to an average of 150K For me it means that even if we have a number below public forecast but greater than those bloomberg estimates we will have a jump in the dollar. So for me and as for the article, only a number below 150K could send the € higher, anything else will be bearish. The question that remains is, is this already priced, given the run-up we had yesterday ?
good luck trying to pre empt nfp data

NFP can be a beats, hasnt been for a long time, but dosnt mean she wont tonight

Best advice is to keep your money safe and stay on sidelines, can be traded, but all the years I been trading I only ever seen a handful

Bull and bear can get slaughtered in a blink, stops jumped and accounts smashed, most of them will dissappear for awhile to lick their wounds and egos, they few who get it right / fluked will be all over the forum how clever they are, this time
NFP is when the big boy with deep pockets sweep the floors with all the clever traders with their pocket change, if google the turn over for nfp, and accept zero sum game, every $ win = every $ plus spread, plus slip lose in very very short time
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #805,983
  • Jun 7, 2013 4:48am Jun 7, 2013 4:48am
Love this PA, great for scalpers like me
  • #805,984
  • Jun 7, 2013 4:50am Jun 7, 2013 4:50am
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} good luck trying to pre empt nfp data NFP can be a beats, hasnt been for a long time, but dosnt mean she wont tonight Best advice is to keep your money safe and stay on sidelines, can be traded, but all the years I been trading I only ever seen a handful Bull and bear can get slaughtered in a blink, stops jumped and accounts smashed, most of them will dissappear for awhile to lick their wounds and egos, they few who get it right / fluked will be all over the forum how clever they are, this time NFP is when the big boy with deep pockets sweep...
What was the German data where the euro spiked over a 100 pips in 5 mins only to retrace that and an additional 80 or so? Happened maybe a month or so ago. Shoot.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #805,985
  • Jun 7, 2013 4:52am Jun 7, 2013 4:52am
Quoting Pip Anon
Does lowering your estimates sound like they are anticipating a great NFP number?Hmm?
I didn't lower anything and they were not my estimates.

Quoting Pip Anon
You know why they lower it? Because they know it will be crap
You could be right, but what if the NFP is not so crap ? They could say, well, we were wrong, the economy is really doing well. but it could also looks like a subtle manipulation from their part.

If they lower the estimates there are more chances for the released number to be greater thus the actual anticipation sending the euro lower, this is what I was meaning.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #805,986
  • Jun 7, 2013 4:57am Jun 7, 2013 4:57am
real or fake ?
  • #805,987
  • Jun 7, 2013 4:59am Jun 7, 2013 4:59am
Quoting broketrader
{quote} I didn't lower anything and they were not my estimates. {quote} You could be right, but what if the NFP is not so crap ? They could say, well, we were wrong, the economy is really doing well. but it could also looks like a subtle manipulation from their part. If they lower the estimates there are more chances for the released number to be greater thus the actual anticipation sending the euro lower, this is what I was meaning.
I never said they were your estimates. You wrote a better NFP was expected. I said if that was the case they did the analysts revise numbers. It will spike in a given direction once released. If anyone pays attention, that doesn't last long most cases.

The dollar is heading lower again. It could be priming for an up move. Us, at this level, do not know.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #805,988
  • Jun 7, 2013 4:59am Jun 7, 2013 4:59am
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} good luck trying to pre empt nfp data NFP can be a beats, hasnt been for a long time, but dosnt mean she wont tonight Best advice is to keep your money safe and stay on sidelines, can be traded, but all the years I been trading I only ever seen a handful Bull and bear can get slaughtered in a blink, stops jumped and accounts smashed, most of them will dissappear for awhile to lick their wounds and egos, they few who get it right / fluked will be all over the forum how clever they are, this time NFP is when the big boy with deep pockets sweep...
You are right Kiwi, my try to pre emp is just for fun.

I'm currently long and cannot go out otherwise i break my rules and ruin my plan. It doesn't matter if I get smashed a bit, this will anyway be a good test for my EA.

Certainly my signature which shows 4% will show 2.5% or less in a couple of hours but it's not a problem.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #805,989
  • Jun 7, 2013 5:01am Jun 7, 2013 5:01am
in two 5m bar she covered the length of 4h bar
  • #805,990
  • Jun 7, 2013 5:05am Jun 7, 2013 5:05am
Quoting Kingscalp
in two 5m bar she covered the length of 4h bar
and she gave back half in the last bar,18 pips
  • #805,991
  • Jun 7, 2013 5:06am Jun 7, 2013 5:06am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} What was the German data where the euro spiked over a 100 pips in 5 mins only to retrace that and an additional 80 or so? Happened maybe a month or so ago. Shoot.
yep there been a few 100 pippers for various data releases, but since all the interventions, (big ones) nfp been pretty tame, watched heaps of NFP before having try trade her, 1st time couldnt insert a surgical needle in anus and nearly vomitted, and have stayed aside ever since, I have joined various live trading rooms over the years, cool calm and methodical trading, got all ready and just before release I chicken out,
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #805,992
  • Jun 7, 2013 5:07am Jun 7, 2013 5:07am
It should be shooting up with data like that from Germany, but it's not. A sign of things to come in about 2 hours?
You reap what you sow.
  • #805,993
  • Jun 7, 2013 5:08am Jun 7, 2013 5:08am
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} yep there been a few 100 pippers for various data releases, but since all the interventions, (big ones) nfp been pretty tame, watched heaps of NFP before having try trade her, 1st time couldnt insert a surgical needle in anus and nearly vomitted, and have stayed aside ever since, I have joined various live trading rooms over the years, cool calm and methodical trading, got all ready and just before release I chicken out,



Honesty is such a great prerogative for this job.
  • #805,994
  • Jun 7, 2013 5:09am Jun 7, 2013 5:09am
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} yep there been a few 100 pippers for various data releases, but since all the interventions, (big ones) nfp been pretty tame, watched heaps of NFP before having try trade her, 1st time couldnt insert a surgical needle in anus and nearly vomitted, and have stayed aside ever since, I have joined various live trading rooms over the years, cool calm and methodical trading, got all ready and just before release I chicken out,
Haha. I traded it once with a buy limit set above. It blasted 120 pips north and collected 100 in about 3 mins. Just speculation of course, but I prefer not to trade news because its very subjective. Depending on the momentum I may go in a 5M chart and fade the exhaustion for some pips.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #805,995
  • Jun 7, 2013 5:12am Jun 7, 2013 5:12am
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} good luck trying to pre empt nfp data NFP can be a beats, hasnt been for a long time, but dosnt mean she wont tonight Best advice is to keep your money safe and stay on sidelines, can be traded, but all the years I been trading I only ever seen a handful Bull and bear can get slaughtered in a blink, stops jumped and accounts smashed, most of them will dissappear for awhile to lick their wounds and egos, they few who get it right / fluked will be all over the forum how clever they are, this time NFP is when the big boy with deep pockets sweep...
I'm gonna take my chance with EA shorts currently 27 pips in green and stops @ 1.4020
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #805,996
  • Jun 7, 2013 5:12am Jun 7, 2013 5:12am
Quoting broketrader
{quote} You are right Kiwi, my try to pre emp is just for fun. I'm currently long and cannot go out otherwise i break my rules and ruin my plan. It doesn't matter if I get smashed a bit, this will anyway be a good test for my EA. Certainly my signature which shows 4% will show 2.5% or less in a couple of hours but it's not a problem.
ok but becareful what say on public forum

Im not sure if up or down for her, euro is getting very untrustworthy, presently I am au and geppy, just feels bit safer, but I will be watching nfp with my pop corn
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #805,997
  • Jun 7, 2013 5:13am Jun 7, 2013 5:13am
Which first 3268 or 3224?
  • #805,998
  • Jun 7, 2013 5:18am Jun 7, 2013 5:18am
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} ok but becareful what say on public forum Im not sure if up or down for her, euro is getting very untrustworthy, presently I am au and geppy, just feels bit safer, but I will be watching nfp with my pop corn
Decent night for me with geppy and dollar yen. 135 pips between the two. Didn't master trade it or anything, but yen gives consistent pips all day long
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #805,999
  • Jun 7, 2013 5:26am Jun 7, 2013 5:26am
Quoting broketrader
{quote} You are naive if you think that some bankers can corner a pair or draw (or not) a pattern in a market of trillions of dollars involving millions of people around the world and thousands of banks that are concurrent to each other...
These are words of wisdom, IMO.
  • #806,000
  • Jun 7, 2013 5:27am Jun 7, 2013 5:27am
With support and resistant levels everywhere, how do you know which ones are important and which ones aren't?
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