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  • #58,681
  • Jun 5, 2013 1:18am Jun 5, 2013 1:18am
Well one question I never get out of my mind! "Why long when it's a down trend??" Why not to short at tops? Longing isn't risking?
  • #58,682
  • Jun 5, 2013 1:21am Jun 5, 2013 1:21am
Quoting namitak007
Well one question I never get out of my mind! "Why long when it's a down trend??" Why not to short at tops? Longing isn't risking?
you are absolutely correct, i think i may have jumped the gun on getting in on a long here... tired to catch the falling knife and now im bleeding... still i think its possible that we are at a turning point, lets see how the day shapes up
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #58,683
  • Jun 5, 2013 1:26am Jun 5, 2013 1:26am
Looks like we are heading to .94
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #58,684
  • Jun 5, 2013 1:30am Jun 5, 2013 1:30am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} you are absolutely correct, i think i may have jumped the gun on getting in on a long here... tired to catch the falling knife and now im bleeding... still i think its possible that we are at a turning point, lets see how the day shapes up
Well Yes! I too expect parity at least but still it has some room to fall towards .93x
It's clear that big boys are not satisfied yet as even holding rate cut didn't impressed them. And if USD continues manipulation this month, trust me AU will make many of Long traders to cry. currently .958x is support level then direct @.952 and then .946x
So shorting is the only good option for now. It's been almost 1st week of june and still no sign of trend reversal. So Longing here is nothing but risking. I will prefer longing only if it crosses .985
We may see .97x soon but again that will be a great opportunity for shorting! IMO
  • #58,685
  • Jun 5, 2013 1:33am Jun 5, 2013 1:33am
Quoting namitak007
{quote} Well Yes! I too expect parity at least but still it has some room to fall towards .93x It's clear that big boys are not satisfied yet as even holding rate cut didn't impressed them. And if USD continues manipulation this month, trust me AU will make many of Long traders to cry. currently .958x is support level then direct @.952 and then .946x So shorting is the only good option for now. It's been almost 1st week of june and still no sign of trend reversal. So Longing here is nothing but risking. I will prefer longing...
I posted this response to someone who asked the same question in the EUR thread:

The rates were expected to be on hold. There was hardly any chance of a rate cute. The rate hold was already priced in.


You need to read the RBA statement released at the same time. It is more important..


In this case, they hinted at further rate cuts, and also referred the lack of improvements in the Australian and Chinese economies in the future.


Hence, AUD down

  • #58,686
  • Jun 5, 2013 1:37am Jun 5, 2013 1:37am
Quoting diggo
{quote} I posted this response to someone who asked the same question in the EUR thread: The rates were expected to be on hold. There was hardly any chance of a rate cute. The rate hold was already priced in. You need to read the RBA statement released at the same time. It is more important.. In this case, they hinted at further rate cuts, and also referred the lack of improvements in the Australian and Chinese economies in the future. Hence, AUD down
and again they blamed USD for rate cut. So if USD keeps manipulating yes 2.50% is soon
Well I am no way arguing you. What I meant to say, the big boys were expecting "hold" but, lower rate cut will impress more investment but that doesn't happened so I am doubtful if AU climb highs. That's what I wanted to say.
  • #58,687
  • Jun 5, 2013 1:37am Jun 5, 2013 1:37am
Cheap seats are available for those who want to catch the Long train.

Best r/r is available just above 9572, with tight stops just below

Bulls have a min. target at 1.0055

After 1.0055+ is satisfied, big bears want 0.86x minimum.
  • #58,688
  • Jun 5, 2013 1:39am Jun 5, 2013 1:39am
Quoting bogus
Looks like we are heading to .94
I forgot which way I got .94 but I got there as well!
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #58,689
  • Edited 1:50am Jun 5, 2013 1:39am | Edited 1:50am
Quoting namitak007
Well one question I never get out of my mind! "Why long when it's a down trend??" Why not to short at tops? Longing isn't risking?
I personally ain't going to do a thing till the USD numbers are out and we have a clearer picture of what the Fed may do with its bond buying program which the rumor of stopping is the bases for the dollar strength at the moment. The only problem is the US has posted a mixed bag of numbers lately and a couple more and we could see the dollar plummet right back where it was.
  • #58,690
  • Jun 5, 2013 1:41am Jun 5, 2013 1:41am
Quoting namitak007
{quote} and again they blamed USD for rate cut. So if USD keeps manipulating yes 2.50% is soon Well I am no way arguing you. What I meant to say, the big boys were expecting "hold" but, lower rate cut will impress more investment but that doesn't happened so I am doubtful if AU climb highs. That's what I wanted to say.
I should make it clear, I am the biggest of bears on AUD.

However, we have a normal bounce area at 1.0055. This is a magnet, and will continue to pull the AUD towards it UNLESS we break major support levels.
  • #58,691
  • Jun 5, 2013 1:50am Jun 5, 2013 1:50am
Quoting namitak007
Well one question I never get out of my mind! "Why long when it's a down trend??" Why not to short at tops? Longing isn't risking?

Well, I do think some traders are contrarian. Afterall, look at the past history, May has been a BEARS month for the past 4 years, followed by BULL month in June. And people do looks these patterns closely as well. Of course, I'm not that risk taker unless we see the AUDUSD hitting some key support before i will decide to LONG it, with some SL in case of AUDUSD circuit break below support.
Knowledge is powerful tool that we can ever have.
  • #58,692
  • Jun 5, 2013 1:50am Jun 5, 2013 1:50am
.9585

Consolidation in a downtrend -
.95 10-30 key support

Short punters will be buying well ahead of here

Hot knife through butter on .9500 breach to .9430
  • #58,693
  • Jun 5, 2013 1:56am Jun 5, 2013 1:56am
Quoting diggo
{quote} I posted this response to someone who asked the same question in the EUR thread: The rates were expected to be on hold. There was hardly any chance of a rate cute. The rate hold was already priced in. You need to read the RBA statement released at the same time. It is more important.. In this case, they hinted at further rate cuts, and also referred the lack of improvements in the Australian and Chinese economies in the future. Hence, AUD down
Another rate cut is a 1-in-3 chance next month.
  • #58,694
  • Jun 5, 2013 1:57am Jun 5, 2013 1:57am
Quoting rikusks
{quote} Well, I do think some traders are contrarian. Afterall, look at the past history, May has been a BEARS month for the past 4 years, followed by BULL month in June. And people do looks these patterns closely as well. Of course, I'm not that risk taker unless we see the AUDUSD hitting some key support before i will decide to LONG it, with some SL in case of AUDUSD circuit break below support.
well yes. I too heard many people relating "months" with market and I too for some extent believe in it. But I mostly trust on my charts. If US data comes positive today then we can see .952 support level broken and eventually we can touch .93x which is "historically" last support level since last couple of years!
  • #58,695
  • Jun 5, 2013 1:58am Jun 5, 2013 1:58am
Quoting diggo
{quote} Another rate cut is a 1-in-3 chance next month.

yup! Mid june will confirm.
  • #58,696
  • Jun 5, 2013 1:59am Jun 5, 2013 1:59am
Quoting GnarlyPips
{quote} I forgot which way I got .94 but I got there as well!

Rough and ready.
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FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #58,697
  • Jun 5, 2013 2:08am Jun 5, 2013 2:08am
There are major levels coming up on longer terms charts including daily. I would be more inclined to wait to confirm level of support (if any) and ensure fundamentals are supporting the trade. This is a possible time to get do a lot of trading that is unproductive. I am short on the market currently, but well in the money, but have not added to any positions or traded long yet - so standing back and evaluating.
  • #58,698
  • Jun 5, 2013 2:09am Jun 5, 2013 2:09am
So how's everyone's Aussie longs?
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #58,699
  • Jun 5, 2013 2:11am Jun 5, 2013 2:11am
Quoting Pip Anon
So how's everyone's Aussie longs?

taking a bloodbath I guess!
  • #58,700
  • Jun 5, 2013 2:11am Jun 5, 2013 2:11am
WOW look at going south now .9560 I guess you Aud short guys are right!!! Congrats.
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