Attachments: AUD/USD

AUD/USD

#58,681
Jun 4, 2013 11:18pm Jun 4, 2013 11:18pm

namitak007
| Joined Apr 2013 | Status: SemiPro Trader with good MM | 893 Posts

Well one question I never get out of my mind! "Why long when it's a down trend??" Why not to short at tops? Longing isn't risking?

#58,682
Jun 4, 2013 11:21pm Jun 4, 2013 11:21pm

theDHT
Joined May 2013 | Status: formulating infinity | 2,125 Posts

Quoting namitak007

Disliked

Well one question I never get out of my mind! "Why long when it's a down trend??" Why not to short at tops? Longing isn't risking?

Ignored

you are absolutely correct, i think i may have jumped the gun on getting in on a long here... tired to catch the falling knife and now im bleeding... still i think its possible that we are at a turning point, lets see how the day shapes up

90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...

#58,683
Jun 4, 2013 11:26pm Jun 4, 2013 11:26pm

bogus
Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Symbol | 2,788 Posts

Looks like we are heading to .94

FF journal: Peaks and Troffs

#58,684
Jun 4, 2013 11:30pm Jun 4, 2013 11:30pm

namitak007
| Joined Apr 2013 | Status: SemiPro Trader with good MM | 893 Posts

Quoting theDHT

Disliked

{quote} you are absolutely correct, i think i may have jumped the gun on getting in on a long here... tired to catch the falling knife and now im bleeding... still i think its possible that we are at a turning point, lets see how the day shapes up

Ignored

Well Yes! I too expect parity at least but still it has some room to fall towards .93x
It's clear that big boys are not satisfied yet as even holding rate cut didn't impressed them. And if USD continues manipulation this month, trust me AU will make many of Long traders to cry. currently .958x is support level then direct @.952 and then .946x
So shorting is the only good option for now. It's been almost 1st week of june and still no sign of trend reversal. So Longing here is nothing but risking. I will prefer longing only if it crosses .985
We may see .97x soon but again that will be a great opportunity for shorting! IMO

#58,685
Jun 4, 2013 11:33pm Jun 4, 2013 11:33pm

diggo
| Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Trader | 593 Posts

Quoting namitak007

Disliked

{quote} Well Yes! I too expect parity at least but still it has some room to fall towards .93x It's clear that big boys are not satisfied yet as even holding rate cut didn't impressed them. And if USD continues manipulation this month, trust me AU will make many of Long traders to cry. currently .958x is support level then direct @.952 and then .946x So shorting is the only good option for now. It's been almost 1st week of june and still no sign of trend reversal. So Longing here is nothing but risking. I will prefer longing...

Ignored

I posted this response to someone who asked the same question in the EUR thread:

The rates were expected to be on hold. There was hardly any chance of a rate cute. The rate hold was already priced in.

You need to read the RBA statement released at the same time. It is more important..

In this case, they hinted at further rate cuts, and also referred the lack of improvements in the Australian and Chinese economies in the future.

Hence, AUD down

#58,686
Jun 4, 2013 11:37pm Jun 4, 2013 11:37pm

namitak007
| Joined Apr 2013 | Status: SemiPro Trader with good MM | 893 Posts

Quoting diggo

Disliked

{quote} I posted this response to someone who asked the same question in the EUR thread: The rates were expected to be on hold. There was hardly any chance of a rate cute. The rate hold was already priced in. You need to read the RBA statement released at the same time. It is more important.. In this case, they hinted at further rate cuts, and also referred the lack of improvements in the Australian and Chinese economies in the future. Hence, AUD down

Ignored

and again they blamed USD for rate cut. So if USD keeps manipulating yes 2.50% is soon
Well I am no way arguing you. What I meant to say, the big boys were expecting "hold" but, lower rate cut will impress more investment but that doesn't happened so I am doubtful if AU climb highs. That's what I wanted to say.

#58,687
Jun 4, 2013 11:37pm Jun 4, 2013 11:37pm

diggo
| Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Trader | 593 Posts

Cheap seats are available for those who want to catch the Long train.

Best r/r is available just above 9572, with tight stops just below

Bulls have a min. target at 1.0055

After 1.0055+ is satisfied, big bears want 0.86x minimum.

#58,688
Jun 4, 2013 11:39pm Jun 4, 2013 11:39pm

GnarlyPips
| Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Toker | 918 Posts

Quoting bogus

Disliked

Looks like we are heading to .94

Ignored

I forgot which way I got .94 but I got there as well!

Play the players, not the cards.

#58,689
Edited 11:50pm Jun 4, 2013 11:39pm | Edited 11:50pm

irongoose
| Joined May 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,210 Posts

Quoting namitak007

Disliked

Well one question I never get out of my mind! "Why long when it's a down trend??" Why not to short at tops? Longing isn't risking?

Ignored

I personally ain't going to do a thing till the USD numbers are out and we have a clearer picture of what the Fed may do with its bond buying program which the rumor of stopping is the bases for the dollar strength at the moment. The only problem is the US has posted a mixed bag of numbers lately and a couple more and we could see the dollar plummet right back where it was.

#58,690
Jun 4, 2013 11:41pm Jun 4, 2013 11:41pm

diggo
| Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Trader | 593 Posts

Quoting namitak007

Disliked

{quote} and again they blamed USD for rate cut. So if USD keeps manipulating yes 2.50% is soon Well I am no way arguing you. What I meant to say, the big boys were expecting "hold" but, lower rate cut will impress more investment but that doesn't happened so I am doubtful if AU climb highs. That's what I wanted to say.

Ignored

I should make it clear, I am the biggest of bears on AUD.

However, we have a normal bounce area at 1.0055. This is a magnet, and will continue to pull the AUD towards it UNLESS we break major support levels.

#58,691
Jun 4, 2013 11:50pm Jun 4, 2013 11:50pm

rikusks
| Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 70 Posts

Quoting namitak007

Disliked

Well one question I never get out of my mind! "Why long when it's a down trend??" Why not to short at tops? Longing isn't risking?

Ignored

Well, I do think some traders are contrarian. Afterall, look at the past history, May has been a BEARS month for the past 4 years, followed by BULL month in June. And people do looks these patterns closely as well. Of course, I'm not that risk taker unless we see the AUDUSD hitting some key support before i will decide to LONG it, with some SL in case of AUDUSD circuit break below support.

Knowledge is powerful tool that we can ever have.

#58,692
Jun 4, 2013 11:50pm Jun 4, 2013 11:50pm

lasty
Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Trader | 3,386 Posts

.9585

Consolidation in a downtrend -
.95 10-30 key support

Short punters will be buying well ahead of here

Hot knife through butter on .9500 breach to .9430

#58,693
Jun 4, 2013 11:56pm Jun 4, 2013 11:56pm

diggo
| Joined Jun 2011 | Status: Trader | 593 Posts

Quoting diggo

Disliked

{quote} I posted this response to someone who asked the same question in the EUR thread: The rates were expected to be on hold. There was hardly any chance of a rate cute. The rate hold was already priced in. You need to read the RBA statement released at the same time. It is more important.. In this case, they hinted at further rate cuts, and also referred the lack of improvements in the Australian and Chinese economies in the future. Hence, AUD down

Ignored

Another rate cut is a 1-in-3 chance next month.

#58,694
Jun 4, 2013 11:57pm Jun 4, 2013 11:57pm

namitak007
| Joined Apr 2013 | Status: SemiPro Trader with good MM | 893 Posts

Quoting rikusks

Disliked

{quote} Well, I do think some traders are contrarian. Afterall, look at the past history, May has been a BEARS month for the past 4 years, followed by BULL month in June. And people do looks these patterns closely as well. Of course, I'm not that risk taker unless we see the AUDUSD hitting some key support before i will decide to LONG it, with some SL in case of AUDUSD circuit break below support.

Ignored

well yes. I too heard many people relating "months" with market and I too for some extent believe in it. But I mostly trust on my charts. If US data comes positive today then we can see .952 support level broken and eventually we can touch .93x which is "historically" last support level since last couple of years!

#58,695
Jun 4, 2013 11:58pm Jun 4, 2013 11:58pm

namitak007
| Joined Apr 2013 | Status: SemiPro Trader with good MM | 893 Posts

Quoting diggo

Disliked

{quote} Another rate cut is a 1-in-3 chance next month.

Ignored

yup! Mid june will confirm.

#58,696
Jun 4, 2013 11:59pm Jun 4, 2013 11:59pm

bogus
Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Symbol | 2,788 Posts

Quoting GnarlyPips

Disliked

{quote} I forgot which way I got .94 but I got there as well!

Ignored

Rough and ready.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: au5.jpg
Size: 74 KB

FF journal: Peaks and Troffs

#58,697
Jun 5, 2013 12:08am Jun 5, 2013 12:08am

adamcox
| Joined May 2013 | Status: Trader | 94 Posts

There are major levels coming up on longer terms charts including daily. I would be more inclined to wait to confirm level of support (if any) and ensure fundamentals are supporting the trade. This is a possible time to get do a lot of trading that is unproductive. I am short on the market currently, but well in the money, but have not added to any positions or traded long yet - so standing back and evaluating.

#58,698
Jun 5, 2013 12:09am Jun 5, 2013 12:09am