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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #34,341
  • Jun 3, 2013 11:38pm Jun 3, 2013 11:38pm
I took long at 99.75 and now set stop loss obove break even point.... so should I hold it or close that now? I think it will go above 103 in coming days.... what do you think guys? Hasn't Japan reach it's target of inflation yet?
  • #34,342
  • Jun 3, 2013 11:40pm Jun 3, 2013 11:40pm
Here are also the charts so you guys can have a better comprehension, Ichimoku becomes a beast on Daily and for the ones who are using this indicator know that KijunSen is a super price magnet and on the 2nd chart you can see that KijunSen is now around about 101.135 .
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY 4.06.2013.jpg Size: 234 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2nd USDJPY 4.06.2013.jpg Size: 312 KB
  • #34,343
  • Jun 3, 2013 11:40pm Jun 3, 2013 11:40pm
Quoting iahmedz
I took long at 99.75 and now set stop loss obove break even point.... so should I hold it or close that now? I think it will go above 103 in coming days.... what do you think guys? Hasn't Japan reach it's target of inflation yet?
there are two camps here... some of us think that this pair is headed lower, others think its headed higher... and a lively debate is on... if you track the posts you will see the various points of view

do your own homework and make your own decisions! dont blame others for your failures, and dont give credit to others when you win... its all you
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #34,344
  • Jun 3, 2013 11:41pm Jun 3, 2013 11:41pm
Gidday

Man just shows you how this can turn on a dime
you guys talking 104 now
or a dump before we crawl back up:nerd:
  • #34,345
  • Jun 3, 2013 11:51pm Jun 3, 2013 11:51pm
Quoting iahmedz
I took long at 99.75 and now set stop loss obove break even point.... so should I hold it or close that now? I think it will go above 103 in coming days.... what do you think guys? Hasn't Japan reach it's target of inflation yet?
Sir.... Japan has a looooong way to go until they will reach the 2% inflation target, they will still have to drop more trillions and trillions of YEN's in the next 1-2 years to get there.
Now for mister DHT, my fundamentals relay on those facts, because Abe has pounding his chest for the last quarter regarding his ambitious plan and also he changed Shirakawa with Kuroda because they were not sharing the same aggressive mentalities and economical-political ideas. I also have to speak about Kuroda's first speech, with the risk of repeating myself, who also confirmed Abe's plan and more than that he said that BOJ will double if not triple their QE program.
To answer also a bit to PK regarding the US 10year Bond yields / USDJPY correlation :

http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/an...er/2013/04/18/
  • #34,346
  • Jun 3, 2013 11:57pm Jun 3, 2013 11:57pm
Quoting Dano12
99 74 - 80 {image}
next 100 28 perfect
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ujjek.PNG Size: 49 KB
  • #34,347
  • Jun 4, 2013 12:03am Jun 4, 2013 12:03am
Quoting MisterSpread
{quote} Sir.... Japan has a looooong way to go until they will reach the 2% inflation target, they will still have to drop more trillions and trillions of YEN's in the next 1-2 years to get there. Now for mister DHT, my fundamentals relay on those facts, because Abe has pounding his chest for the last quarter regarding his ambitious plan and also he changed Shirakawa with Kuroda because they were not sharing the same aggressive mentalities and economical-political ideas. I also have to speak about Kuroda's first speech, with the risk of repeating...
I dont trade "fundamentals", I trade price action, and what I am seeing are bearish divergences, and failures at key levels to support a bullish scenario... but that may change so I remain flexible in my views
I already agreed with you a few posts ago that later this year we will probably head up to the levels that you are looking for (106-110)
BUT, I don't think thats going to happen this month...
Also, due to the difference in our holding durations (I generally hold positions for 5+ trading days), I think its possible for us both to be correct, but chances are you will be screaming for more shorts, just as I am turning to a bullish bias...
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #34,348
  • Jun 4, 2013 12:05am Jun 4, 2013 12:05am
Still holding on my long of 98.90...
  • #34,349
  • Jun 4, 2013 12:10am Jun 4, 2013 12:10am
Quoting multi888
{quote} Same here...very funny move today...dollar move up, t goes down, Eur move up it also goes down.
its the crosses... ha.
closed out a few euro longs.

hedging out with a eurjpy short
  • #34,350
  • Jun 4, 2013 12:11am Jun 4, 2013 12:11am
Quoting multi888
Still holding on my long of 98.90...
Take the pips my friend don't let them rot it's a nice profit since that level. In my opinion is better to have a $2.000 from 20 trades than from 2 lucky rides . For the traders who are trading intraday, the idea is to also watch the price action of NIKKEY because at this level ( 13.615 ) has a huge resistance, if it breaks and confirms it we have a nice ride until 13.850 ( that will also push USDJPY around 101.200 ) if not NIKKEY will head back to 13.469 and pressure USDJPY to the 99 levels.

Play your cards safe and watch those levels carefully and also watch the market !

Cheers,
VladG
  • #34,351
  • Jun 4, 2013 12:32am Jun 4, 2013 12:32am
Quoting MisterSpread
{quote} Take the pips my friend don't let them rot it's a nice profit since that level. In my opinion is better to have a $2.000 from 20 trades than from 2 lucky rides . For the traders who are trading intraday, the idea is to also watch the price action of NIKKEY because at this level ( 13.615 ) has a huge resistance, if it breaks and confirms it we have a nice ride until 13.850 ( that will also push USDJPY around 101.200 ) if not NIKKEY will head back to 13.469 and pressure USDJPY to the 99 levels. Play your cards safe and watch those levels...

Ok, thanks for your advise.
  • #34,352
  • Edited 10:00pm Jun 4, 2013 12:37am | Edited 10:00pm
took many pending shorts from 100.40
1st target (30% of orders) 99.80
  • #34,353
  • Jun 4, 2013 12:38am Jun 4, 2013 12:38am
Quoting MisterSpread
....if it breaks and confirms it we have a nice ride until 13.850 ( that will also push USDJPY around 101.200 ) if not NIKKEY will head back to 13.469 and pressure USDJPY to the 99 levels. ...
Hi Vlad

I want to ask you something please. Why does Nikkei down = UJ down. I would have thought that Nikkei down releases lots of Yen into the market and would cause UJ to go up...?
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #34,354
  • Jun 4, 2013 12:54am Jun 4, 2013 12:54am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} Hi Vlad I want to ask you something please. Why does Nikkei down = UJ down. I would have thought that Nikkei down releases lots of Yen into the market and would cause UJ to go up...?

japan pumps QE...QE brings stocks up...QE devalue currency
  • #34,355
  • Edited 1:14am Jun 4, 2013 1:00am | Edited 1:14am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} Hi Vlad I want to ask you something please. Why does Nikkei down = UJ down. I would have thought that Nikkei down releases lots of Yen into the market and would cause UJ to go up...?
Hello Exodus, to tell you the truth I don't know exactly why this correlation works like this but I just saw the almost similar patterns 6 months ago and since than I tried to find information about it. What I know is exact the opposite of what you said, Japanese stock market players buy Equities / shares of Nikkei listed companies and thus they release YEN's in the market and that pushes the YEN down and USDJPY up.
Please don't take the explanation above rock solid, is only my opinion but for me worked until now so I'm going to used also from now on . Also for this correlation I found this : http://www.forex.com/metatrader/post...7-2ee29261d638.

Cheers,
VladG

P.S: Nikkei looks good for the bulls on daily + weekly on Ichimoku so also USDJPY should follow !
  • #34,356
  • Jun 4, 2013 1:10am Jun 4, 2013 1:10am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} I dont trade "fundamentals", I trade price action, and what I am seeing are bearish divergences, and failures at key levels to support a bullish scenario... but that may change so I remain flexible in my views I already agreed with you a few posts ago that later this year we will probably head up to the levels that you are looking for (106-110) BUT, I don't think thats going to happen this month... Also, due to the difference in our holding durations (I generally hold positions for 5+ trading days), I think its possible for us both to...

Please take care also of the fundamentals , because you only trade USDJPY on charts you can easily be caught offgard. A complete trader uses charts + fundamentals analysis and of course as much info as he can gather.
Let us take a trading case a few months back on USDJPY: all my charts were showing a powerful bullish move on USDJPY I opened 2-3 trades on long and after 10-15 minutes the news about Berlusconi came out and destroyed the EURJPY + other JPY crosses, what would have had happened if would tried a quick scalp on those charts?
Beside all the chart analysis that I make I also have some nice edge information like the Diamond Reuters business plan, from which I receive information like this :

TUESDAY, JUNE 4, 2013


USD/JPY BETTER BID, NIKKEI UP, RBA STANDS PAT

Market Briefs
• RBA leaves OCR as is at 2.75%, scope for further easing, commodity prices off peak
but still historically high, AUD too remains high, inflation consistent with target,
expected to remain so, easy money should strengthen growth.
• Japan EconMin Amari - FX, stock markets in adjustment phases, natural after rapid
moves, eyes consolidation eventually - Reuters.
• Japan April total cash earnings +0.3% y/y, 1st rise in 3-mos, overtime pay +0.4%,
1st rise in 7-mos.
• Japan end-May monetary base up to Y159.1641 trln, end-April Y155.2803 trln.
• US economist Roubini - Japanese financial markets won't crash but will remain
volatile - CNBC
  • #34,357
  • Jun 4, 2013 1:12am Jun 4, 2013 1:12am
current move in the majors are indicating that the crosses are being manipulated, imo.

thats proly why eurusd's upward momentum in the last hour seems pretty light.
money in usd/jpy long train also have to be nifty.

watch again how eur/jpy drags both the majors up. step lightly on the pedals guys
  • #34,358
  • Jun 4, 2013 1:17am Jun 4, 2013 1:17am
Quoting Doboy408
{quote} japan pumps QE...QE brings stocks up...QE devalue currency
Thank you. The mechanism { QE = floating money = stocks up } is well understood.
The question I asked was why { stocks down = money removal } because one might think that sellers of stocks would then have lots of Yen and that should weaken the Yen.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #34,359
  • Jun 4, 2013 1:30am Jun 4, 2013 1:30am
Quoting MisterSpread
{quote} Hello Exodus, to tell you the truth I don't know exactly why this correlation works like this but I just saw the almost similar patterns 6 months ago and since than I tried to find information about it....
Thanks Vlad, I read the article and have realised another facet to this, so here is my take on it.

{ Stocks up = money into brokers and banks = brokers and banks distribute cash for best yield = sell Yen, buy Aud or something }
{ Stocks down = banks and brokers have to supply Yen (buy Yen using reserves) = Yen strength, and Yen remains in Japan at least temporarily }

This is a better understanding of the money flow than the superficial Monday morning droop which I have observed, and which I put down to positioning for market open and companies paying bills.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #34,360
  • Jun 4, 2013 1:43am Jun 4, 2013 1:43am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} Thanks Vlad, I read the article and have realised another facet to this, so here is my take on it. { Stocks up = money into brokers and banks = brokers and banks distribute cash for best yield = sell Yen, buy Aud or something } { Stocks down = banks and brokers have to supply Yen (buy Yen using reserves) = Yen strength, and Yen remains in Japan at least temporarily } This is a better understanding of the money flow than the superficial Monday morning droop which I have observed, and which I put down to positioning for market open and companies...
Glad that I could help , anytime you need a piece of info drop me a pm and will try to help out !

Cheers and green pips,
VladG
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