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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #34,321
  • Jun 3, 2013 2:40pm Jun 3, 2013 2:40pm
I love you...
  • #34,322
  • Jun 3, 2013 2:45pm Jun 3, 2013 2:45pm
Nikkei futures have taken a bounce ~1% on news known for 6 months, so likely USDJPY still heads lower to 98.50 and then correctly converges with N225 maybe around 97.
  • #34,323
  • Jun 3, 2013 2:47pm Jun 3, 2013 2:47pm
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"Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1." — Warren
  • #34,324
  • Jun 3, 2013 2:47pm Jun 3, 2013 2:47pm
Quoting rwr
I love you...
Because he said something what u just wanted to hear?
  • #34,325
  • Jun 3, 2013 2:55pm Jun 3, 2013 2:55pm
Quoting Tomoney
{quote} Because he said something what u just wanted to hear?
yeah pretty much...just a little humor...like my accuracy in trading
  • #34,326
  • Edited Jun 4, 2013 2:34am Jun 3, 2013 2:58pm | Edited Jun 4, 2013 2:34am
Quoting rwr
Retest of 103. ??? Somebody please say yes...anyone anyone
think will take many months to see that levels again (year maybe)
just close some longs (99.47) from 99.2 and i will take profits for the rest on
99.7 No good idea to go long now above 100 the last year bullish rally
im sure is getting an end
  • #34,327
  • Jun 3, 2013 3:17pm Jun 3, 2013 3:17pm
hate to pop the bubble of the UJ bulls, but technically speaking we can drop all the way to c86 and STILL remain in a bull market for this pair (61.8% retrace of weekly swing from late aug 2012)...
the bulls on this pair unable to take back the 100 level is pretty significant... looks like we will see more downward pressure over the course of the coming weeks, even though there may be a short term bounce before that...
any bulls holding longs should use the bounce to exit any longs (underwater or not) because I think its gonna be a while before we get back to recent highs of c103.3x
my month end price target for this bad boy is around 96... i am kicking myself for selling out of some of my shorts that I had been holding since 102.4/102.8...

best of luck to all
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #34,328
  • Jun 3, 2013 3:23pm Jun 3, 2013 3:23pm
99 74 - 80
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  • #34,329
  • Jun 3, 2013 4:41pm Jun 3, 2013 4:41pm
I am beginning to love divergence don't blame me. But i do believe long term trend is south
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  • #34,330
  • Jun 3, 2013 4:43pm Jun 3, 2013 4:43pm

I think I am not the only mixed on this pair

After a some strong swings the USDJPY closed below both the resistance from the previous triangle that became support, as well as the support that was converging at the same price. Now that price has invalidated the resistance turn support it is no longer of use technically since the market no longer respected it. Now the other line of support that broke is now providing resistance around the 99.5 price. Although you can see I have a bullish Gartley pattern which it hit that 70.7% Fibonacci level nicely after driving through the 61.8%, the outlook is for a likely retest of the 70.7% Fibonacci price of 98.9 . At that point would like to see some continuation signs on the 5 minute chart before selling this pair to go lower to possibly to the next possible pattern completion at 97.908.

As far as the current pattern though, price tends to move sideways after moves like this if not lower. So if you didn’t buy at 98.9, best is to wait for that sideways movement first and then buy on a break on the lower time frames. Any close back above the support level that turn to resistance on the 8 or 4 hour will be the sign that the target 1 of the Gartley at 101.3 could be the next level of resistance. Big week for the US Dollar with all the economic releases to come along with speculation of the Fed's next step in policy. Definitely gonna be a busy week for all traders.
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  • #34,331
  • Jun 3, 2013 4:53pm Jun 3, 2013 4:53pm
I'm waiting to pull the trigger just to try to make a few pips. Let´s see.
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  • #34,332
  • Jun 3, 2013 4:56pm Jun 3, 2013 4:56pm
Gidday Traders

Well thought the 100 would hold, wrong

My question is were is it going now.

If they want everybody on board for a weak YEN

Doing this does not inspire confidence in risking an holding longs

See how it plays out this week
  • #34,333
  • Jun 3, 2013 5:05pm Jun 3, 2013 5:05pm
Quoting eliteincome
Gidday Traders Well thought the 100 would hold, wrong My question is were is it going now. If they want everybody on board for a weak YEN Doing this does not inspire confidence in risking an holding longs See how it plays out this week
hold your breath
  • #34,334
  • Jun 3, 2013 6:14pm Jun 3, 2013 6:14pm
nice 99 70
  • #34,335
  • Jun 3, 2013 6:36pm Jun 3, 2013 6:36pm
Quoting eliteincome
Gidday Traders Well thought the 100 would hold, wrong My question is were is it going now. If they want everybody on board for a weak YEN Doing this does not inspire confidence in risking an holding longs See how it plays out this week
Totally agree with you after this strong run it is time for the BOJ to follow through. Going back to 2010 they had a similar tone but never as effective as this year in weakening the Yen. So it is surprising for it to have pulled back below 100. I guess this week it is gonna be all about the outlook for the 2nd half, going back to the Fed minutes in February they had doubts about growth in the second half of 2013. Today's Manufacturing PMI number disappointing, yes it was and if the unemployment rate rises Friday likely the same tone as today.
  • #34,336
  • Jun 3, 2013 7:12pm Jun 3, 2013 7:12pm
What I see is that Asian traders believe in weaker JPY EU traders are undecided and US traders believe in stronger JPY, So now USDJPY climbing, but I suppose it will fall once US market opens or even earlier, however I think more opportunities will arise in JPY crosses. Let's see, EURJPY made me 60 pips this morning it could made 100, but I thought too early to think that we have new trend, need more confirmation.
kiss the trend
  • #34,337
  • Jun 3, 2013 8:24pm Jun 3, 2013 8:24pm
Quoting StoneColdFX
I think I am not the only mixed on this pair After a some strong swings the USDJPY closed below both the resistance from the previous triangle that became support, as well as the support that was converging at the same price. Now that price has invalidated the resistance turn support it is no longer of use technically since the market no longer respected it. Now the other line of support that broke is now providing resistance around the 99.5 price. Although you can see I have a bullish Gartley pattern which it hit that 70.7% Fibonacci...
Nice U/J chart. I've noticed that the Japanese Govt talking heads seems to be content on letting it fall. They won't comment on the U/J in the press when asked. I will let this baby fall until 95 before I even look at buying it.
  • #34,338
  • Jun 4, 2013 12:42am Jun 4, 2013 12:42am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} I'm with you. Just got in long @ 99.0 As you wrote earlier this level is the top of the previous stair-tread, kinda, and so I'm looking for a bounce back to 100 at least. If this is the crouch before a leap it may go beyond 104. Voyeurs please pull up a 12hr chart which shows what we are talking about; you can also see it on the daily chart but it is more obvious on the 12hr chart.
Morning Sir , just hold on to that long because as I'm seeing on the chart it's more than possible that in the next 2-3 days to touch 100.600 +. You know that some of us, are trading this pair since October and with nice returns.
Remember this.... when Lions eat, pigs get slaughtered !!! So hold on Lion cause I'm smelling a lot of pork chops in the near future !
  • #34,339
  • Jun 4, 2013 1:31am Jun 4, 2013 1:31am
Quoting MisterSpread
{quote} Thank you Sir but I don't believe in luck at all , regarding the elevator I think that you guys should have learned that this kind of drops are very healthy and natural for the monthly trend and are creating a so called foot rising pattern for the trend. Like someone said a few posts ago, the best strategy is the one that makes money for you, so if you think that shorting this pair from now on is going to work, I wish you only green pips . All the best, VladG P.S: Oh yeah not to forget that this kind of drops happened at least 3 times...
Quoting MisterSpread
{quote} Really ? Well In my opinion you should really learn your fundamentals better, I hope you are not one of those who were arguing with me in October last year at 82 that we will see a drop to 78... and I was telling them that the trend will continue for quite a while. Fundamentals you say ? US bond yield's are rising, BOJ with Kuroda and Abe must prove to the world that they can talk the talk and walk the walk and if you really are a trader of this pair and speaking about fundamentals you should remember that at 92, almost 2 months ago Kuroda...
Hey DHT still keeping on those shorts? PK I hope that now you will understand better the gimmicks behind this pair and not read all the BS that some marketmakers are posting just to mislead the usual traders.
Yes Mpt we will see you at 68 but not for the next 2 years at least until Japan reaches the 2% inflation target set by Abe when he took charge.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...0DR02N20130604

We have 2 big resistances, 1st and in my opinion the most important for intraday is 100.470 because is also the flat bottom of the Kumo on H1 and if it breaks that and confirms that penetration into Kumo the next one will be at 100.909 where is the flat top, a penetration + confirmation of that break will lead the way to 101.600.

Cheers and green pips to you all,
VladG
  • #34,340
  • Jun 4, 2013 1:34am Jun 4, 2013 1:34am
Quoting MisterSpread
{quote} {quote} Hey DHT still keeping on those shorts? PK I hope that now you will understand better the gimmicks behind this pair and not read all the BS that some marketmakers are posting just to mislead the usual traders. Yes Mpt we will see you at 68 but not for the next 2 years at least until Japan reaches the 2% inflation target set by Abe when he took charge. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...0DR02N20130604

Morning!

Well, I sold out of some of my shorts last friday... but this bounce is making me think that I may want to get back in on some of those shorts... will wait to see how far up this bounce runs before deciding how to play... so far its going exactly per the script...

best of luck
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
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