Sonic R. System

AU Long Trade:

Added long #13, Scout. This continues to be whipped up/down in the 100+ pips range. It is because the MMs don't have any plan other than that to make money off of it? Or, is it because the MMs are busily building a position for a huge run (next week?). I speculate the latter, and that the run will be up because PVSRA continues to indicate the MMs favor lower, rather than higher prices in the range. Still no SL. TPs are tentative because if nothing happens today, then next week this could really blow to the upside, in which case these TPs could be hundreds of pips too low!

PVSRA, EJ: Bulls or Bears?

At this point in the contest, PVSRA is way ahead....

Technically it starts with the info on Post 1 now, but the actual beginning of the process
was in the beginning days of August.

Use the search function and look for PVSRA and you should find plenty to start with.

Also search traderathome for any posts with PVSRA in them.

Happy Hunting !

Price and Volume analysis is a powerful tool (maybe even the most powerful tool, if used correctly) but there is a point that personally I am focusing right now to figure out an learn to distinguish with a high percentage rate where the move is generated by the bears or bull (this involves big moves with big candles involving gib volumes)
Some people who are just initiating into this strategy might get confused, and it perfectly fine, I'm also confused at a certain degree so I have a couple of thoughts that I would like to discuss, and pointing them out may be will contribute to developement of this strategy.
So my thoughts are:
MMs need the price at a certain level, let's sey they are bull so they want it low. They creat a bearish trend (mid term) to see how low can they get the price. In this case they have long pendings placed the targeted low area. Now, just placing the orders won't get the price where they want it, so at this stage they push the price with spot shorts creating those high volume candles (in our case red candles) that rally down. When the price hits the desired Low Area where they have their pending longs, the price usually stalls (a strong indicator is a pin bar, a very distinctive pin bar is imho a great indicator to this bear/bull price volume equilibrium) Now, the MMs close their shorts (IN PROFIT!) and we see a push up of the price on lower volumes, why? the volumes from the short trades are that were closed released the bearish tension that was holding back the pressure of newly triggered longs, in tihs case only the long trades volume remains and without any bear resistance (the shorts were closed, at times there are other bears joining the "wrong way" being too late, which makes the price hesitate) the price starts rising.
Now I'm sure that many of you already know it (the example was a rough example, considering the MMs volumes represents a HUGE part of volume on spot, which in most cases is true) but here is the thing that I am fighting to figure out now: MMs don't have only the target open price for their trades, they also have a target close price (a.k.a Take Profit level). So at times it is not enough to get the price down to open longs, they must also put some pressure (if needed) on they back way up to the profit area where they can close their longs. So, imho, MMs don't always buy ONLY at lows and sell ONLY at highs, they also (As I already said sometimes) put the pressure during the move back to the profit zone, wich shows up as also an increase in volume. This can be seen as high volume bars along with big price bars, and when the bar is closed the price doesn't retrace from it, it keeps fluctuating in that area (and the volumes are really small in corelation to previous moves).
The danger lies in, as TAH already said, one can never know with certainty where is the target open area of MMs. An other danger is that in the market at the same time there can be several MMs, and their target areas cand differ.

So I invite all of you with experience to help me, eachother and even yourselves, by expressing your thoughts on it.

Welcome back, JRissa! What if you lower your FR starting point.......?

AU Long Trade:

Added long #14, Scout. PVSRA: M1 shows the MMs have taken price below 3/4SR with high activity, indicating they are bulls pushing the price down as they add more longs. This could still go lower. That is the one thing we can never know,....when they will initiate a run for profits. But if they push lower, I will likely add more.

Word of Caution
Indiscriminately adding to a trade while MMs move the price in the "wrong" direction increases risk, though not as high as if you'd bet the farm on your first entry. In this case I have two things in my favor. PVSRA continues to indicate the MMs are bulls. And I have already banked more than four thousand pips for the week, so I could close this trade out and still have a great week.

What your money management look like if i may ask?

EU: How the MM's are trolling people or small traders

Disclaimer
This is only my point of view. I could be totally wrong about it. Don't take it as a trading lesson because it's not, this is just my thought

Look at the 1H chart I attach. The blue rectangle is the zone between 50 and 61.8 fibo of the big sell between 1.32xx and 1.28. The red line is the resistance trend line that it formed. Notice how the MM pushed the price up through it, giving the people a chance to long there and because of that and using the bullish momentum, to start to close longs to a better price. Then we see bearish candles (you can see the M5 chart), I see that as the MM's closing longs and opening shorts. This operation takes time, and they need liquidity to do that.

Casually, the price is being pushed down (closing longs + adding shorts + momentum) just to the trend line again. The small traders say "wow, perfect pullback! let's long this" and the MM's know that because they know the mass behavior. So, they could use that liquidity to keep closing longs (if they still have) and adding shorts.

Let's see what happen. They could push the price again through the blue zone and repeat the operation or they can decide it's time to party. As usual, we don't know when they will do that, but they are leaving signals imo.

Have a good day guys.

PS: As I said, I'm building mid-term short in EU. This is not a short term trade so I don't have an ETA. My most conservative TP would be 1.28, but due the current situation in EZ (EuroZone) I think this is just the calm before the storm.

Congrats tah your conquering the fx world.
Thank you for your help. Am tired of this Au pair too much drawdown on my long. Are we still waiting for the trade level indicator ea?

Congrats tah your conquering the fx world.
Thank you for your help. Am tired of this Au pair too much drawdown on my long. Are we still waiting for the trade level indicator ea?

Today, assigned around the 0715th Something closed sooner, some later. Then open another position, according to the development ...

Tah, Result! I am still trying to get my head round your trading method. Sonic'c classic approach and Islander's objective judgement to PVRA is clearer. I have been back tracking your GU trades. Can you please clarify - was the first long opened on the 16th and were all closed at the same time i.e. yesturday? I am looking at the pipes abd what the GU charts shows. Many thanks, Fig

Pvra +sonicr ; thats the way to fx success for me.

While yes, offcourse! I'm always using 5min and 1min charts to make entries. Just wanted to point out the conflict between differend chart pattern analysis to show how there's allways another point of view. PVSRA gives ultimate accurate results. Your posted 1h chart showed push through 1h chart trendline, but weekly and monthly charts showed high resistance on 50% fibo. If we think this as we were MM's; we would want more shorts and what would be better way to get people to add longs, than to move price through trendline? Everyone will see bullish activity and take the long side. Then there comes this higher resistance level, where MM's have enough moment with high timeframe traders to change direction leaving all longs licking their fingers.

If I would have traded today, this is how I would have done it. Just an example. I'm taking break from trading during my vacation, cause it just takes too much of my family time and I can't consentrade

This would have been the ultimate entry point. Pierce just trough 50% fibo and back below it and bounce off after that.



This would have been Sonic R entry +PVSRA added EP2 scout.

Thanks. I understand, because my patience with AU is wearing thin also. I expect that is exactly what the MMs are shooting for, every long to cave in and sell out so the MMs can add more longs themselves at the lows before ramming it up,....for real the next time.

As for a Trade Levels EA, it might or might not happen. If St3ve is working on it, I am sure he will let us know when it is done. If not, well we have lived this long without one, so I guess we can survive.

To get answers to your questions all you have to do is view the trade postings, each of which clearly states what is what. I recommend you start with the closing post and follow the links back until all your questions are answered.

I will be very glad if Steve gives us the trade level indicator ea cos i don't enjoy watching price movement all day long it affects my eyes

You misunderstand the purpose of the EA. It won't decide where/when to execute orders. You will still have to initially place orders manually. However, once placed, they might be able to be changed simply by "drag and drop" of the line on the chart.

Yes i understand all that, but after placing the trades i can set my hidden tp, be or sl and stop staring at the system and the ea will close all trade entries accordingly. Instead of watching till my tp to close by myself since i don't like setting hard tps, sl - prone to broker hunting, which means i have to watch the trades Sometimes even when i should be sleeping.

I will sit tight on this AU long. They have to initiate an up move somewhere along the line afterall they are long as well as indicated by PVSRA or so i think.