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Sonic R. System

  • #50,001
  • May 30, 2013 9:21am May 30, 2013 9:21am
Quoting fex
Any kind soul could tell me what "selloff" and how to differentiate it from a regular bearish candle with high volume?
Post a pic, fex. Everything has to be taken in context. No context, no reliable determination.
  • #50,002
  • May 30, 2013 9:29am May 30, 2013 9:29am
Quoting traderathome
EU: I don't wish to sound like a nanny, Sonicers, but do keep in mind that on the H1 chart today we see that often occurring pullback to/into/or thru the Dragon, which is confirmation of the ongoing direction. Yes, there might be more pullbacks (short trade opportunity), but those might be considered counter-trend and therefore more risky. This move up, breaking out the range, might just be getting underway..... {image}

Quoting traderathome
GJ Short Trade: Entered short trade #1, Scout. PVSRA: The price hike today culminated in higher activity trading at the highs and coming off the highs, indicating the MMs are bears seeking higher prices to sell (close longs/open shorts). If the banks hike the price back up, sufficiently higher, I plan to add to this short trade. There is no Classic short setup yet, but it could come, maybe tomorrow. Unfortunately, tomorrow is the last day of the week. I suspect the banks are going to hold up prices until next week, to give them an extended opportunity...

Hello tah,


do those two sounds contra to each other? More or less same pattern (back into dragon after runup) but EU you think it's still long and GJ you think short....pls explain.
Myself: after a nice long run till 1.3045 (and 100% fib) now a little short run to 61.8fib (1.2980)
FT
  • #50,003
  • May 30, 2013 9:36am May 30, 2013 9:36am
Quoting traderathome
{quote}Post a pic, fex. Everything has to be taken in context. No context, no reliable determination.
Sorry. The difference with others bearist candles is the huge volume, right? What does it mean? Anything else to identify them?
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Newbie trader
  • #50,004
  • May 30, 2013 9:37am May 30, 2013 9:37am
Quoting ForeignTrade
{quote} {quote} Hello tah, do those two sounds contra to each other? More or less same pattern (back into dragon after runup) but EU you think it's still long and GJ you think short....pls explain.Myself: after a nice long run till 1.3045 (and 100% fib) now a little short run to 61.8fib (1.2980)FT
Different pairs, different PVSRA. Just following PVSRA.
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  • #50,005
  • May 30, 2013 9:47am May 30, 2013 9:47am
Quoting traderathome
{quote}Different pairs, different PVSRA. Just following PVSRA. {image} {image}
I see the difference on the H4 chart indeed, thanks!
  • #50,006
  • May 30, 2013 9:49am May 30, 2013 9:49am
Quoting fex
{quote} Sorry. The difference with others bearist candles is the huge volume, right? What does it mean? Anything else to identify them? {image}
PVSRA, EJ: Bulls or Bears?

As I see it, fex, the context is the big run up. After that, the highest bars are consistent with the "bear" determination. And yes, even a move extending briefly down thru the half number with high activity (though not as high as the "bear" bars) can be discounted as not being bullish, but simply being a good price area to sell in, all things being considered.

Sometimes, the results of PVSRA on any single TF are mixed. You have to look at other TFs too, to try and see what determination weighs most predominately. Sometimes, you just have to wait until things become more clear and more consistent across TFs. This is not "simple as pie" stuff. Well, not always.
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  • #50,007
  • May 30, 2013 10:18am May 30, 2013 10:18am
Quoting traderathome
{quote}PVSRA, EJ: Bulls or Bears? As I see it, fex, the context is the big run up. After that, the highest bars are consistent with the "bear" determination. And yes, even a move extending briefly down thru the half number with high activity (though not as high as the "bear" bars) can be discounted as not being bullish, but simply being a good price area to sell in, all things being considered. Sometimes, the results of PVSRA on any single TF are mixed. You have to look at other TFs too, to try and see what determination weighs most predominately....
I am very grateful TAH.
Newbie trader
  • #50,008
  • May 30, 2013 11:07am May 30, 2013 11:07am
Quoting traderathome
GJ Short Trade: Entered short trade #1, Scout. PVSRA: The price hike today culminated in higher activity trading at the highs and coming off the highs, indicating the MMs are bears seeking higher prices to sell (close longs/open shorts). If the banks hike the price back up, sufficiently higher, I plan to add to this short trade. There is no Classic short setup yet, but it could come, maybe tomorrow. Unfortunately, tomorrow is the last day of the week. I suspect the banks are going to hold up prices until next week, to give them an extended opportunity...
GJ Short Trade:

Added short trade #2, Scout. I still intend to add if the price is hiked up thru the upper whole number, but in case that does not happen, I decided to take advantage of what looks like the third lower high area in the lower HLs waves being created. I also will look to adding a Classic, If I am at the computer when it happens.
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  • #50,009
  • May 30, 2013 11:11am May 30, 2013 11:11am
Quoting traderathome
{quote}I guess what was in the back of my mind was, ".....how much money are these greedy bastard stinking banks going for?" If that last drive up off the bottom was genuine, they did all that previous price manipulation for peanuts! Not likely! More downside is coming, and that last price manipulation upwards was just another price hike to load up shorts by stopping out the shorts of others, by triggering pending "wrong side" long orders, and by sucking in new longs. {image}
That's the answer I was looking for (and it makes perfect sense to me.)!

  • #50,010
  • May 30, 2013 11:34am May 30, 2013 11:34am
Quoting traderathome
{quote}UCad Short Trade: Added short trades #5, #6 and #7, all Scouts. {image}
UCad Short Trade:

Closed all seven short trades for 60x7= 420 pips gain, average EPx7 to close at TP1.
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  • #50,011
  • May 30, 2013 11:36am May 30, 2013 11:36am
UJ Short Trade

1- Scout PVSRA based
2- Classic
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Newbie trader
  • #50,012
  • May 30, 2013 11:45am May 30, 2013 11:45am
UJ Comment

If we are in a markdown moment, that moment is showing its first signs of weakness. This doesn't mean that the price can go lower. But all I see now is the volume increasing between 101.75 and 101.50 as you can see in the image attached. Biggest candle of the day in M5 (a thing that normally I take into account) is a huge bullish candle.

Also, in H1 you can see a potential (still speculative) SHS pattern. The markdown is in progress but it's showing weakness. However, it has still room to go lower with the big cap at 100. Maybe they could push the price even lower than 100, between 100 and 99.5 because that will give the SM enough liquidity (hunting stops) to add longs (again, still speculative).

Let's wait until the market decide. I'm out of UJ for the moment but I would go long rather than short if I have to choose. But, for now, it's time to wait, at least for me.

I hope it helps.

Best, Tymedu.
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To fail is just an opportunity to learn
  • #50,013
  • May 30, 2013 11:54am May 30, 2013 11:54am
Tymedu are very right, I should wait
Newbie trader
  • #50,014
  • May 30, 2013 11:59am May 30, 2013 11:59am
Quoting fex
Tymedu are very right, I should wait
Dear fex.

Don't forget this is only my point of view. In fact, TAH is still holding his shorts I think, and the current M5 and M15 trend and dragon are bearish. I just post my point of view to share my thoughts and to receive criticism or feedback if someone thinks I'm wrong. This is a forum, we are here to share and discuss

Best, Tymedu.
To fail is just an opportunity to learn
  • #50,015
  • May 30, 2013 12:04pm May 30, 2013 12:04pm
Tah i agree also... There's some Yen news tonight around
7:30pm Eastern Time...
I missed out 50 pips earlier today in london session, woke up around 6am and closed my long yen trade out for +2.7 pips... Lack of sleep
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Creditors have better memories than debtors.
  • #50,016
  • Edited 12:26pm May 30, 2013 12:05pm | Edited 12:26pm
Quoting Tymedu
UJ Comment If we are in a markdown moment, that moment is showing its first signs of weakness. This doesn't mean that the price can go lower. But all I see now is the volume increasing between 101.75 and 101.50 as you can see in the image attached. Biggest candle of the day in M5 (a thing that normally I take into account) is a huge bullish candle. Also, in H1 you can see a potential (still speculative) SHS pattern. The markdown is in progress but it's showing weakness. However, it has still room to go lower with the big cap at 100. Maybe they could...
UJ:

Tymedu, the H1 potential inverted H&S requires over 100 pips to the upside before qualifying to be one! There is a potential H&S on H4 that has only about 50 pips to the downside to qualification. It is not a perfect potential formation, I grant you that.

Yen pairs are weakening. So, you are banking on strong US dollar if you expect UJ to go up. Yet the dollar majors are showing dollar weakness.

M1 PVSRA shows, following what looks like the banks selling off right after the LS close (my interpretation), that price was pumped back towards the whole number and there occurred the highest trading following the close of the LS. That is a very strong PVSRA clue that the MMs are bears.

Well, let's see what happens. This exchange of viewpoints, i.e., the reasons for them, is what makes this the best thread at Forex Factory. You, Tymedu, are contributing a lot.
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  • #50,017
  • May 30, 2013 12:19pm May 30, 2013 12:19pm
@Tymedu
For a newbie like me it's always interesting to hear all points of view, and how the mind works from each of you (as the technique of Islander*). I have not closed my trades, but keep an eye on. I like to compare opinions, it helps me as a rookie. Dear Tymedu, just your effort (and many other) and share your thoughts seem to me sufficient reasons to be thankful.

*
Quoting Islander
{quote} Thanks, and whilst I was out there was a Lower High on the 5m / 15m that allowed more short entries. I was not able to take the first two, but they are by my rules - just the last and I've closed that as I'm having lunch and this is INTRA DAY trading..... {image}
Interestingly Islander thanks for sharing (I take because my job does not allow me to always be at the computer). At least another line to the checklist
Newbie trader
  • #50,018
  • May 30, 2013 12:31pm May 30, 2013 12:31pm
UJ:

As an update, there was just another run down, just like shortly after the close of the LS. Here is my PVSRA take on it......
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  • #50,019
  • May 30, 2013 1:07pm May 30, 2013 1:07pm
Quoting traderathome
UJ: As an update, there was just another run down, just like shortly after the close of the LS. Here is my PVSRA take on it...... {image}
The funny thing my friend, is that we can both be right xD.

I totally agree with your thoughts, there is a pump&dump in that zone, but I see that as a closing shorts zone. They are closing the shorts, hiking the price up and once they are again in the 100.75-100.50 zone, they start to close shorts. All this is pure speculation of course. And for me this is the medium phase of this, they did not finish to close their orders and they could do this again below 100.50 as well.

I entered my first long scout because I like the zone and the price is well defined. Below 99.50 I would think to close my scout. But let's see. I'm entering with my secondary account, with 0.5 minilots (so, 0.05 per pip).
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To fail is just an opportunity to learn
  • #50,020
  • May 30, 2013 1:15pm May 30, 2013 1:15pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} GU Long Trade: Added long trade #10, Scout. PVSRA: early Asian session trading brought price down below 1/4SR on higher activity, followed by an immediate rise. Price was worked back down again on increasing activity, indicating the MMs are bulls seeking lower prices for buying. {image}
GU Long Trade:

Previously (yesterday), I added long trade #11 and have now closed all eleven trades for 73x11= 803 pips gain, average EPx11 to close at TP1.
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