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  • #8,081
  • May 27, 2013 8:58pm May 27, 2013 8:58pm
Quoting jonander50
{quote} You must think that the price is random. The only window that provides price predictability is when it explodes, and that window lasts a few seconds, enough so that you can put your stop at 0. Once you do that, you should close the screen. Your tp is 150 and the price can go to 149 and back to 0, because until you have closed the operation, you will not know the final outcome, as it is random. Only the fact that you have 149 of profit does not guarantee that you will win the 150. Closes the screen once you've moved your stop to 0, you've...

A post that puts a smile on my face. As if I had written it myself.
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #8,082
  • May 27, 2013 10:08pm May 27, 2013 10:08pm
hi guys i'm new at forex what day of the month can i see those news?thanks
  • #8,083
  • May 27, 2013 10:58pm May 27, 2013 10:58pm
Quoting jonander50
{quote} You must think that the price is random. The only window that provides price predictability is when it explodes, and that window lasts a few seconds, enough so that you can put your stop at 0. Once you do that, you should close the screen. Your tp is 150 and the price can go to 149 and back to 0, because until you have closed the operation, you will not know the final outcome, as it is random. Only the fact that you have 149 of profit does not guarantee that you will win the 150. Closes the screen once you've moved your stop to 0, you've...
Thanks for the reply jonander50. I read all your posts on this thread and realized you have followed Tony's teachings successfully.

Great work buddy, inspirational.
  • #8,084
  • May 27, 2013 10:59pm May 27, 2013 10:59pm
Quoting luis34
hi guys i'm new at forex what day of the month can i see those news?thanks

http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
  • #8,085
  • May 27, 2013 11:04pm May 27, 2013 11:04pm
Quoting HighFive
I have just spent the best part of three days reading every page of this fascinating thread. One of the things I like most about it is how it has made me think outside the box somewhat. I like the method using 0SL and letting trades run 140 - 400 pips best, the simplicity is amazing. I'm looking forward to having a go but KNOW the hardest thing for me will be letting trades run. How the heck do you deal with watching a trade go from zero to say 100 pips then stalling short of the 140 pip target and dropping back to nothing. Monster challenge for...
One good way is to not set profit targets, but set a trailing stop. However trailing stop is tricky to manage. Bottom line is it virtually eliminates losses when prices goes the right way, however depending on the volatility level and how much you set as trailing stop, you could end up with very fantastic wins, or not too bad wins. So far I have not found a trailing stop that gives me fantastic wins of 100+ pips, maybe it is a value that has to be adjusted through the life cycle of the particular trade.

Personally, I am not a huge fan of setting a take profit and then shut down the computer. Sh%t always happen to me when I do that.
  • #8,086
  • May 28, 2013 12:22am May 28, 2013 12:22am
Thanks Journeyman, I have enjoyed reading all of your posts in this thread too. Trailing stops is a good idea.

I am a die hard short term scalper so am gonna have to totally adjust my mindset, a big challenge but an exciting one

It feels almost like I have to UN-learn all the preconceived ideas about SR, fibs, pivots blah blah and just follow the simple rules like a baby.

Keep it simple to the extreme.
  • #8,087
  • May 28, 2013 12:52am May 28, 2013 12:52am
Quoting Tony112
It definitely shows it's a bank holiday today! In fact, the whole week is quiet. I will be placing testing trades on these 2 news only. So 2 trades for the week! 3:55am EUR German Unemployment Change 2:00am German Retail Sales m/m each is 5 pip SL / 50 pip TP There are medium impact and not authorized in my 1st rules page.
Apologies if I have overlooked the answer to this elsewhere in the thread but why do we steer clear of all the other Red rated news? Is it just the worse spread or have they been tested and identified as a waste of time/effort?

Thanks again.
  • #8,088
  • May 28, 2013 1:14am May 28, 2013 1:14am
Quoting HighFive
{quote} Apologies if I have overlooked the answer to this elsewhere in the thread but why do we steer clear of all the other Red rated news? Is it just the worse spread or have they been tested and identified as a waste of time/effort? Thanks again.
Actually I'm not sure too... I believe Tony has his preference based on his experience. And comparing my experience and mixed success to Tony's, I think I'm much better off staying disciplined and follow this method to the letter.
  • #8,089
  • May 28, 2013 1:19am May 28, 2013 1:19am
Quoting HighFive
Thanks Journeyman, I have enjoyed reading all of your posts in this thread too. Trailing stops is a good idea. I am a die hard short term scalper so am gonna have to totally adjust my mindset, a big challenge but an exciting one It feels almost like I have to UN-learn all the preconceived ideas about SR, fibs, pivots blah blah and just follow the simple rules like a baby. Keep it simple to the extreme.
Actually I'm going through the same unlearning experience too. To think all the time effort and money spent on learning all those indicators; I'm a self proclaim expert in Ichimoku, and for good measure I add in Fibo technique, thinking thats the Holy Grail in my not so humble opinion.

But I'm wrong enough times to come back to earth and realise there is no silver bullets. We are playing against big players who already knows it before us. No... trend isn't your friend anymore. The name of the game is to swing with the sharks.
  • #8,090
  • May 28, 2013 1:39am May 28, 2013 1:39am
Quoting Journeyman
{quote} Actually I'm not sure too... I believe Tony has his preference based on his experience. And comparing my experience and mixed success to Tony's, I think I'm much better off staying disciplined and follow this method to the letter.
Thanks J, I just went back and re-read Tony's doc on post 1. Knowing Tony he will have tested and most likely eliminated the bad performers.

Quote, "Trading these news are in your advantage because of these factors:
- minor spread
- continuation of direction in price action
- pure elevation averaging 20 pips
- low ratio of failure or whipsaw"


Ref your last post about time, money and effort learning indis etc. I too have spent years and fortunes on this only to end up with totally naked charts and momentum / volume as my trigger. I feel it was all time and money well spent if only to eliminate the less than useful stuff.
  • #8,091
  • May 28, 2013 3:21am May 28, 2013 3:21am
Quoting Tony112
It definitely shows it's a bank holiday today! In fact, the whole week is quiet. I will be placing testing trades on these 2 news only. So 2 trades for the week! 3:55am EUR German Unemployment Change 2:00am German Retail Sales m/m each is 5 pip SL / 50 pip TP There are medium impact and not authorized in my 1st rules page.
Interesting choice! Can't wait to see how it works out!
  • #8,092
  • May 28, 2013 9:28am May 28, 2013 9:28am
Hi fellow Traders, this is not meant to override the news events that Tony listed in page one, but I will be looking forward to the following news events next week and see how these works out:

Monday - ISM Mfg Index
Tuesday - Trade Balance
Wednesday - ADP Non-farm employment change
Friday - Non Farm Payroll / Unemployment Rates

All the above are USD news and from my experience are very market moving. The big catch is these high volatility also means crazy spreads and slippage. But I'm trying these out hopefully we find some tradable news events that are suitable for those of us who trades during US market timings.
  • #8,093
  • May 28, 2013 12:09pm May 28, 2013 12:09pm
I read the latest posts. The reason why Tony said to trader those news is that they are almost every time going in the same direction(no whipsaws). Other minor news have good movement as well, but they have too much "bad movements". I have analized all news till to january and found that Tonys' and some more news are tradable only(less risky).
  • #8,094
  • May 29, 2013 12:57am May 29, 2013 12:57am
Thanks for the reply 3spak
  • #8,095
  • May 29, 2013 3:20am May 29, 2013 3:20am
3:55am EUR German Unemployment Change

unfortunately no momentum on this news.

best regards
  • #8,096
  • May 29, 2013 6:03am May 29, 2013 6:03am
Quoting Tony112
It definitely shows it's a bank holiday today! In fact, the whole week is quiet. I will be placing testing trades on these 2 news only. So 2 trades for the week! 3:55am EUR German Unemployment Change 2:00am German Retail Sales m/m each is 5 pip SL / 50 pip TP There are medium impact and not authorized in my 1st rules page.
The EUR German Unemployment Change was indeed market moving, although not quite the way we expected. It took over 3 hours for the momentum to build up, and would had been quite an agonising wait for those who placed their bets. However that's worth the wait, there's a good 60 pips in this.

I consider this a good call!
  • #8,097
  • May 29, 2013 10:51pm May 29, 2013 10:51pm
Spread was insanely high I set buy and sell 7 pips away

because of spread my buy got filled.... then it shot down hitting SL right away

Anyway we can still trade this? Or is this just not tradable?

It dropped 15 pips

7:30pm
AUD

Building Approvals m/m

9.1%
4.1%
-5.5%



AUD

Private Capital Expenditure q/q

-4.7%
0.7%
-2.1%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 27 KB
Attached Image
  • #8,098
  • May 29, 2013 11:47pm May 29, 2013 11:47pm
Quoting dvanderlinde
Spread was insanely high I set buy and sell 7 pips away because of spread my buy got filled.... then it shot down hitting SL right away Anyway we can still trade this? Or is this just not tradable? It dropped 15 pips 7:30pm AUD Building Approvals m/m 9.1% 4.1% -5.5% AUD Private Capital Expenditure q/q -4.7% 0.7% -2.1% {image} {image}
This doesn't look like EURUSD, is it?
  • #8,099
  • May 29, 2013 11:55pm May 29, 2013 11:55pm
Quoting Journeyman
{quote} This doesn't look like EURUSD, is it?
Oh no sorry it's Aud/Usd was just testing with small lots
  • #8,100
  • May 30, 2013 12:23am May 30, 2013 12:23am
Quoting dvanderlinde
{quote}Oh no sorry it's Aud/Usd was just testing with small lots
Our focus is on EURUSD becuase of its liquidity and low spread. AUD has higher spreads to start with, and even with EURUSD we had recently realized setting 10 pips above and below for limit orders might be more appropriate.
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