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  • #34,161
  • May 28, 2013 10:15am May 28, 2013 10:15am
I'm just too embarrassed to say that I'm losing money. Too late now!

I keep putting the wrong trades on and killing my account.

I was reading your posts and still getting it wrong.

I'm hopeless at this and have no valid input, sorry..
  • #34,162
  • May 28, 2013 10:27am May 28, 2013 10:27am
Quoting Mozzy
I'm just too embarrassed to say that I'm losing money. Too late now! I keep putting the wrong trades on and killing my account. I was reading your posts and still getting it wrong. I'm hopeless at this and have no valid input, sorry..
maybe i'm over complicating it... i don't think regular analysis applies w/.uj --- this stair-stepping thing is like a mode that .uj goes into. it trades in successive zones, each for a while, then move up and won't come back down - just watch as successive floors and ceilings go in with ceilings turning into floors. usually begins with a sharp rise.

usually follows situation where japan feels it's easing lid is off
  • #34,163
  • May 28, 2013 10:34am May 28, 2013 10:34am
Quoting 1candlepower
{quote} maybe i'm over complicating it... i don't think regular analysis applies w/.uj --- this stair-stepping thing is like a mode that .uj goes into. it trades in successive zones, each for a while, then move up and won't come back down - just watch as successive floors and ceilings go in with ceilings turning into floors. usually begins with a sharp rise. usually follows situation where japan feels it's easing lid is off

No, you're probably not over complicating things. I'm just not experienced enough to understand.

I read that the uj was going to be heading down to 100. I guess I shouldn't believe everything I read.
  • #34,164
  • May 28, 2013 10:37am May 28, 2013 10:37am
Quoting Mozzy
I'm just too embarrassed to say that I'm losing money. Too late now! I keep putting the wrong trades on and killing my account. I was reading your posts and still getting it wrong. I'm hopeless at this and have no valid input, sorry..
Don't be embarrassed, I lost loads over the years.

Ok, dunno how long you have been into this thread but try reading this post and see if it does anything for your understanding.
Then, or also, consider your trade leverage - use 2:1 or 3:1 which means 2 or 3 micro-lots for every $1k dollars in your account.
This will help you sit-out the moves whilst you consider whether you were just plain wrong or simply made a bad entry.

Pull up a 4hr or long time-frame chart and see where the trend is going, arguably UJ is consolidating having recently punched through 100.
You may see this referred to as dispersion or congestion.

If you are new to forex then know that the road is long....
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #34,165
  • May 28, 2013 10:40am May 28, 2013 10:40am
Quoting 1candlepower
{quote} ----- this stair-stepping thing is like a mode that .uj goes into. it trades in successive zones, each for a while, then move up and won't come back down - just watch as successive floors and ceilings go in with ceilings turning into floors. usually begins with a sharp rise. usually follows situation where japan feels it's easing lid is off
Yep, this is characteristic of a trend.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #34,166
  • May 28, 2013 10:42am May 28, 2013 10:42am
Quoting Mozzy
{quote} No, you're probably not over complicating things. I'm just not experienced enough to understand. I read that the uj was going to be heading down to 100. I guess I shouldn't believe everything I read.

it's a mystery to me too most of the time (when it's not stair-stepping or doing a mad plunge). my best idea on .uj right now is that its higher frame price action is about the different excuses japan comes up with to explain the huge jumps, then the falls are about technicals.

i wish more people were interested in discussing .uj --- i could probably learn a lot.
  • #34,167
  • May 28, 2013 10:45am May 28, 2013 10:45am
Well, I've been trading for over 1 year now and I admit I know a lot more than when I started.

I may just need to relearn everything again to confirm my knowledge.

Yes, the road is very long, but, I have no other option to earn an income in a normal capacity, so, this is going to keep me afloat to a degree.

A little extra money to help me get by.

I'm not really going for gold mines, but, I wouldn't be angry if I did pull of that one magical trade that profits me a bundle.

I'll keep chipping away and see if I can do this. One thing is, I'll never give up!


Thanks for the support guys. I appreciate it.
  • #34,168
  • May 28, 2013 10:49am May 28, 2013 10:49am
Quoting Mozzy
Well, I've been trading for over 1 year now and I admit I know a lot more than when I started. I may just need to relearn everything again to confirm my knowledge. Yes, the road is very long, but, I have no other option to earn an income in a normal capacity, so, this is going to keep me afloat to a degree. A little extra money to help me get by. I'm not really going for gold mines, but, I wouldn't be angry if I did pull of that one magical trade that profits me a bundle. I'll keep chipping away and see if I can do this. One thing is, I'll never...
sounds like plan
  • #34,169
  • May 28, 2013 10:58am May 28, 2013 10:58am
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...30528_POMO.jpg
  • #34,170
  • May 28, 2013 11:03am May 28, 2013 11:03am
Quoting Dano12
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...30528_POMO.jpg
what does it tell us?
  • #34,171
  • May 28, 2013 11:22am May 28, 2013 11:22am
Quoting PipJet
{quote} what does it tell us?
don't know. interesting explain for bump and dump in .uj around 10 est... thought that was option related. ZH talks about POMO's and the phony rise in equities a lot, but not much discuss at nuts and bolts lvl --- glad that chart was posted, i don't pay much attn to equity stuff. gotta dig out the POMO schedule and study it...
  • #34,172
  • May 28, 2013 11:26am May 28, 2013 11:26am
the fact that US equity markets are breaking to new highs again (at-least on the open) and USD/JPY is not confirming the move is alarming to say the least... these two have tracked a correlation pretty close to 1 over the past few weeks...

additionally, the pairs up move seems to have stopped cold at the 61.8% retracement of the most recent price swing (103.3x to 100.8x) for a second time

i maintain a bearish view on this pair for the short term, and expect that we will get close to 100 before breaking to new highs...

it may take some patience, and a few weak hands will get shaken out, cuz thats just how mr market rolls... it all depends on your time horizon...

all said and done, its easy to play pundit when you have no open positions, which is me at this time; i closed my longs @ c101.7 for appx 90 pips this morning... and watching the 240m charts closely for an re-entry on shorts...
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #34,173
  • May 28, 2013 11:39am May 28, 2013 11:39am
Quoting 1candlepower
{quote} .eu has moved less than .66% today... .uj has moved more than 1.56% ------ but no one here trades it?
Traded it all night and mentioned it here 15 hours ago.....Never have posted in this thread before though...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...72#post6710372
  • #34,174
  • May 28, 2013 11:48am May 28, 2013 11:48am
Quoting theDHT
the fact that US equity markets are breaking to new highs again (at-least on the open) and USD/JPY is not confirming the move is alarming to say the least... these two have tracked a correlation pretty close to 1 over the past few weeks... additionally, ...
... and watching the 240m charts closely for an re-entry on shorts...
the tracking since the 13th has been exceptionally good... if you look before that not so much, but i agree on the bearish sentiment. looking at main tl chan from feb 6, price should be falling toward one of the two bottom rails by now... instead, went into stair-step mode.

concern to me is that if it doesn't go back to norm chan bounce, it will be going parabolic soon ---- does that mean we're looking at 110+ by july?? can japanese gov come up with some scheme/excuse/story to make that happen?
  • #34,175
  • May 28, 2013 11:54am May 28, 2013 11:54am
Quoting 1candlepower
{quote} the tracking since the 13th has been exceptionally good... if you look before that not so much, but i agree on the bearish sentiment. looking at main tl chan from feb 6, price should be falling toward one of the two bottom rails by now... instead, went into stair-step mode. concern to me is that if it doesn't go back to norm chan bounce, it will be going parabolic soon ---- does that mean we're looking at 110+ by july?? can japanese gov come up with some scheme/excuse/story to make that happen?
Keeping an eye on jgb yields atm, up about 7bps from last week, currently @ c90bps... If these things start climbing up another 5bps or so, we may have an encore performance from last week... aka waterfall, before kuroda and co charge back in...
Lets see
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #34,176
  • May 28, 2013 11:54am May 28, 2013 11:54am
Quoting BlueCirrus
{quote} Traded it all night and mentioned it here 15 hours ago.....Never have posted in this thread before though... http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...72#post6710372
don't be a stranger
  • #34,177
  • May 28, 2013 12:01pm May 28, 2013 12:01pm
Quoting 1candlepower
{quote} don't be a stranger
THank you!...May check this thread more often since I'm usually watching both the EUR and the JPY.

Had this $/Yen pegged last night...missed the high by 3 tenths of a pip ---That does not happen every day for me!..
  • #34,178
  • Edited 2:53pm May 28, 2013 2:38pm | Edited 2:53pm
10y treas' have just gone over 2.14% - next res is at 2.30% ---- in the last 2 wks, 10y yields have only gone up ~.2% so, at curr rate of rise that would equate to almost 3 more wks of rise. also, the Nikkei has just recovered to ~14465 and looks to be getting back on track upward. these two factors will continue pushing .uj up for days... instead of going to lower rail and bouncing ... more stair-stepping to the upper rail around 104.25 looks feasible... this might not be a good time for a short unless you're using a 250-300p stop.

of course Willow could be right about every thing falling like a rock in 5-7 working days ( if you can hold your short that long )
  • #34,179
  • May 28, 2013 2:49pm May 28, 2013 2:49pm
Quoting 1candlepower
10y treas' have just gone over 2.14% - next res is at 2.30% ----... Willow could be right about every thing falling like a rock in 5-7 working days ( if you can hold your short that long )
if .uj continuation shoots up to 102.60 at today's close, and breaks that lvl, will def consider l/t long pos ---- that is both 61.8 fib of last wk's fall and long term trend echo from feb 6 main tl sys.
  • #34,180
  • May 28, 2013 3:18pm May 28, 2013 3:18pm
.uj stair-stepping upward again (on smaller $ scale) w/treads at 102.02, 102.11, 102.25 from 1430 est
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