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Sonic R. System

  • #49,721
  • May 27, 2013 12:49pm May 27, 2013 12:49pm
PVSRA, EU: Bulls or Bears? Building or Running for Profits?

M1 PVSRA clearly shows bulls at work. Easy time to move prices after LS closes. Where do prices go? Lower, below 1/4SR. Where is the higher trading being done? Lower. Buy low, sell high. This is a pullback down to add longs. On M15 you can see trend is up and this pullback down is higher than previous ones. It all fits into the picture of bulls in run for profits mode, using easily manipulated pullbacks (down) to add longs.
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  • #49,722
  • May 27, 2013 12:54pm May 27, 2013 12:54pm
GU - Bulls or Bears?
Bears?
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Newbie trader
  • #49,723
  • May 27, 2013 12:58pm May 27, 2013 12:58pm
Quoting fex
GU - Bulls or Bears?Bears? {image}
PVSRA, GU: Bulls or Bears? Building or Running for Profits?

Ok, you are asking. Do the analysis that is PVSRA (hint: don't do it on just one TF). What do you find PVSRA is indicating, and why? Post your summary, then I will comment.
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  • #49,724
  • May 27, 2013 1:31pm May 27, 2013 1:31pm
Quoting SCopier
{quote} yes,15,5,3 and 100,5,3

Are you talking about attached indicator ?
What settings did you change ?

Tks.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 sangmaneHL.mq4   3 KB | 732 downloads
There is no place for wimps
  • #49,725
  • May 27, 2013 1:32pm May 27, 2013 1:32pm
Ok TAH, thanks. I see a possible re-entry on M15.

PVSRA analysis. M15: MM push the prices just above whole number and increse volume, they are adding shorts or taking profits. M1: we have same situation.

Right? Thanks.

PS: By the way, I always ask, I hope to bring something some day
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Newbie trader
  • #49,726
  • May 27, 2013 1:38pm May 27, 2013 1:38pm
Just for your information, I´m gathering all relevant information about TAH's posts with valuable info about how to identify MM's intentions. It will take some time, but I think it will be very useful for the guys interested in this topic
To fail is just an opportunity to learn
  • #49,727
  • May 27, 2013 1:39pm May 27, 2013 1:39pm
Quoting figgsey
{quote} Tah, I second that in expressing my appreciation for not just the PVSRA work (and all others involved) but also for your analysis and trade posts. I have a query regarding the optimum time frame to deduce MM bulls or bears. Do you focus on the lower time frame - 1M/15M and if so how does that fit in with your longer TF analysis at say 1HR/4HR. In other words, a long term trend may be inconsistent with what PVSRA reports back... Ta
PVSRA: Bulls or Bears? Building or Running for Profits?

TFs analyzed should yield results that are consistent. Be careful when analyzing on high TF charts that you do not analyze what happened before a turn in price as part of what has happened since. This requires some thought, but the reason should be obvious. M1 can often give clear indications, when the market price action is capable of yielding clear indications. Sometimes M5 is clear when M1 is vague. Always M15 should be analyzed and recent action on H1 should not conflict. When PVSRA yields no clear indication, wait to trade, and keep analyzing until there is a clear indication.

Sonicers, does this sound like a lot to do? Does the "Holy Grail" look too heavy for you to even try to lift? If so, I recommend that you just wait for someone to serve you money on a silver platter.
  • #49,728
  • May 27, 2013 1:42pm May 27, 2013 1:42pm
Quoting Tymedu
Just for your information, I´m gathering all relevant information about TAH's posts with valuable info about how to identify MM's intentions. It will take some time, but I think it will be very useful for the guys interested in this topic
Thanks, the more information read about best.
Newbie trader
  • #49,729
  • May 27, 2013 1:54pm May 27, 2013 1:54pm
  •  St3ve
  • | Joined Jan 2013 | Status: Recovering from losses ... | 77 Posts
Quoting fex
M15: MM push the prices just above whole number and increse volume, they are adding shorts or taking profits. M1: we have same situation. Right?
My PVSR analysis showed some different results and as long as it stays this way, I keep my long positions open.


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steve
  • #49,730
  • Edited 2:15pm May 27, 2013 1:55pm | Edited 2:15pm
Quoting fex
Ok TAH, thanks. I see a possible re-entry on M15. PVSRA analysis. M15: MM push the prices just above whole number and increse volume, they are adding shorts or taking profits. M1: we have same situation. Right? Thanks. PS: By the way, I always ask, I hope to bring something some day {image} {image}
PVSRA, GU: Bulls or Bears? Building or Running for Profits?

How I see it. I agree with St3ve.
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  • #49,731
  • May 27, 2013 2:13pm May 27, 2013 2:13pm
It is shameful. Now I see it. I do not know what I'm missing. Thank you very much to both.
Newbie trader
  • #49,732
  • Edited 3:22pm May 27, 2013 2:19pm | Edited 3:22pm
Quoting fex
It is shameful. Now I see it. I do not know what I'm missing. Thank you very much to both.
PVSRA

fex,

Not "shameful". Knights of old worked long and hard and suffered much to gain the skills necessary to combat evil and survive. We ought to expect anything of significance will require diligent practice and lots of reflection about mistakes made. Learning is a process, not an event. Discovery is an event. PVSRA is discovered. Now, for all of us, begins the learning process.

Keep your armor clean, your sword sharp and stick to your learned thrusts. Keep your charts clear of all extraneous indicators, your focus sharp on price, volume, S&R and stick to the Sonic R. System Classic setups that are in accordance with PVSRA. When you do all this well, you can get fancy later and add Scouts (as a knight adds more varied thrusts).

PVSRA is explained at the following link, and there are lots of posted examples of analysis since the start of the last week of March. A pdf. compiled by jackywang5, linked in Post #1, contains many of these examples. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...75#post6707275

-tah
  • #49,733
  • May 27, 2013 3:06pm May 27, 2013 3:06pm
Thank you for those words, I will follow your advice, encourage me to intensify my efforts. In any case I can not wait much longer with only 8 months in the world of the trader .
Newbie trader
  • #49,734
  • May 27, 2013 3:21pm May 27, 2013 3:21pm
One part of the PDF I'm working on

The details are the key

We need experience to master our system. To master PVSRA will take time, but once you do it, it will help you a lot, even if your trading system is different. Fortunately, TAH has discovered some hints to help us to determine if MM's are bull or bears. Let's see those tricks.

Volume increases at the highs or at the lows

This could be our first hint to discover if MM's are bulls or bears. Where is the volume rising regardless the price zone? Is it increasing at the tops or at the bottoms. If you see repeatedly the volume increasing at the tops, that could mean MM's are bears. Same in the opposite side, if the volume is rising at the lows, this could mean MM's are bulls. This is just an initial hint, and we need further confirmation to be sure about MM's.

Volume increases above or below S/R areas

The second hint, the volume and the zone. Another way to determine if MM's are bull or bears is to observe if the volume rises above or below S/R areas such as historical S/R zones, whole numbers (1.5200), half numbers (1.5250) or quarter numbers (1.5225-1.5275).

Why is that? After hours and hours of observation, we know MM's like to close longs/add shorts above this numbers and to close shorts/ add longs below them.

If we see the volume increasing just after the price is below these zones, it could mean MM's are bulls. Same with the other situation. If we see the volume rising above those numbers described before, it could mean MM's are bears. Of course, we have to pay attention to individual candlesticks and the PVA color. It's not the same if the price crosses a full number with a green huge candle than if it crosses without volume and then we have a lot of small candles with huge volume. Pay attention to the details.


Off hours Activity

The "off hours" of the market is when prices can be moved more easily, and therefore the MMs can take prices to where it advantages them with less investment (read that as also meaning market makers can do the same to get where orders to be filled are located).

If you see the price is drifted lower after the close of the London session. Do not think the MMs have decided to sell off in a weak market where doing so would quickly drop the price on themselves while trying to keep the price up while they sell. If the price drifts lower it is to advantage the MMs, and it is because they can close shorts and/or open longs at lower prices, i.e., at more profit! Therefore, a lower drifting price is confirmation the MMs are bulls.


Use different timeframes

We will need to analyze different timeframes to determine if MM's are bull or bears. For example, we can use a big timeframe (like H4 or D1) to see where is the price and the important zones it has around.

After that, we can start to observe the price behavior in M15 and to observe the current trend, where is the volume rising and why. Finally, we can go to M5 or even M1 to observe the price in specific situations and zones, it will help us to determine if the MM's are bulls or bears.

Building position vs classic entries

Once we determined if MM's are bulls or bears, we have to set up our strategy. We can start to add longs/shorts every time we see the MM's are doing the same or we can wait for a classic SonicR System entry. Both ways are valid and both ways have pros and cons.

If we decide to use the 'building position' method, we will have to be prepared to suffer because probably we will have to wait until the MM's decide to run for profits. In this phase, we could have to hold a big drawdown and because of that, it's very important to have a very good bank management. But using this method we can split our entries and we don't have to put a tight SL.

The second way is to wait for a classic SonicR System entry. We know MM's are bulls or bears and we will wait until we have a proper wave formed to entry the market. This is a safer way to trade, but it will mean that we have to put a SL below/above previous high/low and maybe that is not enough because maybe MM's want to push the price a little bit higher/lower.
To fail is just an opportunity to learn
  • #49,735
  • May 27, 2013 3:33pm May 27, 2013 3:33pm
Tah
Looking back on several trades performed in the past show me that every time you have position its better to have TP
of 100 pips, and for several times the pair going up and down and it is optimized to go with 100 pips tp.
and doing again and agin reentry . this will go great with your idea of leverage the entry point and it can go well with leverage the exit points
and maximize the the earnd pips.
  • #49,736
  • May 27, 2013 3:38pm May 27, 2013 3:38pm
Quoting Tymedu
One part of the PDF I'm working on The details are the key We need experience to master our system. To master PVSRA will take time, but once you do it, it will help you a lot, even if your trading system is different. Fortunately, TAH has discovered some hints to help us to determine if MM's are bull or bears. Let's see those tricks. Volume increases at the highs or at the lows This could be our first hint to discover if MM's are bulls or bears. Where is the volume rising regardless the price zone? Is it increasing at the tops or at the bottoms....
PVSRA

Tymedu, fine work you are about. It will probably become the PVSRA "Bible", the only document that provides a more detailed, yet concise, explanation of PVSR other than the PVSRA synopsis in the post that releases the TAH indys and templates. Jackywang5's PVSRA PDF has helped a lot of folks get acquainted and started with PVSRA. We all owe a lot of thanks to him for his timely work. However, we also eventually need PVSRA well, yet concisely explained, something more than the synopsis I added to the post that releases the indys/templates.

The singlemost important aspect of PVSRA that has come to light, other than that PVSRA can reliably indicate bulls or bears, is that bulls and bears have two phases to their work, building and running for profits. The difference is the general direction of PA. For example, bears favor higher prices rather than lower prices to do their selling, but in the building phase they move prices up. In the run for profits they move prices down, while still favoring higher prices via pullbacks. So, PVSRA can determine if bull or bear, and also if building or running for profit.

Sonicers should focus on the "running for profit" phase for trading. They should start by focusing on trading Classics and re-entries in this phase. The Scout is primarily a pre-Classic entry, early in the switch from the building phase to the run for profits phase when the Dragon is not yet showing us a Classic setup, but PA HLs or a breakout from consolidation is suggesting it is appropriate to make a Scout entry.

Somehow, try to get these points across. Thanks.

Great Endeavor, Tymedu,
-tah
  • #49,737
  • May 27, 2013 3:39pm May 27, 2013 3:39pm
Tymedu, very useful information, thanks for the effort.

This tip of details that I clarify some doubts. Although it is clear enough, it would be interesting an example. Believe it or not, I have read all the information mentioned in this thread several months.

Quoting Tymedu
Of course, we have to pay attention to individual candlesticks and the PVA color. It's not the same if the price crosses a full number with a green huge candle than if it crosses without volume and then we have a lot of small candles with huge volume. Pay attention to the details.
I think I look better in M5 tracks rather than M1.
Newbie trader
  • #49,738
  • May 27, 2013 3:52pm May 27, 2013 3:52pm
Dear tah, what can we say about usd/cad ?? remain bear ?
There is no place for wimps
  • #49,739
  • Edited 8:47pm May 27, 2013 3:55pm | Edited 8:47pm
Quoting fex
Tymedu, very useful information, thanks for the effort. This tip of details that I clarify some doubts. Although it is clear enough, it would be interesting an example. Believe it or not, I have read all the information mentioned in this thread several months. {quote} I think I look better in M5 tracks rather than M1.
PVSRA

Market conditions do not continuously yield clear PVSRA results, and when conditions are better sometimes M1, sometimes M5, sometimes 15, etc., will show the clearest PVSRA results.

I don't think it wise of any Sonicer to try and "simplify" by setting themselves up to be less flexible when performing the analysis by focusing on "favorite" TFs. A skilled Knight knows well the use of sword, knife and shield,....using all proven tools, and using them all effectively.
  • #49,740
  • May 27, 2013 4:09pm May 27, 2013 4:09pm
@TAH,

Take into account this is just a draft. I'm not even an expert and I'm using this to settle all the things I am learning and order the idead in my head. Of course, once it's finished, it will be share. The point you mention (building position vs run for profits) has to be a key point in this document. It would be nice if you can provide a couple of examples for each case.

I included this part of one post you did:

"Bulls can repeatedly move prices down for buying (position building) before they start moving prices up for profit, but even during their run up for profits they can repeatedly pull prices back down to add more longs (trading opportunity). Bears can repeatedly move prices up for selling (position building) before they start moving prices down for profits, but even during their run down for profits they can repeatedly pull prices back up to add more shorts (trading opportunity)"

But as you can imagine it would be nice to support that concept with a couple of examples.

@fex

As I said, this is a WIP document. Feedback is appreciated of course. What would you like to see in that document regarding PVSRA?
To fail is just an opportunity to learn
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