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  • #801,641
  • May 25, 2013 8:53am May 25, 2013 8:53am
is it possible to reach 3038 for tomorrow ?
  • #801,642
  • May 25, 2013 9:02am May 25, 2013 9:02am
Quoting rehorst
{quote} COT supports your position of being non committal for direction.
There is three times more short contracts on non comms than long positions and further more had been added with reduction from the buyers as well.
Same goes for 3months euro dollar contracts, there is further reduction in long positions so I am not sure if that is a sign of been on the sidelines.

http://s18.postimg.org/3znydjml5/cot.gif
swing it!
  • #801,643
  • May 25, 2013 10:26am May 25, 2013 10:26am
Quoting rehorst
{quote} COT supports your position of being non committal for direction.
I noticed that too, but to be honest, I don't pay very much attention to cot reports.
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  • #801,644
  • May 25, 2013 10:28am May 25, 2013 10:28am
Quoting naidra
is it possible to reach 3038 for tomorrow ?
Who knows, look in your crystal ball or taro cards!
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  • #801,645
  • May 25, 2013 10:50am May 25, 2013 10:50am
Quoting naidra
is it possible to reach 3038 for tomorrow ?
Ofcourse target 3080 after a HH.
  • #801,646
  • May 25, 2013 10:59am May 25, 2013 10:59am
Quoting KillerWhale
Surprise, As I'm studying the charts, my bearish bias is changing.I now think EU can go either way. If the H&S on the daily/weekly is valid, we go down hundreds of pips.OrWe can see 1.2750 and 1.2796 as a "double bottom".If this is true we will go up hundreds of pips, to somewhere like close to 1.3500. I'm not predicting any levels needed for which way we go. Just keep in mind the basic theory off HH's, HL's or LH's, LL's.I'm following MACD and momentum on the higher time frames and of course my good old Gann HiLo. {image}

In fact, I was worried because I saw that too with same exact considerations.

I even thought it was going up some more pips, so I didn't stop my trade upwards, which is now losing a few pips. I've been greedy. Didn't want to leave open positions through the weekend, but...

I guess we will know next week, it "has" to move either way with some decision and strenght...
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  • #801,647
  • May 25, 2013 1:21pm May 25, 2013 1:21pm
Quoting naidra
is it possible to reach 3038 for tomorrow ?
Most probably no ...
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #801,648
  • May 25, 2013 5:10pm May 25, 2013 5:10pm
Quoting Goodvalley
{quote} In fact, I was worried because I saw that too with same exact considerations. I even thought it was going up some more pips, so I didn't stop my trade upwards, which is now losing a few pips. I've been greedy. Didn't want to leave open positions through the weekend, but... I guess we will know next week, it "has" to move either way with some decision and strenght...
Maybe not next week, maybe the week after.
May is historically a selling month.
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  • #801,649
  • May 25, 2013 8:23pm May 25, 2013 8:23pm
Quoting tomspin
{quote} There is three times more short contracts on non comms than long positions and further more had been added with reduction from the buyers as well.Same goes for 3months euro dollar contracts, there is further reduction in long positions so I am not sure if that is a sign of been on the sidelines. {image}
Thanks, Tomspin. I signed up for the COTbase reports. Yes, the short positions have increased for the large speculators. Here is the OI report which I interpret as a "mild up." So, perhaps I'm getting mixed up, or the signals are indeed mixed and therefore implying "stay out for the moment."
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: COT OI.jpg Size: 89 KB
  • #801,650
  • May 26, 2013 4:01am May 26, 2013 4:01am
Quoting rehorst
{quote} Thanks, Tomspin. I signed up for the COTbase reports. Yes, the short positions have increased for the large speculators. Here is the OI report which I interpret as a "mild up." So, perhaps I'm getting mixed up, or the signals are indeed mixed and therefore implying "stay out for the moment."{image}
Not many people use COT properly mate, it is much better to go trought reports by yourself and compare it with charts, and make up your own mind what is the relationship between PA and reports.
COT is great for spoting major shifts in the market, last one I saw in Feb, haven't seen similair pattern yet that is why I am still bearish.
You don't have to use it in your day trade, but if you wish to know if there's a shift in the sentiment unfolding - COT is the only tool to confirm this.
You only need short version of futures contracts report.
Good luck.
swing it!
  • #801,651
  • Edited 7:42am May 26, 2013 7:30am | Edited 7:42am
sos... the eu will remain under 2998 till it breaks that line in the sand. Friday the eu attempted to break 2998 and failed. in that failure the st made a case to target 2832.x.. that is not below, the still unconfirmed db at 2795/2820.. 2832 can fail.. but if one wants to long, that is a sweet spot if you think 2998 will break (2920.x/2832 is a sweet spot w/o LL.) 2663 is still a target in the mid term. its norm is 2997. we have not reached either.

fundi wise i think the euro should drop as all commodity based currency verse usd, simply because of energy cost. there is a multiple in there because of gdp... energy gets counted negatively or positively multiple times in gdp. something many overlook. kind of like the dollar going through the system getting exchanged many times. each exchange of energy adds to gdp since its domestically increasing . the u.s. had a equalization in energy production then a decline over the last 50 years. atm the u.s. is in a infant swing toward equalization toward a positive production rate, expected. any positive rate gets equally subtracted from the trade deficit, this raises the usd. cheaper energy makes more manufactures want to build near the cheaper energy, in turn, they build more. that makes more items available for cheaper export, in turn is a gbp multiple (lower trade deficit maybe turns positive) . yes it does make things from the u.s. more expensive, unless you consider the others are using more expensive energy. then its a wash.

get ready for the next 50 years + this probably would have already started to happen if not for the yen last year.
or maybe it has started.. look at the tops since 2008...they are lower.. this will sneak up on people like a light switch..

bookmark this.
looking to sell the tops,, bulls dont want those lows broke.

Ben B is about to lose control..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #801,652
  • May 26, 2013 7:40am May 26, 2013 7:40am


Good post. (and good morning from the US)
  • #801,653
  • May 26, 2013 7:49am May 26, 2013 7:49am
Quoting Pharm0r
Good post. (and good morning from the US)
bb talks/nfp we spike then then gap lower Sunday has been a pattern.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #801,654
  • May 26, 2013 7:53am May 26, 2013 7:53am
Quoting gatorinla
sos get ready for the next 50 years
But Gator, I have planned to be dead in 50 years from now.
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  • #801,655
  • May 26, 2013 8:04am May 26, 2013 8:04am
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} But Gator, I have planned to be dead in 50 years from now.
Transfer your account holdings over to me and I promise to keep your trading legacy alive
  • #801,656
  • May 26, 2013 8:11am May 26, 2013 8:11am
if the eu breaks 2794... then the au is the better short for 1300 pips. au has to break 9575... its due for a bounce atm ( a bounce is always better we can add that to the 1300).. going by the ea the aud can take an ass whippen ,, especily if it breaks 9575 au.... ideally waiting for it to bounce 650 pips is the better one,, if eu losses support at 2794.. we may have a bounce window at 2908.5... and there there aud may give clues. probably the same on the cad
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #801,657
  • May 26, 2013 8:34am May 26, 2013 8:34am
cad like the eu had a set up where the usd should drop. so far usd is losing that one near R.. the smaller chart is saying R will b near tested at 1.0446/28.. 3 charts saying about the same thing. "its not broke but trying"
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #801,658
  • May 26, 2013 8:44am May 26, 2013 8:44am
Quoting gatorinla
if the eu breaks 2794... then the au is the better short for 1300 pips. au has to break 9575... its due for a bounce atm ( a bounce is always better we can add that to the 1300).. going by the ea the aud can take an ass whippen ,, especily if it breaks 9575 au.... ideally waiting for it to bounce 650 pips is the better one,, if eu losses support at 2794.. we may have a bounce window at 2908.5... and there there aud may give clues. probably the same on the cad
Aud is heavily reliant on commodities. I've been waiting for this turd to take a dump. Gold/silver charts are the prequel of things to come for AUD.the target I have is 0.86x.. Need a decent bounce to get back in.
  • #801,659
  • May 26, 2013 8:46am May 26, 2013 8:46am
Quoting gatorinla
sos... the eu will remain under 2998 till it breaks that line in the sand. Friday the eu attempted to break 2998 and failed. in that failure the st made a case to target 2832.x.. that is not below, the still unconfirmed db at 2795/2820.. 2832 can fail.. but if one wants to long, that is a sweet spot if you think 2998 will break (2920.x/2832 is a sweet spot w/o LL.) 2663 is still a target in the mid term. its norm is 2997. we have not reached either. fundi wise i think the euro should drop as all commodity based currency verse...
3097?
  • #801,660
  • Edited 9:14am May 26, 2013 9:00am | Edited 9:14am
Quoting diggo
{quote} Aud is heavily reliant on commodities. I've been waiting for this turd to take a dump. Gold/silver charts are the prequel of things to come for AUD.the target I have is 0.86x.. Need a decent bounce to get back in.

sub .8300 myself.. but a bounce after break is normal
china buys from the roos. N.A. has commodities w/o the ocean cost of shipping. China has to buy it then ship it twice. while spending more for the energy. that's why there whole brand new empty cities. they built and nobody came.. labor cost are cheaper in other places. just like the ez,, its how things turn to shit before the 20 year cycle.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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