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USD/CAD

  • #3,681
  • May 24, 2013 2:22am May 24, 2013 2:22am
The overall cycle for this pair is still upwards (1.09).
We only have around a month plus for the next cycle to complete (1.047)
USD is currently weakened after the completion of the smaller cycle which will provide some room for other crosses to take advantage of. Even the news has no effect because of this. How far the other crosses will move depends on their own time and price cycle.
But this won't last long because after the temporary correction, USD will gain momentum to resume it's journey to complete its cycle.
  • #3,682
  • May 24, 2013 3:52am May 24, 2013 3:52am
Quoting Davit
Friday.Expecting some sell off so added another shortTotal 7 shorts {image}
Davit, could you explain your conviction about the pair going south - (this is in no way challenging your view or something) - the pair (as I see it) is showing a strong sustained trend up, it has hit a multi-months high and I notice that its upward thrusts are faster and stronger pips-wise than retracements down. Yet, you are adding shorts. I want to understand what it is that you see that I do not see. Thanks.
  • #3,683
  • May 24, 2013 6:41am May 24, 2013 6:41am
Quoting tweezer
The overall cycle for this pair is still upwards (1.09)..
Could you please stop posting garbage about cycle and all that crap.It is highly annoying specially when you even have numbers that historically not even reached since 2008 housing crash.
Post your orders or shut up about cycles.I have not seen single buy order from you!!!!
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #3,684
  • May 24, 2013 6:43am May 24, 2013 6:43am
Quoting MidnightRun
{quote}Davit, could you explain your conviction about the pair going south - (this is in no way challenging your view or something) - the pair (as I see it) is showing a strong sustained trend up, it has hit a multi-months high and I notice that its upward thrusts are faster and stronger pips-wise than retracements down. Yet, you are adding shorts. I want to understand what it is that you see that I do not see. Thanks.

let the cycle guy guide you to 1.09!!!ignore what I do.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #3,685
  • May 24, 2013 6:55am May 24, 2013 6:55am
Quoting Davit
{quote} let the cycle guy guide you to 1.09!!!ignore what I do.
Ruben,
Being rude to people is not what this thread is supposed to be about.
  • #3,686
  • May 24, 2013 9:39am May 24, 2013 9:39am
Quoting Davit
{quote}Could you please stop posting garbage about cycle and all that crap.It is highly annoying specially when you even have numbers that historically not even reached since 2008 housing crash.Post your orders or shut up about cycles.I have not seen single buy order from you!!!!
Sorry if I annoyed anyone. That was not my intention.
I will stop posting about it. Safe trading everyone.
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  • #3,687
  • May 24, 2013 12:50pm May 24, 2013 12:50pm
Quoting tweezer
{quote} Sorry if I annoyed anyone. That was not my intention. I will stop posting about it. Safe trading everyone. {image}

My problem with your posts are that you insist over and over again at certain numbers reached at exact date like you are God sent future Crystal Ball reader.
Nobody exactly knows what would happen next week let alone next month.We only make educated guesses "speculate" but that's all.
For price to reach 109 lot of fundamental factors must come in play and frankly I don't see that happening any time soon given US weak economy.Despite of slight improvement unemployment is still high and housing weak.
There are lot of other factors such as Gold,oil effecting the Canadian dollar hence probability of price reaching lower to 100 is greater then reaching 900pips above this number.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #3,688
  • May 24, 2013 1:22pm May 24, 2013 1:22pm
In Harmonic principle we could see price retrace to 38.2 250 area or classic full correction to 61.8 to 150 area
Either way opportunity to bank some pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #3,689
  • May 24, 2013 2:07pm May 24, 2013 2:07pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} My problem with your posts are that you insist over and over again at certain numbers reached at exact date like you are God sent future Crystal Ball reader.Nobody exactly knows what would happen next week let alone next month.We only make educated guesses "speculate" but that's all.For price to reach 109 lot of fundamental factors must come in play and frankly I don't see that happening any time soon given US weak economy.Despite of slight improvement unemployment is still high and housing weak.There are lot of other factors such as Gold,oil...
Points taken. I respect your fundamental and technical view of the market and I was too only providing a vantage point over what I understand from my analysis of time/price cycles. I do not claim that it will happen and hope traders will take them as reference points. I apologize if my posts sounded arrogant and too confident about future events. I will refrain from such posts in the future.
  • #3,690
  • May 24, 2013 4:15pm May 24, 2013 4:15pm
Quoting tweezer
{quote} Points taken. I respect your fundamental and technical view of the market and I was too only providing a vantage point over what I understand from my analysis of time/price cycles. I do not claim that it will happen and hope traders will take them as reference points. I apologize if my posts sounded arrogant and too confident about future events. I will refrain from such posts in the future.

Didnt sound arrogant to me, this is a discussion forum to share views and ideas. I read your charts and maybe me and you have a different stance on potential direction right now but thats why forex is very interesting to us all.

from what are you referencing with the idea of time and movement giving an indication of a target for price?

I might not understand but would at least be ineterested to at least know why you interpret as you do.
Money never sleeps...
  • #3,691
  • May 24, 2013 4:18pm May 24, 2013 4:18pm
Something to lift the tone

Listen to at least the first half of the song

Always reminds me of this song when two FF members disagree on future price action

Inserted Video
Money never sleeps...
  • #3,692
  • May 24, 2013 9:07pm May 24, 2013 9:07pm
Quoting inpatient
{quote} Didnt sound arrogant to me, this is a discussion forum to share views and ideas. I read your charts and maybe me and you have a different stance on potential direction right now but thats why forex is very interesting to us all. from what are you referencing with the idea of time and movement giving an indication of a target for price? I might not understand but would at least be ineterested to at least know why you interpret as you do.
It's basically a simplified method adopted from Gann's "law of vibration"
According to Gann, history repeats itself over and over again even in the market. In a nutshell, from top and bottom we predict the price meeting points or potentially the next top and bottom in the near future. The unique thing about this is the "time". When the "time" comes, the "event" must happen. If it does not happen, a different "event" will take place. The fundamental news only serve to fuel this "event" as it was already factored in the "events" to come.

This may sound absurd but at least it works for me
  • #3,693
  • May 24, 2013 11:18pm May 24, 2013 11:18pm
Kangaroo Hop + Pound Wobble = Loonie Flop..?
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  • #3,694
  • May 25, 2013 12:34pm May 25, 2013 12:34pm
Quoting tweezer
{quote} It's basically a simplified method adopted from Gann's "law of vibration"According to Gann, history repeats itself over and over again even in the market. In a nutshell, from top and bottom we predict the price meeting points or potentially the next top and bottom in the near future. The unique thing about this is the "time". When the "time" comes, the "event" must happen. If it does not happen, a different "event" will take place. The fundamental news only serve to fuel this "event" as it was already factored in the "events"...

Hi
I took some time to think to respond to you property.About Gann.Very little to no actual documentation exist proving he made millions from the markets.His estate was valued around 100k at his death.He was straggling as a trader in his late years.Lot of myths and vast fortunes he made are anecdotal.
His theories can be said to be true in general broad terms.For example you said "law of vibration" in simple terms we already know everything in nature is in motion from atoms, electrons,waves,pulse etc.We know the markets move and this fact should not come as a shock to anyone!Its the default.
What I strongly object people attributing esoteric concepts to basic natural laws in order to have an edge in markets.Does not exist.Gann.Donchian,Jesse Livermore stacked their orders to squeeze maximum profits from the trends.Each used basic supply and demand theory and in case of Jesse Livermore (my favorite trader) he very accurately pin pointed pivot points by reading the tape sometimes in weeks before even making a trade.
You said I quote "When the "time" comes, the "event" must happen. If it does not happen, a different "event" will take place." rather vague generic statement. That statement by default is 100% true but stating the obvious that either price moves up or down or turns sideways essentially states structure of the markets hence meaningless in terms of developing an edge.
Please be mindful of what you read.Closest thing I come to admire are Harmonic patterns even these can be misinterpreted grossly.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #3,695
  • May 26, 2013 2:16am May 26, 2013 2:16am
Quoting Davit
{quote} My problem with your posts are that you insist over and over again at certain numbers reached at exact date like you are God sent future Crystal Ball reader.Nobody exactly knows what would happen next week let alone next month.We only make educated guesses "speculate" but that's all.For price to reach 109 lot of fundamental factors must come in play and frankly I don't see that happening any time soon given US weak economy.Despite of slight improvement unemployment is still high and housing weak.There are lot of other factors such as Gold,oil...
Agree, If Ucad will ever gonna reach 1.09 it's gonna be a very long time from now.
It may go up coming week till 1.0445 but in June I foresee reversal.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #3,696
  • May 26, 2013 10:04am May 26, 2013 10:04am
Hi traders,

to each his own...what follows is my reading of the charts, and one that i intend to trade with reference to the longer TF's, such as the Weekly and Monthly. Basically, i have become bullish on this pair for the following reasons;

a) Mthly Chart - Price is making Higher Lows[HL's] and Higher Highs[HH's]
b) Mthly BB's has narrowed considerately which tells me that a breakout is imminent, and
c) that the most likely direction for this breakout will be up...Why Up ?... please read The definition of an UpTrend again as set out in point (a) above.

Here is the Monthly Chart::

Attached Image



and here's the Weekly Chart: The weekly chart shows the HH's and HL's much clearer than the Monthly.

Attached Image


i'm not in a long trade yet, as i will wait for a confirmation from the Weekly or Daily timeframes that the current Daily decline/retracement has ended.
  • #3,697
  • May 26, 2013 11:30am May 26, 2013 11:30am
Quoting Davit
{quote} HiI took some time to think to respond to you property.About Gann.Very little to no actual documentation exist proving he made millions from the markets.His estate was valued around 100k at his death.He was straggling as a trader in his late years.Lot of myths and vast fortunes he made are anecdotal.His theories can be said to be true in general broad terms.For example you said "law of vibration" in simple terms we already know everything in nature is in motion from atoms, electrons,waves,pulse etc.We know the markets move and this fact...
I'm glad we could talk this over. I'm in no position to challenge your view point, let alone prove that Gann's method is more superior. I only hope that we could all get along with different "beliefs" and "systems". Btw, Gann lost most of his fortunes at his later years due to his obsession with astrology.

Trading Gann can be both fun and tricky because it's about finding the next top and bottom in a given "time frame". A train can reach its destination in x time but due to unforeseen situations, it could be delayed. But nonetheless, it must reach its destination. Once the move has been confirmed, we analyse the possible time it will reach its destination by breaking down the journey into few stations (stops).

That's a simple metaphor I can think of. Of course , not all Gann traders trade or think alike. There are a dozen variations of the Gann trading method. Perhaps few has been developed every month like other systems. This might be my last post to explain myself. To traders out there, please trade based on your analysis and educated judgment of the market.
  • #3,698
  • May 26, 2013 4:18pm May 26, 2013 4:18pm
The price opened up below the trend line on the 1HR and 4HR time frame!! This could be a signal for heading south
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  • #3,699
  • May 26, 2013 4:24pm May 26, 2013 4:24pm
Quoting 50 Fils
The price opened up below the trend line on the 1HR and 4HR time frame!! This could be a signal for heading south {image}


I have noticed alot lately that whichever direction the market opens becomes a steady trend until London open
Money never sleeps...
  • #3,700
  • May 26, 2013 4:47pm May 26, 2013 4:47pm
Quoting inpatient
{quote} I have noticed alot lately that whichever direction the market opens becomes a steady trend until London open
My bias would be that the pair will go give a visit first to 1.0417, but then it will go into a reversal
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