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Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

Good night ladies and gentlemen. I'll check in tomorrow.
Quoting Seneca pilot
Ha ha, turned there instead. Should have thought of that. Oh well, took advantage of the GJ express elevator tonight anyway. {image} And look where that one lined up; {image}
That's more like it Junkie, nice trade good sir.
H.D
Quoting Hilar
{quote} That's more like it Junkie, nice trade good sir.
Buddy, When are you going to give live call? The whole thread is waiting for you.
Quoting kk007
{quote} Buddy, When are you going to give live call? The whole thread is waiting for you.
About the same time you change the name of the thread to ramblings of an Aussie no life.

They can wait..
H.D
Quoting Seneca pilot
I may still manage money but it will be accredited investors when and if I decide to proceed. Let's clear up some things. I trade normally somewhere between eight and twelve standard lots depending on stop size. I have little trouble getting in and out without moving anything. Now lets say I manage 25-30 million dollars. Now I have to move 100 times that size. I will start to have major problems with execution moving 800 to 1200 lots. I would be thrilled to average ten percent per month moving that size. It would be more likely that I would have...
Nice write-up Chris. Not to mention how the slippage and commissions will start to compound against you even after a short run given that size. Personally, I do not get why anybody would invest in a billion USD hedge fund, unless they had a very special edge.

As I mentioned before, there are ECN aggregators that let you trade 200 mill clips on E/U at a 4-5 pip spread. So even with 80-120 mill size you would be at a 2.5 pip spread. But getting out when liquidity dries up would be a nightmare. I remember you mentioned getting slipped badly when the JPYs crashed. Now imagine with 100 times that size.
Some interesting reading. Sharpe Signa LLC is managing 100 mill with very tight risk:

http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/04/01...bal-forex-team

http://www.activetradermag.com/index...f_Sharpe_Signa
Quoting fxterrapin
Some interesting reading. Sharpe Signa LLC is managing 100 mill with very tight risk: http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/04/01...bal-forex-team http://www.activetradermag.com/index...f_Sharpe_Signa
It is telling that as their fund has grown their returns have gone down. The article doesn't go into too much detail about the mechanics of their trading but I would guess that they do more long term trading than short. Your entries can be less than perfect when you are using targets of hundreds or thousands of pips and plan to hold a trade for weeks to months. Your entry long into UJ back in August or September last year could have been anywhere between 77.5 and 80 and still have been a huge winner with great risk reward if held all the way to 100.
500 million option in UJ at 101 and look where we are. Any chance this is a fake move down to lock in the strike?
Quoting Seneca pilot
500 million option in UJ at 101 and look where we are. Any chance this is a fake move down to lock in the strike?
I like your style
Quoting TantumVerum
{quote} I like your style
I am watching, thinking it may shoot up after the cut. I am not trading just watching. If the hold down is fake the stops should propel this up pretty hard.
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} I am watching, thinking it may shoot up after the cut. I am not trading just watching. If the hold down is fake the stops should propel this up pretty hard.
Meanwhile EU is setting up to test the Thursday high at exactly the same time and at the 2950ish level.
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} I am watching, thinking it may shoot up after the cut. I am not trading just watching. If the hold down is fake the stops should propel this up pretty hard.
I am feeling the other SP. Since you are just watching... I think this is being propped up above the level not pushed down.

If it comes back up after it may hit the stops to push down, not a lot under it (edit: to stop it below).
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} I am watching, thinking it may shoot up after the cut. I am not trading just watching. If the hold down is fake the stops should propel this up pretty hard.
Took a minute or three but off and running now.
Quoting TantumVerum
{quote} I am feeling the other SP. Since you are just watching... I think this is being propped up above the level not pushed down. If it comes back up after it may hit the stops to push down, not a lot under it (edit: to stop it below).
I am still guessing at this point. I am thinking the way to play these might be a breakout of the five minute bar that starts at ten AM. I wish there was some easy way to determine who was doing the artificial move. It is clearly a down day so maybe just assume that the day's move will continue and take a hit when that doesn't pan out. I haven't seen enough of these yet to do too much trading so I mostly just watch.

It would seem that the smart thing to do is just get in an hour or so before the cut and trade to it but there were 101.50's in play too so how to know which way to go is another problem. This is useful but I can see it is going to take some serious work to get anything consistent out of it.
Maybe 101 is fair value today.
Quoting TantumVerum
{quote} I am feeling the other SP. Since you are just watching... I think this is being propped up above the level not pushed down. If it comes back up after it may hit the stops to push down, not a lot under it (edit: to stop it below).
What did you see that told you artificial hold up or was it just that the day had been down to that point. I did notice that the positive dollar news did not cause price to move up so maybe there was a good clue there.
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} What did you see that told you artificial hold up or was it just that the day had been down to that point. I did notice that the positive dollar news did not cause price to move up so maybe there was a good clue there.
It is still trying to go up. The bottom of that five minute bar at the cut hasn't broken yet.
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} It is still trying to go up. The bottom of that five minute bar at the cut hasn't broken yet.
Going now?
Quoting Seneca pilot
Maybe 101 is fair value today.

Was starting to think the same with the US holiday weekend...

My reason for seeing the U/J propped up in the chart along with the session O & C's above and only the PDL below. Hope I am wrong cause I am in E/U right now with a protected position.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Quoting TantumVerum
{quote} Was starting to think the same with the US holiday weekend... My reason for seeing the U/J propped up in the chart along with the session O & C's above and only the PDL below. Hope I am wrong cause I am in E/U right now with a protected position.{image}
No fifteen minute bar has closed below the 10:00 cut price so I am still leaning toward price going up from here but UJ has been very wicky with small real bodies since 09:00 so really no direction at the moment.
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