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Ramblings of a Forex Junkie

  • #3,601
  • May 23, 2013 9:49am May 23, 2013 9:49am
Quoting kk007
{quote}Apart from SP, who else is in the top 5%? Hilar?As mmaker said, most people here are trading demo or micro account.As Hilar said "Give a live call and maybe you have some weight...".Talking elsewhere, even the phenomenal james16 on FF, there is no evidence that he actually trades himself.So, who else do you think is in the top 5% here?
I don't trade anywhere near the size SP apparently trades, and I haven't made a million dollars so I would not put myself in the 5%. Not yet

I think it's a valid question. If people put themselves up as capable traders and start leading people down a learning curve of course you want to know you're learning from the best. You can only ask though.

If you think of it from their perspective, they owe you nothing, you can always ask for a refund I guess! I remember when I started learning to trade all the crap I had to wade through. It sucked... but everything goes towards the experience.

I do consistently make money from the markets and my win rate is quite high, I am not here for the spot light , but if you want some advice it would be this;

There is a right side of the market and a wrong side
There are good prices and bad prices (this is key)
Control your risk and let the market do its thing
Try and stay on the right side for as long as possible
The biggest risk to your account is yourself.
If you're not feeling it, just don't trade.


You can apply that philosophy to any strategy you use.
H.D
  • #3,602
  • May 23, 2013 9:51am May 23, 2013 9:51am
Trying to guess why SP shorted the dollaryen at today's Japan open. There was no trigger other than getting near the last US session day high of 103.73, but the short would be at best 103.5.

Hmmm...
  • #3,603
  • May 23, 2013 9:59am May 23, 2013 9:59am
Quoting Hilar
{quote} I don't trade anywhere near the size SP apparently trades, and I haven't made a million dollars so I would not put myself in the 5%. Not yet I think it's a valid question. If people put themselves up as capable traders and start leading people down a learning curve of course you want to know you're learning from the best. You can only ask though. If you think of it from their perspective, they owe you nothing, you can always ask for a refund I guess! I remember when I started learning to trade all the crap I had to wade through. It sucked......
If you rarely lose, why not increase your lot size exponentially? You will soon became a billionaire . Imagine if you can make just 4% a day, you can end up making 18000 times your initial capital after only 1 year of trading. Don't constrain yourself by the limited beliefs that you have. You can make it. Sure!!!
  • #3,604
  • May 23, 2013 10:13am May 23, 2013 10:13am
Quoting kk007
{quote}If you rarely lose, why not increase your lot size exponentially? You will soon became a billionaire . Imagine if you can make just 4% a day, you can end up making 18000 times your initial capital after only 1 year of trading. Don't constrain yourself by the limited beliefs that you have. You can make it. Sure!!!
That's always the temptation. But it's unsustainable for more reasons than I'm willing to go into. Your focus there is on the reward. By the time I've added to my trades over the day my margin is usually maxed out anyway.
H.D
  • #3,605
  • May 23, 2013 10:28am May 23, 2013 10:28am
A question;

How many of you refused to buy here because of the failure yesterday at the Tuesday high? This is what you have to overcome to have success. One trade failure means nothing.
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  • #3,606
  • May 23, 2013 10:37am May 23, 2013 10:37am
Quoting Seneca pilot
A question; How many of you refused to buy here because of the failure yesterday at the Tuesday high? This is what you have to overcome to have success. One trade failure means nothing. {image}
To be honest, I think I need to backtesting more personally.
  • #3,607
  • May 23, 2013 11:00am May 23, 2013 11:00am
Quoting mmaker
{quote}What do you mean by "because of the failure yesterday at Tuesday High?" Was it a long trade or a short trade? Tuesday's High is either 1.29327 or 1.29379 depending on how you define it, but Wednesday's movements exceeded that level and then came back down sharply into Thursday. It's very far away from 1.28237 that you are pointing to. What is the "failure" about?

Would you allow a stop loss of more than 60pip for yesterday setup?
  • #3,608
  • May 23, 2013 11:13am May 23, 2013 11:13am
Quoting mmaker
{quote}What do you mean by "because of the failure yesterday at Tuesday High?" Was it a long trade or a short trade? Tuesday's High is either 1.29327 or 1.29379 depending on how you define it, but Wednesday's movements exceeded that level and then came back down sharply into Thursday. It's very far away from 1.28237 that you are pointing to. What is the "failure" about?
Tuesday's high was 1.2938. Selling there yesterday resulted in a stop out. Would you have let that affect the decision to take the first trade today which was a buy at the Wednesday low?

And yes the proper trade Wednesday was the long off NY close from Tuesday.
  • #3,609
  • May 23, 2013 11:26am May 23, 2013 11:26am
Quoting mmaker
{quote}If I had taken that short and stopped out, that's that trade. It's either a 0.3% loss or 1% loss per trade, depending on your risk profile. I don't see any relation to any new setup I find today, if it was to buy the Asian low at 1.28234. I still don't see how that trade so far away from this trade has anything to do with each other. Maybe I don't understand what you wanted to ask. I'll let other people answer you. Sorry to step in so early. It's very confusing.
That is the point of the question. A loss is just that and nothing more as long as we are following our method. The reason that so many fail at trading is that they cannot continue to properly execute a method after one or two losses. They begin to doubt themselves and skip "risky" looking entries. Taking a long this morning after the price movement yesterday is certainly a tough and "risky" looking trade that I am sure most people would have skipped thinking price "had" to go further down.
  • #3,610
  • May 23, 2013 11:45am May 23, 2013 11:45am
Quoting mmaker
{quote}I know you are trying to teach and help struggling traders. But your assumptions about what "most people" think is rather biased. I did not take the EU buy at 2:30amET because AU fell under Asian low, and Yen pairs were falling hard, and I didn't think the EU double bottom would hold, and decided to sit aside. You wanted to make a point of letting the previous trade affect the next trade, it is more relevant if you chose an example that has two valid setups close by within the session or even within the hour, when the same general trend...
I may be biased but I think You will have to agree that I am correct given your explanation of why you would not have taken the trade. The example is totally valid and relevant. Selling at the Tuesday high was a failed trade for anyone who took it. It was a reasonable trade to sell there even though the first trade of the day was a long. Now the next day we have an opportunity to buy the previous day low. Many, if not most people would skip that trade given the loss from the previous day and the rather large and fast price move yesterday afternoon. I am trying to get to people and convince them that faithfully following their method is crucially important. Buying at the Wednesday low this morning although hard is crucial to making this particular method work.
  • #3,611
  • May 23, 2013 11:49am May 23, 2013 11:49am
Selling the Tuesday and Wednesday low here. Probably my last trade for the week. Let's see how this goes.

EDIT: It's also the weekly open.
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  • #3,612
  • May 23, 2013 12:20pm May 23, 2013 12:20pm
Quoting mmaker
I'm sorry but you just confused the heck of me and I had to say these. Here's a valid Seneca Pilot setup, short EJ at 131.946. {image}
dude, unless you are in close contact with helicopter Ben, Goldman Suchs or the Central Bankers, it's a PROBABILITY GAME, NOTHING MORE NOTHING LESS
in the meantime you need to control those inner demons, STAY COOL and keep drawing those lines..... :nerd:
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  • #3,613
  • May 23, 2013 12:23pm May 23, 2013 12:23pm
Quoting mmaker
{quote}Your ego and sense of superiority has apparently taken over your reasonings. I will not stand in the way between you and your loyal followers. Good bye from me, and no more questions from me.
mmaker, CALM DOWN, control those inner demons!!!!! do you chose the red pill or the blue pill?????????

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  • #3,614
  • May 23, 2013 12:28pm May 23, 2013 12:28pm
Last one for the road before I hit the meths again
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  • #3,615
  • May 23, 2013 1:13pm May 23, 2013 1:13pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
Selling the Tuesday and Wednesday low here. Probably my last trade for the week. Let's see how this goes. EDIT: It's also the weekly open. {image}
By the way it's also a 50% fibo of the MONTHLY chart... I mean Chris, this could be the ultimate test of you new skill of holding a trade for a longer period...

The potencial is there for sure

Good luck
"Always be yourself " Batman
  • #3,616
  • May 23, 2013 1:25pm May 23, 2013 1:25pm
Quoting rdsl
{quote} By the way it's also a 50% fibo of the MONTHLY chart... I mean Chris, this could be the ultimate test of you new skill of holding a trade for a longer period... The potencial is there for sure Good luck
My thinking right now is that it has a pretty decent chance of stopping out. I took some off at 25 pips and will basically break even if it stops out now. There are two very important speeches tonight that may affect the Euro and the Yen so I won't play with too much fire. I will ride it down with a small piece if it falls. Draghi will generally talk down the Euro but Kuroda will probably drive down the yen. Anything can happen with this pair at this point.
  • #3,617
  • May 23, 2013 11:01pm May 23, 2013 11:01pm
Quoting Seneca pilot
{quote} My thinking right now is that it has a pretty decent chance of stopping out. I took some off at 25 pips and will basically break even if it stops out now. There are two very important speeches tonight that may affect the Euro and the Yen so I won't play with too much fire. I will ride it down with a small piece if it falls. Draghi will generally talk down the Euro but Kuroda will probably drive down the yen. Anything can happen with this pair at this point.
That one went out at BE.

This is really the last trade for the week. Love my express elevator.
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  • #3,618
  • May 23, 2013 11:06pm May 23, 2013 11:06pm
Semper Fi. Shoot me a PM and I will teach you that trade. You will find it goes well with your chosen trading schedule.
  • #3,619
  • May 23, 2013 11:17pm May 23, 2013 11:17pm
Quoting rdsl
{quote} By the way it's also a 50% fibo of the MONTHLY chart... I mean Chris, this could be the ultimate test of you new skill of holding a trade for a longer period... The potencial is there for sure Good luck
That fifty might hold but I would need a MUCH bigger stop.
  • #3,620
  • May 23, 2013 11:23pm May 23, 2013 11:23pm
Ha ha, turned there instead. Should have thought of that. Oh well, took advantage of the GJ express elevator tonight anyway.

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And look where that one lined up;

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