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  • #799,641
  • May 21, 2013 9:41am May 21, 2013 9:41am
Quoting calinux
Hei guys, I'm beginner in forex trading and currently I have a short position on EUR/USD from Friday at 1.2820 when I thought it will go to 1.2780.... What should I do? Should I close it and take the loss or keep waiting for and eventual 1.28 breakthrough?
If you had a trade plan and traded your plan, with your target profit being +40 pips (2820->2780) - why did you let the position turn -70 pips red ? Learn about risk control, stop loss orders and money management. Research on the concept of risk/reward. For starters, never risk to loose more than you have your preplanned profit target. From there - aspire towards a trading style that allows risking 1 unit of loss, to make/target at least 3-4 units of profit, or more.

personally I'd close this reckless trade at the market here, for -30..-40, while I still can - but that's me, you can continue on hope if you wish. Won't float long on hopes in this profession however...
Patience, persistence and probabilities.
  • #799,642
  • May 21, 2013 9:42am May 21, 2013 9:42am
Quoting maximinus
{quote} Target reached.
The next one is at 98.48.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #799,643
  • May 21, 2013 9:42am May 21, 2013 9:42am
Other than that, these large 30-50 pips moves could show the market is ready to turn.. We only need the selling climax.. I don't see that yet.
  • #799,644
  • May 21, 2013 9:44am May 21, 2013 9:44am
Quoting attila
{quote} I think bitches will want a LL of their own. either before or after lse close.
It may depend on this h1 close...volume is big on a reversal candle, not good for bears unless 74 is the roof once again.

I just don't like the way it bounced up
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #799,645
  • May 21, 2013 9:44am May 21, 2013 9:44am
Quoting fibstalker
The S&P500 started profit taking right at the 1,593 highs, second target of the larger move started in November last year. Scenario 1. The up-move in the stock index has not ended, but just paused. The next long setup and strong participation on the upside can be found starting at the 1,526 area. If price never moves below the 1,508 level we could witness a continuation higher in the summer into the 1,624 first target, and even higher into the 1,675 level.
Hello all, a quick update to the S&P500.
In my last review I mentioned a resumed move higher in the 1526 area but that came at a higher level:four points above at the 1530 (see in the below video a potential explanation for that). Anyway we are seeing price very close to that 1675 area of second target. I believe the target came at 1671, although we could still see 1677 area.

Let me show you my current perspective. The setup long showing participation at 1530 in mid of April (see picture below) hit the first target in the 1623 area and then the 1671 second target. I don't anticipate higher prices straight away now and the S&P500 could see profit taking. Price could stretch as high as 1677 area before we see a move lower. The reason for the 1677 level is explained on the video in my blog.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1369146193



These are the scenarios I could anticipate for the S&P500 going forward:

Scenario 1. Price corrects into the next support and long setup at the 1632 area (with a stop below 1622) and then continue higher into previous highs at 1670s or even continue into the first and second targets respectively at 1689 and 1719.

Scenario 2a. If participation on the long side does not show up at around the 1632 area and price dips below 1620, we could witness a swift move lower into the next area of support where Program Trading will pick up price. That is down at the 1454 area.

Scenario 2b. We could still see a bounce at the 1632 area and then current highs retested and then a swift move lower. The trigger, again, will be price piercing below the 1620 level.

You can find a better explanation of these scenarios in my last blog's post: http://elitefive.wordpress.com/2013/...lish-language/

Please let me have your ideas and suggestions.
Thank you

-fibstalker
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #799,646
  • May 21, 2013 9:45am May 21, 2013 9:45am
Today's target (30 Pips) has been achieved. See you guys at London session.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: untitled.JPG Size: 157 KB
Love for all; Hatred for none.
  • #799,647
  • May 21, 2013 9:48am May 21, 2013 9:48am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} It may depend on this h1 close...volume is big on a reversal candle, not good for bears unless 74 is the roof once again. I just don't like the way it bounced up
the fix maybe
  • #799,648
  • May 21, 2013 9:48am May 21, 2013 9:48am
Quoting attila
Other than that, these large 30-50 pips moves could show the market is ready to turn.. We only need the selling climax.. I don't see that yet.
I was waiting for that as well....a squeeze down, it didn't happen.

Or they just have been accumulated since friday and ready to go up now.

Who knows, maybe the sellng climax was the move down below 1,2800 on friday
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #799,649
  • May 21, 2013 9:50am May 21, 2013 9:50am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} I was waiting for that as well....a squeeze down, it didn't happen. Or they just have been accumulated since friday and ready to go up now. Who knows, maybe the sellng climax was the move down below 1,2800 on friday
It should have gone straight up in that case, but it's bumping on all small TF resistances in can find..
  • #799,650
  • May 21, 2013 9:55am May 21, 2013 9:55am
Quoting attila
{quote} It should have gone straight up in that case, but it's bumping on all small TF resistances in can find..
True, i am seeing the same thing, and it leads to new 5mn low, but they are all bought (weak)

I should have been a buyer already, but bounces look weak. I haven't found a strong bull on the bottom (maybe on m1 but it sucks).

I guess it'll fly without me if it does
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #799,651
  • May 21, 2013 10:01am May 21, 2013 10:01am
Quoting attila
Other than that, these large 30-50 pips moves could show the market is ready to turn.. We only need the selling climax.. I don't see that yet.
I'm looking for a similar thing, but not yet - not until the very end of a multi-week 5-wave structure... Which, by my analysis, has not cooked up yet as I'm looking at a possible 3rd wave of the current downtrend (off 3242 high) - thus, a viable scenario is it "rolls higher" from here (perhaps to ~2950) to gather some fuel (4th wave), which ignites that one last selloff impulse, killing the recent lows as well as the april's double bottom (eg 2750 area) - finishing off the 5-wave at these fresh lows along a selling climax... that would be the perfect setup for a multi-week reversal. That's just how I see it.
Patience, persistence and probabilities.
  • #799,652
  • May 21, 2013 10:02am May 21, 2013 10:02am
Quoting calinux
Hei guys, I'm beginner in forex trading and currently I have a short position on EUR/USD from Friday at 1.2820 when I thought it will go to 1.2780.... What should I do? Should I close it and take the loss or keep waiting for and eventual 1.28 breakthrough?
Surprise surprise, must be the 5000th time I have read similar post.
It should say, I sold a low, with no sl and now im in the poop, asking any old wise owl on this forum is not going to save your ass

You have some options
1. Close it, take a loss instantly
2. Leave it and hope it goes back to 2780 and close it,
3. Leave it and it keeps climbing and you will take a loss
4. Hedge it and hope it retests the lows close it and then rallies, to the long hedge, then close
All option sucks, sorry,
Whatever you decide, and only you can decide, if you dont learn from this fukup, give up and keep your day job
Go www.babypips.com and learn money management, dont ever ever enter a trade withou calculating "exactly " what you are prepared to risk / lose, and neven ever trade without a stop loss
Even if pa went back and your trade turned green, without accepting was stuffup, you will never survive forex, she gobble and spit out such green horns at will
Twice she been back to this weeks open 2842, could have reduced your exposure,


Anyway sorry you in this position, we all been there, and its not nice,
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #799,653
  • May 21, 2013 10:04am May 21, 2013 10:04am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} True, i am seeing the same thing, and it leads to new 5mn low, but they are all bought (weak) I should have been a buyer already, but bounces look weak. I haven't found a strong bull on the bottom (maybe on m1 but it sucks). I guess it'll fly without me if it does
There's also nothing fundamental to move it back up.. It's been down for almost 2 weeks now.. Maybe the bernak tomorrow will do the trick.
  • #799,654
  • May 21, 2013 10:06am May 21, 2013 10:06am
So what we have here.

H1 closed in the green...reversal candle, hh, hl and higher close...a bullish engulfing one with highest vol of the day.

But the thing is it ended up right at the resistance and below 74 mark...plus the fact the bounce was weak (to me)..

Now make your bet...
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #799,655
  • May 21, 2013 10:08am May 21, 2013 10:08am
Quoting attila
{quote} There's also nothing fundamental to move it back up.. It's been down for almost 2 weeks now.. Maybe the bernak tomorrow will do the trick.
I just looked at FF calendar for tomorrow....only orange/red news...bloody day!
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #799,656
  • May 21, 2013 10:09am May 21, 2013 10:09am
Quoting RsX
{quote} I'm looking for a similar thing, but not yet - not until the very end of a multi-week 5-wave structure... Which, by my analysis, has not cooked up yet as I'm looking at a possible 3rd wave of the current downtrend (off 3242 high) - thus, a viable scenario is it "rolls higher" from here (perhaps to ~2950) to gather some fuel (4th wave), which ignites that one last selloff impulse, killing the recent lows as well as the april's double bottom (eg 2750 area) - finishing off the 5-wave at these fresh lows along a selling climax... that would...
the only number that bothers me is 2950. for me, if it goes there is bullish short term, and I can see above 1.32 if that's the case.. (with a possible resumption down, but once there.. all bets are off).
  • #799,657
  • May 21, 2013 10:13am May 21, 2013 10:13am
Quoting calinux
Hei guys, I'm beginner in forex trading and currently I have a short position on EUR/USD from Friday at 1.2820 when I thought it will go to 1.2780.... What should I do? Should I close it and take the loss or keep waiting for and eventual 1.28 breakthrough?
Hello Calinux,
I think the advices you have received are quite good.
In general I would say that when in doubt you should exit. Doing differently sets up up for hoping.
And hoping is a no,no for trading.

That said (in my opinion) the Euro has swing targets into the 1.2530 area (again my opinion, not a sure thing).
I see resistance at these levels/area. Try to reason how shocking would be for you to them: 1.2912, 1.2994, 1.3019 before price could resume lower.

Hope it helps.
Good luck.

Ciao
-fibstalker
G.
"markets traded by programs/HFT offer a significant trading edge..."
  • #799,658
  • May 21, 2013 10:19am May 21, 2013 10:19am
Quoting attila
{quote} the only number that bothers me is 2950. for me, if it goes there is bullish short term, and I can see above 1.32 if that's the case.. (with a possible resumption down, but once there.. all bets are off).
1.3020 that was, typo.
  • #799,659
  • May 21, 2013 10:23am May 21, 2013 10:23am
those godamn bastards
  • #799,660
  • May 21, 2013 10:24am May 21, 2013 10:24am
Let's forget about the bears now...full bull to 1,296x first.

Bastards, they didn't let me in

EDIT : hmm 1,286x is at risk as well. Better not trade until tomorrow
COT: The precious data ignored
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