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Trading Made Simple

  • #19,481
  • May 20, 2013 7:49am May 20, 2013 7:49am
Quoting Blueman1887
Just spent some time backtesting EU. Took 100 trades between 1st Jan 2010 and 18 March 2011 I used the following rules: Time Frame 4H Entered on TDI cross Only entered in direction of Daily Trend SL at ATR X 2 TP1 at ATR X 2 ..........................
Excellent work Blueman.

Just one question: You said: "Only entered in direction of Daily Trend" Please explain how you decide/determine what the Daily Trend is.

Regards
  • #19,482
  • May 20, 2013 8:27am May 20, 2013 8:27am
Quoting dee50
courtesy of forexlive.com "concepts in technical analysis" a handbook of the basics. Merrill lynch. Covers the basics of trend, momentum and other technical indicators and methods. {image}
gracias dee 50 good book

have a nice trading
  • #19,483
  • May 20, 2013 8:43am May 20, 2013 8:43am
Hi Boerseun

By looking at the PA on the daily charts, the number of candles, candle strenght etc to determine the strenght of the trend, I found that where the TMS system is weakest is when the trend has become
rangebound, you will see this in the examples Big E has showen.

Regards

Blueman
  • #19,484
  • May 20, 2013 8:58am May 20, 2013 8:58am
Quoting Blueman1887
Hi Boerseun By looking at the PA on the daily charts, the number of candles, candle strenght etc to determine the strenght of the trend, I found that where the TMS system is weakest is when the trend has become rangebound, you will see this in the examples Big E has showen. Regards Blueman
Thanx Blueman
  • #19,485
  • May 20, 2013 9:13am May 20, 2013 9:13am
Quoting Blueman1887
Just spent some time backtesting EU. Took 100 trades between 1st Jan 2010 and 18 March 2011 I used the following rules: Time Frame 4H Entered on TDI cross Only entered in direction of Daily Trend SL at ATR X 2 TP1 at ATR X 2 TP2 at ATR X 4 I exited when TDI crossed in other direction at close of that candle which meant it a lot of cases I could have been more profitable. Results were: Trades 100 Win 73 Loss 25 BE 2 Pips Profit 5,054 Biggest Winner 218 Biggest Loser 120 No SL's were hit While only 13 TP2's were hit. I now plan to back test from 1st...
Thank you for sharing your work !!
could you clarify for me... you show 25 losses but say no SL were hit. So the losses came from exiting the trade, wherever price was, at the time of the opposing TDI cross, correct? Thanks again.
  • #19,486
  • May 20, 2013 9:15am May 20, 2013 9:15am
Quoting Blueman1887
Just spent some time backtesting EU. Took 100 trades between 1st Jan 2010 and 18 March 2011 I used the following rules: Time Frame 4H Entered on TDI cross Only entered in direction of Daily Trend SL at ATR X 2 TP1 at ATR X 2 TP2 at ATR X 4 I exited when TDI crossed in other direction at close of that candle which meant it a lot of cases I could have been more profitable. Results were: Trades 100 Win 73 Loss 25 BE 2 Pips Profit 5,054 Biggest Winner 218 Biggest Loser 120 No SL's were hit While only 13 TP2's were hit. I now plan to back test from 1st...
How do you define daily trend?

Do you use any software or self written script or was it just a visual back-test?

Cheers!
M.
Remember I'm a newbie!
  • #19,487
  • May 20, 2013 10:35am May 20, 2013 10:35am
Nagaero

No SL was hit although a couple got very close. I exited manually on the close of the bar where the TDI crossed in the opposite direction to when I entered the trade. In most cases this is a lot later than the system rules (i.e when the TDI hooks back up) so my results are a little conservitive, as if I had exited earlier the loss would have been less and some would have resulted in a profit.

Mierzyk

I defined the trend, by looking for at least three daily candles in the same direction, I would also look at the size of the candles.

I did not use any script, it was a visual backtest which was very painstaking but I would recommend this to anyone as you get a good feel for the currency pair and how the system works.

Regards


Blueman
  • #19,488
  • May 20, 2013 11:12am May 20, 2013 11:12am
http://charts.mql5.com/1/596/usdcad-h4-ironfx-financial-services-3.png
http://charts.mql5.com/1/596/usdcad-...services-3.png
http://charts.mql5.com/1/596/eurgbp-h4-ironfx-financial-services.png
http://charts.mql5.com/1/596/eurgbp-...l-services.png
http://charts.mql5.com/1/596/eurcad-h4-ironfx-financial-services.png
http://charts.mql5.com/1/596/eurcad-...l-services.png

some possible trades

any comment to correct
  • #19,489
  • May 20, 2013 11:13am May 20, 2013 11:13am
Quoting Blueman1887
Just spent some time backtesting EU. Took 100 trades between 1st Jan 2010 and 18 March 2011 I used the following rules: Time Frame 4H Entered on TDI cross Only entered in direction of Daily Trend SL at ATR X 2 TP1 at ATR X 2 TP2 at ATR X 4 I exited when TDI crossed in other direction at close of that candle which meant it a lot of cases I could have been more profitable. Results were: Trades 100 Win 73 Loss 25 BE 2 Pips Profit 5,054 Biggest Winner 218 Biggest Loser 120 No SL's were hit While only 13 TP2's were hit. I now plan to back test from 1st...
Very nice job Blueman....
Few months ago I did same with four currience pairs, all together as far as I remeber 300-400 trades. Still during weekends I do some testing.
As you mentioned you are doing this manually, with F12 button??
To determine trend I was using 200EMA and was taking only trades with the tren, below 200EMA short, above longs, very good fun anyway...
Best Regards
JacekPreserve Precious Capital
  • #19,490
  • May 20, 2013 11:31am May 20, 2013 11:31am
Thanks Jacub

I read somewhere you should do approx 300 trades per currency pair testing before going live with that pair.

So only another 200 trades for EU

Regards

Blueman
  • #19,491
  • May 20, 2013 1:27pm May 20, 2013 1:27pm
Good job Blueman,

What period did you have the ATR set at?Im kinda doin the same thing you did right now with the
ATR set at period 7.

Also,Are you using the mt4 simulator?

I also like exiting when the TDI crosses back in the other direction.It helps me to let the trade run longer.By doing this though,you were very correct that some trades do go negative that would have been possitive if you would have exited when the TDI hooked,flat,etc..

Great job

Cmorecrds
  • #19,492
  • May 20, 2013 1:53pm May 20, 2013 1:53pm
TMS Traders,

I have a problem with TDI ... I am using forex.com metatrader .

the lines of the TDI not move with the current movement of the price ...

even when a new candle open ... the lines of the TDI still remain same till I manually change the time frame and return back to the time frame .. then I will see that the TDI changed !!

any help please ?
  • #19,493
  • May 20, 2013 3:28pm May 20, 2013 3:28pm
Quoting Baayesh
TMS Traders, I have a problem with TDI ... I am using forex.com metatrader . the lines of the TDI not move with the current movement of the price ... even when a new candle open ... the lines of the TDI still remain same till I manually change the time frame and return back to the time frame .. then I will see that the TDI changed !! any help please ?
try this!

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...mentid=1188911
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #19,494
  • May 20, 2013 7:36pm May 20, 2013 7:36pm
Quoting thewriter30
Hi Emanuel, Thanks again for that pdf. And thanks to whoever put this info together!. Some question for you whenever you find the time to answer (or anybody that can help for that matter) Wait for green to CROSS RED and open your trade at the beginning of the new candle... usually candle 1 or 2. Catch the momentum... Up or down? Does it matter if it cross the red up or downwards? or just a cross would suffice? I love taking short trades off the 68 line or just below and long trades long off the 32 line area... made tons of pips when that opportunity presents itself... should the green and red line be below the middle line (50) in the TDI chart for longs and vice versa for shorts? He says he loves that but not sure if it is a must. Probably is.... If the green line looks like it's at a 2-4 angle... it's weak. Pass on it. Not sure about the way to measure, see the angle in the chart. HA color matters? I think it does and should be blue for long and red for short, just wanted to confirm.? It does not say so in the pdf (or maybe i am blind!) ema... shows direction currently... only wanting to enter on candle 1 or two. I noticed the template comes with MA not EMA... If I enter a trade lets say and I'm monitoring the trade and its up 50 pips but suddenly it pulls back 10-15 pips I just exit. I think this is the toughest to understand. If he trusted the system to work overnight, why the rush to exit when it goes against him when awake? just trying to understand.... If the questions are silly I apologise, and feel free to point me to baby pips or tell me if they were answered many times already. I shall search for them. Cheers Hernan EDIT: I added the chart you provided. I was wondering how would you avoid getting long in the losing trade I circled? I have seen many false signals on this chart, but pointed that one only {image}
Quoting thewriter30
Hi Emmanuel et al. Good evening. Just wanted to check if you got a chance to look at the other questions I have. Thanks a lot HeR

Hi Hernan,

sorry I am very busy and do not have time to answer each question in detail.
there is no generic answer to questions because as there is some discretion how Big E trade. I have my own discretion each time I look at my charts. The better way is to post charts and highlight questions on the charts.

most questions were either been asked and answered by Big E for example in post 769 .
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...57#post4583257

TMS only uses the TDI PL Green TSL Red lines.
However, other experienced traders also use the Yellow MBL and the Volatility Band VB.

I must stress again that TMS is trend trading method. When market is narrow ranged sideway, results will not be good and this when we can still take the H4 TDI cross and grab a few pips (like scalping the H4 TDI cross)

Sideway market type as I had posted before can be trade when we using the channelling technique. When we trade within the channels, we will keep in rhythm with the market until it breakouts again into a trend.

Hope this answer adequately and when you have a specific scenario, please post a chart along with that question.

Thank you.

EMMANUEL



.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #19,495
  • May 20, 2013 7:52pm May 20, 2013 7:52pm
Quoting Blueman1887
Just spent some time backtesting EU. Took 100 trades between 1st Jan 2010 and 18 March 2011 I used the following rules: Time Frame 4H Entered on TDI cross Only entered in direction of Daily Trend SL at ATR X 2 TP1 at ATR X 2 TP2 at ATR X 4 I exited when TDI crossed in other direction at close of that candle which meant it a lot of cases I could have been more profitable. Results were: Trades 100 Win 73 Loss 25 BE 2 Pips Profit 5,054 Biggest Winner 218 Biggest Loser 120 No SL's were hit While only 13 TP2's were hit. I now plan to back test from 1st...

Blueman,

Good back-testing results and thank you for sharing this nice piece of work.

From your own back-testing you have learn a lot more and can you can work on and think of how to build a winning system using TMS as the core method.

Few things which you can look into:

1) Improve initial SL using market volatility and technical stops. ATR is good.

2) Placement of initial SL and position sizing and using R and R-Multiple..

3) Using multi-lot entry and with multiple exits. This will improve win rate and help reduce initial trade risk.

4) Think of how to "Let Profit Run" in trade exit management.

5) Work on a strategic way on how to scale-in more trades with banked-in profits in a trend breakout situation. This will increase profit$. Think like an investor, Trade like an investor.

Good job.

Good Trading ahead.

EMMANUEL
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #19,496
  • May 20, 2013 11:09pm May 20, 2013 11:09pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.jpg Size: 111 KB


Just bought USD/JPY.

Instead of Stoch I used WPR ( Williams Percent Range ).
  • #19,497
  • May 20, 2013 11:12pm May 20, 2013 11:12pm
Quoting eelfranz
Dean... Your questions: I've answered all these questions several times. Next time YOU run them all down and put them in one post like below... thanks... When assessing an entry, do you simply take that entry based on the TDI and nothing more?? as in I guess these would be technical entries....do you not take fundamentals/news/announcements into account?? I look at everything... last hi/lo, last reversal strength, candle size, Is Stitch's confirming, Is it candle 1 or 2... everything... TDI gives me the signal.. it's my job to check out the rest......
the above post#769 is one of the important one which answers to FAQ. Go back and read that post and those posts before that.

you need to do the rest as eelfranz said in his post.

The rest includes your preparation work for trading every week and every day before you start looking for 4H setups.

Doing a Big Picture plan and having a trade plan every week/every day is the prep work.

Are you ready for trading today? Just look at EU and GU. These two will be your 100pips for this week.


Good Trading ahead!
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #19,498
  • May 20, 2013 11:16pm May 20, 2013 11:16pm
Any advice appreciated

Price has been ranging for a week. Support at 131.

A round number

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpydaily.png Size: 36 KB
  • #19,499
  • May 20, 2013 11:19pm May 20, 2013 11:19pm
Quoting gigitranza
{image} Just bought USD/JPY. Instead of Stoch I used WPR ( Williams Percent Range ).

using WPR to show pullback entry on H1... that's clever.

Good trade as I see.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #19,500
  • May 20, 2013 11:30pm May 20, 2013 11:30pm
i tried to do a fib expansion. correct? Picked swing high at 127.53


Dont know if I shold do fib projections on H1 because of the big candle sunday opening.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpydaily.png Size: 36 KB
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