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Trading Made Simple

  • #19,461
  • May 20, 2013 12:25am May 20, 2013 12:25am
Quoting Armacom
I made my Big Picture planning for EUR/USD for next week. Any comments are welcome {file}

Hi Armacom,

This is a good Big Picture done. You have several historical S&R identified. What I would usually do it to see these historical S&R on my H4 charts and look for PA around CONFLUENCE of these historical S&R with Prev W Fib, OHLC and RN.
Two key support are 1.2800 and 1.2670. Also March Close and April Open is something I will look closely at for PA around these levels.
I will also look out when Asian session is very narrow range and to trade the breakouts on H1.

Trade Well and many pips this week.

Regards,
EMMANUEL
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #19,462
  • May 20, 2013 12:32am May 20, 2013 12:32am
Quoting Greenb
My big picture for EJ this week The technical part: on monthly TF the price level we have right now is exactly at 50% retrace from the huge bear that drives EJ from 168 to 94. The fundamental part: "“it’s being said that the correction of the strong yen is largely completed. If the yen keeps on weakening a lot more, it will have a negative impact on peoples’ lives.”" from Japan economic minister. Also notice the huge spike the moment market open from 131.83 to 130.85 Key level i will be looking at is 132.00 level as that...
EJ:
This week will be exciting to test how Abeconomics will work with so many key news and data releases. Investors confidence definitely has returned to Japan. The Euro Union will not be sitting still and see such a strong Euro so there will be action which can result in major correction. We don't know this for sure but the smart money will play on market fear and greed even more in situation like this. Today there will be less inter-bank trading as many big banks are closed for holidays. The weekend gap down is telling us something..... 131.80 is fib50% of last week H-L.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #19,463
  • May 20, 2013 12:33am May 20, 2013 12:33am
Folks....

Most of the banks have holiday today, still its worth watching these divergence..... Interestingly the TDI is crossing from Over Sold/Bought areas.

Good Luck
PIPstar
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  • #19,464
  • Edited 1:25am May 20, 2013 12:43am | Edited 1:25am
Quoting thewriter30
Hi Emanuel, Thanks again for that pdf. And thanks to whoever put this info together!. Some question for you whenever you find the time to answer (or anybody that can help for that matter) Wait for green to CROSS RED and open your trade at the beginning of the new candle... usually candle 1 or 2. Catch the momentum... Up or down? Does it matter if it cross the red up or downwards? or just a cross would suffice? I love taking short trades off the 68 line or just below and long trades long off the 32 line area... made tons of pips when that opportunity...
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1368954248

How to have avoided that trade shown in your chart above?

Well,
1) what is the Day and Weekly candle show?

2) to get into a Sell trade entry, I want to see H > L > LH > LL . I don't see LH .

3) There is no bearish reversal CS pattern for me to pick that APB/HA as sell entry. Not to mention where are the support and resistance levels to consider for any trade setup.

regards,

EMMANUEL
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #19,465
  • May 20, 2013 1:03am May 20, 2013 1:03am
Quoting Armacom
{quote} Look at the picture I uploaded under and above the grey lines you have candles with long upper and lower wicks ( in proportion to the candles ) means to me that buyers and sellers don't know what to do. Market is waiting, so so should we too. There was consolidation between the yellow lines, continues to your candle, I would only take the trade if I see a stron candle showing me POWER from sellers or buyers Hope this helps, maybe I'm wrong, somebody can maybe explain better or correct me ! {image}
thanks for the explanation, it really helped me. it seems there are many factors that I need to learn in order to be great in the analyzes. and I hope you and other friends who are not bored to share with me.
  • #19,466
  • May 20, 2013 1:17am May 20, 2013 1:17am
Quoting Prominent88
{quote} Hi irishtoffy, I am agree with you, I always do all these mistakes you mention just like you is that I like to close early my winning trades and letting my losing trades run for long time end up lose all pips there, sometimes break-even. So I would like to ask any experience traders in this thread to show and guide me (newbie in forex) to control the trade decision and psychology. Appreciate for any comments, Prominent88
Hi there just wanted to react on your post : lets the stop run and kill the profits .

Do not forget that the formula to be profitable is quite simple:
NL * SL < NP * PT

In other words.
Number of stop losses times Stop loss amount should be bigger then number of profits times profit amount.

I always keeps this in mind together with the rule that when ever you are 6 out of ten trades profitable you are allready a good trader, since you where right on the driection (but not yet on the amount)

This means that when I have a short stop loss, say 50 dollars, but i'm only right 1 out of tree times my prodit level needs to be 150 just to break even without slippage.

In reality this means that I have at least have a one to one stop to profit. Preferably my profit is twice my stop so I only have to be right 1 out of tree times. The most difficult part is to actually do this, most traders when they have been in the negative take a small profit because they are glad that they have recovered from a negative position. This is how support and resistance occur. (together with the people who stare at the graphs)

Hope this helps.
  • #19,467
  • May 20, 2013 1:24am May 20, 2013 1:24am
Quoting -PIPstar
Folks.... Most of the banks have holiday today, still its worth watching these divergence..... Interestingly the TDI is crossing from Over Sold/Bought areas. Good Luck PIPstar {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}

Hey PIPstar,

thanks for pointing out those H4 divergence.
Divergence are good to trade and can pick up some good pips when we manage our trades closely.

why so many divergence at the same period?
answer is sudden market volatility and that slow TDI cannot catch up fast enough, hence divergence shows up on our charts.
But, not all divergence trade setups will result in reversal of the underlying Primary Trend. It can be just a major correction in the Intermediate Trend so we grab the pips and run. Then we look for TMS continuation setups and jump back into the Primary Trend.

Got that folks?
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #19,468
  • May 20, 2013 2:00am May 20, 2013 2:00am
Hey,

2 trades i took this just now on AU and UC. Seem to be doing ok so far, but how is my positioning of SL? Too tight? Too loose? Valid under TMS rules?
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  • #19,469
  • May 20, 2013 2:04am May 20, 2013 2:04am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} {image} How to have avoided that trade shown in your chart above? Well, 1) what is the Day and Weekly candle show? 2) to get into a Sell trade entry, I want to see H > L > LH > LL . I don't see LH . 3) There is no bearish reversal CS pattern for me to pick that APB/HA as sell entry. Not to mention where are the support and resistance levels to consider for any trade setup. regards, EMMANUEL
Hi Emmanuel7788,

From your previous post, you write there ''to get into a Sell trade entry, I want to H > L > LH > LL . I don't see LH''.

I not understand about what you mean for that sentence, as from my knowledge (H=High, L=Low, LH=Lower High, LL=Lower low) right?

Is it that LH relate to any decision making when entry? Can I get any chart example for that?

Appreciate for your advice,
Prominent88
  • #19,470
  • May 20, 2013 2:11am May 20, 2013 2:11am
Quoting Prominent88
{quote} Hi Emmanuel7788, From your previous post, you write there ''to get into a Sell trade entry, I want to H > L > LH > LL . I don't see LH''. I not understand about what you mean for that sentence, as from my knowledge (H=High, L=Low, LH=Lower High, LL=Lower low) right? Is it that LH relate to any decision making when entry? Can I get any chart example for that? Appreciate for your advice, Prominent88

I will be sending you back to school soon.
just you wait ... I look for some material ...
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #19,471
  • May 20, 2013 3:45am May 20, 2013 3:45am
Quoting irishtoffy
Hey, 2 trades i took this just now on AU and UC. Seem to be doing ok so far, but how is my positioning of SL? Too tight? Too loose? Valid under TMS rules? {image} {image}
Have checked you AU on H4??
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JacekPreserve Precious Capital
  • #19,472
  • May 20, 2013 3:46am May 20, 2013 3:46am
Quoting Prominent88
{quote} Hi Emmanuel7788, From your previous post, you write there ''to get into a Sell trade entry, I want to H > L > LH > LL . I don't see LH''. I not understand about what you mean for that sentence, as from my knowledge (H=High, L=Low, LH=Lower High, LL=Lower low) right? Is it that LH relate to any decision making when entry? Can I get any chart example for that? Appreciate for your advice, Prominent88
Prominet88,

This EU example for you in case you did not take the counter trend trade earlier when LO.

Now you wait for th Sell setup when this H4 bullish retracement/ correction is over.. Be careful, this correction may turn into a reversal this week.
Still too early for that as we are in Monday and bank holidays.

To see and confirm a bullish reversal, I ant to see L > H > HL > HH .

Anyway, you should go back to babypips.com school of pipsology Grade 10 level.
http://www.babypips.com/school/trendspotting.html

Trade Well.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #19,473
  • May 20, 2013 3:51am May 20, 2013 3:51am
why do people always say:

Buy Low
Sell High...

What is wrong with Buying High?
does that sound contradicting to Buy Low?

see this pic below.
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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #19,474
  • May 20, 2013 4:41am May 20, 2013 4:41am
Hi Emmanuel et al. Good evening.

Just wanted to check if you got a chance to look at the other questions I have. Thanks a lot

HeR
  • #19,475
  • May 20, 2013 4:42am May 20, 2013 4:42am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Prominet88, This EU example for you in case you did not take the counter trend trade earlier when LO. Now you wait for th Sell setup when this H4 bullish retracement/ correction is over.. Be careful, this correction may turn into a reversal this week. Still too early for that as we are in Monday and bank holidays. To see and confirm a bullish reversal, I ant to see L > H > HL > HH . Anyway, you should go back to babypips.com school of pipsology Grade 10 level. http://www.babypips.com/school/trendspotting.html Trade Well. {image}...
Hi Emmanuel7788,

Thanks for your explaination. I am more understand now.

Regards,
Prominent88
  • #19,476
  • May 20, 2013 4:46am May 20, 2013 4:46am
Quoting epepping
{quote} Hi there just wanted to react on your post : lets the stop run and kill the profits . Do not forget that the formula to be profitable is quite simple: NL * SL < NP * PT In other words. Number of stop losses times Stop loss amount should be bigger then number of profits times profit amount. I always keeps this in mind together with the rule that when ever you are 6 out of ten trades profitable you are allready a good trader, since you where right on the driection (but not yet on the amount) This means that when I have a short stop loss,...
Hi epepping,

Really appreciate your advice.

It is quite helpful for me in future tradings.

Thanks buddy.

Regards,
Prominent88
  • #19,477
  • May 20, 2013 5:39am May 20, 2013 5:39am
Quoting Jackub
{quote} Have checked you AU on H4?? {image}
I took it as a 1H trade, and based my decision on the bullish trend in D and W chart
  • #19,478
  • May 20, 2013 5:45am May 20, 2013 5:45am
Quoting irishtoffy
{quote} I took it as a 1H trade, and based my decision on the bullish trend in D and W chart
WWhoops, I meant bearish/downtrend
  • #19,479
  • Edited Oct 1, 2021 5:08pm May 20, 2013 5:57am | Edited Oct 1, 2021 5:08pm
Courtesy of Forexlive.com

"Concepts in Technical Analysis" A handbook of the Basics. Merrill Lynch. Covers the basics of Trend, Momentum and other Technical Indicators and Methods.

{ copyrighted attachment deleted by staff }
Cut your Losers short and let your Winners run.
  • #19,480
  • May 20, 2013 6:55am May 20, 2013 6:55am
Just spent some time backtesting EU.

Took 100 trades between 1st Jan 2010 and 18 March 2011

I used the following rules:

Time Frame 4H
Entered on TDI cross
Only entered in direction of Daily Trend
SL at ATR X 2
TP1 at ATR X 2
TP2 at ATR X 4
I exited when TDI crossed in other direction at close of that candle which meant it a lot of cases I could have been more profitable.

Results were:

Trades 100
Win 73
Loss 25
BE 2
Pips Profit 5,054

Biggest Winner 218
Biggest Loser 120

No SL's were hit
While only 13 TP2's were hit.


I now plan to back test from 1st Jan 2013



Having looked at the losing trades I noticed that on the larger losers I entered too late (2nd candle after cross ) while the 1st candle was very strong.
46 traders viewing now, 1 is registered:
eluo