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EURUSD

  • #799,121
  • May 18, 2013 5:31pm May 18, 2013 5:31pm
Quoting KillerWhale
According to "Action Forex" we will go to 1.2278 But maybe we'll get a sizable bounce first @ 1.2750.
Quoting tomspin
{quote} from 1.37 to 1.27 from 1.27 to 1.32 from 1.32 to 1.22 ...
prolly, maybe, who knows? If we will not break 750 I will buy heavy but I think that we will break this time, it is not the right level to buy, there is no confirmation in cot, fundamentals are against the euro so I am the bear till 22 for profit taking and favour Sisse's 1,16. I believe we are about to set new ranges in the dollar basket for some time
maybe
aussie under 0,9300
sterling between 1,5000 down to 1.4300 even 1.30's are not out of the question
euro not back above 1.3600
canot comment about yen and looney, cannot see levels atm as I do not fully understand them(dough told you about 2012 high to be challanged this year in cad)
Maybe there is naive thinking in all of this but if there is a tap (if ever) in QE and that bloody correction in SP and other indices is due we will see new ranges and levels in dixie basket.
Good stuff ahead
swing it!
  • #799,122
  • May 18, 2013 6:04pm May 18, 2013 6:04pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} When i got time later in the day/tomorrow i'll post charts with some examples. If i forget about it, just remind it to me here or by pm.
Have any free time to post those charts?
  • #799,123
  • May 18, 2013 10:25pm May 18, 2013 10:25pm
Quoting tomspin
{quote} {quote} prolly, maybe, who knows? If we will not break 750 I will buy heavy but I think that we will break this time, it is not the right level to buy, there is no confirmation in cot, fundamentals are against the euro so I am the bear till 22 for profit taking and favour Sisse's 1,16. I believe we are about to set new ranges in the dollar basket for some time maybe aussie under 0,9300 sterling between 1,5000 down to 1.4300 even 1.30's are not out of the question euro not back above 1.3600 canot comment about yen and looney, cannot see levels...
I have to see it.
I can't forget October 3rd 2011 when everyone and his grand mother was crazy about buying dollars and selling eu.
Traders on Channel 49 CNBC told us that Monday there was only 1 thing we could do: BUY THE DOLLAR!
Next day the opposite happened and in 4 weeks eu was 1000 pips up.

AudUsd is slowing down and big bullish divergence is building on the 4 hour chart over most of the last week. (132 hours).

UCAD, don't know what to think yet, the 4 hour hasn't made a higher close yet and there is also the descending trend line on the weekly starting 11-20--2011 which was just touched last Friday before it retreated.
And UCAD has bank holiday Monday and not much news coming the rest of the week, which will built the bearish divergence on the 4 hour that already has started.
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  • #799,124
  • May 18, 2013 10:59pm May 18, 2013 10:59pm
I still have my target its 1.33 and this is a wonderful buying opportunity if I havent spend all my money at 1.31 prices :-(
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #799,125
  • May 18, 2013 11:32pm May 18, 2013 11:32pm
Quoting SugarPink
I still have my target its 1.33 and this is a wonderful buying opportunity if I havent spend all my money at 1.31 prices :-(
That I don'y believe, I think we need to see 1.2750 or maybe better 1.2677 for a good bounce.
And if that happens it will not go to 1.33 but maybe 1.3150 at the most.
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  • #799,126
  • May 18, 2013 11:38pm May 18, 2013 11:38pm
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} That I don'y believe, I think we need to see 1.2750 or maybe better 1.2677 for a good bounce. And if that happens it will not go to 1.33 but maybe 1.3150 at the most.
And after that it can finish the H&S pattern.
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  • #799,127
  • May 19, 2013 2:23am May 19, 2013 2:23am
One year on

On Sunday 20th May 2012 EURUSD opened at 1.27807 that week's high was 1.28236 Low 1.24956 & it closed at 1.25121.
2012's high (1.34855) was made on the 24th Feb and in 2013 the high (so far) was made on the 1st of Feb (1.37103).
2012's low was made on the 24th July - Exactly 6 month from the High on 24th Feb!
If this history to be repeated EU should move lower violently next week and we should see the low of the year in two months?

Hope you all having a good weekend - See you guys later tonight
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #799,128
  • May 19, 2013 2:44am May 19, 2013 2:44am
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enjoy!
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  • #799,129
  • May 19, 2013 3:06am May 19, 2013 3:06am
Next week is going to be a lot of talking heads. FOMC minutes. Toying with traders expectations.

But don't forget what is really going on.
Fed is not going to stop.
BoJ going full speed.
ECB is way behind on the money printing.

In economies.
US Growth is outpacing other economies, and that would be a great case for a strong dollar, if it wasnt for the FED easing.

We are on buying territory it will all go back to higher prices once market realizes its wrong again.
"You're solid gold, see you in hell"
  • #799,130
  • May 19, 2013 4:35am May 19, 2013 4:35am
EG W1

Euro/Sterling ... looking at possible longs this week
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  • #799,131
  • Edited 5:04am May 19, 2013 4:42am | Edited 5:04am
Quoting Bookman
{quote} Have any free time to post those charts?

Yes, give me a few minutes

Here are the friday's opportunity.

I haven't taken the first and last opportunities...first one because RR was so low, and last one because London was closing soon and it was friday.

Of course hindsight is easy some may say

If you want more example let me know. Or days where you haven't seen opportunities.

And i only trade m5 btw

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COT: The precious data ignored
  • #799,132
  • May 19, 2013 5:21am May 19, 2013 5:21am
Quoting Avir
One year on On Sunday 20th May 2012 EURUSD opened at 1.27807 that week's high was 1.28236 Low 1.24956 & it closed at 1.25121. 2012's high (1.34855) was made on the 24th Feb and in 2013 the high (so far) was made on the 1st of Feb (1.37103). 2012's low was made on the 24th July - Exactly 6 month from the High on 24th Feb! If this history to be repeated EU should move lower violently next week and we should see the low of the year in two months? Hope you all having a good weekend - See you guys later tonight
Thanks for the interesting one year comparison.. fwiw, here's my take..
EURUSD @ 20th May 2012:
In M/T Down bias since May 2011.. in mist of an accelerated down trend after breaking-out of the S/T 1.34~1.30 range with Euro-zone engulfed in the PIGS turmoil, took-out 1.2750 & 1.2650 with help from weakness in equities..

EURUSD @ 20th May 2013:
In M/T Up bias since July 2012.. with the PIGS & Cyrus FA issues in back-burner, consolidating 1.32~1.28 S/T with good demand in-front of 1.2750 & 1.2650.. Equities in uncharted territories & exhibiting strong upward continuation after taking out multi-year highs..

IMO If one was to compare M/T PA, the M/T Up bias from June 2010 to January 2011 may be an more appropriate comparison for the prevailing July 2012 to present M/T bias.. have a great week..

EURUSD M/T Pic 2009 to 2013:
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  • #799,133
  • May 19, 2013 6:15am May 19, 2013 6:15am
Eur/Usd Weekly - Head and Shoulders pattern with 1000pips from Head to Neckline.

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We are still in uptrend from 1:20 this trend has not been reversed until neckline support is broken! We still have higher lows on Weekly TF.
But after braking neckline support projected price decline should be equal distance from Neckline to the Top of the Head. (about 1000 pips) So then we could expect move to the 1:17XX level. Watch Out
  • #799,134
  • May 19, 2013 6:17am May 19, 2013 6:17am
Quoting SugarPink
I still have my target its 1.33 and this is a wonderful buying opportunity if I havent spend all my money at 1.31 prices :-(
Pink getting red.
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #799,135
  • May 19, 2013 6:32am May 19, 2013 6:32am
EU W1

a few people calling H&S on this pair ...

... well, the NL is still intact, so the pattern has not formed ...

but much more importantly is that a true H&S is a top reversal pattern - and thus gives plenty of downside space for price to move into. The problem on the current chart in respect to this is that we can barely measure 50% of the range of the supposed pattern before we arrive at some pretty serious support
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  • #799,136
  • May 19, 2013 6:34am May 19, 2013 6:34am
Quoting cdndollar
{quote} Thanks for the interesting one year comparison.. fwiw, here's my take.. EURUSD @ 20th May 2012: In M/T Down bias since May 2011.. in mist of an accelerated down trend after breaking-out of the S/T 1.34~1.30 range with Euro-zone engulfed in the PIGS turmoil, took-out 1.2750 & 1.2650 with help from weakness in equities.. EURUSD @ 20th May 2013: In M/T Up bias since July 2012.. with the PIGS & Cyrus FA issues in back-burner, consolidating 1.32~1.28 S/T with good demand in-front of 1.2750 & 1.2650.. Equities in uncharted territories & exhibiting...
yup, nice to see others looking at the bigger picture

I been posting and updating this chart for over 18 months,
I have been keeping eye on your rally zone too which I feel actually was the 2nd sub wave with the first starting end of 2008, this wave is very exagerated I think because of the 2008 nonsens, the 2nd sub wave being approx 50% of the 1st and this sub wave approx 25% of 1st
So accordingly there is good chance of rally from around these levels or maybe previous double bottom will be nice battle field

Problem this time is the 1st sub rally, gave very little sign of reversing, just printed a massive wick daily and weekly around 18 Dec 2008

2nd sub wave reversal end of Nov and Dec 2010. this time was brief fake break out / up of the 5week range, then big dump

However this 3rd sub wave rejection is presently printing a H&S with the right shoulder printing now, so for normal H&S Trades ie neckline breaks, my guess is the green line is the present neckline, so that could be the next battle zone, if it breaks, I think it will be quick attack on the previous lows, then a massive drop to the 2131 lows
If the neckline holds, then could be a nice rally,

The present HL is the spanner, if it stays as a HL then eu could rally hard, however if the LH holds, then the HL cold be attacked this would be very very interesting battle, because if it breaks and sellers attack th LL this would be weird because it is bearish with a LL "but" bullish because it would be starting to print the lower tl of the falling chanel geez wtf
This chart is weekly, and accordingly targets are reasonable. I am on the fence, cause pa is printing conflicting signs, however it is May and I am short, if this baby drops and attacks the LL by then will be a TL, I will be looking to dabble on the darkside (bull)

For now is battle between left shoulder levels and neckline
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU Weekly 15 5.png Size: 60 KB
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  • #799,137
  • Edited 7:19am May 19, 2013 6:39am | Edited 7:19am
Quoting forexings
{quote} Pink getting red.


Just some thoughts, If we consider history May is far away from it's historical capabilities, around 550 pips to the downside to repeat last 3 years. For those who watch tick volumes some math here, if next week has more than 456826 ticks (which is highly expected) on monthly chart we will have higher volumes than last month. I think that this May candle will completely cover the April buying, probably even more (called "engulfing" i believe). 1.275 is the level to keep on eye, if tested it will be it's third time this year so it may not hold, on the downside 1.266 is the next level to watch although not that strong as 1.275. 1.22xx will be clear after 1.266.

I will sell in the beginning of this week (anything above 1.285 will be nice), and will try to keep the trade until 1.275 is tested. From there I will repeatedly buy with tight SL (10-15 pips) so I can be in if my 1.40 by the end of July is fulfilled.

Stay green all.
Mind you, my first name is Bad. ..."Nunc Id Vides, Nunc Ne Vides"...
  • #799,138
  • May 19, 2013 7:11am May 19, 2013 7:11am
Hong Kong, 18 May 2013
The Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange (HKMEx) announces today it has decided to voluntarily surrender the authorisation to provide automated trading services (“ATS”) granted by the Securities and Futures Commission (“the SFC”). With immediate effect, no new orders may be placed and all open positions will be financially settled at the settlement price determined by HKMEx and its designated clearinghouse.
The voluntary surrender decision was made to enable the Exchange to re-align its strategy with the new industry environment since its trading revenues have not been sufficient to support operating expenses and, as a result, its inability to meet the required regulatory financial conditions.
While trading on the Exchange will discontinue, HKMEx as an organisation will continue to operate with its existing staff, and will focus on developing new products including renminbi-denominated precious and base metals contracts that will better meet customer needs. It also intends to re-apply at an appropriate time for an ATS authorization to launch these products with stronger and more effective market maker programs.
“The favourable conditions under which HKMEx was founded have not changed. Global commodity demand continues to shift towards Asia as the region undergoes sustained growth, presenting great opportunities that we will continue to exploit,” said Barry Cheung, Chairman of HKMEx. “Our priorities now are to protect members’ interests by ensuring effective closing of open positions while strengthening our shareholding base and developing new products that play to our distinctive strengths.”
In closing out the open positions, the Exchange has developed a plan in consultation with the SFC to ensure the process is orderly and that investors are well informed of the matter. The Exchange will disseminate settlement prices to its members the morning of next Monday, 20 May 2013.

Ends --



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  • #799,139
  • May 19, 2013 7:19am May 19, 2013 7:19am
Quoting forexings
{quote} Pink getting red.
The thing is now all is left is luck, because the RR is getting worst everyday it's going down.

The target remains the same and the potential loss is getting worst.

Still waiting for the daily to turn up, maybe between here and 1,277x...next week will tell us what to do.
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #799,140
  • May 19, 2013 8:39am May 19, 2013 8:39am
Quoting cdndollar
{quote} Thanks for the interesting one year comparison.. fwiw, here's my take.. EURUSD @ 20th May 2012: In M/T Down bias since May 2011.. in mist of an accelerated down trend after breaking-out of the S/T 1.34~1.30 range with Euro-zone engulfed in the PIGS turmoil, took-out 1.2750 & 1.2650 with help from weakness in equities.. EURUSD @ 20th May 2013: In M/T Up bias since July 2012.. with the PIGS & Cyrus FA issues in back-burner, consolidating 1.32~1.28 S/T with good demand in-front of 1.2750 & 1.2650.. Equities in uncharted territories & exhibiting...
Thanks, I was looking of Long term SR levels and when i started zooming in i realised it was so funny so i made that comparison just for Information. I don't have a Short bias yet, looking for the fight between 2780-50 area. having said that i have been watching this Channel on Weekly i posted on 9th March
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...8&d=1362850570

And there is a new Wedge - Again this is weekly Anything could happen - Just FYI.
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