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  • #4,881
  • May 13, 2013 3:42pm May 13, 2013 3:42pm
Quoting freeze
A 3-bar m5 FB I was watching on USDJPY, but ultimately I wasn't sure about it. {image} {image}
I'm not sure I like this as a straight FB - the previous swing isn't much of a major swing.

I'd just use it as confluence but would be looking for a PA setup here - strong selling and consumption of the opposing demand (and next demand) then look for a short down to the lowest demand with an intermediate target along the way.

Top arrow shows the retest area I'd be looking at on M1 for a clear zone, otherwise the bar marked lower down is a clear breakout opportunity.

M1 shows a clear retrace area after the lower demand was deep tested - importantly the upper demand DP hadn't been tested yet.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,882
  • May 15, 2013 1:00pm May 15, 2013 1:00pm
Hi Mark,

"Last night's webinar recording now available - with a focus on FB's and common mistakes people make http://www.thetradersguild.co.uk/wp/forum/viewtopic.php?p=4568#p4568 …"

is it only for private forum ? or i have some issues and cant login like usually...

thank you T.
  • #4,883
  • May 15, 2013 1:26pm May 15, 2013 1:26pm
Quoting tinkerbelle
Hi Mark, "Last night's webinar recording now available - with a focus on FB's and common mistakes people make http://www.thetradersguild.co.uk/wp/forum/viewtopic.php?p=4568#p4568 …" is it only for private forum ? or i have some issues and cant login like usually... thank you T.
No, this is in the public side of the Forum, email me your username and what error details you are getting and I'll take a look (website access and forum access are two different log-ins by the way - you need to register separately for the forum if you have not done so - I have since removed the need to log in to the website to view the Trading Strategies section).
  • #4,884
  • May 16, 2013 6:00am May 16, 2013 6:00am
I haven't given up or anything, I just have too much work to keep up with the charts this week.

I'm very intrigued by your breakout trades, and I have been wondering about trading breakouts for some time.
I noticed this one on USDJPY m1, is it a good example? Would the logical entry be on break of the high?
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  • #4,885
  • May 16, 2013 7:54am May 16, 2013 7:54am
Quoting freeze
I haven't given up or anything, I just have too much work to keep up with the charts this week. I'm very intrigued by your breakout trades, and I have been wondering about trading breakouts for some time. I noticed this one on USDJPY m1, is it a good example? Would the logical entry be on break of the high? {image}
Yes it is, I missed that one otherwise would have taken it. I took the reverse for the short, but only a small win as final TP not reached (0.7R) plus my finger was rather slow on the sell button and thus got a very poor entry. But the long was nicer IMO.
  • #4,886
  • May 16, 2013 10:55am May 16, 2013 10:55am
EU today - overall up 3% after commissions ... Thank you LJ.. ( wow LJ like JL ivermore can not be a coincidence )

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  • #4,887
  • Edited 12:02pm May 17, 2013 11:14am | Edited 12:02pm
No HTF trades for me today, but here are this mornings 6 VLTF trades - all PA based (all charts are M1 TF unless stated).

Each trade has an accompanying screen shot of the trade entry and SL (i.e. trade in progress) together with a clearer chart to explain the setup and any related TF charts.

Trade 1: EURUSD +1.84R

This was a breakout of a level after an M1 and M5 FB.

I used a 15second chart to look at the selling versus buying strength after the demand at 64's was consumed. We can see former demand was was broken then we had:

1. Strong rejection on the retrace to it (1st arrow in 2nd chart).
2. Rejection from the 61 level which was fully reversed on the next bar (2nd arrow)
3. Tiny rejection from the 61 level again which again price started to reverse. (3rd arrow).

This of course tells me a) that selling strength is strong and b) buying strength left at that level has likely disappeared now and thus the breakout was the logical outcome.

Scaled out at the demand areas marked on the 3rd chart.
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  • #4,888
  • May 17, 2013 11:40am May 17, 2013 11:40am
Trade 2: EURUSD +1.89R

This was another breakout trade after an RBR formed. I took half a position size on this as the buying strength versus selling strength within the RBR wasn't overly clear. But what made me conclude that a breakout was still more likely was:

1. The previous buying strength (and thus that this consolidation would be an RBR and not an RBD).
2. The fact that the strong bearish bar marked was instantly reversed - if price was to breakout out short then that was the point it was likely to do so.

Again the sub M1 chart show the RBR more clearly.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,889
  • May 17, 2013 11:49am May 17, 2013 11:49am
Trade 3: EURUSD +1.44R

Another breakout trade - at the same level as the previous trade but this time DBD - was a bit slow on the execution so had to take on more risk than I would have liked (as risk was based on a higher entry).

Scaled out at demand marked, was looking for a bigger TP due to the M30 view but price couldn't hold the former demand as supply on the retest so scaled out the remainder.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,890
  • May 17, 2013 11:51am May 17, 2013 11:51am
Trade 4: EURUSD -0.18R

Tried another breakout trade, this time my partial close was just missed so scaled out as PA was more supportive of a retest of lower demand (which would have stopped me out).
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,891
  • May 17, 2013 11:54am May 17, 2013 11:54am
Trade 5: USDJPY +1.00R


Not a big value trade but a simple fast win (1R in 3mins).

Trade was based on double top and 2nd rejection from HTF supply - strong selling (rejection) and consumption of opposing demand with compression below to the left.

The 3rd chart is sub M1 again and shows the demand that needed to be consumed and how buying from the lower demand was swiftly rejected again - tells us a lot about the selling strength there.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,892
  • May 17, 2013 11:57am May 17, 2013 11:57am
Trade 6: USDJPY + 2.07R

Was looking for a short given the previous selling strength and break of the 44 level.

We had a liquidity spike + reversal into higher former demand, opposing demand was deep tested and tiny + shallow retrace (weak buying strength) then this was followed by a strong bearish bar (strong selling / rejection strength from a lower high) - once price was below the demand there was compression to the left so again an easy quick momentum trade down to new demand that had formed.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,893
  • May 17, 2013 12:00pm May 17, 2013 12:00pm
So in summary, in this morning's European session that was 6 trades, 5 winners for +8.06R.

Notice that the PA I'm trading is all to do with supply / demand, rejection strength (i.e. buying versus selling strength), identifying demand that I want to be consumed, false breakouts (i.e. order-flow dynamics) and compression (which is just derived from the concepts of supply/demand consumption).

That is all PA and price reading is about, stripped back to the basics, no indicators, no price patterns, no bar patterns just those core concepts underlined above.
  • #4,894
  • May 18, 2013 4:31am May 18, 2013 4:31am
I've posted a few post over here and decided to create my own supply and demand thread, where I will be posting some of my trades and the way I look at the markets on a swing trading basis, sometimes intraday. I've also uploaded in that thread the Rectangle Reader indicator I've created. This indicator will help you a lot on your supply and demand trading, I'm sure about it, you will see.

It will help you to have cleaner charts as well as to being aware of where the D1 and WK supply and demand zones in control are when zooming in lower timeframes, you don't want to buy into a D1/WK supply zone, or buy into a D1 demand zone. That's very very dangerous and lower odds. With this indicator you will always know about it, if your zones are correctly drawn. It will all depend on how good you are locating the supply and demand imbalances.

This is the thread, feel free to visit it or subscribe to it:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=428204
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #4,895
  • May 18, 2013 8:41am May 18, 2013 8:41am
Quoting lovejoy80
So in summary, in this morning's European session that was 6 trades, 5 winners for +8.06R. Notice that the PA I'm trading is all to do with supply / demand, rejection strength (i.e. buying versus selling strength), identifying demand that I want to be consumed, false breakouts (i.e. order-flow dynamics) and compression (which is just derived from the concepts of supply/demand consumption). That is all PA and price reading is about, stripped back to the basics, no indicators, no price patterns, no bar patterns just those core concepts underlined...
LJ sent you an e-mail a while back on your site. Have not heard back from you yet. Was not sure how to proceed, since I cannot send you a PM.
  • #4,896
  • May 18, 2013 4:23pm May 18, 2013 4:23pm
Quoting 4Xfactor
{quote} LJ sent you an e-mail a while back on your site. Have not heard back from you yet. Was not sure how to proceed, since I cannot send you a PM.
Apologies it probably got lost in my spam or junk folder, can you resend it and I'll look out for it.
  • #4,897
  • May 21, 2013 10:40am May 21, 2013 10:40am
Quoting lovejoy80
{quote} Apologies it probably got lost in my spam or junk folder, can you resend it and I'll look out for it.
Hi LJ,
how are you today? I was up +3R friday, +2,78 monday ... but today was pretty hard to read for me and i am down -6 (everything is daytrading EU M1).
  • #4,898
  • May 21, 2013 12:02pm May 21, 2013 12:02pm
Quoting tinkerbelle
{quote} Hi LJ, how are you today? I was up +3R friday, +2,78 monday ... but today was pretty hard to read for me and i am down -6 (everything is daytrading EU M1).
4 EU trades for me today, have attached the screenshots and brief description, hopefully they will be clear.

Trade 1: +1.65R
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,899
  • May 21, 2013 12:05pm May 21, 2013 12:05pm
Trade 2: +2.32R

Breakout trade a the same supply as the previous trade short was based on.

Strong buying and full test of the DP within the supply and retrace to former supply that held (2nd chart which is sub M1 - 15sec from memory).
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,900
  • May 21, 2013 12:07pm May 21, 2013 12:07pm
Trade 3: +2.34R

Simple breakout trade.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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