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  • #797,781
  • May 14, 2013 4:32pm May 14, 2013 4:32pm
Quoting GreatNorth
{quote} Without revealing too much of my system, some of the fibs are based on Support/Resistance levels that go back years. I don't use indicators, I just focus on PA. Works for me, not for everyone.

What percentage of accuracy do you have with your S/R Fib levels? I like the Pa thing though.
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #797,782
  • May 14, 2013 4:37pm May 14, 2013 4:37pm
Quoting Pair-me-up
{quote} What percentage of accuracy do you have with your S/R Fib levels? I like the Pa thing though.
Accuracy is within a few pips of the levels.

For example, the low is 2919, my target based on fibs was 2922. You can also observe that the price dropped about 20 pips in seconds and is now hovering around that level. Makes me assume the algos wanted to target that level just before 5pm NYT.
  • #797,783
  • May 14, 2013 4:38pm May 14, 2013 4:38pm
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} My target 1.2750
My ultimate target is 1.25 but we will stair step it down. I think 1.284ish for next level. 1.275 prob won't be a sure shot. I ten to break large targets into levels
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #797,784
  • May 14, 2013 4:41pm May 14, 2013 4:41pm
So anyway.. It looks down, but that was daily bearish engulfing into support. I never liked those.. GL all.
  • #797,785
  • May 14, 2013 5:16pm May 14, 2013 5:16pm
Quoting GreatNorth
{quote} Without revealing too much of my system, some of the fibs are based on Support/Resistance levels that go back years. I don't use indicators, I just focus on PA. Works for me, not for everyone.
What is this for nonsense talk?

If you have a system that works, the more people who know it and play it MAKE IT WORK!
Like fibs, a self forfilling profecy
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #797,786
  • May 14, 2013 5:30pm May 14, 2013 5:30pm
Quoting GreatNorth
{quote} Accuracy is within a few pips of the levels. For example, the low is 2919, my target based on fibs was 2922. You can also observe that the price dropped about 20 pips in seconds and is now hovering around that level. Makes me assume the algos wanted to target that level just before 5pm NYT.
Hmmmm... I don't really know about the Algo.. how are they programmed to trade on the market?
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #797,787
  • May 14, 2013 6:33pm May 14, 2013 6:33pm
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} What is this for nonsense talk? If you have a system that works, the more people who know it and play it MAKE IT WORK! Like fibs, a self forfilling profecy
There is always an exception.
  • #797,788
  • May 14, 2013 6:59pm May 14, 2013 6:59pm
Well I think all pairs and gold reched their hard landing. Money again from bonds went to stocks and commodities. So dollar should get rest, and euro, gold, aud - up.
  • #797,789
  • May 14, 2013 7:41pm May 14, 2013 7:41pm
Is this called doji and what it does?
  • #797,790
  • May 14, 2013 7:46pm May 14, 2013 7:46pm
Quoting Mahfooz
Is this called doji and what it does? {image}
A doji itself does not do anything. It is a candlestick formation that is subjectively looked at to forecast price action continuation or reversal.

On a second note, if German GDP disappoints could see 1.285 after the typical pump and dump. If not, 1.303-60
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #797,791
  • May 14, 2013 7:49pm May 14, 2013 7:49pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} A doji itself does not do anything. It is a candlestick formation that is subjectively looked at to forecast price action continuation or reversal. On a second note, if German GDP disappoints could see 1.285 after the typical pump and dump. If not, 1.303-60
so we have to see the next candle and follow right?

thank you for sharing your analysis
  • #797,792
  • May 14, 2013 7:54pm May 14, 2013 7:54pm
Quoting Mahfooz
{quote} so we have to see the next candle and follow right? thank you for sharing your analysis
It just depends, really. They're subjective so everybody has their own interpretations. The can be useful to spot out, but I wouldn't depend on trading them. You can find common setups online. There is like 15 different doji
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #797,793
  • May 14, 2013 7:58pm May 14, 2013 7:58pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} It just depends, really. They're subjective so everybody has their own interpretations. The can be useful to spot out, but I wouldn't depend on trading them. You can find common setups online. There is like 15 different doji
well thats why i never paid any serious attention to these things, just PA works perfectly fine for me, thanks
  • #797,794
  • May 14, 2013 7:58pm May 14, 2013 7:58pm
Quoting Mahfooz
{quote} so we have to see the next candle and follow right? thank you for sharing your analysis

Both buyer and sellers are looking @ same chart , each trade have equal buy & sell
Mohan
  • #797,795
  • May 14, 2013 8:04pm May 14, 2013 8:04pm
Quoting mohan76
{quote} Both buyer and sellers are looking @ same chart , each trade have equal buy & sell
yes it has
  • #797,796
  • May 14, 2013 8:16pm May 14, 2013 8:16pm
Quoting sidhujag
Bear flag on all JPY crosses... go all in short now and hold on for weeks/months for massive profit... cya in a year for i told u so!
Hope u all got in on the test.
  • #797,797
  • May 14, 2013 8:19pm May 14, 2013 8:19pm
Quoting Pair-me-up
{quote} I would really like to see a run up to 3097 as well. On my charts I got 1.30772 and about that I have 1.30922 as the neckline from a previous H&S which if for some crazy reason, my bull target if passes 1.30922 would be 1.34376. If we fail between 1.30922 and 1.30772 then my bear target is set at 1.27434. I don't use meta trader for my charts. Plus you are a lot more experienced than me. So, if I am missing something.. please teach me my mistake.
Never a mistake.. We try to improve odds beyond 50%, nothing more.. following that risk management and portfolio construction..

Im betting on H&S targeting <1.25 you can see it on Weekly TF EUR/USD

This will dampen EUR/JPY. Set a nice TP on 132.7 last night so glad.. re-entered around 132.2, where USD/JPY held 102.2


My tip: from experience never set a TP at an exact number, say 1.3100 for the EUR/USD. or 1.000 for the AUD/USD.

Market either doesn't reach it, or passes through it and continues to rally.

SO. I have learnt to set long TP 200-300 below significant resistance levels. And pending longs 200-300 above significant supports.

This has been very successful. From experience, the GBP/USD is typical for failing this strategy so I look for harmonic patterns to work together.

AB=CD possibility on GBP/USD. It worked getting down to 1.53 from 1.62.

Now there may be another possibility to get to 1.43 from memory I calculated this morning. (1.62-1.53=0.11), (1.54-0.11)=1.43

This is a farfetched analysis, fundamentally is it possible? USD is getting facing a very strong bull run at the moment, Britain hitting the markets with news about triple dip recession could send us down..

I will not short until Bat pattern is cancelled, if at all.

Personally I'd buy dips on the Pound.. Looks like a bomb ready to explode on the bears.. @KiwiTrada

Thoughts appreciated, always wanting to chat.. I run a search on my name and will reply to you as soon as possible.
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #797,798
  • Edited 8:42pm May 14, 2013 8:28pm | Edited 8:42pm
Quoting John Gray
{quote} Never a mistake.. We try to improve odds beyond 50%, nothing more.. following that risk management and portfolio construction.. Im betting on H&S targeting <1.25 you can see it on Weekly TF EUR/USD This will dampen EUR/JPY. Set a nice TP on 132.7 last night so glad.. re-entered around 132.2, where USD/JPY held 102.2 My tip: from experience never set a TP at an exact number, say 1.3100 for the EUR/USD. or 1.000 for the AUD/USD. Market either doesn't reach it, or passes through it and continues to rally. SO. I have learnt to set long...
Abe is announcing the second tier of the QE and coupled with money flowing into equities, I see dollar strength and USDJPY around 103.15 next week. Yearly target of 107-8. EURJPY may dampen, but I guess we will see how low the yen limbo goes. Still see 136
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #797,799
  • May 14, 2013 8:50pm May 14, 2013 8:50pm
Quoting diggo
Euro will be a killer short next week. It seems most likely we are in for a normal bounce to at least 1.3065. I'll be looking for large short positions between 3065 and 3100. I respect Gator's 309x number so I'll probably wait for that with a small stop
Anyone beginning to think the retrace to 1.3029 was enough for a big bear resumption?

The euro has a personality of going back to the mid almost all of the time. This time seems to be an exception.

I've been waiting and waiting to short this turd but it just won't let me enter.
  • #797,800
  • May 14, 2013 8:55pm May 14, 2013 8:55pm
Quoting John Gray
{quote} Never a mistake.. We try to improve odds beyond 50%, nothing more.. following that risk management and portfolio construction.. Im betting on H&S targeting <1.25 you can see it on Weekly TF EUR/USD This will dampen EUR/JPY. Set a nice TP on 132.7 last night so glad.. re-entered around 132.2, where USD/JPY held 102.2 My tip: from experience never set a TP at an exact number, say 1.3100 for the EUR/USD. or 1.000 for the AUD/USD. Market either doesn't reach it, or passes through it and continues to rally. SO. I have learnt to set long...

Once I realized I am my best counter indicator.. regardless of the position (above or under water), the more I want to get out the more I add.. I get out when I feel too comfortable.. It works pretty well for me.
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