USD/JPY Discussion

97.26 area long term, that's what I'm seeing. Short term, undecided. That's what I need to check out now, the DP and WP scenario.

LOL

okay.... captain...

Sorry for not answering sooner, I was asleep.
Standard risk deferral clause - nothing is ever 100%.

The non-standard approach:
Open UJ 1hr chart, look back at every Monday at the period 00:00 to 06:00 GMT. Last Monday was Jpy bank holiday and UJ flat-lined until Europe started to open; but other weeks this period is repeatable wherein UJ is lower by 05:00. The most common aberration is for UJ to rise slightly in the 00:00 and/or 01:00 candles, as happened yesterday. Major upsets can occur due to G7/G20/Ecofin meetings that occur typically over a weekend, however notice that the news did not affect this Monday's droop - which was late by about an hour. Also the first candle at market-open often rises, sometimes quite a lot; however I have noticed that much of the movement can occur due to opening spread conditions and any advantage disappears as the spread tightens.

I took 30 pips long between 11:00 and 19:00 GMT. Small beans but every little helps, as they say.

The Fundamental approach: <ducks to avoid projectile thrown by LG>
Fundamentals are supporting a general rise in UJ. We have Abe and Kuroda talking down the Yen in advance of the actual dispersion of money, and that is weakening the Yen. Conversely the JQE has raised expectation in the Japanese stock market and investors appear to be expecting a mirror of what has happened on Wall St. due to the Fed's QE efforts. This is the Monday morning droop, imho. We have 'voiced opinions' coming from some members of the Fed about the nature of the unwinding of QE in the US; the mere suggestion has lifted the US dollar. We also have improved unemployment claims numbers and balance of trade figures in the US last week, these considerably strengthened the US dollar.

Technicals:
I also believe in the effects of SR lines, however we are in uncharted waters after the recent rise so assessment is now difficult. A retracement is likely. Fibonacci fans will not be surprised to see UJ return to 100.50, I will not be trading that postulate. However I suggest a strong buy signal exists just above 100, valid for this week, being the 62% return. IMHO.

So if you trade intraday a long at market open was not such a good idea, price was pulling away from the upper Bollinger band and has returned to the mean and maybe price will track 101.50 for a while. However if you normally hold positions for days or weeks it might have been a good call, the market will show.

I hope you appreciate my thoughts here, whilst typing I missed a peach of an entry on the stock market - that may turn out to be a bull trap...
I will know in a few hours.

:nerd:

I got another chance with my stock entry.
If it was a bull trap - they got me!
I am currently ahead 0.26%

I'll have to take my time to digest it.

I have read your analysis and you stated my mind. I never saw UJ movement like the you saw it.

I missed this bearish run so i would be waiting for it to end.

You are welcome, hope it helps.
Good trading to you.

1:30pmUSD
NFIB Small Business Index
92.189.989.5
2:30pmUSD
Import Prices m/m
-0.5%-0.5%-0.2%

I know that they not that Important but can feed the Bulls.

I hope for a bull start in US Seasson.

Greetings.

Open UJ 1hr chart, look back at every Monday at the period 00:00 to 06:00 GMT. Last Monday was Jpy bank holiday and UJ flat-lined until Europe started to open; but other weeks this period is repeatable wherein UJ is lower by 05:00. The most common aberration is for UJ to rise slightly in the 00:00 and/or 01:00 candles

Exodus, I will check this on Mondays. ¿ is this rule usefull just only for Mondays??? ¿is this due the correlation with EUR/USD?

[quote=Ambar;6679412]Open UJ 1hr chart, look back at every Monday at the period 00:00 to 06:00 GMT. Last Monday was Jpy bank holiday and UJ flat-lined until Europe started to open; but other weeks this period is repeatable wherein UJ is lower by 05:00. The most common aberration is for UJ to rise slightly in the 00:00 and/or 01:00 candles Exodus,
I will check this on Mondays. ¿ is this rule usefull just only for Mondays??? ¿is this due the correlation with EUR/USD?

Got my Bull

So i am done for today.

TP@ 102.15

Good evening @ all

took profit 102.25

On its way for 103 ...

ye tomorrow. Now is to late ;-)

Can someone explain why anyone would short this? Even looking at the front page that displays the trades, you can see that shorting it has had 0 winning trades, and yet 52% of people are short v.s. 48% long x_x

102.15 is good support, watch the short squeeze lol..

Simple, some people believe that UJ will fall particularly after such a strong run-up.
Also there are downward moves that can be traded, just bear in mind that trading against the trend is high-risk.

I'm looking to short this pair at 103.38, looking at the 4hr charts going all the way back to 6th October 2008, it looks like an ideal area to short.