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  • #48,801
  • May 13, 2013 3:09pm May 13, 2013 3:09pm
An good m1 short from you.You said "SM moved price above 3/4 S&R and increased trading ".
Do you get this as a short trade after seeing increased trading and not increasing price or was it only starting to build a position ?
Moreover what would be different in a classic gu long per volume basis, don't we see increased trading also in a classic long ?


Quoting traderathome
GU Short Trade: Entered short trade #1, Scout. M1 PVSRA shows SM moved price above 3/4 S&R and increased trading. SM = bears. {image} {image}
  • #48,802
  • May 13, 2013 3:17pm May 13, 2013 3:17pm
Eurcad slipped to 1.3066 and had a pullback.It might break down tomorrow so still keeping this


Quoting okanemici
Hi Master, Happy to see you standing up for the sake of your thread, it is important and a little bit late. All down w1 candles are not followed by an other down week candle , sometimes we see an opposite weekly candle after a down weekly candle.If you can be more specific about this I 'd be happy. Moreover eurcad short is my candidate for immediate short on monday, expect at least 50-65 easy pips there, and look at the coincidence it has a down weekly candle.What would be your comments on this down weekly candle and m1 chart ? If Master is busy...
  • #48,803
  • Edited 4:12pm May 13, 2013 3:26pm | Edited 4:12pm
PVSRA, EJ

For days now, SM has been keeping prices on high. Take note where these prices are relative to price history. Weeks, even months ago, if there was a high target for SM to shoot for, this area is it imho. And the Month chart also shows the extremely high SM volume on the bar that first struck up into this high target area! That is PVSRA indicating when SM got the price into the target area, they immediately turned to bears and started closing longs, and the fact of this is obvious on a Week chart, even more obvious on the Day chart! Since closing longs and replacing them with shorts is a process, not an event, it is no wonder that prices have not been allowed to fall far from the highs. SM has kept upwards pressure on prices because that is the smart thing to do when you have longs you want to get rid of at maximum profit, and shorts you want to obtain at prices assuring maximum future profits. This involves SM doing a lot of "selling", which means SM needs someone to do a lot of "buying", which will only happen if SM continues to make PA look bullish so as to sucker in the longs necessary to get the job done.

Now add to this the potential for euro weakness (subject of post above on EU). If the YEN pairs devaluation flips to evaluation (The YEN Sting), and the euro flips from "...for God's sake, keep pumping it up!..." to "...Well, I guess God ain't going to help. Sell! Sell! Sell!...", what do you think will be the result? Do you think EJ might go back down about as far as it came up, and about as quickly?

WARNING: Speculative.
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  • #48,804
  • Edited 5:30pm May 13, 2013 3:43pm | Edited 5:30pm
Quoting okanemici
An good m1 short from you.You said "SM moved price above 3/4 S&R and increased trading ". Do you get this as a short trade after seeing increased trading and not increasing price or was it only starting to build a position ? Moreover what would be different in a classic gu long per volume basis, don't we see increased trading also in a classic long ? {quote}
GU:

I guess you did not catch up on your reading of the thread. The overview:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...73#post6675173

So far as how PVSRA works, it started late March. More postings for you to study. Other than that, I am having a difficult time understanding what question(s) exactly, you seek an answer to.
  • #48,805
  • May 13, 2013 6:08pm May 13, 2013 6:08pm
Quoting okanemici
Beware of a bounce at 0.9915 - 0.9875 area professor. That is where I expect a reversal on this, it could be a sudden one or might accumulate and wait for the beginning of the new month. {quote} {quote}
AU:

Week- SM rammed price down thru SR (blue rectangle), so with or without a pullback it looks like SM has a plan.
Month - Down 100 pips is next SR.
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  • #48,806
  • May 13, 2013 6:30pm May 13, 2013 6:30pm
GU:

Looking to add to my short trade.....
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  • #48,807
  • May 13, 2013 6:45pm May 13, 2013 6:45pm
Quoting traderathome
AU Short Trade: Entered short trade #1, Classic. Well, sort of. It would have been a Classic if SM had not moved the price up so high, but after a quick and heavy selloff, SM promptly hiked the price right back up and even higher than the selloff started from. So, the entry was an intended Classic, but SM gave me some extra pips higher for this entry. If SM moves price to upper whole number area, increases trading while PVSRA indicates they are bears, I intend to add another short. {image}
AU Short Trade:

Added short trade #2, Scout. M15 PVSRA shows SM has pulled the price back up to SR area and the notable volume increase once that happened indicates that SM is a bear.
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  • #48,808
  • May 13, 2013 7:03pm May 13, 2013 7:03pm
Yes I missed that post, so you allready had a bearish bias in gu .When mm took price to 3/4 s&r and increased trading it is enough for you to start shorting right ? I'm new to this 1min price action and volume and having diffuculties in seperating bullish volume from bearish volume.
When you look at this chart, what makes you think longing it or exiting your short with pvsra ? An increase in price with low volume or increased volume on decreasing prices or sth else ?

By the way I studied some of your early pvsra trades , wanted to advise some ema to filter the bad ones but remembering you don't have respect to any lagging indies I don't.

Quoting traderathome
{quote} GU: I guess you did not catch up on your reading of the thread. The overview: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...73#post6675173 So far as how PVSRA works, it started late March. More postings for you to study. Other than that, I am having a difficult time understanding what question(s) exactly, you seek an answer to.
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  • #48,809
  • May 13, 2013 7:18pm May 13, 2013 7:18pm
EJ Breakthrough, if whole number broken very good short entry!
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There is no spoon....
  • #48,810
  • May 13, 2013 7:18pm May 13, 2013 7:18pm
Quoting okanemici
Yes I missed that post, so you allready had a bearish bias in gu .When mm took price to 3/4 s&r and increased trading it is enough for you to start shorting right ? I'm new to this 1min price action and volume and having diffuculties in seperating bullish volume from bearish volume. When you look at this chart, what makes you think longing it or exiting your short with pvsra ? An increase in price with low volume or increased volume on decreasing prices or sth else ? By the way I studied some of your early pvsra trades , wanted to advise some ema...
GU:

Look at my chart, which shows what I see thru the eyes of PVSRA....
1. The SonicR short setup exploded out of the gate. SM is a bear.
2. Now SM is attempting to restore the price back higher. Note the green as SM got the price up to/thru the whole number. That increased volume at that SR indicates SM is a bear.
3. So, I am stalking to build my position larger by adding another Scout short in the SR (black line) area if SM gets the price up there.
4. And if SM gets the price up there, and then moves price even higher, so long as PVSRA indicates SM is still a bear, then I might add another Scout short if SM gets the price to the upper 1/4SR.
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  • #48,811
  • May 13, 2013 7:41pm May 13, 2013 7:41pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} GU Short Trade: Added short trade #2, Scout. After heavy selloff, SM immediately hiked price back up above half number to a previous local SR level. Trading increased again when SM got price up thru the half number, and again when SM got price into the 1.536xs, indicating SM= bears. {image}
GU Short Trade:

Added short trades #3 and #4, Scouts. M15 PVSRA showed SM to be strong bears when the Classic short setup broke out strongly yesterday. In this new Asian session when SM got price above whole number they increased trading = Bears. I decided if SM got price to SR, to add Scout short, and if SM then took price to 1/4SR then I would add another Scout short. SM did. I did.
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  • #48,812
  • May 13, 2013 7:57pm May 13, 2013 7:57pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} EU Short Trade: Added short trade #3, supporting Scout. Price has been pulled up to local S&R three times in the early Asian session, since opening the week down. No SL. TP1 is in the area of 1.2750-1.2800. {image}
EU Short Trade:

Added short trade #4, Scout. M15 PVSRA shows SM hiking price back up above whole number followed by increased trading = Bears.
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  • #48,813
  • Edited 9:20pm May 13, 2013 8:41pm | Edited 9:20pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} EJ Short Trade: Added short trade #14, a Scout. {image}
Quoting traderathome
PVSRA, EJ For days now, SM has been keeping prices on high. Take note where these prices are relative to price history. Weeks, even months ago, if there was a high target for SM to shoot for, this area is it imho. And the Month chart also shows the extremely high SM volume on the bar that first struck up into this high target area! That is PVSRA indicating when SM got the price into the target area, they immediately turned to bears and started closing longs, and the fact of this is obvious on a Week chart, even more obvious on the Day chart! Since closing longs and replacing them with shorts is a process, not an event, it is no wonder that prices have not been allowed to fall far from the highs. SM has kept upwards pressure on prices because that is the smart thing to do when you have longs you want to get rid of at maximum profit, and shorts you want to obtain at prices assuring maximum future profits. This involves SM doing a lot of "selling", which means SM needs someone to do a lot of "buying", which will only happen if SM continues to make PA look bullish so as to sucker in the longs necessary to get the job done. Now add to this the potential for euro weakness (subject of post above on EU). If the YEN pairs devaluation flips to evaluation (The YEN Sting), and the euro flips from "...for God's sake, keep pumping it up!..." to "...Well, I guess God ain't going to help. Sell! Sell! Sell!...", what do you think will be the result? Do you think EJ might go back down about as far as it came up, and about as quickly? WARNING: Speculative. {image} {image} {image}
EJ Short Trade:

Added short trade #15, Scout. M1 PVSRA shows SM moving price back above whole number and then increasing trading = Bears.
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  • #48,814
  • May 13, 2013 8:44pm May 13, 2013 8:44pm
AUDUSD
Today is Australia budget day.
We may be trading into the shadow of MN May candle. Still to early to say if we should buy but the last week' heavy fall meant something we should re-look at for those short term swing and longer term traders.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #48,815
  • May 13, 2013 9:51pm May 13, 2013 9:51pm
EU Comment:

Notice the nice run up in this early Asian session, a run about twice as far on about half as much activity than during the heat of the prior London session. Two things should come to mind.

1. When SM are bulls they do not drive up the price on themselves while buying, nor do they waste money on initiating a "run for profits" ahead of the London session when more SM might not be finished loading longs and so would just undo the efforts made to move price towards profits.

2. Since SM are not bulls, they are bears. And it makes a lot more since that SM bears would drive up price during a time of the market when there is less activity and therefore when it costs less to move price. Why move price up? To start shorting again at higher prices, of course.

This price action has the look of a specific SM outfit,.....a market maker, or a combination of market makers that have run the price above the whole number to where there were orders to be filled (short orders, obviously) so the market makers could make commissions on filling those orders. The market makers would also have taken a long position before hiking the price, so they could make profits on the run up, more than to cover any of their costs of manipulating the price up to those waiting short orders.

This PA is telling us SM are bears still looking to enlarge their short positions because they are expecting nice profits still to come.
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  • #48,816
  • May 13, 2013 10:17pm May 13, 2013 10:17pm
Quoting traderathome
EU Comment: Notice the nice run up in this early Asian session, a run about twice as far on about half as much activity than during the heat of the prior London session. Two things should come to mind. 1. When SM are bulls they do not drive up the price on themselves while buying, nor do they waste money on initiating a "run for profits" ahead of the London session when more SM might not be finished loading longs and so would just undo the efforts made to move price towards profits. 2. Since SM are not bulls, they are bears. And it makes a lot...
But yesterday NewYork Session we saw a strong bottom pin bar. Is it an alert that the bearish can not control the market?
After that I am hesitate to short.
  • #48,817
  • May 13, 2013 10:41pm May 13, 2013 10:41pm
Quoting followtr
{quote} But yesterday NewYork Session we saw a strong bottom pin bar. Is it an alert that the bearish can not control the market? After that I am hesitate to short.
I see that candle as a strong shorting thrust and quick price recovery. It marks the level below which SM was not yet ready to move price. They shorted the hell out of EU, and then quickly manipulated the price to full recovery and left it there. With more of their short orders 50 pips higher, SM left the price there with the odds that the market makers would hike the price those 50 pips to do business and get those higher short orders filled. When the London session opens, SM will have the price all high again, and already with some new short orders filled thanks to the market makers, and SM will be ready for more active shorting with a 75 pips cushion to work with before exceeding the previous lows. That is how I see it.
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  • #48,818
  • May 13, 2013 11:35pm May 13, 2013 11:35pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} I see that candle as a strong shorting thrust and quick price recovery. It marks the level below which SM was not yet ready to move price. They shorted the hell out of EU, and then quickly manipulated the price to full recovery and left it there. With more of their short orders 50 pips higher, SM left the price there with the odds that the market makers would hike the price those 50 pips to do business and get those higher short orders filled. When the London session opens, SM will have the price all high again, and already with some new...
Thanks for your explanation. I will study how it develops.
  • #48,819
  • May 14, 2013 2:07am May 14, 2013 2:07am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} I see that candle as a strong shorting thrust and quick price recovery. It marks the level below which SM was not yet ready to move price. They shorted the hell out of EU, and then quickly manipulated the price to full recovery and left it there. With more of their short orders 50 pips higher, SM left the price there with the odds that the market makers would hike the price those 50 pips to do business and get those higher short orders filled. When the London session opens, SM will have the price all high again, and already with some new...
MM us market maker
what is SM?
  • #48,820
  • May 14, 2013 2:11am May 14, 2013 2:11am
Quoting meirk
{quote} MM us market maker what is SM?
Smart Money - same thing
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