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Sonic R. System

  • #48,781
  • May 13, 2013 8:02am May 13, 2013 8:02am
AU Short Trade:

Entered short trade #1, Classic. Well, sort of. It would have been a Classic if SM had not moved the price up so high, but after a quick and heavy selloff, SM promptly hiked the price right back up and even higher than the selloff started from. So, the entry was an intended Classic, but SM gave me some extra pips higher for this entry. If SM moves price to upper whole number area, increases trading while PVSRA indicates they are bears, I intend to add another short.
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  • #48,782
  • May 13, 2013 8:05am May 13, 2013 8:05am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} I am looking for H4 and D setup.... I need to be very patient as there are only 6 x H4 candles per day.... Now H4 looks like sideway .... must wait longer and moreover there is no sign of cable strength.
It is good to have H4 chart open too... 132.3x above will looks bullish or else.. entracement on the card..



Sonic
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  • #48,783
  • May 13, 2013 8:06am May 13, 2013 8:06am
Bank management

Hi guys, I wanna write this post to ask for your help regarding bankroll management. And if at the same time it helps new guys, perfect.

I always like to have a fixed amount of risk per trade, but since I discovered the building position method, I´m not sure how to handle that. To let you know, my current bank management for the sonic R system is:

- Scout entries: 0,5% of the bank
- Classic entries: 1% of the bank

The problem is how to handle entries with no SL. When I have a fixed SL, I adapt my lots to risk that % I said before, but without SL, that's impossible. My question to you guys is, how do you manage that entries? I have been thinking to risk around 0,2-0,3% risk per 100 pips of drawdown, but I want to ask you for feedback before because I know it will help me and other guys in the thread.

Best, Tymedu
To fail is just an opportunity to learn
  • #48,784
  • May 13, 2013 8:13am May 13, 2013 8:13am
Quoting Tymedu
Bank management Best,- Scout entries: 0,5% of the bank - Classic entries: 1% of the bank The problem is how to handle entries with no SL. Tymedu
not so tide.. not so wide...
  • #48,785
  • May 13, 2013 8:16am May 13, 2013 8:16am
"is there supply at red arrows without much effort, three times no apparent volume increase followed now by a red candle, meaning volume was not required until mm got the price needed to go lower? vol had been defending lower prices meaning mm manipulating to take on shorts at higher price."


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1368409332

6 to 8 hrs for this to come to fruition.
confluence of 200ema and breaching the half # createdturnaround for this short....1.5566
sorry, poor format of second chart
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  • #48,786
  • May 13, 2013 8:17am May 13, 2013 8:17am
Quoting jasakreatif
{quote} not so tide.. not so wide...
I´m not asking where to put my SL, I know that. I´m asking about how to handle the bank management in entries without SL, like when we are building positions...
To fail is just an opportunity to learn
  • #48,787
  • May 13, 2013 8:20am May 13, 2013 8:20am
Quoting traderathome
GU Short Trade: Entered short trade #1, Scout. M1 PVSRA shows SM moved price above 3/4 S&R and increased trading. SM = bears. {image} {image}
GU Short Trade:

Added short trade #2, Scout. After heavy selloff, SM immediately hiked price back up above half number to a previous local SR level. Trading increased again when SM got price up thru the half number, and again when SM got price into the 1.536xs, indicating SM= bears.
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  • #48,788
  • May 13, 2013 8:23am May 13, 2013 8:23am
Quoting Tymedu
{quote} I´m not asking where to put my SL, I know that. I´m asking about how to handle the bank management in entries without SL, like when we are building positions...
come to the bank ask the girl at that bank
  • #48,789
  • May 13, 2013 8:24am May 13, 2013 8:24am
Quoting jasakreatif
{quote} come to the bank ask the girl at that bank
Well, definitively u are a retarded, I can do nothing about that
To fail is just an opportunity to learn
  • #48,790
  • May 13, 2013 8:34am May 13, 2013 8:34am
Quoting Tymedu
Bank management Hi guys, I wanna write this post to ask for your help regarding bankroll management. And if at the same time it helps new guys, perfect. I always like to have a fixed amount of risk per trade, but since I discovered the building position method, I´m not sure how to handle that. To let you know, my current bank management for the sonic R system is: - Scout entries: 0,5% of the bank - Classic entries: 1% of the bank The problem is how to handle entries with no SL. When I have a fixed SL, I adapt my lots to risk that...
If you are limiting yourself to say a total of 6 entries per Trade / position and thus 5.5% of your bank, you are in line with my suggestions in post # 48,613....I am assuming that you actually put in a hard stop within say 50 pips of your last entry, otherwise any suggestions are worthless, as you have an UNLIMITED LIABILITY
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #48,791
  • May 13, 2013 8:39am May 13, 2013 8:39am
Quoting sonicdeejay
{quote} It is good to have H4 chart open too... 132.3x above will looks bullish or else.. entracement on the card.. Sonic {image}
As usual, I totallly agree and every weekend I print out hard copies of the 4 hour charts of EurUsd, UsdJpy & EurJpy and put them up on the wall above my monitors. Every morning, my first job is to update these charts with green & red pens.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #48,792
  • May 13, 2013 8:46am May 13, 2013 8:46am
SHORTING USD/CHF...

a kind of classic....

trendline and dragon heading towards down...

i think i jumped to early
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  • #48,793
  • May 13, 2013 9:16am May 13, 2013 9:16am
Out of Yen shorts, chart etc updated in #48,742
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #48,794
  • May 13, 2013 9:21am May 13, 2013 9:21am
Here is my 3 Entry in Alparil Demo, pls help me 2 confirm it right or wrong entry analyse
EU: I saw H-L - HH (little )- LL; in LL we have small candle with small body and long shadow + high volume. And I set EP above HH + 5 pips.
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GU: Don't have H-L - HH - LL, it's sideway. Noted that red candle with high volume and break dow the dragon, so here my short.
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EJ: formed with H-L-HH-LL and candle with high volume
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Thanks for read my post
  • #48,795
  • May 13, 2013 10:40am May 13, 2013 10:40am
Quoting Islander
{quote} As usual, I totallly agree and every weekend I print out hard copies of the 4 hour charts of EurUsd, UsdJpy & EurJpy and put them up on the wall above my monitors. Every morning, my first job is to update these charts with green & red pens.....
That's a great discipline. Might have to try that.

Quoting Tymedu
{quote} I´m not asking where to put my SL, I know that. I´m asking about how to handle the bank management in entries without SL, like when we are building positions...
This drives at the heart of the issue with PVSRA. At what point do you call it a day and walk away from a trade that has gone against you? For me until I can answer that question with a definitive answer that enables me to bound my risk the strategy is not complete. You could not for instance write a business plan for it stating you will have pot w risk x% and expect drawdowns of y and profits of z. For me that is what this exercise is about; establishing how one can come up with those metrics. At the moment I still have out of the money Yen shorts - I have not closed these as I still see potential top forming moves - but could easily be wrong. So when do I cut and run? It could be out of boredom at this rate to clear the decks and scalp until the market resolves itself. Even if the down move does occur I have to wait for a good 200 plus pips just to break even.

Account Size
My working assumption as stated before is assune 200 pip drawdown per lot average. If you are planning on 10 lots max allow yourself twice that, so 20 lots (4000 pips draw) and in total risk no more than 2% account size giving 200000 pip account size per pair traded. That means a 2000 pip profit is a 1% return. Even then I would not want to operate this on an account I was not prepared to lose completely (ie run it on a small live account separate from your main account). So whilst I am growing to like my 2000 pip weekly returns it is tempered by the small actual % return, the fact I cannot make this a viable business plan yet, and did I mention a large Yen short overhang?

For me this is a research project using the combined brainpower of the very smart fellows on this forum to help shape a sound strategy. The weekend posts show we are not there yet! It may prove inappropriate for me long term as I need to be able to walk away from my monitors and not come back - just personal circumstance - but if nothing else I hope to learn how to use PVSRA to my advantage whilst looking for shorter term scalps.


I have not been active today, partly because the market was less than inspiring and partly because I struggled to be in front of my screen. I have however taken a couple of small shorts in UJ and EU on the strength of the chart action and PVSRA (not another Yen short!).

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Katte, kabuto no o wo shime yo. Size doesn't matter, leverage is the killer
  • #48,796
  • May 13, 2013 11:25am May 13, 2013 11:25am
Quoting revoli
{quote} That's a great discipline. Might have to try that. {quote} This drives at the heart of the issue with PVSRA. At what point do you call it a day and walk away from a trade that has gone against you? For me until I can answer that question with a definitive answer that enables me to bound my risk the strategy is not complete. You could not for instance write a business plan for it stating you will have pot w risk x% and expect drawdowns of y and profits of z. For me that is what this exercise is about; establishing how one can come up...
Yes, its not only a good discipline, but also very useful to be able to just look up and bring what's happening on the lower TFs into perspective.

"If you are planning on 10 lots max allow yourself twice that, so 20 lots (4000 pips draw) and in total risk no more than 2% account size giving 200000 pip account size per pair traded."

I wondered how long it would take for someone to pick up on this......prepare yourself for a rally or fall to go on TWICE as long as you think it will and you'll be a safer trader.

Take a look at your monthly chart of UJ and note that it rallied ~4,800 pips in 24 months from its January 1995 low WITHOUT any appreciable pull back....

Untill UJ can have an hourly close under 99.65 I'm far from convinced that this leg up is over.....TWT
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #48,797
  • May 13, 2013 11:42am May 13, 2013 11:42am
Thanks Tah,

GU trade 100 pip trade
As a former sonicer, i was looking a risky CT long trade this morning. Your new interpretation of volume seems to be working fine.
Its now clear for me to adjust myself to this new type of trades before i restart to trading. Thanks for your posts, clear answers and your effort once again.
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  • #48,798
  • May 13, 2013 12:27pm May 13, 2013 12:27pm
Quoting ForeignTrade
{quote} Exactly my thought DmitryFX. However I entered trade at 1.3047 (just before German news came out, wasn't aware of that....) EU declined but volume info at 1.3022 strengthen my thoughts that they were heavily buying. (Previous my instinct would close the trade at a loss exactly on 1.3021, but now mind is reversing...) So I let it ride and I will take profit at 1.3100 Sorry no charts,figuring out how to do that easily.
This trade is closed at a loss of 60 pips....
Have to study the system again (and put tighter stop losses)
It's what they call a learningmoment
FT
How is your EU trade going DmitryFX?
  • #48,799
  • May 13, 2013 2:55pm May 13, 2013 2:55pm
Beware of a bounce at 0.9915 - 0.9875 area professor. That is where I expect a reversal on this, it could be a sudden one or might accumulate and wait for the beginning of the new month.


Quoting okanemici
Thanks Emmanuel, Here is my second trade.Looks promising , didn't want to miss it. 0.9915 target is good for audusd.Then I will look if it reverses from there.I guess usd would be a little stronger than cad, so audusd is a better choice than audcad for now. Regards, {quote} {image}

Quoting traderathome
AU Short Trade: Entered short trade #1, Classic. Well, sort of. It would have been a Classic if SM had not moved the price up so high, but after a quick and heavy selloff, SM promptly hiked the price right back up and even higher than the selloff started from. So, the entry was an intended Classic, but SM gave me some extra pips higher for this entry. If SM moves price to upper whole number area, increases trading while PVSRA indicates they are bears, I intend to add another short. {image}
  • #48,800
  • Edited 3:31pm May 13, 2013 2:57pm | Edited 3:31pm
EU Comment

The Day chart recent Double Top formation bodes well for PA to achieve the H&S neckline 200 pips below the current price. At that point the H&S becomes a valid formation with a target that is 1,000 pips further down (exact amount depends on where PA breaks down thru the neckline).
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