Draghi's bullshit statements won't make the trend change.. like i said before, the target is 1.518 area
Ichimoku Technical Sessions 2013
- #744
- May 10, 2013 4:40am May 10, 2013 4:40am
- | Commercial User | Joined Jul 2012 | 2,049 Posts
Hey Allison you said that I should post evidence..... hope this is what you wanted to see... some of us really do know Ichimoku by heart
Wonderful job ! perfect entry, now let's see how long you can ride it out
Congradulations
Looking at the EUR vs CAD chart above on the 4 hour time frame you will see that after price broke the Kumo on the downside price retraced and hit the Kumo on 5/5. After bouncing on the Kumo resistance price again retraced and hit the bottom of the Kumo which was also in line with the 50% Fib retracement. Expecting this level to hold I entered a short position right at the bottom of the Kumo. I usually have different ideas about stop losses so depending on the distance of the stop loss I will either do a few things when setting a stop loss. First will be a technical stop loss such as a support and resistance level, fractal level, MA, prior candle high or low or Kijun if I have it plotted. I determine which stop loss I will use based off of the distance and the strength of the trend. Sometimes technical stop losses are to far for my liking and if the market is trending then I set a 20 pip stop loss on Kumo breaks or fractal breaks. Kumo and Fractal breaks usually do not retrace 20 pips unless the trade is not going to work out. Sometimes it's the right trading spot but too early. Ok well back to the trade! Where was I? After the Kumo rejected price I had my target level set at the next fractal level low and you can see that price closed smack dab on that fractal support level. There I took my profit being Friday and now I will look to re-enter this trade if price breaks or retraces back to the fractal support level and look for the second price target set at the next fractal low support level.
Now you may notice that my Kumo is longer than your Kumo or thicker and also my Kijun, Tenkan and Chikou are absent. To understand the different ways that I trade Ichimoku then please visit some of my sites mainly my youtube site at: http://www.youtube.com/user/ChaosTrader63
You can also find me on Forexstreet.net, Tradingview.com and StockTwits.com
I have trades posted on all of these sites. Happy trading and God bless!
Here is some analysis of the EUR vs USD on 5/8/13 that I made based off of the resistance of the Kumo. While many investors where expecting the EUR vs USD to continue long I was b predicting the pair to fall because of the resistance of the Kumo. But even if you take the Kumo out you will see good ole S&R at the fractal levels preventing price moving upwards. Now price did drop and may not drop to my expected range and will make another attempt to break this resistance level. Here's what I wrote and posted on other sites;
Looking at the EUR vs USD on the Daily time-frame we can see where price has attempted 3 times to break the resistance of the Kumo cloud and has so far to this point failed. What makes me believe that it is ready to break that resistance now? Not much! From the swing high @ 1.37000 to the swing low @ 1.27709 I have drawn the Fibs and the resistance of the Kumo lines up with the 50% retracement level giving me more reason to think that this resistance level may hold. Price is also having a tough time breaking the resistance of the 100 SMA which is the blue line on the chart. Even though the 100 period SMA is not pointing downwards it has progressed from the upward slope to a more horizontal level and may be turning over. Unless price can break these levels of resistance I'll keep my bias to the downside. A close above 1.31841 may get me riding the bulls! Have a great trading day and God bless!
There have been so many very good trading opportunities using the Ichimoku system that I am going to go over just a few that I have noticed or traded. Starting with the chart above featuring USD vs JPY you can see where price has bounced off of the Kumo for a Kumo Bounce entry. This Kumo Bounce is also in confluence with the 100 SMA which gives even more support and confidence of a long position. I like to enter on a few setups and they are Kumo Bounce, Kumo Break or Fractal Break. I do not enter or use the Tenkan, Kijun or Chikou. I'm only using the Kumo for market sentiment and S&R. Now if I am teaching someone the system then I teach every element. Since I have been trading this system for about 10 yrs I have found ways that I am profitable with and like using very much.
Back to the trade you will see my prophet target set at the monthly fractal low because it is the most recent S&R level that I have found for prophet. All SL's, Entries and Targets are based off of good ole S&R. A beginner who masters S&R could be very successful and profitable in my honest opinion but hey what do I know!
Opportunity # 2 features USD vs CHF. I should mention that I trade the 4 hour time-frame and use the daily for sentiment and S&R levels. Now to the trade at hand! If you would have taken that first Kumo BREAKOUT to the down side you would have lost that trade. One reason that i would not have made that breakout trade is because the 100 SMA is sloping and pointing upwards showing the momentum to be long. Now where I show the Kumo Breakout and the Fractal Break this is the entry point that I am looking at. A Kumo and Fractal break together is a strong setup for my trading style. The chart speaks for itself. I keep this very simple and basic. Nothing to look at 5 and 6 times and then get confused if you should enter or not. Support and resistance levels and that my friends is all! The market has a memory and will revert back to these levels. At these levels the market must decide to either observe or violate these levels. Violate i trade and observe I trade. If you miss the first Kumo and Fractal breakout then you could enter on the first prophet level which is also a fractal breakout. Finally you can see the prophet level at the last fractal resistance level. Price has broken that level and is consolidating above that level. What will the market do next?
Now on to the 3rd trade setup which features the NZD vs USD. Many things on this chart support the trading philosophy that I am showing here. First before we mention the trade at hand let's look at the most recent Kumo break to the downside. If you would have taken this trade based off of the Kumo breakout then where would your first target be? It would be at the prior fractal low! Well when price broke out of the Kumo it went to the next support level which was the prior fractal low. At this level price retraced and went all the way back to the Kumo. The Kumo is a resistance level at this point so we trade the Kumo Bounce and we ride this trade to our first target which will be that fractal level again. At the Kumo bounce level there was also a level that price observed which was our 100 SMA. Now if you didn't get in on the bounce then you could enter the trade again on the break of the fractal level low with a tight stop at 20 pips. Now price is continuing downward to our next fractal support level so again this speaks for itself.
One more trade to wear you out with featuring the GBP vs JPY on the 4 hour time frame. Price is above the Kumo so we know automatically we are going long so where is the opportunity. There is no Kumo breakout so now look to the next fractal level. On the chart you see the first fractal breakout with a stop loss at the most recent fractal low. Price broke that level and then has made a minor pullback creating another fractal level. When price breaks this most recent level then we can enter again if we have not entered yet. Our final target is the monthly fractal low resistance point.
Hopefully you see what I am showing and getting at here with this simple trading using the Kumo as S&R for breakouts, SL, and target levels along with fractal levels. Happy trading traders and God bless!
IchiTrader63, thank you for your posts!
Here is the chart of Gold. Until the weekend I was looking for sell-signal, but there was not. Now I put the 100 SMA like you and I see why there was no signal
But now - the prise under 100 SMA and Kumo, there is a bounce to Kumo, BUT 100 SMA is slopping UP. May be 1-2 days range and then it will be clear?
Here is the chart of Gold. Until the weekend I was looking for sell-signal, but there was not. Now I put the 100 SMA like you and I see why there was no signal
But now - the prise under 100 SMA and Kumo, there is a bounce to Kumo, BUT 100 SMA is slopping UP. May be 1-2 days range and then it will be clear?
I am in this EUR vs CAD trade at the moment! I entered this trade where you can see the green circle at the resistance point @ 1.31325. Like is mentioned in a previous post of the pair I would enter this trade again if I could get a bounce off of the resistance point as shown. After seeing the long wick candle at the resistance point that was my que to enter the market with my stop slightly above the wick of that candle. Keep the stop tight because i have noticed that if a pair is going to move in your favor at a good location then rarely does it retrace higher than the previous candle. Now don't hold that as gospel! The pair has spiked down for 56 pips but has retraced and I am now at 21 pips. Looks like there is minor support at the fractal level @ 1.30800 also a psychological support. The pair is 166 pips from the 100 SMA which is not to far for more movement. Happy trading all and God bless!
I am going to post a few opportunities that I am looking at starting with this chart of the GBP vs USD. Looking at the 4 hour time frame we can see where price has previously broken below the Kumo for a Kumo Breakout. Price didn't move far before retracing right back to the bottom of the Kumo which you will see often so if you miss a breakout you can usually expect a pullback to that level for re-entry. Now even if you miss the pullback to the Kumo price has mad a fractal support level that is in the verge of being broken as we speak. if this candle closes below the fractal support level then we can enter the trade short. If the candle closes to far below the fractal level then I'll wait for a pullback to that level again and then enter the trade. You can see my target levels on the chart. I explain better talking instead of typing cause to much info to relay. From the looks of things this candle is pressing on to far and I'll look for a pullback later.
Looking at the Daily chart this pair is bearish and you can see the Kumo making a nice flat top which will be a strong resistance point in the future. I wanted you to notice how price pulled back to the 50% fib retracement level and then went back down. That level is represented by the Kumo flat top therefore when you look at a chart you do not need to draw fib levels in because you will always see the 50% level represented by the Kumo. You'll see it in many charts but don't just take my word for it, find them yourself and see. I have a few more opportunities to post so I will get to them. Have a great trading day and God bless!
Hope I'm not Hi Jacking this thread!!!!
Here is the EUR vs USD! Many people just want to remain bullish with this pair but I do not find a reason to do so at this point. On this chart above which is the daily time frame price is below the Kumo and until it goes above the Kumo my bias is bearish. Also price is below the 100 SMA which is a resistance level also. If price breaks the 100 SMA and the Kumo then we think long. Now I am waiting for price to close below the fractal support level @ 1.29528 to trigger a short opportunity. If price doesn't break this level then we don't trade! Lets look at the 4 hour time frame which is my trading time frame.
You can see the fractal support level @ 1.29528 and this is the level we want to see broken. Now our trade may not transpire but we set it up based on the bias of the pair so we are expecting a short opportunity. This level could also hold and no trade will develop. Levels that I mention to be broken are not ment to be broken asap but rather soon. If price retraces off of this level and later returns then it could still be a level to enter the market and we'll know that it's a level we need to be aware of since price couldn't break it. That's speaking future reference! Now short term with a break we can see Kumo Shadows representing support levels and we have to be careful at these levels. Price may bounce at these levels but if price gets past these levels you can see my long term analysis. I keep this simple with all support and resistance. Have a great trading day and God bless!
One last thing! The EUR vs CAD trade may be consolidating a little bit on the 4 hour time frame but if you look at this daily chart you will notice the bottom of the Kumo is holding as a resistance area. This is keeping me in the trade. So always look to your daily for bias and S&R and that will help you tons. This trade already made me 150 pips last week and now on the re-enter it's stalling but I'll hold with confidence of the Kumo Resistance. Have a great and blessed trading day! I think I've said enough for a while! Thanks traders!