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Sonic R. System

  • #48,481
  • Edited 7:46pm May 9, 2013 7:09pm | Edited 7:46pm
Quoting DmitryFX
Finally I have closed series of EU short's I have made 1228 pips from 11 trades. It was finished with success but I don't want to repeat it again The reasons are very simple: 1-I spent 9 trading days for it. Emotionally it was hard days without profits. 2-11 trades were consist 10 Scouts and 1 Classical SonicR setup. 53.3% of overall profit is from only 1 Classical setup. {image}
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1368128503

DmitryFX,

Your post is a very important one for many here to learn from.
I have many of such trade charts going back to 2009 and 2010 when I started grid trading.
On you chart, I see you use Multiple Entries and Single Exit.
Although the total amount of pips collected looks atttractive, the return is very different when we look at R:R.

To make money, we need to be in the market. This is my belief.
We must know the market type we trade in and then decide on the entry and exit method.

Just lookin at your chart posted above, I will suggest you consider Multiple Exits instead of one Single Exit.
At those stage where you have proftable positions, exit those profitable ones. Re-enter again when price goes back to those exited trades.
You keep doing this as market goes Up and Down within a range. There will be times when market will breakout in your favour, that is when you will ride on...
There will be times when market goes completely against you, this when the market type change. You will have to cut losses.
But over a longer time trading, the results will be good when we know the market type and we know when to cut loss.

I have one AU trade running and I hope Sonic does not object when I share here the way I do ME/ME trading for now.

I am still studying this PVSRA experiment very closely and I hope to be able to use this PVSRA thingy as another way to use as trigger for me to add-in positions for my ME/ME trading.

For the record, I am not against PVSRA experiment. I hope this is clear to all followers of this thread. I am all for postive energy and when people show respect for one another with equality.

Thank you.

Kind regards,

EMMANUEL
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #48,482
  • May 9, 2013 8:11pm May 9, 2013 8:11pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} UJ Short Trade: Added short trades #2, #3, and #4, Scouts. The MMs went on a rip roaring stop hunt ahead of JPY high impact coming in early next Asian session. M1 PVSRA confirms extremely high trading began near end of pump and continues while price remains in upper half number area, indicating the MMs are extreme bears that have driven the price up to unload longs/add shorts. {image}
UJ Short Trade:

Added short trade #5, Scout. M1 PVSRA shows the MMs moved price above 3/4 S&R and increased trading, indicating they are bears moving price higher to short.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: may 2013 - 083.png Size: 36 KB
  • #48,483
  • May 9, 2013 8:28pm May 9, 2013 8:28pm
Quoting spitt
{quote} Hello TAH, I am still somewhat confused about your GJ trade. You have entered at a bottom formation in May 2-3 for short. The PVSRA shows the MMs are bulls and the trade went up 394 pips. Your total draw down on the first 11 entries is currently 3084 pips. Is there something I am missing? {image}
If you want to know the history of the trade and the comments made at each entry, you have only to go back thru the links and view each posting.
  • #48,484
  • May 9, 2013 9:23pm May 9, 2013 9:23pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} UJ Short Trade: Added short trade #5, Scout. M1 PVSRA shows the MMs moved price above 3/4 S&R and increased trading, indicating they are bears moving price higher to short. {image}

Possible...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ujmonthly.jpg Size: 76 KB
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #48,485
  • Edited 10:20pm May 9, 2013 9:53pm | Edited 10:20pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} UJ Short Trade: Added short trade #5, Scout. M1 PVSRA shows the MMs moved price above 3/4 S&R and increased trading, indicating they are bears moving price higher to short. {image}
Adding a postion without considering of price action or waves is not a clever move to me..
especially many scouts are under water..

Isn't it better to wait for the price to turn and ride it down.. we make/loss money with price.. not volume..

We are retail trader not institutional.. our funds should be allocated somewhat better managed..

I am in good green in with Jpy long... In stead of waiting/hoping the price to fall, I ride with the mkt up first..


Sonic
  • #48,486
  • May 9, 2013 9:56pm May 9, 2013 9:56pm
Quoting sonicdeejay
{quote} Adding a postion without considering of price action is not a clever move to me.. especially many scouts are under water.. Isn't it better to wait for the price to turn and ride it down.. we make/loss money with price.. not volume.. We are retail trader not institutional.. our funds should be allocated somewhat better managed.. I am in good green in with Jpy long... In stead of waiting/hoping the price to fall, I ride with the mkt up first.. Sonic
Hey Sonic what do you think of this graph... Just curious when i should take position using this method.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzd.PNG Size: 59 KB
Creditors have better memories than debtors.
  • #48,487
  • May 9, 2013 10:00pm May 9, 2013 10:00pm
Quoting sonicdeejay
{quote} Adding a postion without considering of price action is not a clever move to me.. especially many scouts are under water.. Isn't it better to wait for the price to turn and ride it down.. we make/loss money with price.. not volume.. We are retail trader not institutional.. our funds should be allocated somewhat better managed.. I am in good green in with Jpy long... In stead of waiting/hoping the price to fall, I ride with the mkt up first.. Sonic
Fully agreed.

Someone wise once said that retail traders make money in a ranging market. Buy low, sell high. Even if their initial positions go under water, they can average down and price will eventually go up to their entry price. But in a strong trending market, where it may be wiser to buy high, sell low, averaging down will kill retail traders who trade like that.
  • #48,488
  • May 9, 2013 10:44pm May 9, 2013 10:44pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Possible... {image}
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1368152581

Mr Scott,

There is high probability and we need to see how the remaining weeks will trade.
This May month candle closing will be one important factor I am looking at.
The talk is if UJ closes above between 99.50 and 101.50, we have to wait and see.
Some see this as the Abe & Aso effect working the Japanese economy.

Kind regards,
EMMANUEL
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #48,489
  • May 9, 2013 10:51pm May 9, 2013 10:51pm
Hi, thanks for this thread, i have benefitted from it over the past week with a net gain of more than a hundred pips.

I just want to ask the question about volume analysis. As mentioned before, the volume indicator provided by brokers shows the "number" of orders and not the lot sizes traded.

I am sort of beginning to understand the notion behind PVSRA that high volumes at wave peaks seem to be bearish, and at wave bottoms indicates bullishness.

On the other hand, would it be hence fair to say that a large move with a low volume is indicative of big players placing a few orders but with very significant lot sizes - also indicating that such orders are placed by the powerful MMs?
  • #48,490
  • May 9, 2013 10:54pm May 9, 2013 10:54pm
Quoting sonicdeejay
{quote} Adding a postion without considering of price action or waves is not a clever move to me.. especially many scouts are under water.. Isn't it better to wait for the price to turn and ride it down.. we make/loss money with price.. not volume.. We are retail trader not institutional.. our funds should be allocated somewhat better managed.. I am in good green in with Jpy long... In stead of waiting/hoping the price to fall, I ride with the mkt up first.. Sonic
I just confuse now between the original and TAH sonic?Both Prof. Please with my respect. Thanks.
Smile, Breath, and Go slowly
  • #48,491
  • Edited 11:19pm May 9, 2013 10:56pm | Edited 11:19pm
Quoting sonicdeejay
{quote} Adding a postion without considering of price action or waves is not a clever move to me.. especially many scouts are under water.. Isn't it better to wait for the price to turn and ride it down.. we make/loss money with price.. not volume.. We are retail trader not institutional.. our funds should be allocated somewhat better managed.. I am in good green in with Jpy long... In stead of waiting/hoping the price to fall, I ride with the mkt up first.. Sonic
PVSRA Does Not Exclude PA or Waves

Sonic,

Your concern is that adding without consideration of price action (or waves) is not a clever move, and apparently also that volume is being substituted instead.

I suppose that after five weeks still some folks don't understand the analysis for which the acroynm PVSRA stands, so let me explain it again.

PVSRA stands for Price, Volume, S&R Analysis. As the acroynm indicates, Price (hence PA and PA waves) is indeed a part of the analysis. So is volume. So is S&R. It is an analysis that uses all three of the most valuable datum in trading, all together in concert with one another, but just in a different manner. For example, consider the PA waves we use for the Classic setup. These PA waves are what price is doing in and around the time we are concerned about, and it is the form of these waves that we focus on. In PVSRA we are concerned with everything price is doing in and around the times notable volume changes occur, not only PA waves, but PA thrusts to/thru important S&R levels where if heavier trading then occurs, the MMs reveal that they are bulls or bears.

With a Classic trade, a proper setup with a good PA wave does not guarantee good results. Some good setups run well and some do not. With a good looking Classic long setup, for example, it is possible the MMs are actually bears, and the setup will not run well. With PVSRA we can far more reliably determine if the MMs are bulls or bears, but we can never know when they will cease moving price in one direction and initiate their "run for profits" in the other direction. At the least, however, we can use PVSRA to be more assured we are trading Classics in the right direction. We also can use PVSRA to be more assured we are trading Scouts in the right direction, based on what the MMs are and not the direction they currently happen to be moving the price. Remember, bull MMs can and do fabricate bearish PA. Bear MMs can and do fabricate bullish PA. We should want to be on the same side as the MMs, regardless of the current direction they are pushing the price. Yes, the most conservative application of the results of PVSRA will be to trade based on what the MM are, and only when they do start to move price in that same direction!

How effective is this form of analysis? So far, five week running now, the PVSRA form of analysis is highly reliable, perhaps the most reliable form of analysis. Time will tell.

It is human nature that people resist change. No one needs to adopt PVSRA. I will continue to use it until I have experienced the depth and breadth of it, and if it proves it's worthiness, I will harness it.

As I said in a post just earlier, perhaps the best way to use the results of PVSRA (are MMs bulls or bears?) is to wait until it looks like they are finished building their own positions and are turning the price. So, if the MMs are bears, then we wait until the "run for profits" downwards starts, maybe wait until the first proper Classic short setup. For now, I am experimenting with PVSRA, so I am not all that "conservative" with applying the results of PVSRA. Indeed, I am pushing some limits, but my demonstration of PVSRA is totally transparent for all to see just how the trades come out. And I am doing it this way for a purpose. In the end, when we say how to do the analysis and how to apply the results of the analysis, no one will be able to refute it.


-tah
  • #48,492
  • May 9, 2013 10:59pm May 9, 2013 10:59pm
Quoting nathaniel
{quote} Fully agreed. Someone wise once said that retail traders make money in a ranging market. Buy low, sell high. Even if their initial positions go under water, they can average down and price will eventually go up to their entry price. But in a strong trending market, where it may be wiser to buy high, sell low, averaging down will kill retail traders who trade like that.
Nathaniel,

I am so glad to read your post here. I fully agree with you on what you wrote. I sense you are the discerning type of investor / trader and knows how to trade the market.
I have a serious concern seeing so many of the position building trades shared here and a total disregard for the proper understanding of market structure and how to trade the different market types.

Once again, thanks for sounding out this advice to all.

Kind regards,
EMMANUEL
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #48,493
  • May 9, 2013 11:12pm May 9, 2013 11:12pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} PVSRA Does Not Exclude PA or Waves Sonic, Your concern is that adding without consideration of price action (or waves) is not a clever move, and apparently also that volume is being substituted instead. I suppose that after five weeks still some folks don't understand the analysis for which the acroynm PVSRA stands, so let me explain it again. PVSRA stands for Price, Volume, S&R Analysis. As the acroynm indicates, Price (hence PA and PA waves) is indeed a part of the analysis. So is volume. So is S&R. It is an analysis that uses all three...
Those PVSRA charts seem to be missing the S&R component.
  • #48,494
  • Edited 11:54pm May 9, 2013 11:21pm | Edited 11:54pm
You are adding Shorts as the price advance... as you show from the chart..
Attached Image


It doesn't look like PVSRA to me.. Price Action doesn't show bearish.. We go through all the trouble (such as spending time reading chart, so that we can have better precise entry). So, patience play a big part for retail traders like us. Since you are very sure that price will decline soon, why don't we wait for the price to turn and add shorts on it way down...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpym15.png Size: 65 KB


You are simply adding positions (just like double down in gambling) and waiting for the price to turn. Your draw down will grow bigger and bigger.. You may be right 99% of the time.. 4 weeks , 10 weeks or even a year, it will prove to be profitable...
but when 1% of wrong occurs,all of the winning will get wipe out due to over-leveraging nature of stacking up the positions as the price turn against you...

I too am adding positions and averaging, as all can see my daily trade records for the whole week.. but adding shorts as the price rises or adding long as the price drops with consider price action or waves are way too risky a d impulsive for traders like us..

You are my great friend, mentor and partner, astute trader. The only thing that lack of is patience and enormous Ego.
If you want self satisfaction or satisfy your ego, trading is not place.. Sir.


Sincerely,
Sonic
  • #48,495
  • May 9, 2013 11:23pm May 9, 2013 11:23pm
Quoting KengLeobard
{quote} I just confuse now between the original and TAH sonic?Both Prof. Please with my respect. Thanks.
KengLeobard,

I am visitor here in this thread. I have no permanent residency here. LOL.
Let me share with you what original SonicR means to me.
I only recognise what sonicdeejay says as the original because it is the way how the market should be traded using the 34EMA and 89EMA.
To me post#1 has the original key ingredient of sonicR and it had evolved along with sonicdeejay whom I will follow along.

I know Sonic to be a kind hearted and caring person. He is now an investor and fund manager of other people's money. That is what I see as progress in Sonic as a real person in life, as a trader and as the owner of this thread which I followed since the day it started.
I do not mean any disrespect if I do not address sonicdeejay as 'Master'. My religion forbids me to call anyone Master other than the Holy Trinity.
Sonic has earned my respect many times over. He is a leading example of a good person and a good trader, an image which some should emulate.

There is no TAH sonicR. TAH has hijacked this thread and corrupted this thread with his egocentric maniac behaviour. He is walking all over other's mind with his two very dirty feet. I do not follow such a person who hides behind his pseudo name.

Sorry that I use your post to speak up for SonicR and for Sonicdeejay.

With kind regards,
EMMANUEL
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #48,496
  • May 9, 2013 11:33pm May 9, 2013 11:33pm
Quoting foxybunny
{quote} Those PVSRA charts seem to be missing the S&R component.
foxybunny, my charts have always had the most important S&R on them; the Levels.
  • #48,497
  • May 9, 2013 11:35pm May 9, 2013 11:35pm
Quoting foxybunny
{quote} Those PVSRA charts seem to be missing the S&R component.
maybe you forgot to read manual!
Price Is The Best Indicator Itself.
  • #48,498
  • Edited May 10, 2013 12:10am May 9, 2013 11:42pm | Edited May 10, 2013 12:10am
Quoting sonicdeejay
You are adding Shorts as the price advance... as you show from the chart.. {image} It doesn't look like PVSRA to me.. Price Action doesn't show bearish.. We go through all the trouble (such as spending time reading chart, so that we can have better precise entry). So, patience play a big part for retail traders like us. Since you are very sure that price will decline soon, why don't we wait for the price to turn and add shorts on it way down... {image} You are simply adding positions (just like double down in gambling) and waiting for the price...
Sonic,

You are missing the point. Bear MMs put on bullish PA. Bull MMs put on bearish PA. Conservative trading will be to wait and trade once Bear MMs have finally initiated bearish PA, and once Bull MMs have finally initiate bullilsh PA, i.e., their "runs for profit". Aggressive trading is to build positions along with them before they reverse and initiate their "runs for profit".

I don't know why this is so hard for some to understand, that bear MMs can hike price to add shorts, over and over and over until they finally start their "run for profits". Trading aggressively is simply doing what the MMs are doing, and it requires trading very light. But it is no more risk than any other method of trading, because you are doing exactly what the MMs are doing! You don't have to wait for bearish PA to start building a short position! The MMs certainly don't!

You call it lack of patience and enormous ego. I call it exploring the fruit of dedication and perseverance. Sonic, you are an engineer. If you have "engineered" something (for lack of better terminology) and you know it to be correct, and yet others come to you with all sorts of unfounded questions, and doubts and even ridicule, are you going to cave in and tear up your work? Or are you going to stand firm? And what will you say to those that proclaim you to have enormous ego because you do not tear up your work and agree with them that it is garbage?

Consider this Sonic, if something undeniably effective and reliable comes out of all of this, and for the improvement of the Sonic R. System, everyone will want a piece of the action. In the meantime, while the work is being done, some folks are just standing on the sidelines shouting out their ridicule. If the project fails, they will puff out their chests and proclaim, " I told you so!". I am the one taking the risks. I have asked no one else to do so. I am the one being ridiculed. I have asked no one else to come to my defense. Yet, if the project is a success, I share it with all.

Am I communicating?

-tah
  • #48,499
  • May 9, 2013 11:45pm May 9, 2013 11:45pm
please forgive my bad Enligsh! so,where can i find Chinese manual?
thanks very much!
  • #48,500
  • May 9, 2013 11:54pm May 9, 2013 11:54pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} Sonic, You are missing the point. Bear MMs put on bullish PA. Bull MMs put on bearish PA. Conservative trading will be to wait and trade once Bear MMs have finally initiated bearish PA, and once Bull MMs have finally initiate bullilsh PA, i.e., their "runs for profit". Aggressive trading is to build positions along with them before they reverse and initiate their "runs for profit". I don't know why this is so hard for some to understand, that bear MMs can hike price to add shorts, over and over and over until they finally start their...
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